BA Top Prospect lists

[colbyjack]

I don't know what it is, but the top prospect buzz seems to lose its luster each and every year. How many people noticed that Baseball America kicked off their team-by-team lists yesterday, starting with the Braves?

 

Check the link below to follow all of the lists and chats as they are conducted and released:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/organizationtop10/2007/

 

Back to the Braves, they have quite a few big bats at the top of their list. Jordan Schafer kind of came out of nowhere, despite being a high pick a couple of years ago, and is now one of the more exciting prospects in the game (I think he's playing in the AFL this fall). Between him and Gorkys Hernandez, who the Braves just picked up in the Renteria deal, they have a couple of exciting CF prospects, although both are a few years away.

 

The Braves are well-oiled player development machine, and seeing Jason Heyward on their list reminded me just how much I liked him for last June's draft.

[homer]

Well at least we don't have to wait too long to see the Brewer list. They are due up on Nov 26th.

 

And I like Heyward too. Wasn't he the one that they thought was a young Derrick Lee?

[colbyjack]

Heyward drew a lot of Fred McGriff comparisons. I think I'm the only one that gave him the Lee comp:

 

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=667&draftId=5

[lovehate]

Shafer has gotten a lot of pub. (he is having a great year), for some reason I get a Jeremy Reed vibe from him. I think the Braves might deal him while hot, they just got Gorkys, and he's got the higher ceiling.

There does seem to be less buzz than a few years ago, maybe b/c guys are coming up at age 20-21 more often, or skipping the minors like Zimmerman.

 

[homer]

"I think I'm the only one that gave him the Lee comp"

 

Well now you know where I go for all my draft info. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

Interesting comp to Reed lovehate.

 

And thanks Chaka.

 

***BA top prospect list spoiler included***

 

I've learned that the Brewers top 10 prospects when they are revealed on November 26th (or sooner depending on when the print verison hits my mailbox) may look something like this:

 

1. LaPorta

2. Parra

3. Escobar

4. Jeffress

5. Brewer

6. Gillespie

7. Gamel

8. Salome

9. Rogers

10. Cain

 

Bonus, Gindl and Bryson are #11 and 12, a pretty lofty debut for both young players. Top prospect newcomers to the list also include Taylor Green (#17), Nick Tyson (#18) and Luis Pena (#22).

 

Of course the entire top 30 list won't be available until BA's prospect handbook hits the shelves early next year (I believe usually in Feburary), so it will be a while before we're able to officially confirm the rankings past the top 10.

 

I know Mass has been a big proponent of Alcides Escobar, but I think even he would admit that #3 is an awfully high ranking. And what does Gamel have to do to be rated higher? Hit in 60 games straight?

[lovehate]

Thanks for posting this Brewers list Colby. I'm excited about Escobar, not the type of player the org. has produced much of (Santiago Perez was a Padre-joking). I thought Green would be higher with his age, how is his defense rated ?

 

It also looks like the scouts/BA are starting to like Brent Brewer, do you have any idea on Brantley?

[colbyjack]

I wasn't provided the reports, just the names, so I can't tell you how Taylor Green's defense is rated based on those reports, but considering he's a year and a half removed from playing shortstop at Cypress CC, I would guess that he is more than solid at the hot corner after being shifted from second to open the season. Pogo has made a few positive comments about his D' as well.

 

I know the Brewers brass is also very high on Brantley. Like the people here that really like him by following the box scores, the Brewers really like his approach at the plate and the speed element of his game, which I think was exhibited when they bumped him to AA this past summer. For such a young kid he has such a very good grasp on the finer points of the game which has allowed him to have less of a learning curve in the pros, and should allow him to make his mark at the big-league level when he gets there (even if he does eventually max out as a 4th OF). Similar to Green, Brantley isn't a prospect that gets a lot of toolsy oriented scouts excited.

[Mass Haas]

I know Mass has been a big proponent of Alcides Escobar, but I think even he would admit that #3 is an awfully high ranking.

