Nady vs. Mench, Torreabla vs. Estrada

[colbyjack]

I wanted to break down the two comparisons listed in the thread title to try and gauge if people think trying to acquire players such as Xavier Nady and Yorvit Torrealba would even be worth it. I really think the Brewers main focus this offseason should be to try and shift some of the power on the club to patience, and really the only two positions you can do this with are at catcher and left field, as well as the bench (the bench comes into play at both positions IMO since it doesn't seem as though any player at either C or LF is going to be the everyday guy).

 

Anyway, Xavier Nady interests me as a RH hitting, LHP crushing corner OF that could possibly replace Kevin Mench. He may be available from Pittsburgh for several reasons: One, he's arby eligible. Two, he's a Boras client that's arby eligible. Three, he's a free agent after next season. And four, the Pirates have a similar player by the name of Steve Pearce that could easily take Nady's place for a fraction of the price.

 

Nady will be 29 in a week or two, while Mench turns 30 in January, so the age is almost a wash. Neither earns their paycheck for their defense, but neither is really a liability either.

 

Nady:

Overall numbers, 2007: .278/.330/.476

Overall numbers, career: .272/.327/.441

Versus LHP, 2004-2007: .314/.385/.482

 

Mench:

Overall numbers, 2007: .267/.306/.441

Overall numbers, career: .271/.326/.465

Versus LHP, 2004-2007: .308/.359/.558

 

The reason I wanted to bring up the two is because of their splits. Both are clearly much better vs. LHPs, but Mench's power against LHPs is extremely different, whereas Nady's power numbers are better vs. LHPs, but he clearly handles RHPs better than Mench does just looking at these breakdowns.

 

And while Nady doesn't hit for the same kind of power against lefties that Mench does, he does do a better job getting on base against them, especially looking at both Nady's and Mench's career numbers, which are pretty close to being the same.

 

I want to know what happened to Mench that caused him to take so few pitches upon his move to Milwaukee. He averaged 3.31 pitching per PA last year, but was in the 3.7's and 3.8's when he was with the Rangers. I know the Brewers preach patience, so I'm curious how Mench rapidly regressed.

 

Doing this I was reminded just how good Mench is against LHPs, and leads to me hope that the team keeps him around for another year if they're not able to replace him with someone like Nady, who I like, but I'm not so sure it's worth the trouble to try and get him.

 

The next pair is Johnny Estrada, everyone's favorite whipping boy, vs. Yorvit Torrealba. I'm not just picking Torrealba because he comes from the National League champion Colorado Rockies. He's a free agent (Type B), and the Rockies have a young catcher named Chris Iannetta that may cause them not to pursue re-signing Torrealba. He's known for his defense, and like Estrada is about as slow as you get on the basepaths.

 

While the Coors Field effects are likely to be brought up, he has managed to hit fairly consistently throughout his career at a variety of other ballparks, so I'm not so sure he factors into the usual Coors Field conversation. The main thing that prompted me to look at Torreable over Estrada is the fact that he has taken 3.65 pitches per PA during his career (3.79 last year) vs. 3.22 for Estrada (2.99 last year). He also has been successful throwing out 32.3% of opposing runners during his career vs. Estrada's 23.9% career mark (19.7% vs. 13.1% in 2007).

 

Estrada

2007: .278/.296/.403

Career: .280/.320/.406

 

Torrealba

2007: .255/.323/.376

Career: .251/.313/.391

 

Torrealba clearly draws more walks, I don't need to provide those numbers for anyone to figure that out, although I do strongly believe Estrada will have a comeback year next season, once he gets some of his health issues taken care of, not to mention that he's entering a contract year in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

 

Again, would it be worth the upgrade? The financial price may again be a wash. Estrada is two years older, which may not seem like much, but could be huge if you're trying to decide between the two as an option beyond the 2008 season.

 

Obviously none of the players mentioned in this are going to make or break the Brewers season in 2008 single-handed, but I do firmly believe a shift in offensive balance from power to patience could go a long way in improving the team overall. I'm just not so sure that it would be worth the effort necessary to make these changes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Doing this I was reminded just how good Mench is against LHPs, and leads to me hope that the team keeps him around for another year if they're not able to replace him with someone like Nady, who I like, but I'm not so sure it's worth the trouble to try and get him.

