What About Mike Cameron / Cameron suspended

[billyhallfan]

I think everyone would agree that the defense on this team needs to be improved, so why not look at a player like Cameron. I think Someone else brought this up a while ago, but it makes sense. He has had some injury problems but I think he is the perfect player for this team. If Melvin and Yost weren't so stubborn, they could make the defense better at a few positions by signing Cameron.

 

LF Braun

CF Cameron

RF Hart

3B Hall

 

I think this is a cheaper alternative to signing Fukudome and he is still productive, he does strikeout a little, but no more than Hall or Jenkins did/does, I think he would be a great aquisition and might sign for 3y/$20

[dadofandrew]

Nothing improves the defense more than moving guys all around...Hall proved that early on, but did fine thereafter.

 

Cameron might well fall under the radar due to the other CF's on the market. He would not be a bad guy to focus on early, while the other clubs are stringing him along as a fallback.

[don1481]

Cameron might well fall under the radar due to the other CF's on the market. He would not be a bad guy to focus on early, while the other clubs are stringing him along as a fallback.

 

Al, Cameron brings flashbacks to the hunt for Brian Roberts. Absolutely not, under no circumstances, should Cameron - at age 34 - be considered. For the kind of performance Cameron gave last season, I'd rather have Jenkins.

[RyDogg66]

Cameron might well fall under the radar due to the other CF's on the market. He would not be a bad guy to focus on early, while the other clubs are stringing him along as a fallback.

Al, Cameron brings flashbacks to the hunt for Brian Roberts. Absolutely not, under no circumstances, should Cameron - at age 34 - be considered. For the kind of performance Cameron gave last season, I'd rather have Jenkins.

I assume you mean Dave Roberts.

And Al, I respectfully disagree about improving defense and moving people around. Hall is a natural IF and I doubt he has forgotten how to play the IF. Braun stinks out louda and if Manny and Carlos Lee and Mench can play LF, so can he, and Cameron would be our best defensive player. So moving guys only hurts when you move them to more difficult positions, or unnatural ones. I would guess that after 1b, LF would be about the easiest position for Braun to play. By making a move like the OP suggested we would improve the defense in CF and 3b while probably staying the same in LF.

[dadofandrew]

Cameron has never played in a hitter's park in his life. His career away numbers show his true offensive potential, and while his D has leveled off, he's still solid.

 

Career away--.345/.464, 809 OPS, 160 OXS

2007 away----.341/.449, 790 OPS, 153 OXS

 

Mike's "falloff" is about 90% Petco Park related. He's still well above average for a CF, though Hall would be less valuable as a LF.

[don1481]

Cameron has never played in a hitter's park in his life. His career away numbers show his true offensive potential, and while his D has leveled off, he's still solid.

 

Even 3 years ago I would have considered Cameron as a suitable candidate, but again - he's 34. His away splits from 2004-2006 feature a .820 OPS; his 2007 away splits feature a .790 OPS. Again, meh. He's on the downside of his career; while veterans could help this young team with leadership, I don't think I see him being much of an offensive upgrade. Defensively, yeah, he's still very good but... do we really need another guy that can whiff close to 150 times in a season playing everyday...?

 

[dadofandrew]

820 to 790 is standard deviance. He is unlikely to improve, but worrying about a few bloopers that did not fall in doesn't make sense to me.

[don1481]

820 to 790 is standard deviance. He is unlikely to improve, but worrying about a few bloopers that did not fall in doesn't make sense to me.

 

Yes, it's statistically within a standard deviance, but that's not the point here. The point is that Cameron is 34 and it's not just that he's unlikely to improve, it's that he's more and more likely to worsen. And really - an OPS in that range isn't all that special nor a big upgrade from what Jenkins/Mench provided. And that's the whole point of this exercise - to upgrade the LF position until LaPorta (or whomever) is ready.

 

Given the fact that Jenkins has a one-year option and Cameron would most likely be seeing one last big (multi-year) payday, I'd rather exercise the option and reassess the situation after the '08 season than sign Cameron to a multi-year deal that would probably cost a good fraction per year of Jenkins' option and tie up more money unnecessarily when it comes time to start paying up for the young, arby-eligible talent.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers already have Mike Cameron and his name is Bill Hall. Offensively, they are virtually the same player only one is 7 years younger and signed to a fairly reasonable contract.

