2007 BIS/STATS Combined Fielding Stats & 2008 Projections for Brewers

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Chone Smith (who posts on BTF as "AROM") has a blog entry up that links to fielding runs info for 2007 averaging STATS zone data (used for UZR) and BIS zone data (used for RZR and PMR). He's also got projections for 2008 that are "based on 4 years worth of data, age adjusted, and regressed to the mean." Here's the link:

 

http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html

 

Below I've summarized relevant info for 2007 and/or 2008 Brewers. All the numbers are in runs saved above/below average for position. Catchers aren't included, so we're stuck guessing how many runs Estrada cost us. As always, sample size warnings should be in effect. I almost left Dillon out because he's logged so few innings at each position. I feel pretty strongly that given the differences in BIS and STATS data, this is as close as we can currently come to a best guess at measuring a player's defensive value. As such, these numbers are probably better than looking at THT or BP's fielding stats alone. Enjoy.

 

PLAYER..........POS.....2007.....2008 (projected as regular)

Prince Fielder......1B.......-10........-6

Rickie Weeks......2B.......-10........-16

J.J. Hardy............SS........-5.........-1

Ryan Braun..........3B.......-24........-16

Craig Counsell......2B.......+1.........+14

............................3B........+7........+6

............................SS........+2........+12

Tony Graffanino....2B........-1.........+2

............................3B........+5........+2

Joe Dillon.............1B.........0..........0

............................2B........+1........+1

............................3B.........0..........-3

............................LF.........0..........-3

............................RF........-1.........-3

Geoff Jenkins........LF........+7........+3

Bill Hall................CF........-8.........-14

............................LF.......N/A.......-3

Corey Hart...........RF........+5........+5

............................CF........-1.........-3

Gabe Gross..........RF........-2.........+2

............................CF........+1........-7

Kevin Mench........LF........+1........+3

Tony Gwynn, Jr....CF........-3.........+3

[sbrylski]

Thanks, Brawndo.

 

I wonder why Hall is supposed to get worse? Also, the stats on Mench and Gwynn are interesting.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

My guess on Hall - he doesn't benefit from age adjustment anymore and looks worse largely because he played only about 3/4 worth of the innings in CF last year. The 2008 projections are for a full season. Why regression to the mean helps Braun (who also played just 3/4 of a season) so much more relative to Hall is what's a mystery to me.

[Fatter than Joey]

The stat that blows me away is the Counsell numbers for 2008 -- Apparently Counsell is going to get a lot of ABs in 2008.

[logan82]

Kevin Mench isn't as bad of a defender as we think. I wouldn't call him good, but I think he is at least average. Interesting to me was that Gross is projected to get better in RF, but worse in CF. How does that work?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Interesting to me was that Gross is projected to get better in RF, but worse in CF. How does that work?

 

Gross's 2007 numbers were fairly anomolous in that he looked better relative to the average CF than the average RF. He must have played a great deal better in his limited CF innings, since it is much more difficult to outperform an average major league CF than an average major league RF. If you look at all the outfielders in the projection spreadsheet, a gap of 7-9 runs between the corner outfield projection and CF projection for each player seems fairly standard.