Well, I had him at # 4 when the three of us submitted our individual end-of-season Power 50 rankings, and that was before Jeffress failed another drug test, so no, no ranking is too high for Alcides! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[SoCalBrewfan]

Thanks for the scoop, colby.

 

I think I argued for Escobar in the top 4 back in an earlier Escobar thread, and I'd stand by that argument. Once you get past Laporta and Parra, you've got a lot of guys with some serious warts. (Even those two guys come with question marks, namely defense and health, respectively.) Escobar brings something that few Brewers prospects can offer: defense. Not just a decent glove, but potential gold glove defense at the most important position on the diamond. Looking at his hitting stats shows a guy who has hit a bit, even outhitting some of our young outfield prospects in the same parks at a younger age...but if it were all about offense Escobar wouldn't be a top prospect.

 

If Escobar could hold his own with the bat, that would give the Brewers the option of shifting Hardy to 2b or 3b in a couple of years, particularly if and when the team gets tired of playing no-defense softball games and winning or losing 8-6 every night.

 

I would probably have Gamel ahead of Brewer and Gillespie, and I don't know if I'd have Rogers on the top ten at all...but I haven't followed his recovery very closely. Brewer of course has the tools to make a real impact but also seems to have a pretty significant risk of flameout. Actually, this Brewers top ten has a lot of risk from top to bottom, though there's still more upside than was the case in the dark years. With the risky and injured guys, the imminent graduation of Parra, and the up-and-comers in the teens (Gindl, Bryson, Tyson), it seems to be virtually certain that we'll see a lot of new names in the top ten next year, particularly if the Brewers have a number of high picks after free agency this offseason.

[twobrewers]

I can't see how LaPorta is rated that high - while Gamel is rated that low.

 

Two players who can really rake, but can't field. Maybe I am just high on Gamel, but I don't see much of a difference between the two.

 

I think Gamel is being punished for all of his errors at 3B, whereas LaPorta is given a pass because he is only a LF. The truth is, they are probably equally bad defenders. But Gamel might become a decent 3B someday, making him a better prospect. At the very least, he should be able to play a better LF than LaPorta.

[pogokat]

i don't think you can verify the commen on defense...

 

and the two are not equal prospects as hitters...Gamel, for all his success, is not on the level with LaPorta

[twobrewers]

I obviously can't verify the comment on the defense. But all of the scouting reports have pointed to LaPorta is being a 1B/DH type player as he is very slow. Many reports doubted his ability to play LF.

 

Gamel, while a horrible 3B - possesses some speed which should enable him to play LF better than LaPorta.

 

Gamel is currently putting up a 1.112 OPS in Hawaii. LaPorta has an .844 OPS in Arizona.

 

Now obviously there is a different level of talent in each league which needs to be considered. But everyone jumped up and down and considered LaPorta to be the next great thing over 88 at bats in West Virginia where he put up a 1.142 OPS. But when Gamel puts up a 1.112 OPS in 98 at bats in Hawaii - no one notices?

 

Lastly, lets not forget that LaPorta has only played up to West Virginia. Gamel has already played in Brevard County. And Gamel is younger than LaPorta.

 

I shouldn't have said Gamel is a better prospect - I meant that solely on projecting him as a 3B. My point is that they have each experienced short bursts of success. LaPorta is already talked about as playing in MLB in 2008. While Gamel is an afterthought. I just don't see that much of a talent gap.

[colbyjack]

It's a fair argument twobrewers, as I too believe that Gamel gets the shaft a little bit when it comes to prospect comparison and overall discussion. All the guy has done has hit since being added to the system, and one thing I have always believed is that you can't teach anyone to hit, which is why I supported Corey Hart for so long despite not having the best BB:AB ratios.

 

I was leery of Gamel's K rate at Helena a few years back, but then he fixed that in a hurry improving significantly in his next year at WV. This past season he continued to hit at a place that is very difficult to do so while maintaining that improved discipline.

 

And he bats left-handed, a distinct organizational weakness before the emergence of Taylor Green and Caleb Gindl.

 

However, there is something else that I also believe in: You can't teach power. Not that Gamel doesn't have any, but LaPorta has a ton, and power is arguably the most valuable tool for any hitter, with the usual caveats of course.

