Vote for Braun for ROY

[splitterpfj]

MLB.com

 

vote here

[EinhornIsFinkle]

I don't think he was.

[Oldcity]

Hmm. Have you seen Tulo's road splits? If not, get back to us.

[thablingster]

Hmm. Have you seen Tulo's road splits? If not, get back to us.

Those road splits make my brain hurt. It is Menchlike. Actually, worse than Menchlike. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif

I was impressed with how fairly even Braun is home and away.

 

[zurch1818]

Don't forget to vote for Cordero for reliever of the year

[brettac1]

Hmm. Have you seen Tulo's road splits? If not, get back to us.

 

Have you seen Braun attempt to field and throw a baseball?

[mikerollins]

Don't forget to vote for Ned for Manager of the Year too....

[splitterpfj]

Whoever you're for, or against, please explain yourself. Personally, I don't see how anyone could vote against Braun, I know all about the defensive issues, but the offensive numbers he put up are absolutely unbelievable for a rookie, they would be even if he'd used a full season to get there.

 

I know there are other great rookies to consider, but look again at what Braun did with the bat, it may be 20 years before you see a rookie do that again.

[mothershipconnection]

I agree Splitter. Yep, his defense was bad, but his offense was truly special. You simply do not have a rookie like that come around every year, and I think some are discounting him as just being "really good" when he was actually on the edge of uncharted territory for a rookie. Of course, Tulo is a very well-rounded player. Still, adjust his offense for park factors and he's simply "a darn good player who would win ROY in a year when a freak of nature wasn't his competition", which means he wouldn't have beaten Ramirez last year, who's only part human.

 

If Braun were a 1B, he'd look good and we wouldn't be having this debate. Likewise, if he was a DH in the AL, he'd still win the award without hesitation. It's the inverse of the frustration I feel when people glorify SS's (Jeter) over A-Rod. Dude could obviously do it with ease, but that's not where his team has him playing. If Braun were drafted by a team with a stud 3B, he's be at a position where he looks better.

[brettac1]

If Braun were a 1B, he'd look good and we wouldn't be having this debate. Likewise, if he was a DH in the AL, he'd still win the award without hesitation.

 

Yeah, but he wasn't. His inept defense is hard to overstate. And it takes a lot away from his offensive value (while Tulowitzki's defense adds immensely to his solid offense). Sure, I hope he wins it because he's a Brewer, but I'm not totally sure he deserves it. I'm not knocking how phenomenal his offense was, but the fact of the matter is that he is an equally brutal defender who cost his team games due to that.

[Ennder]

Tulo is David Eckstein with a better arm playing outside of Coor's field. No thanks on ROY for me.

[Oldcity]

Here's how I see it:

 

Special, elite offense+horrible defense>Special, elite defense+pretty good offense.

[twobrewers]

Braun would certainly be the worst [third baseman], if he qualified. Even using zero UZR to make up the games he "missed" he is still probably the worst. That is a shame since he is such a good hitter, and his poor defense takes most (75% or so) of his hitting value away.

I pulled this from the Trade Rumor/Proposal forum - and specifically from a Mitchel Lichtman article.

 

If you believe those rating as to how bad Braun's defense was - that would reduce his bat to around a .750 OPS. So when you consider that, even with Tulo's poor splits you can certainly make a case for Troy.

 

Braun's bat was amazing. He defense was equally amazing. They pretty much cancel each other out. Yes as a DH he would win the award - but as a DH he wouldn't have had a chance to hurt our team. As a 3B he hurt our team many many times.

[Ennder]

Braun would certainly be the worst [third baseman], if he qualified. Even using zero UZR to make up the games he "missed" he is still probably the worst. That is a shame since he is such a good hitter, and his poor defense takes most (75% or so) of his hitting value away.

I pulled this from the Trade Rumor/Proposal forum - and specifically from a Mitchel Lichtman article.

 

If you believe those rating as to how bad Braun's defense was - that would reduce his bat to around a .750 OPS. So when you consider that, even with Tulo's poor splits you can certainly make a case for Troy.

 

Braun's bat was amazing. He defense was equally amazing. They pretty much cancel each other out. Yes as a DH he would win the award - but as a DH he wouldn't have had a chance to hurt our team. As a 3B he hurt our team many many times.

