Reactions to the Doug Melvin interview

[splitterpfj]

In case you missed it, the interview is being discussed here.

 

Doug mentioned wanting to add OBP to the LF position, he said he'd prefer less Ks, but that Ks don't bother him if the OBP is there, he mentioned Grady Sizemore as a great example of this. He was also quite surprised that someone had recently told him the Brewers have never had a 100 BB player, and mentioned that drawing walks is golden.

 

With that in mind, here are the outfielders who had at least a .350 OBP in 2007 (minimum 400 ABs):

 

Ryan Church (ok, he was at .349), Andre Ethier, Raul Ibanez, David DeJesus, Johnny Damon, Shawn Green, Randy Winn, Mark Teahen, Corey Hart (although I doubt we'll trade for him), Jose Guillen, Carlos Beltran, Eric Byrnes, Alex Rios, Carlos Lee, Austin Kearns, Carl Crawford, Marlon Byrd, Michael Cuddyer, Luis Gonzalez, Hunter Pence, Curtis Granderson, Brian Giles, Nick Markakis, Josh Willingham, Hideki Matsui, Kenny Lofton, Jeremy Hermida, Bobby Abreu, Ken Griffey, JD Drew, Aaron Rowand, Nick Swisher, BJ Upton, Adam Dunn, Brad Hawpe, Manny Ramirez, Reggie Willits, Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki, Pat Burrell, Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Holliday, Magglio Ordonez.

 

OK, 43 of them for 30 teams to share, and one of them is already here. Knock out the guys like Ichiro and Beltran, etc, even if you stretch it a little, the list of maybes is basically:

 

Church, Ethier, Ibanez, DeJesus, Damon, Green, Winn, Teahen, Guillen, Rios, Kearns, Crawford, Byrd, Cuddyer, Gonzalez, Giles, Willingham, Matsui, Lofton, Hermida, Abreu, Swisher, Dunn, Hawpe, Willits, and Burrell.

 

From the sounds of it, the starting infield will return intact, with Hart and Hall in center and right. Bullpen help is needed, and catcher is a maybe....what's your deal to fill LF, and put this team in the playoffs?

[sheetswannabe]

If we got Justin Upton, I would flip. But no way the "Rays" trade him because hes only 23. I would LOVE, Mark Teahen, Shawn Green, Kenny Lofton, Pat Burrell.

Who do I see coming? I expect Austin Kearns.

[sbrylski]

Yea Kearns! I'd love Kearns as well, as noted previously. 378 OBP away from RFK over his last 2 seasons.

[trwi7]

I still think it's going to be Kenny Lofton. Doug mentioned 60 walks and 60 strikeouts and Lofton had 56 walks and 51 strikeouts this year. He'd be a perfect 2 hitter for us. I'd be cool with Kearns though.

[recte44]

Kearns would be good, but I'd so prefer Carl Crawford. If we can find a way to get him without dealing Yo or Villy (Bill Hall, anyone?- the Rays a desparate for a SS), you have to do it.

[JohnBriggs12]

Kearns may have a good OBP, but remember that was batting in the 5th spot in the Nationals order. It's a lot tougher drawing walks in the 2nd spot batting just ahead of Braun and Fielder so I'd rather have a higher average guy in that spot than Kearns.

 

So Kearns doesn't really solve the need for a number 2 hitter. Besides, an everyday lineup with Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Hall, Braun, and Kearns, leaves Prince and Estrada as the only lefthanded bats vs. righthanders and until Estrada proves he's healthy do we even know he can be counted on? Righthanders would pitch around Prince even more.

[brewerfan82]

I'd give up Villy, Hall, +prospects for Crawford... easily. His contract is awesome: 5.25M ('08), 8.25M Team Option ('09), 10-11.5M Team Option ('10). And then also pick up Lofton.

 

Lofton, Weeks, Crawford, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Estrada/Miller, Hardy... mmm...

[Klements Bratwurst]

How about Reggie Willits? In terms of OBP, He had a pretty good year last year, albeit his first real action in the bigs. However his track record in the minor leagues would indicate that he has a track record of being able to get on base at a decent clip (2006 Salt Lake -77 BB's 50 K's before being called to the big club).

 

He can play all three outfield defensive postions, and generally steals bases at a mid 70% clip. He is like Tony Gwynn Jr, but he gets on base at a much better rate than little Gwynn does or ever did in the Minors. He doesn't slug alot, but I am not sure that is something we need anymore with the other big boppers in the Brewers lineup.

 

Problem is, he is young and cheap for the Angels. I have no idea if we are a match for them or not. He may be untouchable for all I know.

