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Next years closer?


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Fuentes has pitched consistently below his FIP and xFIP over that last five season. This is what I came up with as why:

 

Brian Fuentes is a bit of a statistical anomaly. League average HR/FB is usually right around 12%, and any deviation from this is considered nothing but ballpark factors and luck. Its something that in almost every pitcher will revert back to the mean. Fuentes out in Colorado could be expected to carry a slighty higher HR/FB rate, right? Wrong.

 

2003 - 8.6%

2004 - 9.3%

2005 - 9.4%

2006 - 9.6%

2007 - 8.3%

Career - 9.4%

 

That's really odd. That consistent 2.6% difference saved him 9 home runs and about 13 earned runs over that time period. That alone would have rose his 3.39 ERA over those five season to 3.76. That's still approximately .2 runs below his FIP, so either he does something else very well that doesn't show up in FIP or he's due for a little bit of a regression.

 

I find it odd, but I'm willing to assume his low FB/HR rate will continue. Hell, it could improve leaving the mountains. I'm all for grabbing him and penciling him into our closer spot.

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General manager Doug Melvin promised after the season to make a "very aggressive" offer to Cordero and has already had preliminary discussions with Cordero's agent, Bean Stringfellow.

 

I'm just in awe. Is that name legal? That's the awesomestest name in the history of awesomestness. I'd like to formally request to be addressed as Bean Stringfellow III from this point on.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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