 

Exactly. There's really no reason for the Crew to not retain Mench. He did exactly what he was acquired to do. It's not his fault he kept getting matched v RHP. Why give up something to take a slight downgrade (v. LHP) in Nady?

 

And cj, I'm surprised you neglected to include how bad Torrealba was away from Coors this season. He was really bad. Coming from a guy that had zero love for Johnny this year... I want to just stand pat, given that his health clearly was a big factor in Estrada stinking in 2007. He'll be better in '08, but by how much?

[dadofandrew]

What's funny is, nearly every replacement for Mench or Estrada has worse numbers. People act like average C's and LF's are on the waiver wire.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Nady is better than Mench by clear margin and I'd prefer Torrealba over Estrada on defense alone. But I don't want them in combination for this reason:

 

Nady will get paid as an everyday player and that means either overpaying for a platoon player or playing him everyday. Though he's not a bad everyday player, he doesn't fit into a lineup that already is going to include 5 righthanded bats against right handed pitching (Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Hart & Hall). Replace Estrada with Torrealba and now you have the 5 righthanded hitters plus Nady and Torrealba, leaving Prince the only lefthanded bat in the lineup. The only thing that creates is 100+ walks and 20 less HR for Prince.

 

If you signed Torrealba and kept Estrada, you'd have 2 catchers making starter money too.

 

I believe your idea on patience is a good one but part of that is going to have to come from within. Braun for all his success, often swung at ball 4. As inexperienced as he is I expect a big improvement in his patience.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think Nady is better than Mench by clear margin

 

Where, exactly, is this margin? We aren't discussing either one as a full-time starter, just a LHP-masher.

[dadofandrew]

Mench's numbers are better than Nady's in every aspect, unless you choose to use the smallest sample available. Assumptions like Nady is better are groundless.

[colbyjack]

Thanks for chiming in. TooLiveBrew and dadofandrew have already called my bluff. In looking at some players that could replace the two areas of the team that seem as though they could be more easily fixed (meaning, there isn't a long-term option at the position yet), I reminded myself just how good Mench is at what he does, and just how few players could come in and be better than Estrada. I would like the team to try and figure out why Mench takes so many fewer pitches since being traded to the Brewers, as that difference alone could be a minor triumph.

 

And I agree that Braun was a major culprit as far as the team's overall patience is concerned, as is JJ Hardy (which somewhat surprised me), but again, I was trying to find ways to improve the team's overall weaknesses in the areas that seem more possible and likely.

 

Finding a better (and hopefully cheaper) replacement for Geoff Jenkins is the real goal.

 

And cj, I'm surprised you neglected to include how bad Torrealba was away from Coors this season. He was really bad.

 

I decided to ignore them because his career numbers have been pretty consistent even before he became a member of the Rockies. One big thing that bugged me about Torrealba, despite being known as a strong defensive catcher, he didn't do a very good job throwing out baserunners this past year. He was better than Estrada, but that's not hard to do.

 

Nady will get paid as an everyday player and that means either overpaying for a platoon player or playing him everyday.

 

I disagree with this point. Nady made $2.15M this past year, and I would expect him to make somewhere in the $3-4.5M range for next year since his 2007 numbers were almost exactly the same as his 2006 numbers (in fact, they're worse across the board except for HRs and SLG), putting him in a similar financial bracket as Mench, which IMO, isn't that bad for a good platoon player. My "suggestions" above kind of imply that you would be keeping either Estrada or Mench if you were to acquire Torrealba and/or Nady. I like Nady for what he does, but as noted, with Mench already under contract for another year, despite being arby eligible (and he's not going to get a huge pay raise), it's not worth the trouble to try and figure out a way to try and swap the two.

[endaround]

Mench's numbers are better than Nady's in every aspect, unless you choose to use the smallest sample available. Assumptions like Nady is better are groundless.

Except that is of course completely wrong.

Mench OPS+

2002 99

2004 116

2005 104

2006 87

2007 90

Career 101

 

Nady OPS+

2003 92

2004 92

2005 104

2006 102

2007 107

Career 102

 

Nady has been the better player the last two season by a lot. And they were the same player in 2005. The fact is that you keep pretending the what Mench did back in 2004 in Texas (.270/.337/.500 at home, .268/.320/.384 away) tells us something.

