Can we expect Braun to fall off or to gain?

[sheetswannabe]

I dont know if anyone has questioned this. But with an amazing rookie season, is anyone afraid of a falloff? Or do you think he will get even BETTER?

Looking at his minor stats, he was better and better the higher he got, which isnt to usual. Usually when players move up they stay the same or decrease a little because of harder pitching.

So how do you see Braun in 08?

I say .320/.365/.555 38-40 homers 100-120 rbis

[endaround]

He's posed for a falloff. Braun's BABIP was .367 which is likely to come down to closer to the .300-.320 range. If Braun's plat selections get a little better a .300/.375/.550 isn't out of the question.

[trwi7]

I don't think he'll hit .320 like he did this year. .300/.350/.560 with 35-40 homeruns would be my best guess for next year and I'll take that from him anyday of the week.

[TooLiveBrew]

What worries me even more than the expected regression offensively is what that means relative to his D. He's basically going to have to improve more than is reasonably plausible defensively in order to not negate nearly all of his offensive production in 2008. That's downright scary. We can only hope that Ryan will work on his D tirelessly almost literally every day of this offseason, because that's what it's going to take.

 

If his D negated appx. 75% of his offense in 2007, what is it going to do over a full season where he most certainly won't be producing at the insane levels of 2007? *shudders*

[JJHardy7]

I'm not going to get into the defense thing with Braun, since he really hasn't played the position all that long. He'll improve, but how much will be the question.

 

I'm thinking he'll tail off a bit. I expect the same amount of power, but given an entire off-season for pitchers/coaches to try to figure him out I think he'll be seeing some different pitches at times. He really needs to improve his plate discipline or will strike out enough to lower his BA and OBP. Something tells me Ryan is up to the challenge.

 

Also, does anyone know exactly how many runs Braun's errors cost? I'm just wondering if anyone has this number or knows where it is.

[brettac1]

He swings at a lot of bad pitches, and had a high BABIP, so that makes me think he'll definitely fall off a little bit. Plus he never really slumped for more than a few games. He does hit the ball really, really hard, though, so he might be one of those guys who actually can legitmately carry a BABIP above league average consistently. If he starts to lay off the bad pitches that he swung at from time to time, and taking more walks, I think he can come close to what he did in 2007. It's possible that he can have a better season, even if his AVG drops 20 points.

[TooLiveBrew]

Also, does anyone know exactly how many runs Braun's errors cost? I'm just wondering if anyone has this number or knows where it is.

 

There's no way to really tell "exactly," but here are some excerpts from fondybrewerfan's great post to start the Nate Silver's solution to Braun's defense thread (all quotes from Nate Silver):

 

We can also look at a second-generation, play-by-play based metric like the Hardball Times' Revised Zone Rating. According to that statistic, there were five regular defensive players who made at least 10% fewer plays than an average player at their position. Ryan Braun is one of them; in fact he rates at the second-worst defender in baseball relative to his position, ahead of only Manny Ramirez.

 -19.1% Ramirez, LF, BOS

-16.4% Braun, 3B, MIL

-12.0% Encarnacion, 3B, CIN

-13.4% Young, 1B, WAS

-10.7% Sexson, 1B, SEA

-9.5% Fielder, 1B, MIL

-9.3% Bautista, 3B, PIT

-9.2% Atkins, 3B, COL [/pre]...

I don't have Braun's rating in my favorite third-gen metric, UZR, but here's what Mitchel Lichtman had to say about him:

Braun would certainly be the worst [third baseman], if he qualified. Even using zero UZR to make up the games he "missed" he is still probably the worst. That is a shame since he is such a good hitter, and his poor defense takes most (75% or so) of his hitting value away.