[Robideaux]

Carl Crawford is a very good player, but he is not as good in real life as he is in fantasy baseball. If we could get him for peanuts, I'd love to have him on the Brewers, but he is overrated because the things he excels at (BA, SB) are flashy and overvalued in relation to the impact they have on winning games. His season high walk total is 37, which means his OBP is almost entirely tied into his batting average. If he slips back to a 295 hitter for a season, he becomes much less valuable. I haven't looked into his defense, but I would assume that he is pretty good based solely on the eyeball test(not that I've seen that many Rays games). That would be nice, but if you traded Hall/Villy for him, you would be losing a #3/4 starter and your starting CF,and you would be replacing them with a LF who isn't all that much better than Hall. (Crawford has never had a year as good as Hall's 2006 season). Would I trade Hall straight up for Crawford? In a heartbeat, but that's not going to happen. Unfortunately, although Crawford is not a superstar, but he will be valued like one. I wouldn't pay nearly what Tampa Bay would be asking.

 

How about one of these guys:

Josh Willingham

Pat Burrell

Raul Ibanez

[Oldcity]

Kearns may have a good OBP, but remember that was batting in the 5th spot in the Nationals order. It's a lot tougher drawing walks in the 2nd spot batting just ahead of Braun and Fielder so I'd rather have a higher average guy in that spot than Kearns.

 

So Kearns doesn't really solve the need for a number 2 hitter.

I personally don't see a problem with Kearns hitting two. Hardy hit there most of the year (granted, the goal is to upgrade the two-spot from Hardy). If average is your concern though, I suppose Hart hitting second and Kearns fifth is feasible.

 

[endaround]

Burrell has a no trade clause so it would take a contract extension to land him. Not likely to happen (ditto for Dunn and Griffey).

[splitterpfj]

I'd like to see a lefty 2 hitter in this spot, I think a one-year deal with Lofton makes as much sense as anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers went for Church and Cordero in a deal with Washington.

 

I'd like to get Crawford, but I do think he is somewhat overrated, I would not give up Villy.

[brewerfan82]

I think the differences of opinion when it comes to Crawford are due to how we each value potential.

 

Crawford just finished his age 25 year and has been an all-star twice already (albeit being on TB may have helped). Compare what he's done in his career so far to what Billy did through his age 25 year:

 

Bill Hall ('02 - '05 thru age 25 year)

.265/.310/.442/.751 - 31/15 SB (67.39 SB%) - 32 HR (33.41 AB/HR) - 12 3B (89.08 AB/3B) - 69 2B (15.49 AB/2B) - 69 BB (15.49 AB/BB) - 263 K (8.48 AB/K)

 

Bill Hall ('06 - '07 age 26 year thru age 27 year)

.263/.332/.494/.826 - 12/14 SB (46.15 SB%) - 49 HR (20.18 AB/HR) - 4 3B (247.25 AB/3B) - 74 2B (13.36 AB/2B) - 69 BB (9.60 AB/BB) - 263 K (3.41 AB/K)

Carl Crawford ('02 - '07 thru age 25 year)

.296/.331/.439/.770 - 277/57 SB (82.93 SB%) - 62 HR (53.92 AB/HR) - 74 3B (45.18 AB/3B) - 145 2B (23.06 AB/2B) - 166 BB (20.14 AB/BB) - 505 K (6.62 AB/K)

 

Carl Crawford ('04 - '07 age 22 year thru age 25 year)

.304/.341/.467/.808 - 213/42 SB (83.53 SB%) - 55 HR (44.62 AB/HR) - 59 3B (41.59 AB/3B) - 116 2B (21.16 AB/2B) - 131 BB (18.73 AB/BB) - 362 (6.78 AB/K)

 

I agree though that Crawford's not the "professional hitter" Melvin said he's looking for, but he's not much worse than Bill when it comes to BB and K rates.

 

You never know for sure, but Crawford's just entering what should be the prime of his career and he may be about ready to bust out some ridiculous numbers. Having a guy like while he's 26-28 years old could be tremendous.

 

Maybe putting Villy in the deal is a little much on our end, but I think you'd have to in order to pull this guy away from TB. And while I'd hate to lose CV I think we've got the depth in the rotation to pull it off (and for whatever reason, I still feel like Villy's playing over his head... but that's pure opinion and based on mostly gut feeling)

 

But I digress http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

My pet solution to the LF problem is a vet FA who will likely come pretty cheap. I'll save the name as a surprise at the end of the post, because many would probably stop reading if I started the post by saying who it is.

 

Here's his rate stats for the last 4 full seasons:

 

03......321 / 421 / 501

04......267 / 362 / 424 (pitcher's park)

05......290 / 350 / 484 (pitcher's park)

06......276 / 370 / 447 (pitcher's park)

07......306 / 402 / 545 (split between 2 pitcher's parks)

 

He's 30 and fairly athletic. Rep as a good defender, especially as a corner OF. A very smart GM who values defense alot (especially lately) thought enough of him to let the manager use him in CF as recently as this season. Also a switch hitter who is approximately equally effective from both sides of the plate.

 

Interested yet?

 

How can I rationally claim that a player with such a performance record could possibly come "pretty cheap"?

 

Answer: He's Milton Bradley.

