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Andruw Jones


aracko
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I don't think he'd be willing to do a one year deal as I agree that someone will give him a crazy long term deal. If he would be willing to do a one year, I'd consider going higher than 12 million. I still think he has some big years left in him, and he'd have some serious protection wherever he'd bat in the Brewer line-up.

 

Only a one year deal though, I don't want to possibly risk the chance at paying our core guys down the road. I'd be way more willing to take a chance on a one year deal.

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Scott Boras probably won't do a 1 year deal, but this would be the ideal team for him. He could be a part of a young team busting with talent, and a manager he knows quite well. Also, I believe Bill Hall credited Andruw with some help when he first moved to CF, which would lead me to believe they are friends. And finally, I would be wholeheartedly behind that lineup batting the former leadoff hiter, Kendall, 9th, as the ninth hitter usually only bats ninth once a game.
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He probably won't sign a one year deal, but until he's signed it's still possible. I think if he doesn't get the multi-year he wants he may take a one year deal to up his stock. It may be a small chance, but I'm somewhat surprised he hasn't signed with anyone yet.
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Bill James is predicting Jones will bounce back to hit in the .250 range next year with 30 homers.. That sounds realistic. on the negative side, the braves were very vocal that they would not make an offer to Jones. That suggests to me there are other issues involving Jones than just his batting average.

 

I prefer Jones over Hall. I would have prefered Hunter or Crawford over both players.

 

as a boras client, I doubt he signs for anything less than 4 years. It's not like he's 35 years old. he still has a lot of youth left. I think Jones is worth more than Gary Matthews.

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I just looked at Bill James' projections for all four players next year Big Reed and assuming the projections hold true (big assumption I know) then it looks like Hall would have the best value of all of them.

 

Hall .263/.328/.471/.799/22 HR--will make $4.8 million next year

Hunter .274/.329/.482/.811/27 HR--I have no idea how much he'll make next year but he signed a 5 year $90 million contract so I'll assume it's more than Hall. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Jones .253/.343/.491/.834/34 HR--Again he hasn't signed yet but for what he'll be making compared to Hall I'd rather have Hall.

Crawford .299/.339/.452/.791/13 HR/49 SB--For what it would take to get him from the Rays I'd rather have Hall.

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I would agree Hall would be the cheapest of the 4 players. I'm not so sure he would be the best player. Jones will command at least $12 million a year. Tampa is demanding way too much in trade for Crawford. Hunter was a rather expensive purchase by the Angels. keeping hall allows the brewers to spend their money on other areas of concern - like fixing the roof which always seems to need repairs. hall is a good value for the money he is paid. however, i would prefer one of the brewers' outfielders to be their lead-off hitter and that's not going to be the case with Hall, Hart or La Porta.

 

I could see hall filling the vacated batting spot left by Jenkins. I could see Hall batting 5th or 6th behind hart. I would like to see the hole created by Jenkins' departure being filled by somebody with speed who could bat lead-off. I really don't want to see gross, gwynn or mench elevated to playing full time. But , admittedly, the other choices aren't all that much better.

 

if laporta is projected as the starting leftfielder for 2009, it would be unwise to sign a FA outfielder to a long term contract this year. What are the odds that LaPorta could start in left field in 2008?

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I would think Crawford's OBP would be a little higher, but I would agree with the rest of the predictions. let's be honest. Crawford is not a home run hitter and never will be, so his slugging % and OPS will never meet brewerfans' desires. If a hitter has a low slug%, his OPS is also going to be low no matter what he does to get onbase. having a low OPS is not necessarily a bad thing if the player's role is just to get on base. and with guys like hall, hardy, hart, braun, and Fielder, do the brewers really need another big bopper? I think it would be nice if they added a consistant singles hitter to the mix. And Crawford is definitely consistant.

 

My patience with Weeks being both healthy and consistant is wearing thin. he was healthy and consistant in college and in the minors. Is Miller Park built on top of some toxic waste dump that makes its players more susceptible to injuries? Think about it. Rico Carty, Heisle, Molitor, Ben Mc Donald, Higuera, Sheets, Fingers, Vukovich, Porter, Sheffield, Hammonds, Listache, Plesac, Bando (sick in the head) and on and on. I think we need a full heath inspection of what lies underneath Miller park. The braves were a lot healthier after they left milwaukee. St Louis is also having it's share of injuries. perhaps it's the beer.