 

The defense aspect of the argument is an afterthought though, as both players are going to earn their keep by hitting, and those two, along with a guy like Cole Gillespie, certainly will make LF more interesting at this time next year as we currently try to figure out who will keep the position warm between now and then.

[Tbadder]

Let me first say that I don't know 5% of what you guys know about minor leaguers. So at best my comments deserve "outsider" status. And maybe that's the only value I can bring to this discussion. But when I look at this list I'm saddened a little. It's really unimpressive, and doesn't show the organizational stream that a small market team needs. LaPorta, our best prospect, geez that really is depressing. An old, slow, poor fielding guy? Our Fielder replacement, for when he gets his princely sum, is the best we have to offer? Parra is in the Bigs--I can't count him, but what a long and winding road, for a guy who at any time might get injured again and short-circuit his career entirely. Steroid/drug users, players so inconsistent that they disappear for a year at a time. Injured players who can't be counted on? College players progressing slowly thru the various leagues? It seems to me that really only Gamel is a high ceiling prospect--he has youth, power, speed, improving plate discipline--why isn't he in the outfield where he can be useful? Again, I could be completely wrong, and these guys might represent a viable future, and they may be as good as many organizations, but they seem so lackluster. Maybe after a plethora of youth arriving in Brewtown I'm suffering a bit of a downer, hoping that we could keep churning out Brauns, and Harts, and Weeks, etc. Please tell me I'm wrong. Thanks in advance for any thoughts.

[lexi881]

I have not really followed LaPorta at all this year, and I am sure that I am more than a little biased, but the comment about Mat having little power is just sort of funny to me. You are certainly entitled to your opinion, which is most likely based solely on numbers, but I hope that one day you will be fortunate enough to see one of his home runs in person......then you can talk about what kind of power he does or does not have, to both sides of the field. I just got back from HI - where I saw him hit a total bomb of a home run. Seriously - what does the kid have to do to get a little credit. He is batting .357, with 7 home runs, one being a grand slam and an OBS of 1.112 in HI Winter League with 4 teams made up of pretty much nothing but prospects. This after no down time after a long regular season and going to post-season championships with both the Manatees and the Stars, in addition to a 33 game hit streak in one of the worst leagues for hitters, the FSL. He has been a batting leader since he was drafted, was second in the SAL home-run derby, was the MVP of the SAL All-Star game, was named to both the Mid and Post-Season All-Star teams, has been player of the week for the FSL, Topps FSL Player of the month and was named to the FSL Post-Season All-Star team.

[colbyjack]

Who said Gamel didn't have any power? Comparing anyone's power to LaPorta's is simply unfair, because the guy truly is a man among boys, but that isn't to imply that Gamel doesn't have much.

 

TBadder, I agree with you for the most part, but I don't agree with the overlying thought that LaPorta is old, slow and poor fielding. He's one year older than most college picks, he's doesn't run like a catcher and no one is absolutely sure how good or bad his fiedling will be. The initial reports seem to indicate that he should be able to hold his own in LF, and a lot of people think he's going to wind up at 1B anyway. And, similar to Prince and Braun, when he gets his chance if he continues to improve people aren't going to care what he can do in the field when they see what he can do at the plate.

 

Keep in mind that the Brewers were able to draft players like Braun, Weeks and Fielder because of their early draft position. Unfortunately the Brewers didn't enjoy as much success when they took Mark Rogers so high, but you can't hit on them all, and you can't even completely write off Rogers yet. Fortunately the Brewers not drafting as high means the big-league team is performing better.

 

I do agree that is was somewhat frustrating that several of the organizations OF prospects didn't step up as much as I hope they would have. I would have thought that at least one of Gillespie, Cain, Ford and Fermaint would have had a really good year. All of them (except for Fermaint) had solid years, but not great ones like Gamel and Taylor did.

