Johan Santana to the Red Sox?

[twobrewers]

From Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback (Yes, the football writer)

 

"Rumors say the Red Sox are chasing Johan Santana. Not sure any player is worth what you'd have to give up to steal him from Minnesota."

 

Now he is a football writer, but he is also a huge Red Sox fan and pretty well connected. So it might not be worth a lot, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if there was some truth to it.

 

Would Bucholz for Santana work for both teams?

(Red Sox get a sure thing. Twins get a great, cheap young prospect)

[endaround]

There have been "rumors" like this for about two years.

[Oldcity]

I'm guessing the Twins would be looking for a young hitter before a young pitcher. Young pitchers are far from a sure thing, as so many encounter arm injuries at some point. Plus the Twins have a lot of good young pitchers already.

[Roscoe Chill]

Of course two years ago Santana wasn't entering the last year of his contract.

[MNBrew]

A starting position player for a decent starting pitcher might be equitable. Ditto if you subbed a sure-fire prospect for one or the other. But a prospect with limited MLB experience for a multiple-time Cy Young Award winner regarded as one of the best pitchers in the game? I don't think so.

 

Speculation up here in MN is that it'd take 3 blue-chip players/prospects to even get the Twins to listen unless you could nab a pair like both Pujols and Rolen from St. Louis . . . that at least might be in the ballpark -- and still not that likely to happen.

[mothershipconnection]

Buchholz is a great prospect, but I think any trade hinges on a few factors.

1) Do they think they can re-sign Santana, or is it a sure thing that he's gone?

2) Will they lose Hunter (probably yes) and not sign anyone important this winter?

3) What do they think Liriano will do in complimenting Santana next season?

 

If they're confident that he'll walk, they won't make a major signing, and are unsure about Liriano and their chances to compete in 2008, it makes them a lot more likely to entertain offers.

[monty57]

I don't remember what site I was reading...one of the big media (FoxSport, CBS, ESPN), but the writer basically made it sound like trading Santana was a sure thing. I know you need to take any media "sure things" with a big grain of salt, but to the writer, the only question seemed to be whether the Twins will trade him during the offseason or at the trade deadline.

 

In the same line of articles, the writer stated that if the Twins get a good enough market built up, the DRays will probably try to start a bidding war for Kazmir. They seem to think that even though he's not as good of pitcher, he has a few years of abry left, so he could net almost as much in a trade.

 

I'm with MNBrew on this one. If traded, Santana is going to net several big name young players.

[KCBrewerfan34]

If Minnesota can't sign Santana they better line up the teams and have them make their best offer, 2 picks for Santana (FA comp) would basically be a disaster for the Twins IMO. If they lose Hunter and trade Santana, that screams rebuilding or re-tooling. They might as well trade us Nathan.

[RockCoCougars]

If I'm the Twins I would almost do a Bucholz/decent hitting prospect deal for Santana. You are not getting equal value, but there is no way Santana is resigning there.

[MNBrew]

If I'm the Twins I would almost do a Bucholz/decent hitting prospect deal for Santana. You are not getting equal value, but there is no way Santana is resigning there.

I hear the logic, but time can change plenty of things. And if Hunter's headed elsewhere (and at last report, he's mainly after a 5 year deal and the Twins are only offering 3), trading Santana would be total PR suicide. Their offense is often suspect and pitching is their strong suit. I think the Twins would have to be totally blown away to seriously considering trading Santana before next July at the earliest.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

For my dark horse in this race, look at Dodger blue. Loaded with young talent, and apparently happy to limit said talent's opportunities in favor of overpaid, poorly-aging (& whiny) veterans. A package including some of the following would definitely get a deal really close to being done: Kemp, Billingsley, Loney, Ethier, Broxton, LaRoche, heck - even Martin (Martin for Mauer would then become a given in the deal). Why any sane GM would part with any combination out of that group is beyond me, but that's why the baseball gods have given us Ned Colletti.

 

When you consider that LAD can also send a vet or two in any potential deal, I think that if Santana does indeed get dealt this offseason, it'll be to LAD. Fwiw, I think what we're learning is that the Twins understand the great value that the combo of a first-round pick & a sandwich-round pick presents. Basically, in any calculation(s), provide at least two first/second-round draft picks (or the talent equivalent) in terms of prospects, and proceed from there. For example - Kemp (rd. 6) + Ethier (2) + Billingsley (1) will get you started/close. And I know that where a guy is drafted doesn't = his performance, just a comparison point.

