Vote for Braun for ROY

[Fatter than Joey]

I know a lot of brewerfan wants Braun in the OF, but that really wrecks his value. People wanted Weeks in CF and that would wreck is value also.

 

Winning games is more important, and Braun's defense at 3b wrecked his value. If you have to get replaced by Counsell -- that's not helping your value.

 

I know we haven't been to the playoffs in awhile and some people get jumpy, but having a 3B who could possibly hit 40+ HRs/year isn't that common in baseball.

 

A sub .900 fielding pct is quite rare as well.

 

he can play 3B. Can he do it consistently?

 

A lot of stats and scouts disagree with you.

 

I think we should let him try and quit this Braun stinks at defense talk

 

Why? -- If we are going to paint him as a 40HR guy, we should not ignore his liabilities.

 

where would have been w/o Braun at all this year?

 

Our record was better w/o Braun last year.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think like Weeks, we see if he improves going into spring this year and go from there. Weeks improved his D at 2B maybe Braun can improve his. If not move him to the OF that is fine with me.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think like Weeks, we see if he improves going into spring this year and go from there. Weeks improved his D at 2B maybe Braun can improve his.

 

2 Things --

 

1.) Weeks is still a subpar 2b

 

2.) Weeks had the benefit of playing when the team didn't have a playoff opportunity

[sbrylski]

I know a lot of brewerfan wants Braun in the OF, but that really wrecks his value.

 

NL LF - .278 / .358 / .478 / .836

NL 3B - .280 / .348 / .456 / .804

NL RF - .275 / .344 / .442 / .786

NL CF - .273 / .336 / .426 / .762

 

Sticking him in RF actually increases his offensive value.

 

But if we are talking about shuffling around only players already on the roster, any net gain relative to position will cancel itself out.

 

Braun isn't moving off 3B next season. If he shows no progress, I'd like to think next offseason is when this is seriously considered by management.

[DuWayne Steurer]

A few things..........

 

A few posts in the thread have wording like "If he played 1B" or "If Ned didn't play him out of position"........"this discussion wouldn't even be happening".

 

Well, he didn't play 1st, he DID play where the manager put him, and he played pretty much awful in the field. Not that anyone refutes that.....

 

I don't think at all that a voter is going to say "Well, he was pretty bad defensively, but he'll come around" or "He probably wouldn't have been so bad defensively if he just played in the OF where he belongs".

 

They're going to vote on what they know, and one of the things they know is regardless of what he does next year, he was an awful, awful fielding 3B this year.

 

Is that enough to say he doesn't deserve it over Tulo? I honestly couldn't answer that, but I just don't think it's accurate to say he deserves to win because he was played out of position (not that anyone said that in that specific a manner)

[pitchleague]

maybe if Braun loses the ROY, he'll become fired up about improving and will work extra super hard during the off-season and spring training to get better. Maybe he'll have that motivation. And maybe not. I don't how much of a "motivational" player he is.

[Fatter than Joey]

maybe if Braun loses the ROY, he'll become fired up about improving and will work extra super hard during the off-season and spring training to get better

 

Well -- I hope he gets better -- I hope it sends a message to DM, that he can't just handwave our team through defensive issues, and expect guys like Suppan and Cappy to win 18 games.

[jhpc12]

The only way that Braun is moved to right field is if Corey is moved to center. If not I can't see moving him out of right field.

 

Again I'm hearing let's move Corey AGAIN he won't mind. He was one of the top fielding right fielders in the game with a strong acurate arm last year.

 

I don't get the Milwaukee feed, but every time he was on TV (Reds, Braves, Cubs, or ESPN) outside of Fielder all they seemed to want to talk about was Corey.

 

At some point in time the postion changes have to stop and let him settle in at one postion. And if they do I believe Corey will put up extremely good numbers offensively, somewhere in the range of 30+ homeruns, 10+ triples, 30-40 doubles, 30+ steals, 90-110 RBI's and hit near .300. He won't be flashy while doing this, but at seasons end we will all look up and say he flew under the radar again.

 

Bottom line he just produces. Even with all the screwing with his head. Just imagine leaving him alone for one full season. if he stays healthy his potential is endless.

[endaround]

See, I don't think Braun isn't trying his hardest. And I don't think he isn't athletic. He just isn't a good 3B. Micheal Jordon was likely the greatest athlete of my lifetime and he got stuck in the outfield.

[endaround]

The only way that Braun is moved to right field is if Corey is moved to center. If not I can't see moving him out of right field.

Except Hart was already playing CF last season. He had 34 games there when Hall was on the bench. And as a CFer Hart's value skyrockets, not sure he'd be too upset about an extra $5 million per in 4 years time.

