You Have To Give To Get, Kids

[Blunt36]

Well, I rarely post here, but I read the forums quite a bit. That said, I agree 100% with Mass Haas' post and with the posters backing him up. There are a ton of great threads discussing hypothetical trades and realistic rumors, but mixed among them a few that are just so far out there that they are just plain ridiculous. The point about quantity rarely netting quality is a good one I think, and those who pointed out that it will take a lot more than a package of guys the Brewers don't need, or in some cases don't even want, to bring much value in return are right on. It seems like the same "usual suspects" consistently come up as our trade bait, and I just don't see why any team would be interested in giving up top tier talent for burned out former prospects or borderline waivable players. Really, I think most MLB teams have their own Derrick Turnbows, Zach Jacksons, Tony Gwynns, or Claudio Vargases, so they probably don't need ours. I'm sorry, but it doesn't matter how big of a pile of crap you put together, it still won't be enough to get you Miguel Cabrera in return.

[TooLiveBrew]

http://www.sakebomb.com/news/images/jeffandshit.jpg

 

Are you telling me you wouldn't be tempted to give up MORE than just Cabrera for that?! I mean, that's a huge pile of crap! Take it from pink hat guy, you want this deal. No - you NEED this deal.

 

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm sorry, but it doesn't matter how big of a pile of crap you put together

 

 

I think the point that the people who feel slighted by these comments is making is this.....while a trade proposal may look ridiculous to some, there's no way that anyone else can know how much thought they put into it. Joe Poster may have thought for 20 minutes, looked at stats for 15 more on baseball reference, and then looked on ESPN.com just for kicks, and then thought that Tony Gwynn, Manny Parra, and Joe Dillon was a fair trade for Albert Pujols. Just because it's ridiculous to you, and 90% of the posters here doesn't mean for certain that that poster didn't think about it before he posted it.

 

EVERY fanbase overvalues their players.

 

Posting an unrealistic trade proposal at WORST opens up the discussion for what it WOULD take to get a certain player, and I don't see why so many people think they know that someone is not researching a trade idea before posting.

[Weirdos19]

If you don't want to add a new forum, you can just make posters state (in the title) that they have a link or they don't have a link. Would that correct it?

 

I have a feeling that my proposed trade for Miguel Cabrera got this whole discussion going. But why?

 

Villanueva, Bush, Gwynn, and ZJ seems like a pretty good package to me. Especially for a team that is in dire need of starting pitching. No aces here, but a possible 2or 3 (Villanueva), 4 (Bush), and 5 or long reliever (ZJ) with a speedy center fielder (Gwynn) that the Marlins have been looking for. They haven't had that since Juan Pierre.

 

Just my two cents.

[Blunt36]

TooLiveBrew - Now that I actually see what a huge pile of crap looks like, I may have to rethink my position. That does look like a very tempting offer, and you're right, its almost too much to give up for just Miguel Cabrera.

 

RoCoBrewfan - I agree with you that most of the posts suggesting these fleecings are probably still thought out, and I'm not trying to say that people are just typing without thinking. But, I really think some of the ideas (and I'm only talking about a few here) are just so far fetched that its hard to even to begin to find a way to modify them to something realistic. Also, I absolutely agree with you that every fanbase overrates their players. I know I do.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I have a feeling that my proposed trade for Miguel Cabrera got this whole discussion going. But why?

 

Villanueva, Bush, Gwynn, and ZJ seems like a pretty good package to me. Especially for a team that is in dire need of starting pitching. No aces here, but a possible 2or 3 (Villanueva), 4 (Bush), and 5 or long reliever (ZJ) with a speedy center fielder (Gwynn) that the Marlins have been looking for. They haven't had that since Juan Pierre.

 

I won't speak for MassBrew, but I don't think it's any one proposal in particular. Rather, it's the multitude of deals in which the Brewers simultaneously solve their one glaring hole and also cull the roster of pieces that the team has no use for. Villanueva is clearly not in that category.

