"Experts" already handing the WS trophy to the Red Sox

[Fear The Chorizo]

Gotta love the Booyah network's East coast, large market team, Berman's rooting interest biases on full display over the past few days. Sure, the Red Sox are a good team and have a very good chance to win the World Series - but they've been acting like they're playing a series against one of their minor league affiliates. Many of their so-called baseball experts have Boston winning in 4 or 5 games.

 

History has a way of repeating itself, and this series looks almost exactly like the the Marlins-Yankees world series several years ago...you know, the one that the Marlins had no chance to win?

 

The interesting parallel is that the Red Sox had to scratch and claw their way through a tough 7-game series against the Indians (much like what the Yankees had to do against Boston back in 2003). They now face a team that is largely unknown by anyone outside of Colorado (much like the Marlins in 2003) who everyone assumes got to the World Series as a fluke team who caught all the breaks. In reality, both the Marlins of 2003 and the Rockies of 2007 were the best second-half teams during their respective World Series runs, but went largely unnoticed due to the fact that they don't play their home games in New York or Boston.

 

Jayson Stark is the only credible baseball person at ESPN to pick the Rockies to win the Series, citing that Colorado was the best hitting and fielding team during the 2nd half of the season, and among the best pitching teams in the league as well.

 

I see this series as a coin flip, with maybe a slight edge to the Red Sox due to Beckett's dominance (as long as he continues pitching well), and the fact that MLB scheduled the postseason in a way that kept the Rockies from playing a game for what amounts to 2 all star breaks put together. Whoever wins this series is going to need at least 6 games to do so, IMO. It just sickens me that there currently isn't a much better mainstream option to turn to for baseball coverage than a network that tries too hard to entertain its audience rather than to inform them and provide balanced coverage of topics. Especially when the dollars ESPN receives from the NFL forces them to spend 90% of their time drooling over the Patriots and Colts during the middle of their regular season instead of covering the World Series properly.

 

Edit: Spelling in title. - Toby

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I see this series as a coin flip

 

Me too - but then, I see every series as (basically) a coin flip. The best team in history, with home field advantage, against the worst team in history ever to advance to the post-season, probably has something like 65-35 odds in their favor.

 

It just sickens me that there currently isn't a much better mainstream option to turn to for baseball coverage than a network that tries too hard to entertain its audience rather than to inform them and provide balanced coverage of topics.

 

They would argue they're giving the "mainstream" what it wants. It's hard to argue with their success, but if they're right, it's also quite hard to view the casual sports fan as anything other than a complete imbecile.

[uecker9]

Don't forget the big NY logo up there every 5 minutes and their search for a new manager. And 2 new guys to clean toilets on the second level, first base side.

 

How much will all the time off hurt Colorado?

[homer]

First off, let me preface by saying I am rooting for the Rockies.

 

But I can't begrudge someone or a bunch of people for picking the Red Sox. They are a really good team and as you said, they probably have an edge.

 

And MLB didn't screw with the schedule to hose the Rockies. The Rockies swept everyone - they played less games than the Red Sox. Had the Red Sox had an eight day layoff I'm sure the conspiracy would be "MLB wanted the older team to have more rest".

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I see every series as (basically) a coin flip. The best team in history, with home field advantage, against the worst team in history ever to advance to the post-season, probably has something like 65-35 odds in their favor.

 

On the other hand, Tom Tippett (Diamond Mind Baseball) says I'm full of it. He's got this series 72-28 in favor of Boston.

[crewcrazy]

It'll be interesting to see how the series played out. Colorado won the regular season series that the two teams played against each other, and I think Colorado's altitude may affect some of the Boston players who aren't used to it -- even though they don't run a whole lot, could you imagine how much air David Ortiz could be gasping for while he's forced to actually play a position? How about seeing Manny and J.D. Drew trying to man the corners of that spacious outfield? How effective will Beckett be if he has to pitch in Colorado (the Red Sox have already left Wakefield off their WS roster since his knuckleball would be useless in high altitude)?

 

I don't think this series is as open-and-shut as everyone seems to think it is. If Colorado can get out of Boston with the series tied 1-1, they'll be in great shape to win the whole thing, IMO.

[RightFieldCoder]

Just thought I should mention I think Boston will easily win the Series, in 5 games.

 

Of course, anything could happen in what amounts to a week of baseball.

So I guess Dad of Andrew had an East Coast bias we never knew about.

I think Boston has the better talent. But in a 7 game series anyone can win. How many people thought the Cardinals were going to win last year?

[JohnBriggs12]

In fairness at least one ESPN analyst (Jason Stark) picked the Rockies in 6. He also basically called Mike Greenberg an idiot for picking the Red Sox to sweep in part because Red Sox will be at distinct disadvantage in NL park without the DH.

 

As always anything can happen, but to suggest (as I've heard plenty) that the Rockies are going from the JV league to the Varsity league is ludicrous. I don't have to list them, but we all know which league has the abundance of young superstar type talent, and it's not the AL.

 

My pick: Rockies in 7.