 

Brewer has all of the tools to be an incredible ballplayer, Taylor Green really emerged, Zach Braddock was nearly untouchable before having his season cut short due to injury (precautionary), the organization had one of it's best DFE classes, they seemed to enjoy another fruitful draft, even if the potential star power doesn't seem to be there, they continued to sign some of the bigger named players in Latin America and they might be adding as many as four extra early picks in next year's draft to help add to the system. The top 10 prospect still looks better than it did five years ago, and there is encouraging talent at each and every level. It's not as good as it has been the past 2-3 years, and may fall in the middle of the pack overall, but being somewhat saddened by that is probably a good thing because it shows how spoiled we are with the amount of talent the organizaiton has produced.

[Tbadder]

Thanks for your insights. I guess what I've learned is that I'm the kinda guy who prioritizes athelticism and greater risk/greater reward ratio--it's certainly the reason I like Brewer 3rd best on this list. A guy like Gindl will always excite me more than LaPorta who I can't imagine is going to improve very much compared to a Gindl, Brewer, Gamel. But I take your point and do realize I suffer from a general lack of understanding here. I also realize LaPorta has special power. Maybe I didn't like the pick because power is something the major league club doesn't need; though I buy into the Fielder replacement line of thinking, and if it does happen, it will show just how smart jack Z and his boys can be.

[colbyjack]

Getting back to the other teams, the entire NL East has been posted. The NL Central starts next Monday with the Cubs up first.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/organizationtop10/2007/

[NastyTwig]

I think the reason that the list looks unimpressive to some is because the guys on there now aren't the big money first rounders. If Gamel would have gotten a 2 million signing bonus, then put up these numbers, he'd be a lot more hyped. He's in the same position as Corey Hart was.

 

I really don't get the lack of love for Brantley. If the kid (20 YEARS OLD IN AA) can keep his average around .270, he's still going to put up an OBP around .400. I can live with the lack of power if he's walking to first just as often as he's running. We need more players like him, especially with a potential Weeks (2B), Fielder (1B), Braun (3B), Hart (RF), LaPorta (LF), and Hardy (SS) lineup behind him. Ugh... That lineup looks sick.

[dadofandrew]

I agree on Brantley. He's 20 and not doing badly at all in AA. People discuss his lack of power all the time, but 20 year-olds very rarely show any pop, and those that do are guys like Prince, megastars.

[colbyjack]

***Disclaimer: I'm going to question Brantley's power, but that doesn't mean I don't like him.***

 

I agree on Brantley. He's 20 and not doing badly at all in AA. People discuss his lack of power all the time, but 20 year-olds very rarely show any pop, and those that do are guys like Prince, megastars.

 

It's not all (Fielder) or nothing (Brantley) when it comes to power and 20 year olds, and while I do believe that power is a trait that often blossoms later, usually players that do enjoy a spike of power later in their career have some kind of statistical trends leading up to that spike. Extra base hits are usually the overlying theme, as doubles and triples turn into dingers, but rarely do you see singles dramatically turn into doubles and triples and dingers.

 

Brantley is at the far end of the power spectrum, just as Fielder is at the other end, but there are plenty of players in between those two, regardless if they are 20 or 26. I'm all for Brantley, I like his polish, but it doesn't make sense to go out of your way to make an excuse or try to even justify his lack of power, because he really, really needs to develop some to improve his current none. A .362 career slugging in the minors will likely mean that he needs to have a .400+ OBP just to sustain a .750 OPS.

 

I will say this, nothing will excite me more if Brantley does come out with an improved surge of power next spring.

[gregmag]

Colby, I think your take on Brantley is generally right -- he needs power to make any kind of impact -- but your suggestion that "usually players that do enjoy a spike of power later in their career have some kind of statistical trends leading up to that spike" got me thinking about whether that's necessarily true at Brantley's age.

 

This is in no way scientific, but I tried to think off the top of my head of some good-to-great players whose major calling card is/was OBP and who, as major leaguers, developed not big power, but enough power to get by (MLB career ISO over .100). A quick search turned up several such guys whose minor league power records early in their careers resemble Brantley's. (The numbers below include minor league stops at which the player ran up at least 150 ABs.)