 

Hall will never be the defensive player Cameron is, but he made enough strides in one year that I don't think the Brewers are looking at Cameron.

[DHonks]

Billyhallfan, you're forgetting how awful Hall used to be in the IF defensively. He improved dramatically. Same for Weeks. I don't see why Braun can't improve, seeing as he's got phenomenal range and great arm strength.

[ILuvDaBush]

Why not just keep Hall in center and put Cameron in left? He's a superb defender, and has played left before in his career. Also, given his agem it would probably prolong his career a bit and allow him to focus on his offense.

[billyhallfan]

Billyhallfan, you're forgetting how awful Hall used to be in the IF defensively. He improved dramatically. Same for Weeks. I don't see why Braun can't improve, seeing as he's got phenomenal range and great arm strength.

 

I guess that is true, but I am getting sick of waiting, if someone would just pony up some cash, this team could go really far next year. Braun moving to LF shouldn't be that hard, Hall already knows how to play third, so you are really only having one guy learn probably the easiest position on the field. In my opinion, that makes you above-average at two positions, center and right, and then Hall would be serviceable at third, that makes the defense a lot better, and Braun won't have to cover all that much because Cameron can cover a lot of ground. I guess I'm just not content with "hoping" Braun can get better.

 

Why not just keep Hall in center and put Cameron in left? He's a superb defender, and has played left before in his career. Also, given his agem it would probably prolong his career a bit and allow him to focus on his offense.

 

That would make no sense, why put your best outfielder in left, that is where your worst outfielder goes, not your player with more range than anyone else on the team.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

LF Braun
CF Cameron
RF Hart
3B Hall

I agree 100% that if fixing the defense is the goal, Mike Cameron is the player to get and this is the positional alignment to use. He might even be available for a reasonable contract, what with Jones, Hunter, and Rowand commanding most of the attention at his position.

As for his hitting, his established performance record is quite clear. He's a slightly above average hitter. He's one of the most consistent hitters in baseball (by that I mean consistently slightly above average). Here are his last half dozen OPS+: 109, 108, 104, 114, 121, 103. Sure, he might fall off a cliff any year now, but that's true with practically any veteran FA. The trick is to only sign the ones who will take shorter contracts. Cameron might only need a 3 or 4 year deal, though I suppose he'll try to better the hideous contracts given to Juan Pierre and Gary Mathews, Jr. last offseason, which were for 5 and 6 years, IIRC. He may find that all the suitors willing to go that high wind up signing Jones, Hunter, and Rowand.

[JJHardy7]

Is anyone concerned at all that moving Hall to 3B might not be a natural transition? Is he going to pick it up where he was? And it's not like he was a gold glove there to begin with.

[BrewCityUnit]

I would love to add Mike Cameron. I have been asking for this for atleast 3 years now.

[billyhallfan]

Is anyone concerned at all that moving Hall to 3B might not be a natural transition? Is he going to pick it up where he was? And it's not like he was a gold glove there to begin with.

 

Why should anyone be, has he forgotten how to field a ground ball? He was never a gold glover, but Cameron is, and would probably be the only one on the team, Hall would be solid, I don't know what the concern would be. Braun may be pathetic in left, but certaintly not any worse than Dunn, or Duncan...

[JJHardy7]

I think 3B is a little more difficult than just fielding a ground ball. I don't think there's anyway the Brewers move Hall to the infield in 2008. It would pretty much waste all the time the Brewers invested in Hall and a waste of production (for those that believe his offensive slump was due to a position change). Hall can play CF.

 

I'm not a big fan of moving Braun, but I really think if they do want to move him in 2009 they should get a 3B and not tinker with moving guys around.

[billyhallfan]

obviously it is more difficult than that. And yes it won't happen, because Melvin and Yost want to stick with their plan, but the defense on this team is bad, too bad to win, it costed them way too many games last year, and I'm not content with "hoping" they will get better because they are young. Yes Hall can play center, no one doubts that, but he can also play third, Braun can play left. If these moves happen, and Cameron is signed. You are above average, at center, right, and short. As opposed to being above average in right and short. And Cameron covers a lot of ground so Braun wouldn't have to do that much in LF. Why exactly are you against moving Braun?

[JJHardy7]

I have a number of reasons. I'm not saying he should never be moved, but here they are...

