Andruw Jones

[TooLiveBrew]

This thread's on page 7, and I can't even remember the last time Andruw got some pogokat love! Where is it pogo? If anyone would want Jones - and at a huge, long-term contract - it's him!

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[JJHardy7]

The Brewers thought Grant Balfour and Greg Aquino would be able to handle it as well. They make mistakes. Many, many scouts suggested that Braun was not a MLB 3b.

 

I don't think comparing Balfour and Aquino to Braun makes a ton of logic. I think it's different since Braun was a high draft pick and the Brewers have worked with him since the took him in the draft. Balfour and Aquino may not have been put in the best position to succeed, but there are tons of Balfours and Aquinos in baseball -- there may not be a lot of people who can do what Braun does with a bat.

 

Counsell played a lot of 3b when he replaced Braun in games -- It's not as if we never saw Counsell again once Braun hit the scene.

 

I understand your point, but I think the Brewers would've hurt quite a bit offensively if Counsell were to play everyday starting at 3B.

 

We can get a guy like Rolen, or we can get a guy like Jones that could replace Hall and then have Hall replace Braun -- the fact that DM is exploring both probably gives him more leverage.

 

I think the Brewers know a lot of Braun's ability to play 3B. I know the Brewers may a mistake with evaluating Braun, but at this stage it seems if Braun is moved it will be because the Brewers acquired a 3B. Hall doesn't look like he will be moved to 3B -- from the quotes he's had, but that could be misleading.

 

I my opinion, defense is hard to calculate. There are errors, but that doesn't tell the entire story. I really don't believe having Counsell for the entire year at 3B would've only cost the Brewers a few games. I really don't believe that and I could be wrong. I think Braun was at least a 10 game improvement in the win column for the Brewers, but that's my opinion and there really isn't a clear answer to that.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think comparing Balfour and Aquino to Braun makes a ton of logic.

 

No one is comparing Braun to Balfour/Aquino. I am just saying Yost wouldn't have put Balfour in a high-leverage situation had he thought Balfour couldn't handle it. The question is not whether or not they were wrong about Braun playing 3b, the question is when do you cut your losses.

 

there may not be a lot of people who can do what Braun does with a bat.

 

There are less people that play 3b as bad as he does.

 

I think the Brewers would've hurt quite a bit offensively if Counsell were to play everyday starting at 3B.

 

This is a strawman argument. No one on this board has ever suggested playing Counsell everyday at 3b.

 

Hall doesn't look like he will be moved to 3B -- from the quotes he's had, but that could be misleading.

 

Just the other day the Pirates GM stated emphatically that Jason Bay was untouchable -- but yet he seems very touchable. I am sure that a lot of what you hear from DM about Braun playing 3b, is done to help him with leverage in trades.

 

I my opinion, defense is hard to calculate. There are errors, but that doesn't tell the entire story.

 

There is a lot more stats used to evaluate defense than counting errors. Every stat that I have seen has pretty put Ryan Braun at the far bottom of its list. You may be right that the precision of Braun's butchering may not be ever known, but as far as the entire story, Chapter 1, it is entitled "Ryan Braun is a poor fielding 3b.

 

I really don't believe having Counsell for the entire year at 3B would've only cost the Brewers a few games.

 

Well -- Again, this is a strawman argument -- no one is endorsing replacing Counsell with Braun -- I suspect though that a team with Braun in LF and Counsell at 3b would win more games than a team with Gross/Dillon in LF and Braun at 3b. Is there any way this could be easily simulated?

 

Really it boils down to risk/reward for me -- signing a guy like Jones, putting Hall at 3b and Braun in LF seems like a much smaller gamble than hoping Braun magically becomes a league average 3b next year.

[JJHardy7]

No one is comparing Braun to Balfour/Aquino. I am just saying Yost wouldn't have put Balfour in a high-leverage situation had he thought Balfour couldn't handle it. The question is not whether or not they were wrong about Braun playing 3b, the question is when do you cut your losses.