 

MICHAEL BRANTLEY

Age: 18 Level: R SLG: .376 ISO: .029

Age: 19 Level: A SLG: .339 ISO: .039

Age: 20 Level: A SLG: .440 ISO: .105

Age: 20 Level: AA SLG: .294 ISO: .045

 

RAY DURHAM

Age: 19 Level: A SLG: .366 ISO: .112

Age: 20 Level: A+ SLG: .332 ISO: .060

 

TONY PHILLIPS

Age: 19 Level: A SLG: .270 ISO: .079

Age: 20 Level: A+ SLG: .266 ISO: .034

Age: 20 Level: AA SLG: .391 ISO: .109

 

WADE BOGGS

Age: 18 Level: A SLG: .296 ISO: .036

Age: 19 Level: A+ SLG: .382 ISO: .050

Age: 20 Level: AA SLG: .370 ISO: .059

 

Kenny Lofton, who struck me as a logical comparison for Brantley optimists, started later. At age 21, he put up a .273/.059 season in single-A ball; at 23, he hit for .395/.064 at A+. Ditto Kevin Seitzer: at 21 he hit for .437/.092 in rookie ball; at 22, .419/.122 at A; at 23, .414/.100 at A+ and .417/.069 at AA.

 

A lot of caveats apply here. First, I am not suggesting that Brantley has established any chance to be as good as any of the guys above. Second, I haven't accounted in any way for park or era effects, and I have no idea what difference doing so would make. Third, I just pulled these comparisons out of my head. There are counterexamples; Tony Gwynn, for example, was an "adequate power" MLB player who put up strong power numbers at Brantley's age, as was Roberto Alomar.

 

But I think these examples suggest that Brantley's present lack of power, while likely foreclosing any future as a cleanup hitter, doesn't tell us much about his chance of developing adequate power down the line. Now, that goes out the window if we decide Brantley's numbers at A-ball this year were a fluke. He was repeating the level, which gives some cause for concern. If you throw out those numbers entirely, then even Boggs looks better by comparison.

 

Bottom line: I'm inclined to believe Brantley still has time and a reasonable opportunity to develop enough power to hold down a regular job.

 

Greg.

[wvpowerblkwel]

It took me a while to actually read this thread, but here is my two cents on what I've read/seen. I have seen all these guys pass through Charleston in the last two years except for Parra and Gillespie and not much on Mark Rogers so I won't comment on those. LaPorta in my view, is the real deal and deserves the rating. He really wasn't given much to hit here in WV and had to swing at "close pitches" sometimes just to get something, and his power is legit and comes from his swing and even his base hits were hard hits. Jeffress can be the real deal if he clears his mind of it's issues. I watched him throw three innings one nite from behind the plate where the scouts had the stalker on him, and it was 98 98 98 97 98 routinely....like power, that can't be taught. Brewer is not there in my mind yet. I would rate him # 11 behind Taylor Green. His defense is shabby in comparison to Gamel and Braun at this point! He has the physical skills, but I'm not seeing that much that rates him #5 from this season. Gamel seems to be improving over this past season, and I was high on what I saw from him in Charleston. The other former Power guy to dominate the Hawaiian league like Gamel did, now resides on the San Diego Padress roster (Joe Thatcher, who by the way was my choice at the start of the season as next guy to the bigs after Yo). Salome is an amazing guy, and also a hard worker with a heart. He befriended my 5 yr old here and is responsible for by boy's love of the game and I pray he gets another fair shot, because his talent was amazing! Lastly Cain....when you think that the kid hasn't matured physically yet, has only been playing baseball for a short while, he has huge upside and I agree with him being in the top 10. My first thoughts on Lorenzo was that he reminded me of Eric Davis, who just hadn't filled in all the way yet....I still hold to that thought. Anyhow, there you have one lowly accountants thoughts on the guys I've watched here in WV!

[DrWood]

I personally am pretty high on Brantley, and think he can at least be a 15 HR guy in the majors, if he gets an everyday job. Problem is, that type of modest power doesn't play well in the corner OF positions. The guy has speed, can he be a CF?