Making a few inferences from Mitchel's statements, this would imply that Braun's UZR falls somewhere between Miguel Cabrera's -28, and 75% of his 2007 VORP, which works out to -43. So here again, Braun ranks as one of the worst four or five defensive players in baseball, challenged only by Pat Burrell's -34, Manny Ramirez' -33, and Raul Ibanez' -30. By consensus view, Braun was probably the very worst defensive player in baseball in 2007; the only real competitors for the title might be Ramirez, and perhaps Burrell.

But the question is not so much whether Braun was bad in 2007 - he was awful - but how he's likely to play going forward. Before the season, Braun was regarded anywhere from a somewhat below-average defender at third base to a problematically bad one.

...

Braun, in spite have never played the position professionally, is probably much closer to being an adequate defensive corner outfielder than an adequate defensive third baseman. He runs reasonably well, and while his arm is not accurate, it is probably strong enough to deter baserunners from advancing on him Johnny Damon style.

 

 

You'd have to get into WORP/VORP, etc. to try to crunch out how much his poor fielding (don't just focus on errors, since it's a subjectively recorded stat - and the home scorer is oftentimes friendly to home-team guys) costs in terms of runs. I'm certainly nowhere near being a stats expert, and I recall we have had a discussion (or discussions) before on this forum where others tried to crunch out a kind of answer to your query, JJ7.

[sbrylski]

.290 / .360 / .540 - and that's assuming some improvement in ability.

 

Both his .367 BABIP and his 22.1% HR/FB are not maintainable.

 

EDIT: Well, his HR/FB could be, but I bet it'll fall alittle.

[Roscoe Chill]

This thread reminds me a bit of the thread right after Braun was called up and the majority of posters were expecting 10-15 HRs...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Hope you're all wrong again. But seriously, I don't expect too much of a dropoff.

[dadofandrew]

He's 23, so a dropoff seems unlikely. However, they have learned to pitch him inside and out of the zone, so Ryan will have to make adjustments as well.

[TheBrewer]

Good Year: .325/49HR/125RBI.............Bad Year: .285/32HR/108RBI...............Median: .302/38HR/118RBI

 

Thats if he stays healthy.

 

If he picks up where he left off last season, he could fall under my good year easily. However I think were more likely to see him at the Median in my opinion. And over the course of his entire career that will look like a down year for him.

[JJHardy7]

Just the offensive possibilities are something that's just awesome with Braun. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- give the guy another year in the field. A 3B that can do this offensively and play an ok defense (which has yet to be seen) has incredible value. I know Braun worked with A Rod last off-season, so hopefully A Rod's free agency thing goes pretty quick so the two can get back to Miami and work out together.

[Ennder]

I don't think he'll hit over .300 again but the power seems to be for real.

[Boy Jeenius]

23 year kids get better the more they play. Braun hasn't even played a full season yet. He may put up similar batting stats, but there's a good chance that he'll get smarter at the plate(more disciplined) and his error total will go down. It just amazes me that people forget how young these guys are, and it never dawns on them that they might improve, and improve dramatically.

[Ennder]

For every young kid who gets better there is one who fades. There is no gaurentee that Braun is going to be better next year than this year. In fact the safe money is on him getting worse next year and then growing into last years stats in the future. The fact that his AVG was so flukey as were his splits vs lefties makes me think a regression will happen next year.

[Fatter than Joey]

23 year kids get better the more they play.

 

Generally speaking scouts will tell you that at 23 what you see is what you get.

 

It just amazes me that people forget how young these guys are, and it never dawns on them that they might improve, and improve dramatically.

 

No one here has forgotten how young Braun is, or that players can improve.

 

However -- Braun slugged .200 points against LHP than anyone in the NL last year -- that just isn't going to continue into 2008.

 

What we are talking about is a regression -- when someone says Braun will regress, that is not the same as saying he is going to suck. Just that what he did in ~100 ABs in 2007

(like slug .964 against LHP) is something that should be expected for 2008 and certainly not improved upon.