 

I think you are comparing the way the Brewers handled Balfour/Aquino to Braun. I'm not saying you are comparing their ability. I think you clearly compared how they were handled with the Brewers (poor in your mind - which is fine). I am saying that I believe they are completely different since two are low level relief pitchers and one is a high draft pick. I don't see how Balfour/Aquino apply to this situation. There is a long list of relief pitchers who haven't worked out with major league teams for a variety of reasons. Evaluating a veteran relief pitcher is different than a player drafted high in the first round and the following "grooming" process in the minors.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm not saying you are comparing their ability. I think you clearly compared how they were handled with the Brewers (poor in your mind - which is fine).

 

No -- the only point I am trying to make (and perhaps not well) -- is that the Brewers had expectations that Braun could play third, just like they had expectations that Aquino could pitch in MLB -- They just turned out to be wrong -- I am not saying they were handled poorly (Aquino/Braun) -- really I am saying just because DM knows more about MLB than all of us, doesn't mean he doesn't swing and miss a lot.

[JJHardy7]

No -- the only point I am trying to make (and perhaps not well) -- is that the Brewers had expectations that Braun could play third, just like they had expectations that Aquino could pitch in MLB -- They just turned out to be wrong -- I am not saying they were handled poorly (Aquino/Braun) -- really I am saying just because DM knows more about MLB than all of us, doesn't mean he doesn't swing and miss a lot.

 

I guess I can see your point on the MLB level. My point is that the Brewers have done a pretty good job with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, etc. being as good as advertised and they've projected them into the right positions for the most part (I guess you could say the jury is still out on Weeks in some circles). I'm using that logic to say the scouting department and the team knows what they're doing in regards to this when comparing it to this cample. They invested a lot in Braun when they selected him and Aquino was a throw in on a trade. Aquino is not a bad pitcher. He was clearly better than most RPs in Nashville based on pure stuff (according to those in the bullpen). He just hasn't put it together yet. If anything, the Brewers have a good arm in Aquino, but who knows if it will ever translate to performance...but he was only a throw in on a trade.

[Fatter than Joey]

My point is that the Brewers have done a pretty good job with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, etc. being as good as advertised and they've projected them into the right positions for the most part

 

Agreed -- but that doesn't mean they messed up with Braun -- I am not being negatively critical -- or saying that they suck, rather that they are going to make some miscalculations

[JJHardy7]

They could have miscalculated Braun, but I think in the sample size (it is small) they've done quite well. They moved Hart around when needed and it looks like that was the right move. The Brewers hopefully have the Braun thing pegged out right or it could have a severe impact on drafting LaPorta -- I know he's a few years away, but if they're wrong with Braun then Braun, Hart, or Hall may have to be traded in 2009. It'd be easy to trade Hall, but I think he does have a lot of value in the fact he can play multiple positions.

 

Trying to get back to the topic -- I apologize -- I'd love to bring in Jones for a year or two and to be honest I don't care if we'd have to give him 15 million per year. It's short term and if it flops we'd still be able to move him at the deadline in 2009 for a team that would still have hopes on him. I really don't see Jones ever playing in Milwaukee unless we give him a long term deal -- which is unlikely. The longer he is a free agent though the better the Brewers chances.

[TooLiveBrew]

I could really see Andruw landing in SF, for whatever that's worth.

[JJHardy7]

I could really see Andruw landing in SF, for whatever that's worth.

I think the Giants would be willing to give him a long term deal. I'm probably in the minority that I think signing Jones to a 1 or 2 year deal would be a great move. I don't think he's hit the wall as much as it's been posted here. If you liked Andruw Jones in his prime, he's not that far away from my opinion. It's somewhat sad that there are posts here about his weight gain and attitude. I don't understand that. Look at what Cabrera in Florida might go for...that is weight gain. Jones is a very good fielder and he may have lost a step, but don't discount his leadership. I've pointed out he's loved in Atlanta and from the players I've talked to with the Braves that's true. I've met Jones a few times and he seems to be a real good guy. I still have a feeling Atlanta might make a late run at him...especially for a year or two.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the Giants would be willing to give him a long term deal.

Exactly my line of thinking. Plus - olbigatory 'Giants are old!' joke - he's young by SF standards. Even if you account for the fact that his age could be off by a year or two or three, he's still got at least 3-ish good years left. If he were to sign with SF, I'd see it a 3-yr. deal at minimum.

 

I'm probably in the minority that I think signing Jones to a 1 or 2 year deal would be a great move.