 

[Fatter than Joey]

He just isn't a good 3B.

 

And this is confirmed by the same scouts that like his speed, and arm strength, but don't think he can play 3b at a sufficient level

[homer]

"Micheal Jordon was likely the greatest athlete of my lifetime and he got stuck in the outfield. "

 

Kind of an apples to oranges comparison. Michael Jordan is 6'6" - how many 3B are over 6'3"? I can think of Ripken and Glaus (maybe ARod?) I read someplace that this is why Hart was bad at 3B - he was too tall to bend over quickly to get grounders.

 

It's because Jordan was a great athlete they put him in left instead of first (and he was something like 30 years old at the time - easier to learn the OF than infield if you haven't played in 15 years).

[BrewCrewForever]

I guess whatever they do they do, as long as Braun's bat is in the lineup I could care less what position he plays.

[Fatter than Joey]

I guess whatever they do they do, as long as Braun's bat is in the lineup I could care less what position he plays.

 

I agree to a point -- I want Braun in the lineup -- If he is playing 3rd, he won't be in the lineup after the 7th inning when Yost runs Counsell out there, and

given our pitching's ability to give up leads, I don't like Braun on the pine.

[Tbadder]

You know, as much as I like Braun better than Tulo, I gota say he makes JJ look pathetic. He bigger, stronger, faster, gets to more balls, makes the tough play look easy. And most importantly he just looks more durable.

[sheetswannabe]

Our record was better w/o Braun last year.

You can say that all you want, but the truth is, if Braun wouldnt have been up theres no way we would have been close to the playoffs. Imagine a full year of Counsell at 3rd. Look at his numbers then look at Brauns.

[JJHardy7]

I totally agree with sheetswannabe. Braun will be given the chance this year and I think as fans we should just support the idea and believe he can improve. It's not like he's been playing 3B since high school. I think Braun playing 3B INCREASES his value to the team because he's much better offensively than anything we currently have in the organization at 3B -- if Hall gets on track it's not that much of a gap. He wasn't very good in the field, but he has the tools. A lot of his errors were throwing errors, but if you have watched the World Series at all or playoffs Todd Helton is a stud at 1B. Prince isn't going to grow and be able to stretch out as far as Helton can. I'm guessing 5 - 7 of Braun's throws Helton would have been able to get to.

 

LaPorta is a future OF or 1B once/if Fielder is gone. The only way Braun gets moved is if they move Hall back to 3B and I don't think a year in which Braun wasn't supposed to be on the big league team anywhere near the amount of time he was -- due to his defense -- is a completely clear picture.

 

I know a lot of people have said the 24-10 start gave us too much hope or wasn't real. If that's the case, then the win/loss discussion over whether Braun won us more games is thrown out the window since the 24-10 start skews that stat.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think as fans we should just support the idea and believe he can improve.

 

Well -- I certainly will be rooting for Braun -- But "believe" is something that makes me ignore my personal observations, stats, and scouting.

 

I think Braun playing 3B INCREASES his value to the team because he's much better offensively than anything we currently have in the organization at 3B

 

The same could be said about LF (or whatever corner spot Hart isn't in)

 

Prince isn't going to grow and be able to stretch out as far as Helton can. I'm guessing 5 - 7 of Braun's throws Helton would have been able to get to.

 

I agree 100% -- and this is why it is important for the Brewers to be more realistic about Braun playing third. Both Weeks and Braun struggle with their throws, Prince struggles catching the ball. Prince is cemented at 1b. I think we could live with Accurate arms/Prince or Inaccurate arms/Helton-type 1b -- but having both, seems like a bad idea to me.

 

 

If that's the case, then the win/loss discussion over whether Braun won us more games is thrown out the window since the 24-10 start skews that stat.

 

Well the bottom line is that the team was successful w/o Braun.

 

I think all of us here want to see Braun in the lineup, and have no question that his impact is overall positive -- however, there is no question that his bad defense negates a lot of his offensive production -- the debate is more about the magnitude. I don't want to see Counsell replacing Braun ever in our lineup -- and if Braun is playing third -- I can guarantee that will happen.

 

I have no idea how many games Braun lost us in 2007 -- that would be more of a function of the distribution of his bad plays and run production. All I know is that for about 120 games we were a sub .500 team. Our defense needs to improve.

[davemakovec]

I don't like the idea of moving Corey Hart any more than they have already. Has anybody else noticed that all he's done is quietly put up star numbers while everybody is touting the can't-miss superstar prospects on the club? This is what he was doing year after year in the minors, too. I remember somebody saying about him that while everybody was drooling over Prince and Rickie, Corey Hart was out there winning team MVP awards.