[dadofandrew]

I never use OPS+, because I do not know how it's figured. It may have its place here however, as Mench has played in a hitter's park much of his career. However, to pretend that Nady is better by a 102-101 margin and that trumps everything else is silly. Mench has not hit RH's the last two seasons when he's been used mostly as a platoon guy, as you'd expect. However, he may not age very well either. The main thing is, he mashes LHP like no one's business.

[Fatter than Joey]

Assumptions like Nady is better are groundless.

 

Except when they aren't

 

Nady is serviceable against RHers, Mench is an absolute liability. Mench is roughly going to get the same number

of ABs against LHers as he is RHers, unless you think Yost is going to magically figure out how to platoon players,

you really need to look at what they can do against RHers as well

 

Estrada is a terrible defensive catcher.

 

with Mench already under contract for another year, despite being arby eligible (and he's not going to get a huge pay raise), it's not worth the trouble to try and figure out a way to try and swap the two.

 

Ultimately, with contracts considered I would probably agree with this.

[JohnBriggs12]

"We aren't discussing either one as a full time starter, just a LHP masher."

 

Except that Nady was a full time starter last year with 336 AB's vs right handers, (vs Mench's 156), so not only would Pirates want back players worth a full time player, when he goes to arbitration, he will command more than Mench because he was a full time starter and Mench wasn't. So if all you wanted was to have Nady start against lefties, you'd still have to pay him starter money (he's not going to get paid on what his role is going to be but on what it was last year) and overpay Pittsburgh to get him.

[RockCoCougars]

Nady is much better than Mench, and if he was available in free agency, I'd have no problem giving him 5-6 million a year. On the other hand, if I'm Melvin, I'm tempted to non-tender Mench and let him walk. He is not worth what he will get.

 

I'll make a Estrada for Torrealba trade any day of the week. The problem is that the Rockies would laugh in the Brewers' face if they made that offer.

[colbyjack]

Torrealba is a free agent.

[Ennder]

Nady is much better than Mench, and if he was available in free agency, I'd have no problem giving him 5-6 million a year. On the other hand, if I'm Melvin, I'm tempted to non-tender Mench and let him walk. He is not worth what he will get.

 

I'll make a Estrada for Torrealba trade any day of the week. The problem is that the Rockies would laugh in the Brewers' face if they made that offer.

I dunno about Nady being much better than Mench. He's just another guy who shouldn't be playing every day. Maybe his defense might give him a tiny bit more value.. One isn't much better than the other one. I'd rather have Estrada than Torrealba too, but I believe Estrada was hampered by injuries and Torrealba helped by that park. I'd rather have a good C than either of them.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Even though Torrealba draws more walks, he still carries a lower career OBP than Estrada. I will never argue that high walk totals aren't a good thing, but I'm not impressed by a guy who needs to take walks as often as Torrealba does just to get to a .323 OBP.

 

If a person doing this evaluation thinks going forward that Estrada is going to have a bounce back year, I can't see a really good reason for making what looks like, at least on the surface, as a lateral move.

[Tbadder]

I'm assuming here, and correct me if I'm wrong, but seeing as Mench is one of the two or three worst fielders in the outfield on a team that fields like crap and declined an option on the one decent defender they had...wouldn't Nady be clearly better than Mench? (Serious question, not blue)

[TooLiveBrew]

Mench really isn't that bad of a fielder, per se - he's just pretty slow. Given the lack of speed, Nady may well be a better fielder. Not familiar enough with Xavier to weigh in there.

[Fatter than Joey]

wouldn't Nady be clearly better than Mench?

 

Nady would be clearly better than Mench -- however, I think the rub is because Nady will get paid to be a full-time player -- and Mench is a platoon player

 

It's hard to compare Nady v. Mench

 

If you are going to have one of the 2 play 150 games in LF -- I don't think that there is any question, that you take Nady -- If you are looking for someone

to get 150 ABs against LHP -- Mench is probably as good as Nady.

[Ennder]

I never use OPS+, because I do not know how it's figured. It may have its place here however, as Mench has played in a hitter's park much of his career. However, to pretend that Nady is better by a 102-101 margin and that trumps everything else is silly. Mench has not hit RH's the last two seasons when he's been used mostly as a platoon guy, as you'd expect. However, he may not age very well either. The main thing is, he mashes LHP like no one's business.

OPS+ and ERA+ are both terrible stats because they are based on very bad park factors. I would never use an argument based on them because I personally do not believe they are any more accurate than just plain old OPS and ERA. They need to do a lot more work on park/league adjustments before things like that are going to be accurate.