Even if the defense cancels out the offense I trust offensive metrics a lot more than defensive. Many times the leader in defensive metrics one year are below average the next. I think they are just too unreliable to base awards on. If Tulo had normal home/road splits i could see it but when he struggles to break .700 OPS on the road I'm not giving him ROY.

[DHonks]

Tools-wise, I really like Braun at 3b. He's made some nice diving plays. He's got some of the best range at 3b that I've ever seen. His arm is very strong. He just needs to work on having all the tools come together, and so I'm not concerned at this point. Remember when Billy Hall couldn't make a throw? Or Rickie Weeks?

[sheetswannabe]

DHonks, I agree. No matter if these guys pull out their "Ranger Factor". Thats so dumb, you cant rate defense on stats, you have to WATCH what they do.

[splitterpfj]

Suppose a rookie 3B came up and had an OPS of .750, (that's Jose Bautista, for instance), if that player had defended on a level that was not just rookie good, not just regular good, but good on a historic level....would the voters consider him the equal of a player with an OPS of 1.004 (Braun's)?

 

Nobody would vote for such a player as ROY, no way, no how, unless it was a brutally weak year for rookies. I think that article that claimed Braun's D lowered his offensive value to the .750 range is ridiculous. Even if you drop Braun's OBP by 50 pts, and his slugging by 100 pts - both enormous concessions - this would still leave Braun with an OPS of .854, 100 pts higher than Mr Lichtman believes he was "worth." Someone actually thinks Braun had the value of a guy with a .300 OBP and a .450 SLG? Come on now, reporter guy, you're embarrassing yourself.

 

Despite countless warnings to the contrary, the Brewers have miscast Braun as a 3B, when clearly he is not. I don't think a player who completely destroyed the best pitching in the world, on a level any veteran MLB player would cash in for crazy free agent money, should be overly penalized for being played out of position by his organization.

 

Take defense into account? Absolutely. Use it to the point that it bridges the huge gap between Braun's numbers and Tulowitzki's numbers? Absolutely not.

[TerraceReserved]

Nobody would vote for such a player as ROY, no way, no how, unless it was a brutally weak year for rookies. I think that article that claimed Braun's D lowered his offensive value to the .750 range is ridiculous. Even if you drop Braun's OBP by 50 pts, and his slugging by 100 pts - both enormous concessions - this would still leave Braun with an OPS of .854, 100 pts higher than Mr Lichtman believes he was "worth." Someone actually thinks Braun had the value of a guy with a .300 OBP and a .450 SLG? Come on now, reporter guy, you're embarrassing yourself.

 

 

Exactly what I was thinking. There is no way on earth that his defense made his offense only worth a .750 OPS. There's just no way. With defensive metrics being so inconsistent, its tough and probably misleading to say how much overall value each player contributed, which makes it easier to give the award to Braun.

[brettac1]

Come on now, reporter guy, you're embarrassing yourself.

 

He's not a reporter. He's the guy that created the UZR defensive metric, and he worked for the Cardinals.

 

DHonks, I agree. No matter if these guys pull out their "Ranger Factor". Thats so dumb, you cant rate defense on stats, you have to WATCH what they do.

 

So, you weren't watching when he made 25 errors and countless other misplays that could have been ruled errors if not for the generosity of Tim O'Driscoll?

 

That's cool, though, I'll go back to being so dumb.

[splitterpfj]

He's not a reporter. He's the guy that created the UZR defensive metric, and he worked for the Cardinals.

 

That's all good, but it doesn't change the way I feel about his assessment, there's no soft way to say how far off I think he is on this. Bad defense certainly matters, and I think Braun should be moved to the OF tomorrow morning, but there's no way I'll believe his glove eliminated that much of his offensive contribution.

[Fatter than Joey]

That's all good, but it doesn't change the way I feel about his assessment, there's no soft way to say how far off I think he is on this.

 

That's fine, but at least his methodology isn't arbitrarily docking Braun 150 OPS points.

 

As far as Tulo, you can't just assume that the entire OPS difference in home to away, is due to Coors. -- If you figure in his park factor for his home ABs, he is still overall an average hitting SS.

 

Despite countless warnings to the contrary, the Brewers have miscast Braun as a 3B, when clearly he is not. I don't think a player who completely destroyed the best pitching in the world, on a level any veteran MLB player would cash in for crazy free agent money, should be overly penalized for being played out of position by his organization.