 

1. He's played 3B less than 2 years.

2. The Brewers moved Hall so Braun can play third. They wouldn't have done this if they didn't believe he could play 3B. Moving Hall to CF was risky, so I'm assuming the Brewers knew what they were getting into -- so I guess I trust the Brewers here.

3. It's difficult to find a 3B who can hit as well as Braun. Yes, he'd be a great offensive player no matter where he plays, but in my opinion OFs are easier to find than 3B.

4. Braun has made great plays in the field -- this shows me he has the physical tools to play 3B.

5. Prince Fielder is at 1B. No matter what our infield consists of each player will have more errors due to Prince's physical limitations (ie there will be more throwing errors).

6. Some posters have stated that Braun only won us a few more games. I love statistics, but I think this one is dead wrong. Insert Counsell or Graffy in for the whole year and there's no way we finish with the win total we did. Just my opinion.

7. Matt LaPorta. If we follow my opinion that Hall won't be moved, what do we do when we have LaPorta, Hall, and Hart? This would lead to moving players all over the field and/or trading one of these guys before we'd like to.

8. He's 23. He's not 26 or 27.

9. If you want to replace Braun at 3B, get a great fielder. Bill Hall is not a great fielder.

10. Why can Hall easily move back to 3B? I'm not saying he won't be able to match what he did, but how much time are we going to spend for him to get back into the grove -- of being an average 3B.

 

These are just my opinions, but I believe keeping Braun and Weeks at their respective positions is huge. I think they have the physical skills to develop. Maybe not, but if they do we have two of the most difficult positions filled with young, powerful bats. I don't think this is easy to find.

[billyhallfan]

He's played 3B less than 2 years.

 

Actually it has been three years, he played it his last year of college which was 2005, then at BC and Huntsville in 2006, and Nashville and Milwaukee in 2007.

 

The Brewers moved Hall so Braun can play third. They wouldn't have done this if they didn't believe he could play 3B. Moving Hall to CF was risky, so I'm assuming the Brewers knew what they were getting into -- so I guess I trust the Brewers here.

 

Then why wasn't Braun up in April, yes they moved him for Braun, but Braun's defense has been erratic and when he was drafted, it was thought that he should move to the outfield, keeping Braun at third because it is what they wanted is not smart, if something doesn't work, it needs to be fixed, being stubborn and sticking with a decision like this one will cost the Brewers games

 

It's difficult to find a 3B who can hit as well as Braun. Yes, he'd be a great offensive player no matter where he plays, but in my opinion OFs are easier to find than 3B.

Who do you propose to play left then?

 

Braun has made great plays in the field -- this shows me he has the physical tools to play 3B.

Ben Hendrickson had the tools to be a great pitcher too, what is your point?

 

Prince Fielder is at 1B. No matter what our infield consists of each player will have more errors due to Prince's physical limitations (ie there will be more throwing errors).

 

This is true, which is exactly why Braun should be moved to make the rest of the defense better, Hall is not great, but would do better, it is wrong to be content with the way it is and say, Prince is bad, so the whole IF will be bad, do you think Mike Lowell would have as many errors just because of Fielder, no.

 

Matt LaPorta. If we follow my opinion that Hall won't be moved, what do we do when we have LaPorta, Hall, and Hart? This would lead to moving players all over the field and/or trading one of these guys before we'd like to.

 

He will play 1B when Fielder heads to New York.

 

He's 23. He's not 26 or 27.

 

Your point?

[biedergb]

billyhallfan wrote:

 

Then why wasn't Braun up in April, yes they moved him for Braun, but Braun's defense has been erratic and when he was drafted, it was thought that he should move to the outfield, keeping Braun at third because it is what they wanted is not smart, if something doesn't work, it needs to be fixed, being stubborn and sticking with a decision like this one will cost the Brewers games

This argument was used in regards to Weeks a couple of years ago. He has improved, and while not a Gold Glover (and doubtful the phrase will associated with him anytime soon) he a acquitted management for sticking with him. Granted we need to win now, but Braun is a superior offensive threat and if he improves some then he will go from liability to below average defensively, and that's something that I can live with given the potential make-up of the rest of the team.

 

 

Who do you propose to play left then?

A stop gap/free agent next year, and LaPorta/Gamel down the road.

 

 

He will play 1B when Fielder heads to New York.

Hopefully Prince is still here in 2008-2010 (when LaPorta hopefully arrives), and not traded to NY once his arby years begin.

 

 

He's 23. He's not 26 or 27.

 

Your point?