[splitterpfj]

I'm only interested in Bradley when I'm sure that his knee has healed. Not only was that possibly the most bizarre injury in baseball history, it was severe.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

That's just it - check rotoworld's note on Bradley's injury:

 

Milton Bradley may need surgery to remove "loose bodies" from his right elbow, according to general manager Kevin Towers.

Bradley, a free agent this winter, is currently recovering from surgery to repair a torn ACL and MCL. He is going to struggle to be healthy for spring training and may need to sign a one-year deal to prove his health.

 

Due to his injury, injury history, and well, insanity, there might be next to no market for the guy. 1 year, 3 million might be enough. High-risk, sure. But extremely high upside (especially at that cost). He also can be pushed aside easily whenever LaPorta arrives.

 

[sheetswannabe]

To tell you the truth, I dont think Laporta will be playing in 08. He only played what, 23 games in single A. Sure he did good, but come on. I think we need a player who WILL play all year, and not a basketcase like Bradley, we dont need to bring negative attitude on to a young team. Get Kearns, or sign Lofton, get it done DM!!!

[SoCalBrewfan]

He also can be pushed aside easily whenever LaPorta arrives.

 

I wouldn't push him too hard. With a particularly vigorous shove, he might get hurt, get mad, or both.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I wouldn't push him too hard. With a particularly vigorous shove, he might get hurt, get mad, or both.

 

Well played, sir.

[TooLiveBrew]

How about one of these guys:
Josh Willingham
Pat Burrell
Raul Ibanez

I like it a lot Robideaux -- I've been wondering on Willingham basically since the regular season ended. 2008 will be his age 29 season, but I'm not sure on his contract situation. I've checked Cot's, but can't tell if he's still eligible for arbitration. Given that his total ML service time is just over 2 seasons, I'd guess he's still under team control for at least one year.

He's got solid OBP, and it's no fluke - his BB totals in the minors were very good. 2007 was only his 2d full-time season, so I'd expect to see his ML plate discipline continue to improve (his BBs jumped from 54 in '06 to 66 last year, with roughly the same AB total - 521 in '07 to 502 in '06). He came up to the bigs as a catcher, so having him in the fold would be extra insurance at that position, too - that ever-elusive '3d catcher' about whom Ned loves to daydream.

My only question on W-ham is his defense in the OF. He made some nice plays against us this past year in FLA, but I don't want to let that be my determinent. I'd assume that he has a plus arm (just bc he was a C prospect), but don't know for sure. He doesn't look too great when combining RZR + OOZ, but we always talk about how confusing defensive metrics can be.

[yoshii8]

I wonder if the Dodgers would be a good matchup w/ us. I would really like to have Andre Ethier as our leftfielder. He is only 25, is a good outfielder, and has a career .821 OPS hitting in a pitchers park. I think he would be a very good pickup.

[rpmeehan]

Doug mentioned wanting to add OBP to the LF position, he said he'd prefer less Ks, but that Ks don't bother him if the OBP is there...

For the good of the Brewers, I am willing to make the switch from second base to left field. I think the OBP numbers speak for themselves:

 

https://mywebspace.wisc.edu/dnhaueter/web/Rockers/batting-meehan.html

[dadofandrew]

Why would LA give up Ethier? He's cheap and effective, and still improving.

 

Ryan, tell us, how many walks were just because the pitchers were terrible?

[colbyjack]

Milton Bradley, similar to Kenny Rogers a couple of offseasons ago, could very well be one of the bigger steals of this year's free agent class. I believe it was two years ago when Rogers value was down after his incident with the camera man had people questioning his character.

 

It seems like it is up to homer and me to bring up Fukudome's name whenever we get a chance. He really would be a perfect fit for the Brewers given the kind of hitter he's projected to be in MLB (decent average, high OBP, lots of doubles), although I doubt the Brewers get involved, as they seem to have left field reserved for LaPorta, meaning a stop-gap for the next year or two is a more likely option, at least for left field. I still have a feeling Hall could be one of the bigger named players dealt this offseason which could prompt Hart being moved to CF leaving the Brewers with two corner OF spots that need to be filled. Hall is one of the bigger OBP culprits in the lineup.

 

Kearns may have a good OBP, but remember that was batting in the 5th spot in the Nationals order. It's a lot tougher drawing walks in the 2nd spot batting just ahead of Braun and Fielder so I'd rather have a higher average guy in that spot than Kearns.

 

I think Kearns is a good enough hitter to not only continue to draw his fair share of walks in the 2-hole, but to also feast on the number of fastballs he likely would get hitting in front of Braun and Fielder. That is if he is indeed hitting second, as I could see him continue to hit 5th or 6th.

 

I still think Kearns is the best fit among the names that have been tossed around before, and trying to find a way to get Chad Cordero as well could solve two holes with one move (although the price would definitely be steep).

[splitterpfj]

I agree on Fukudome, Colby, I left him out because I really don't think the Brewers will be the highest bidder. He'd be an awesome addition, he's got the hitting skills, and he also has an outstanding arm.