 

I'm a believer in Corey Hart, and I don't think he should be moved around the outfield to make space for Braun.

[Fatter than Joey]

I'm a believer in Corey Hart, and I don't think he should be moved around the outfield to make space for Braun.

 

We all love Hart --

 

Braun could be moved to LF and Hart could stay in RF -- that is one option.

 

However, moving Hart to CF, would make him pretty elite at that position. I don't think he would mind being a top-flight CFer (as opposed to LF/RF) when contract talks came up.

[JJHardy7]

I don't think Prince is going anywhere else in the field, but I guess my question is how good of a defense do we need to be? Do we need to be in the top 10? Is it possible to have Fielder at 1B to do this? I have a feeling that we'd need some pretty slick fielders to offset Prince's physical limitations. Is this realistic?

[Fatter than Joey]

I don't think Prince is going anywhere else in the field,

 

Agreed -- the only other position he could play is DH.

 

I guess my question is how good of a defense do we need to be? Do we need to be in the top 10?

 

Well -- I suppose that depends a lot on our pitching -- If we have guys that get lower K/9 we probably need better fielding.

We got a 50 HR season from Prince, and Braun's amazing 2007 and still didn't win above .500 -- something needs tweaking.

 

Is it possible to have Fielder at 1B to do this?

 

I think so -- In my perfect world Weeks and Braun go to the Corners, Hart to CF, Hall to 2b/3b and you find a FA like Mike Lowell to man 3b. (or someone similar for 2b).

 

I have a feeling that we'd need some pretty slick fielders to offset Prince's physical limitations. Is this realistic?

 

I don't think we need "slick" -- I think we need "average". Braun could improve in 2008 and still be the worst 3b in the NL, much like Weeks, has improved, and while he is better, he still is among the leagues worst 2bs.

 

I think we can live with Prince at 1b and better 2b/3b OR Weeks/Braun with a better 1b -- I think Prince/Weeks/Braun is historically bad.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I got in a discussion with a few posters several weeks ago about whether Braun's defense really could be as bad as THT's fielding stats indicate (i.e. more than 30 runs below avg, pro-rated -40 runs over a full season). My position was that it seemed unlikely. Saw this today from MGL in a summary of UZR:

 

UZR is a complex defensive rating based on play-by-play data, expressed as runs saved or cost as compared to an average player at each defensive position. Depending on the position (for example, since the shortstop gets quite a few more chances than the first baseman, the range of values for SS is larger than for 1B), an average fielder is around -5 to +5 runs per season, a good or poor one +-5 to +-10 , a very good or very poor one, +-10 to +-15, and a great or terrible fielder, between +15 and +20 or between -15 and -20, respectively.

 

These are true talent levels, or what you would see in many seasons combined. In any one season, because of the fluctuations associated with limited sample sizes, you will sometimes see values of plus or minus 20 or 30 something. That does not usually represent a fielder's true talent level or what you could expect in multiple seasons or in the future.

 

This is more or less the basis of what I was trying to argue. Braun was awful last year, and that will (and ought to) impact the ROY voting (and, coupled with Braun's shorter season, probably should make the award Tulowitzki's even though he was a vastly inferior hitter). But I think that we could reasonably expect better performance next season simply as a consequence of regression to the mean (irrespective of any material improvement in Braun's skill or "true talent level"). If he puts up another "minus 20 or 30 something", then he really is historically dreadful and absolutely must be moved off of 3B. As I've stated previously, I'd be in favor of that now, anyway, because I don't think Braun will ever get to average defensively in the infield, but he could be a plus defender as a corner outfielder. The above MGL quote, however, fosters some hope in the event management holds course (as they've given indication is their intent).

 

Check out the rest of the article as well, it's an attempt to measure the link between speed and defensive ability:

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/speed-and-defense/

 

The downer in the article is that it substantially weakens the argument that Braun's athleticism is a reason to believe he'll be alright defensively at 3B. It's one of the only positions for which MGL detects no correlation between speed and defense.

[Ennder]

Another thing I hadn't thought about before is that I bet Tulo has better defensive metrics at home than on the road. Part of what they did to Coors to try to make it less hitter friendly is growing the infield grass extra long. It supposedly has the slowest infield in baseball which is going to give their fielders a much better chance to make more plays.

[beckyjean69]

Yeah, thats probably why his defense was so good.. Anything that would diminish Tulo's ability and prowess on defense, while also adding to Braun's chances of winning the ROY has to be true.