 

Talent excluding pitching is no worse than even in my book and favors Rockies without DH:

 

Holliday = Ramirez

Taveras > Crisp

Hawpe > Drew

Atkins = Lowell

Tulowitzki > Lugo

Matsui < Pedroia

Helton > Youkalis

Torrealba < Varitek

Spilborghs/Smith < Ortiz

[patrickgpe]

the sox have a far superior pitching staff. I agree offensively they are a wash. I just wouldn't be so confident against a team that is on one of the better stretches of all time.

[Thurston Fluff]

crazycrew made some very astute points. Boston may not be built very well for the Rockies field. Slow outfielders with questionable defensive skills to begin with are not good in that park. Manny's defense like chickens flying. It looks like they should be able to, they have all the required parts for said operation, but the end result is can't really be called flight.

[dadofandrew]

I just want to thank folks for mentioning me in the same breath as an "expert". My brother knows 10x more baseball than myself, but I do keep up on the Crew and their close prospects about as well as anyone.

 

As for defense, Crisp or Elsbury and Drew are very solid defenders, so 2/3rd's of the OF is very good. Considering how many weak LF's there are, I can't believe Manny is much worse than average out there.

[Katuluu]

Drew has all sorts of knee problems. He's no where near the defender he once was in the outfield. I'd say he's probably average at best.

[dadofandrew]

Kat may be right, as Drew's ZR was lower this year. However, for 7 games, I have to believe he'll be loading up on over-the-counter, legal painkillers. There's not much half-speed in the Series, unless he is simply at 75%, which I have not noticed.

[homer]

"Talent excluding pitching is no worse than even in my book and favors Rockies without DH: "

 

I'd be curious what the Red Sox home/away splits were. The Rockies were pretty average on the road I believe.

[brwrsfan]

Would Boston ever consider going with an outfield of Manny, Crisp and Elsbury? At least for some games in Colorado? JD Drew is hobbled, and aside from the last couple of games hasn't really been all that productive at the plate.

 

With Boston's offense being what it is, could they afford to put both Crisp and Elsbury in the lineup? They have a ton of speed and could certainly cover much of the spacious Coors Field outfield. Assuming Ortiz plays at 1b, they have butchers at 1b and LF and could use the upgrade. However, this means having two regulars out of the lineup though (2 of Ortiz/Drew/Youkalis/Lowell).

[uecker9]

Too bad the NL didn't win the All-Star game, that extra game in Colorado could have helped. But there would be no Monday night football/ game 5 in Denver either.

[Thurston Fluff]

Crisp is a good outfielder with decent speed which IMO in Colorado is more important than arm strength. Elsbury I don't know enough about but I'd be surprised if they went with him much in an NL park when they don't have the DH for Ortiz. Drew has a good arm but not the fastest guy out there. That's why I think he may not be as good in Coors vs parks with smaller outfields. Not that he's a bad defender but that his strengths don't mathc the field very well. Maybe I'm just overthinking this in an effort to find more reasons for the Rockies to win. We'll see if they get to all the balls the Rockies do.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Red Sox starting pitching while good is vastly overrated. Beckett is a true ace and he has an exceptionally good playoff record, but he gave up nearly a hit an inning (189 in 200 2/3) this year so he's not quite Sandy Koufax or Bob Gibson in their primes.

 

Schilling is still solid and a big game pitcher too, but nowhere near the pitcher he was in Arizona or his first year in Boston. Opponents batted .275 against him and slugged .445.

 

Matsuzaka walks quite a few which isn't a real good idea in Coors. Lester is 11-2 lifetime but with a pedestrian 4.68 ERA. Wakefield is out.

[rluzinski]

Boston is clearly the better team and has home field advantage but Colorado would still win around one out of every 3, 7 game series. It's just how baseball works. It's no coin flip but it's pretty much always going to be closer to a coin flip than a forgone conclusion.

[TooLiveBrew]

Oritz won't be playing any 1B. Youkilis will remain there, and Papi will likely watch from the pine as a super-luxury of a PH. I'm very interested to see how Bos. performs on the road offensively, sans Ortiz, with all the pressure of the WS.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah it is a little disgusting all the gushing over Boston. They are very good, and probably have better pitching. But you would think some "so called expert" would pick Colorado. Lay off or not, they have won 21 of 22. I was rooting for the Rockies when the post season started and now I want them to win even more to stick it to all the "experts".

[mothershipconnection]

On the other hand, Tom Tippett (Diamond Mind Baseball) says I'm full of it. He's got this series 72-28 in favor of Boston.

 

Wow, that just can't be accurate. How could one playoff team have a .720 Winning % over another except in the rare case of a really weak division and a truly dominant team. The Rockies aren't a pushover - they won 90 games in a competitive division.

[brewcrewreview]

The Red Sox went into the Series in Vegas as a -240 favorite (which I took). I don't see why you can blame people for picking them when they are such a heavy favorite.

[rluzinski]

Lay off or not, they have won 21 of 22.

 

Goes to show you what momentum is worth.

[dadofandrew]

Momentum is as good as that day's starting pitcher, or something like that, Earl Weaver correctly said.