[mothershipconnection]

It's really hard to predict what a guy like Braun will do. On one hand, you have stats that look like they won't be maintained without sustained luck, but on the other, you have a player on the rise who could progress enough in a year to negate the drop-off caused by the end of fluky results. Decreased luck could be offset by increased performance.

[dadofandrew]

Generally speaking scouts will tell you that at 23 what you see is what you get.

 

100% incorrect. I'd say almost all 23 year-olds improve on some aspects of their game, and many on every aspects. 27 is the accepted peak, so the average 23 year-old is still several years away. Take a gander at BR.com sometime and see how many guys you see who were as good at 23 as they ever were in their career...that's a mighty short list.

[Fatter than Joey]

100% incorrect.

 

No -- That's what scouts have said. Players skills are largely what they are at 23 -- Prince is not going to become a better fielder, get faster, or even get more power.

Certainly players are going to get more experience, and have better/worse years as their careers progress.

 

I'd say almost all 23 year-olds improve on some aspects of their game, and many on every aspects.

 

Sure, I never said absolutely all players peak at 23.

 

Take a gander at BR.com sometime and see how many guys you see who were as good at 23 as they ever were in their career...that's a mighty short list.

 

No problem...

 

AROD

Albert Pujols

Juan Gonzalez

Mark McGwire (counting for Juice)

Willie Mays

Ted Williams

Ken Griffey Jr.

Troy Glaus

Eddie Matthews

Al Kaline

Vada Pinson

Cesar Cedeno

Mel Ott

Bob Horner

Eric Chavez

Fred Lynn

Darryl Strawberry

Boog Powell

Johnny Bench

Will Clark

Don Mattingly

 

and then I got bored -- here's some Brewers

 

Pedro Garcia

Dale Sveum

Danny Walton

Ernie Riles

Pat Listach

etc.

 

Now obviously -- a lot of these players had very long great careers... and I am sure they benefited from experience, but you could see at the age of 23 what sort of player you were getting -- and we shouldn't confuse "career years" as a sign of improvement. I could make this list a lot longer.

[sbrylski]

The data I have (per THT) suggests a 195 lb, college, early round draft pick can be expected to pick up .010-.015 ISO from age 23 to age 25 on average.

[Fatter than Joey]

The data I have (per THT) suggests a 195 lb, college, early round draft pick can be expected to pick up .010-.015 from age 23 to age 25 on average

 

Of what?

[sbrylski]

Of what?

 

Whoops, sorry. ISO. I edited in there.

 

And early round means 1st and 2nd.

[Fatter than Joey]

does it say from 25-27?

[sbrylski]

does it say from 25-27?

 

No. The data is from an article in their 2007 Annual, so I can't link to it or anything. They have graphs that break down players by weight and pedigree (HS, College, Int.) and show their ISO progressions from ages 21-25. By the time they reach age 25, they are is still trending upwards slightly, but starting to flatline - moreso with some than others. By a player's weight, like you'd expect, lighter guys don't gain much power after age 23, but heavier players do. By pedigree, college players ISO's increase the fastest.

 

The study included all ISO's of players playing in single-A or higher before age 22, and it league and park adjusts the data.

 

This analysis, even with the breakdown by characterists, is still general, as we know a lot more about Ryan Braun than just his weight and if he went to college. But it definately states most guys will continue to improve their power deep into their 20's.

 

EDIT: A bit of a grammer nightmare I had going on there...

[Fatter than Joey]

What would you define as "heavier"?

 

Assuming that Braun is "heavy" -- a .010 increase (assuming linear improvement) would equal about .75 HR a year -- or 35 HRs at the age of 24 and about 36 HRs at 25. (for a 450 ABs) -- Assuming my math isn't messed up -- I would certainly contend that this improvement could certainly fall into the "you get what you see", i.e. you dont have 20 HR guys hitting 40 jacks, or 30 HR guys hitting 50. Again -- no one said players do not improve at all, ever.

 

Could the increase in ISO come at the expense of BA/OBP, in this study?