He's young and has a chance to improve. It's not like he's been playing 3B in the minors/bigs for several years and can't cut it. Given time he has a chance to adjust to the speed of the game and get better.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I want to attempt to use existing data to quantify the improvement that we might reasonably project for the Brewers' defense if Cameron is signed to play CF, Hall is moved back to 3B, and Braun is moved to LF. I'm going to use the numbers I posted in the statistical analysis forum. 2007 runs saved were derived by combining STATS and BIS zone data. 2008 projections are based on 4 years worth of STATS & BIS data, age adjusted and regressed to the mean.

 

First, what did we look like in 2007, in terms of our regular positional players (excluding catchers, who generally aren't included in advanced fielding metrics)?

 

1B.....-10 (Fielder)

2B.....-10 (Weeks)

3B.....-24 (Braun)

SS.....-5 (Hardy)

LF.....+8 (Menchkins)

CF.....-8 (Hall)

RF.....+5 (Hart)

TOTAL.....-44 RUNS

 

Assuming we stand pat and use Gross in place of Jenkins, here's what our projected 2008 defense would look like, using the methodology described above:

 

1B.....-6 (Fielder)

2B.....-16 (Weeks)

3B.....-17 (Braun)

SS.....-1 (Hardy)

LF.....+3 (Grench estimate)

CF.....-14 (Hall)

RF.....+5 (Hart)

TOTAL.....-46 RUNS

 

Braun is helped by age adjustment and regression to the mean, but including data from 2006 and earlier really hurts projections for Weeks. Somehow Hall projects to be worse in 2008 as well. With both players, you're basically seeing bad 3/4 seasons projected out to full seasons. The net result is that the defense projects to be just as bad in 2008, even if Braun makes a moderate improvement.

 

I think it should be obvious that something has to be done. Let's say we go with CF-Cameron, 3B-Hall, LF-Braun, as previously mentioned. It's easy enough to grab Cameron's 2008 projection for CF (+3). What can we use for Hall and Braun at their new positions, since the data I'm using doesn't project players for positions they didn't play this year? Let's first look at how the rest of the defense shakes out:

 

1B.....-6 (Fielder)

2B.....-16 (Weeks)

3B.....??? (Hall)

SS.....-1 (Hardy)

LF.....??? (Braun)

CF.....+3 (Cameron)

RF.....+5 (Hart)

TOTAL.....-15 RUNS

 

I don't know if Hall and Braun could be average at their new positions, but it's not insane to hope for that. Hall was around an average SS in 2006 according to most advanced metrics. IIRC, PMR even had him well above average. Braun's moving to the 2nd easiest defensive position, and it's not unreasonable to think that his speed and athleticism could make him an average fielder at a position where Manny Ramirez, Carlos Lee, Adam Dunn (etc etc) play. Even if you think they'll struggle at their new positions, recognize that they'd have to be 31 runs worse than average combined for the defense to be as bad as it would be without the shuffle. I just can't see that happening. Pessimistically, I'd put Hall at -5 runs and Braun at -10 runs using this alignment. That still leaves the overall defense 16 runs better than with Braun at 3B and Hall in CF.

[JJHardy7]

I still don't see this. I think I might have to agree to disagree here, but I want the number of runs Braun's defense cost us in 2007 (I know it's hard/impossible to get). I say we give him another year. Based on the stats above we should also move Rickie Weeks. He's only 23 -- teams aren't going to switch him after less than a full year in the bigs. It won't happen. My question with the stats above...Why is Hall getting so much worse in 2008? If that is really the case, than maybe Hall should be put somewhere else.

 

My question still is...given the drafting of LaPorta do you think the Brewers are simply going to move Braun to a corner spot and block LaPorta? We all knew Braun needed more time in the minors to play 3B. I don't think his defense in this bigs was all that shocking. I am happy the Brewers gave him a shot in 2007 in the bigs.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I want the number of runs Braun's defense cost us in 2007 (I know it's hard/impossible to get).

 

It's my belief that the -24 figure you see above is as close as you're likely to get using current methods.

 

Based on the stats above we should also move Rickie Weeks.