 

To me, the issue is that one star is almost always worth more than four marginal to decent players. Having a guy who is 60 or 70 runs above replacement value for his position is a very rare thing...there's maybe a dozen guys like that in the majors. (Numbers deliberately chosen to be vague). Let's take an extreme case...trade the guy who is 60 runs above replacement for 12 guys each 5 runs above replacement. Thing is, most teams already have a bunch of guys who are a few runs above replacement, so the value added with 12 +5 guys is a lot smaller than a single +60 guy...you probably won't even get all the +5 guys on the field unless your team was really really awful.

 

And that's the thing with most of the proposed quantity for quality deals. Most teams have a Zack Jackson or six, and a Laynce Nix, and many even have a Claudio Vargas. (I'm not sure ZJ is even a +5, frankly.)

 

For that proposal in particular, while they probably aren't enough to pull Cabrera, IMO Villanueva and Bush together would have some real value...for all that Bush has had his issues at times, the free agent market ought to illustrate how much value a durable and average starting pitcher can hold. Coming off a 5.12 ERA, Bush is probably less valuable than he should be, though...of course, it was even better than the 5.15 put up by Dontrelle Willis. (Florida seems to be the one NL team with a defense worse than the Brewers.)

[dadofandrew]

Wierdos, your proposal would bring a lot of talent, but not a star. To get Cabrera, you'd need Yo or someone of that echelon, as the Yankees' rumors have a pair of top prospects, like Chamberlin or Hughes.

[strawbossisevil]

Although when we traded Sexson, we weren't given a star. We were given a whole bunch of people with potential, or who the D-backs had soured on. Not saying Sexson is exactly equivalent to Cabrera, but it's something to consider.

[Fatter than Joey]

Although when we traded Sexson, we weren't given a star.

 

1.) I think the Sexson trade is WAY overvalued on this board -- I don't think the Brewers did as good as some people think here.

 

2.) The Brewers were looking for some stopgaps for when Weeks/Hardy/Prince hit the show, and that is exactly what they got -- The Marlins are a better

team than the Brewers were at the time they traded Sexson, and I suspect that the Marlins think they are a couple of key players away

from making a run at the NL East, so they may try to hold out for more value or specific needs.

[strawbossisevil]

My point was, star players are often traded for less than star talent. The Sexson trade is just one example. There are plenty more out there. I'm not saying that a package without a star would get Cabrera, but it isn't as impossible. It's easily something that should be open for discussion and not instantly discredited.

 

Hmm, the Brewers didn't do well in the Sexson trade? They got Overbay and Capuano, both who had a number of solid seasons for the Crew. And considering it was that, or have one more year of Sexson, I think we did pretty well for ourselves.

[Fatter than Joey]

It's easily something that should be open for discussion and not instantly discredited.

 

I would agree with you in principle, there is no reason to discredit such discussion.

 

Hmm, the Brewers didn't do well in the Sexson trade?

 

I didn't say that -- I said, that the trade was overvalued on this board.

 

The Brewers did not get more wins after making the trade -- they went from 68 wins to 67 wins -- but that was OK -- guys like Spivey/Moeller/Counsell/Overbay

were nothing more than place holders until Prince/Weeks/JJ made it up.

 

The Marlins already have their young studs in place for the most part -- I suspect their motivation for dealing Cabrera is to get more wins immediately, rather than acquire guys like Moeller/Spivey/Counsell.

[Weirdos19]

Well, IMO, I would n't trade Yo or Braun for Cabrera straight up.

 

The reason a team like Florida would give up a player like Cabrera is money. They can't pay him. They will not get equal value.

 

Everybody is so high on Phil Hughes. He could be great. he could be Anibal Sanchez. No hit stuff for one game, then disapper. The NY media makes everybody think every prospect they have is gold, when most have been fools gold. (Brien Taylor, D Angelo Jiminez, etc.)