 

Wow, in researching this, I'm shocked at the young talent the Dodgers have at or near MLB-ready. If anyone can pull Colletti's head out of ... the clouds, this could be a really, really good team for the next 5+ years. Especially when you consider that they have veterans that are blocking what are likely better players in many cases - and the vets have trade value.

[danzig6767]

You are not getting equal value, but there is no way Santana is resigning there.

 

Wouldn't surprise me to see the Red Sox get Santana

They have become a near Yankees like franchise with a money printing press on hand. They acquired Schilling and Beckett because they had to money to pay them, why not Santana? They could shell out a 100 million for Matasuka and they can afford the crazy cash Santana is looking at, not many teams can so they should be a leading candidate in a trade with the Twins.

[endaround]

My point wasn't Santana won't be traded, just that any rumors about the Red Sox tend to be garbage. For example Boras saying that ARod wouldn't mind playing for Boston due to them showing they can win was turned into "Boston tops on ARod's list"

[homer]

"For my dark horse in this race, look at Dodger blue."

 

Dodgers have been mentioned as a potential suitor several times on ESPN recently.

[Katuluu]

Right now word in MN is they will let Hunter go and use that money towards Santana. Also, if they resign Silva, it is a sure thing Santana will resign with the Twins.

[TooLiveBrew]

Dodgers have been mentioned as a potential suitor several times on ESPN recently.

 

Thanks, homer - I don't watch that network at all anymore if I can avoid it. It just devolves into me yelling at people that can't hear me anyway. I know I didn't come up with the Dodger idea, but it makes a lot of sense (trade-wise) to me.

[Weirdos19]

Youkilis and Ellsbury may get it done.

 

There is no way that the Twins deal a perrenial Cy Young candidate for a prospect. The Twins already have a great amount of young pitching. They are looking for young, cheap hitters.

 

Now, I don't think any team mortgages their future without signing Santana to an extension.

[dadofandrew]

I would say it's very unlikely the Twins resign Santana. Anything better than 2 #1 picks have to be considered.

[ILuvDaBush]

What about Toronto and Rios for Santana? Rios could fill in ably in center for the Twins and he is under their control then for awhile. The Jays have the money to resign him and are in need of a bit of resurgence, especially with the Yanks reeling and the Sox in line for a bit of regression.

[danzig6767]

Now, I don't think any team mortgages their future without signing Santana to an extension.

If Santana plays this out t get as much cash as possible, he's going to get crazy big cash. That right there eliminates a large percentage of teams that would even consider trading for Santana. He is the best pitcher in the game, still pretty young, and has no history of arm issues. I'd guess he can get 25 million a year, how many teams can pay that?

 

The Red Sox have the players to make a trade and are absolutely swimming in cash to buy almost whatever they want, my money is on them getting Santana if/when the Twins trade him.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know who the BoSux have, though, that'd pique Minn.'s interest and be relatively cheap. It's not like they can sling Manny or Ortiz - too pricey. I just don't know Boston's farm system well enough to specultate.

[pogokat]

pique Minn's interest...that is all.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Thing to rememember. Minnesota is getting a new stadium. That is going to help their revenue, and they are in a very similar position that we were when we opened Miller Park. They "novelty" of the new stadium will bring people in the first year, but a commitment to winning is what will keep people coming after that.

 

Granted, the Twins lost one of the best GMs in baseball this Fall, but I still think putting alot of eggs in the basket for Santana makes sense on alot of levels. He is the best pitcher in baseball, and even if you devote $25M/year to him, he's still worth it. The only question is, what is the length of the deal, and how do you compliment him on the team.

 

Santana was very angry that the Twins didn't "re-load" for the stretch run last year. If they would have, they could have made some noise for the wild card. Granted, NYY were very very hot the last 2-3 months of the season, but the Twins has an opportunity for a late season surge, and Twins players/fans were mad when reinforcements didn't come through.

 

I'm not saying the Twins WILL resign Hunter, but if they did, resigned Silva, and maybe signed a bat, I don't see any reason why Santana (with the right amount of $$$) wouldn't resign with Minnesota. The Twins are a proven winner, have one of the best catchers in the game, and there is something to be said about NOT playing in Boston/New York/Chicago etc. I'd have no qualms giving Santana $150M over 6 years (if I'm the Twins), the only question is, is there an idiot team (in contention) that would give him over $200M?

[homer]

"That is going to help their revenue, and they are in a very similar position that we were when we opened Miller Park. They "novelty" of the new stadium will bring people in the first year, but a commitment to winning is what will keep people coming after that. "

 

And continuted global warming.....good luck filling that place in April and May.