 

We probably should, but I don't think Weeks's numbers would get much better with a move to 3B (he's pretty close to the opposite of the kind of player you'd want to move from 2B to 3B), so that leaves only the OF. It is my opinion that the Brewers picked the wrong infielder to try to convert into a CF last year, but we have no way of really knowing whether Weeks would have been better or worse than Hall in CF. We're out of corner OF spots if we move Braun. We could move Weeks to CF instead of signing Cameron, but he'd likely go through the same learning curve Hall went through last year. I think we're pretty stuck with our right side of the infield being lousy defensively - we need to try to get better in other areas to offset this area of weakness.

 

Why is Hall getting so much worse in 2008?

 

I don't have a great answer to this question. My best guess is that he and Weeks both get 6 runs worse largely as a consequence of projecting partial 2007 seasons (around 3/4 of the available playing time for each) out to full 2008 seasons, and don't benefit as much as Braun from age adjustment / regression to the mean. Even if you give Hall's projection a 6 run boost and project him to equal his 2007 contribution, I still think that you have to move him back to the infield if you can get a bonafide plus defender in CF like Cameron.

 

My question still is...given the drafting of LaPorta do you think the Brewers are simply going to move Braun to a corner spot and block LaPorta?

 

I don't really think that the Brewers are considering moving Braun. My position is that they should be. Blocking LaPorta is a problem, since it looks like he's likely to arrive no later than opening day 2009 - but I'd let that be a problem for next offseason. In the meantime, we've got a division to win.

[JJHardy7]

I'd like to thank biedergb for his support on this one. I really don't see why my comments are so outrageous and I think some of the comments back towards me were condescending.

To recap....

 

1. Braun played 3B for 3 years? He switched in the middle of his last college year. Technically it's more closer to 2 1/2 years (and the fact that college teams play even less than the pros and the draft process would make it 2 1/4). That's not a long time by any standard in baseball. That is clearly my point that with more time he will evolve or we can make a decision.

2. Why wasn't Braun up in April? His defense. It wasn't big league ready, but the Brewers needed a bat. Imagine the Crew without Braun's bat. If you like that picture, this is a different discussion. Braun was not supposed to be called up this early. The Brewers knew his defense needed work.

3. Stop gap. We didn't put up amazing numbers in LF this year, so I really don't see the big-time need. Maybe an actual player with more experience in the OF than Braun? LaPorta will be on the 25 man most of 2009 if everything goes well. So where does he play? Not on the bench.

4. The Hendrickson comment doesn't really mean anything. Did Hendrickson show flashes of anything in the bigs? Comparing a pitcher to a fielder is not fair in my opinion.

5. The Prince Fielder comment is based strictly on the fact that a guy like Helton would reduce errors. If you want a team that can play great defense, that is fine, but maybe we should put Prince in the OF to do that?

6. Fielder is going to New York before LaPorta gets here? That would really upset Brewers fans since we can control him a lot longer than the point in which LaPorta gets to Milwaukee?

7. He's 23. He's young. I think younger guys have more of a chance to evolve/develop than younger guys. That's the point.

 

I'd like to add a few things....

 

billyhallfan...I don't know what you do for a living, but I thought putting it in our terms (ie not big time baseball players or employees) might help. Do you think Doug Melvin has any kind of ego? Not only do most GMs in any sport have one, but also corporate employees (I don't blame them at all) They are not going to move Braun after less than a full year in the bigs and move Hall from CF back to 3B....why? It would make them look stupid. My boss doesn't want to look stupid. They'll stick with it.

 

Braun's bat. I for one had a great baseball year as a fan watching the kid. So much is made here about his horrible defense. I don't want to be mean, but can't we enjoy a rookie year? It may possibly be the greatest offensive rookie year in the history of baseball (remember -- rookie) and we want to move him to a different position.

 

Comparisons -- from an offensive standpoint -- if Bill Hall doesn't rebound he's a horrible choice at 3B. Horrible. A guy that got benched down the stretch will now play everyday? If they would make this move, Counsell would be playing a lot more.

 

Hall -- Was he that bad in CF? I don't think so. I guess this question is clearly an opinion. One could argue that Hall will be better in CF than he was at 3B.

 

I don't see why moving Braun is a huge thing on this board. I really don't. I've talk to Frank Kremblas (being a Brewers fan in Tennessee allows you to talk with coaches and players since they love fans who actually follow baseball) and he told me Braun will be fine. He said the Brewers aren't shocked with how he played in the bigs, but they were shocked with his offense. They didn't expect that. So since the Brewers aren't hating his defense, he won't be moved. He's 23. I think that his huge and in any walk of life leads to my thinking...he can only get better.