 

The Yankees are like the Braves. They seldom give up prospects that pan out.

[SoCalBrewfan]

My point was, star players are often traded for less than star talent. The Sexson trade is just one example.

 

It certainly happens, but I have two comments here. First, Sexson wasn't as good a player as Cabrera. Second, that was a deal for one year of Sexson, pending free agency. Third, the Brewers were in a situation where they had holes everywhere, so that acquiring a lot of decent players had a chance of improving the team, or at least papering over holes until better players arrived from the farm system. Ok, maybe that's three comments.

 

I personally didn't like the deal at the time precisely because it was a lot of ok players rather than two good ones. As it turned out, Spivey wasn't much but at least got the Brewers Ohka, Overbay had a couple of decent years and then brought Bush & Gross, and Capuano has been a solid contributor. The other three were close to scrap heap level guys, though Counsell's defense and OBP made him a somewhat . Ironically, delaRosa was supposed to be the prize there...he did get the Brewers a short term trade fix as well.

 

The Brewers did not get more wins after making the trade -- they went from 68 wins to 67 wins

 

I don't think that's exactly a complete analysis of the deal.

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think that's exactly a complete analysis of the deal.

 

Of course not. My point was that the Brewers had no intention of making a run at anything when they traded Sexson, and were quite

content to tread water. If DM thought that adding Spivey-Counsell-Moeller was going to make the Brewers competitive he should have

been fired years ago.

 

If the Marlins trade Miggy I am sure that their expectations will that they will see a change of fortunes from the previous year.

 

In short -- comparing Sexson to Miggy probably is Apples v. Oranges.

[strawbossisevil]

I don't think that's exactly a complete analysis of the deal.

 

Of course not. My point was that the Brewers had no intention of making a run at anything when they traded Sexson, and were quite

content to tread water. If DM thought that adding Spivey-Counsell-Moeller was going to make the Brewers competitive he should have

been fired years ago.

 

If the Marlins trade Miggy I am sure that their expectations will that they will see a change of fortunes from the previous year.

 

In short -- comparing Sexson to Miggy probably is Apples v. Oranges.

It is Apples v. Oranges. You are right. But my point wasn't so much specifically about Miggy as it was about star players in general. Sometimes a lot of mediocre players/mid level prospects can land you a big fish. It's happened in the Sexson deal, it's happened in other deals too. That's my point.

 

Not saying it'll necessarily apply in the Miggy situation, but to entirely ignore that such deals have been made in the past, and totally disregard a poster as such as not thinking through his post is a bit harsh. When there have been plenty of quanity for quality trades in the past. And for the record, I think Florida is in need of some quantity in the area of Starting Pitching (something the poster addressed by offering two solid pitchers). Granted, it may not be enough if the Yankees offer Joba or Philip.

 

Most importantly, let's be critical without being judgemental.

 

[Mass Haas]

Ironically, this thread has evolved into a wonderfully worthy discussion separate from the maligned thread title -- who knew?

[SoCalBrewfan]

FWIW, the LA Times discussed an Angels package for Cabrera as something like Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart...the Marlins are supposedly adamant about Kendrick. That's a lot of talent, roughly analogous to Weeks, Braun, Gallardo as of a year ago...though Braun and Gallardo have now proven themselves in the bigs and thus enhanced their value. Seems to me I read elsewhere that it was more like Wood OR Kendrick, plus supporting talent...four players is the rumor reported elsewhere.

[TooLiveBrew]

Interesting - thanks for that SoCal. Sounds like the Fish are optimistic that they can get some quality pitching in return for Uggla, unless they plan to move him to 3B (a reasonable option) once Cabrera is gone.

 

Is there a bit of a 'T.O. leaving San Fran. factor' here, in that teams know the Marlins will 'have' to trade him either now or sometime in the near future? (What I mean by that is, essentially, driving down his value a tad) Plus, he's due to hit FA in the not-too distant future, so any team that gets him could conceivably lose him in a year or two.