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My patience with Weeks being both healthy and consistant is wearing thin. he was healthy and consistant in college and in the minors. Is Miller Park built on top of some toxic waste dump that makes its players more susceptible to injuries? Think about it. Rico Carty, Heisle, Molitor, Ben Mc Donald, Higuera, Sheets, Fingers, Vukovich, Porter, Sheffield, Hammonds, Listache, Plesac, Bando (sick in the head) and on and on. I think we need a full heath inspection of what lies underneath Miller park. The braves were a lot healthier after they left milwaukee. St Louis is also having it's share of injuries. perhaps it's the beer.

Big Reed, I think you're going to really enjoy 2008 from Rickie. His wrist is finally 'cleaned up' from that surgery, and you could see his strong power stroke on full display at the end of 2007. The James projections for him, imho, are a tad cautious:

 

.265/.374/.453/.827

 

I think a large part of what's hindering that projection is Rickie's low BA thus far in MLB. I fully expect that to be a thing of the past, as I suspect it was mostly related to the wrist-issues (wrissues?), like his seeming lack of power. I'd call a .265 BA next year the low end of what to expect from Weeks, and my conservative guess is that he'll be around or north of .270.

 

Not to mention that the projected SLG takes a similar hit. Just adding 10 more points in of OBP, along with another 10 of SLG (I really think Rickie's going to make that James projection look super-cautious) takes him up to roughly an .850 OPS, which is right about where I'm guessing for him in 2008. The obvious question is health, but if we see healthy Rickie like we saw healthy Rickie to close '07, you & I just may not know what to do with ourselves, Reed. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

What are the odds that LaPorta could start in left field in 2008?

Basically zero.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Id trust Peter Gammons over just abotu anybody these days. Thats really exciting - I have been waiting for this forever. Man, If this DOES happen though - I still do not want Billy Hall moving to 3b. Id like an excellent defender in LF, having a DEFENSIVE OF of Hart, Jones, and another top level defender would be just outstanding. I dont want to see Braun learning a new position next year - its going to be our year to win the whole thing.

 

Give me Jeff Francoeur, Matt Kemp, Carlos Quentin, Shane Victorino, or even Jenkins. Granted all might be considered Right fielders, but Hart is versital enough to make it work.

Just give me a guy who can play above average defense in the outfield. Teaming a 3rd guy with good defense along with Hart and Jones would really be exciting.

 

If William Hall cannot play LF, then its time to go back to a Utility role or go to 2nd base and see what Weeks can bring in trade. I think that Weeks and Vargas could get us just about any player on that list of guys above.

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Take it FWIW, but Peter Gammons was on ESPN radio this morning (just after 6:30), and stated that he's hearing Jones will end up in Milwaukee (with Braun moving to LF, which I took to mean Hall goes to 3b).

 

Yeah -- I'd be excited if that happened -- Unless Hall gets traded -- but I would presume, that you are correct.

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Wow.

 

I couldn't imagine how much (or little, I suppose) we could get Jones to take to come here. With Torii's payday and the Sox still looking for a CFer and reportedly not interested in Rowand (or vice versa), I really don't see Jones coming at the relative bargain price that his recent performance justifies. Doug said Boras nixed the idea of a one-year deal. Actually, the thought of Jones on the field doesn't get me excited. I'd expect Hall to have a better year next year than Jones. Jones has the D', but that's declining as well, whereas Billy's is improving. The only exciting thing about this is hearing a "big" name being named with Milwaukee. That still hasn't gotten old.

 

Gammons also wrote that Rolen could end up in Milwaukee - or that it made sense more than anywhere else.

 

Perhaps, then, Jones to CF, Braun to LF, Rolen to 3B, Hall traded for a RP. That's like a rumor^3 - which is still a 0% chance, no worse than the chances of each occurring separately. (Ok, 0% for each is hyperbole, but not by much).

 

If I was in the position to choose, I'd rather find a 3B, keep Hall in CF, than sign Jones.

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