 

You might well be, and I don't know if I'd agree to say it'd be a "great move," but I'd agree fully that it'd be a great risk. I just don't think it would be with the Crew. The one area we don't lack is SLG. Jones doesn't really help much with OBP, his D would certainly be a (slight?) upgrade, but we need baserunners.

[JJHardy7]

You might well be, and I don't know if I'd agree to say it'd be a "great move," but I'd agree fully that it'd be a great risk. I just don't think it would be with the Crew. The one area we don't lack is SLG. Jones doesn't really help much with OBP, his D would certainly be a (slight?) upgrade, but we need baserunners.

 

I think it would be a great move. It'd give us an OF of Hall/Braun (depending if you move Braun to the OF), Jones, and Hart. I would take that over almost any team in all of baseball. A one or two year deal is a great move, but not a great risk. A great risk is signing an injury prone pitcher (Sheets) to a 4 or 5 year deal at $15 million a year...that is a risk. 2 years $30 million for Jones is not a risk. It's two years and as of now we have plenty of room in 2007 to bring him in and in 2008 if we don't bring Sheets back. His D would be more than a slight upgrade over Hall. His defense is still pretty darn good from the games I saw and was at...and there's nothing wrong with his arm. He'd easily have the strongest arm the Brewers OF has seen in quite some time -- and he turns 31 in April. He's been in the bigs for a long time, but let's please not classify this guy in the same league as other players who are old. He's 30 years old...or 2 years younger than Tori Hunter.

 

The Brewers can't find a guy that is cheap (ie Rolen or Jones), but I think given the possible (although unlikely) chance that he takes a one or two year deal the Brewers should go after it. Jones isn't a player who is 35. He did struggle last year, but I would gladly take Jones for 2 years 30 million. That move alone improves the offense and if Hall moves to 3B and Braun goes to the OF we have Braun, Jones, and Hart. That is an awesome OF.

[PeaveyFury]

Dodgers offer 2 years at 32 Million

 

Not true, says Tony Jackson of the LA Daily News:

 

http://www.insidesocal.com/dodgers/archives/2007/12/couple_of_thing.html

[logan82]

I don't have a problem with a one or two year deal in the neighborhood of $16M per seeing as how we have the money next year and probably won't have to pay to much in 2009, but I also don't hink we need another high SLG low OBP guy on our team. I also don't think Hall will get moved to 3B if it happens so there is no real plus in signing Jones. Hall getting moved to 3B seems to me will vs should. Should Hall get moved to 3B to improve our defense? Probably. Will Hall get moved to 3B to improve our defense? Highly doubtful.

[TheBrewer]

Melvin already specifically stated that it's just as he thought the price for Jones was not in our ballpark.

[PeaveyFury]

Melvin already specifically stated that it's just as he thought the price for Jones was not in our ballpark.

 

He said he 'didn't get the impression that there'd be a fit' or something to that effect. I don't think he's ever mentioned anything about the price, unless I missed a rumor, which is possible.

[Big Reed]

I can't believe the brewers would acquire both Rolen and jones. I have to believe rolen is their #1 target. Rolen is a lot cheaper than jones and adds more value to shore up the infield defense. their hitting skills are close to being a wash. I can't see the brewers winning a bidding war with the Dodgers for jones . All things being equal, I would think jones would pick the Dodgers over the brewers. Although in a fantasy world where the brewers' owner was willing to lose money, having rolen at third with Jones in the outfield would make me very happy. The brewers had a great attendance last year. i would think MR A could see that next year's attendance with the addition of Rolen and /or Jones would be equally high. Could the payroll creep up to $80 million? I'm not sure if the brewers could afford both players, but they certainly could afford at least one of them. Blalock or Eric Chavez come to mind as other alternatives to Rolen. .

[Fatter than Joey]

I can't believe the brewers would acquire both Rolen and jones.

 

Me either -- I suspect that they are a Plan A, and/or Plan B. I suspect if Boras gets a little greedy, DM can tell him to pound sand, and then he gets Rolen. Same with the Cardinals.

[CportBadger]

From MLBTR, Ozzie Guillen is confirming the ChiSox are interested in Andruw.

[Invader3K]

Gee, maybe the Brewers will end up with neither, at the rate this is going.