 

This, on the other hand, I can get on board -- The Yostings continue through the off-season! If I were to vote for Braun -- it would probably be due to him forced to play a position he isn't able to.

 

Likewise, if he was a DH in the AL, he'd still win the award without hesitation.

 

Maybe -- The AL oftentimes has writers that will not vote for DHs as they do not play the field.

 

With defensive metrics being so inconsistent, its tough and probably misleading to say how much overall value each player contributed, which makes it easier to give the award to Braun.

 

I can get onboard with calling out defensive metrics -- however, the good news is, is that Braun's D was so bad -- we don't need metrics to realize it.

 

Remember when Billy Hall couldn't make a throw? Or Rickie Weeks?

 

In the case of Weeks, I remember it well, largely because he still couldn't make throws in 2007.

 

If Tulo had normal home/road splits i could see it but when he struggles to break .700 OPS on the road I'm not giving him ROY.

 

In the same vein I don't think it's right to give the award to the worst defender in the league either, (probably all of baseball save Manny Ramirez)

 

Don't forget to vote for Ned for Manager of the Year too....

 

Post of the Year!

[pitchleague]

I'll never forget what my cousin told me when we were sitting in the press box during a D-Back game once (he works in Media Relations and I was a guest of his for a game). He sits right next to the PA guy and the official scorer and STATS Inc. guy. We were discussing how they do their jobs and the STATS Inc. guy commented on how he has to watch so much more intensely because he has to do the defensive stats, like zone rating, etc.

 

When he was done, my cousin chimed in with, "So, in other words, there are defensive metrics that are at the mercy of the opinion of the STATS Inc. guy in every ballpark." The STATS Inc. guy replied, "yeah, it's stupid, but it's pretty much right on the nose." And then he discussed his "training" for the job and how when he was judged by his boss, his results rarely matched the results of other STATS Inc. employees in Zone Rating and other defensive metrics. Pretty much summarized that everybody interprets each player's "zone" a little bit differently and it skews the stats ever so slightly.

 

I have taken Zone Rating with a grain of salt every time since. It's a metric and it's fairly reliable. But it is it 100% accurate? It varies.

 

On topic, I'd vote for Braun with Tulo a close second. Braun's footwork at third base just needs to improve and then I think he can be average to above-average. Remember A-Rod his first year at third? It wasn't great. Granted, he wasn't atrocious by any means, either. I think Braun can and will get better in the next few seasons.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

When MGL says that Braun's defense takes away 75% of his offensive value, he doesn't mean 1000 OPS times .75 equals 750 OPS.

Value is generally measured in runs above average or runs above replacement. Let's say MGL is talking about runs above average (the numbers would change if he's talking about runs above replacement but the calculation would be the same). Baseball Prospectus has Braun at 36 BRAA (batting runs above average). MGL would use linear weights, which is a different system than BP uses, but all the offensive measures come out to within a few runs of each other.

The 75% figure, then, tells us that MGL's UZR ratings have Braun at -27 fielding runs (approx). His contribution was equivalent to an average fielding 3B who was +9 batting runs. That takes quite a bit more OPS than 750. Kevin Kouzmanoff was +9 batting runs in 2007, posting a 786 OPS in the most pitcher-friendly park in the majors. Coincidentally, Tulowitzki's 838 OPS produced exactly +9 batting runs of value (over a lot more plate appearances, but at a position with a lower offensive baseline) in the most hitter-friendly park in the majors. In a neutral environment like Miller Park, I'd wager a 3B wouldn't earn +9 batting runs in Braun's 3/4 season without OPSing at least 810, maybe 820.

Moral of the story -- even if we do decide to completely trust advance fielding metrics that have Braun at somewhere between -20 and -30 runs worse than an average 3B in the field, he was still a significant net positive for the team. Don't ever overlook the value of league average production at a position, particularly when you're paying the league minimum in salary. On the other hand, unless the advanced fielding metrics are missing on Braun or on Tulowitzki (most of them have Tulowitzki about as far above average as they have Braun below it), Braun probably doesn't deserve the NL ROY.

[BrewCrewForever]

Hmm. Have you seen Tulo's road splits? If not, get back to us.

 

Have you seen Braun attempt to field and throw a baseball?

Braun is my favorite player, but even I have to agree with Brett on that quote. Tulo's road splits are as bad as Braun's D. I do hope and think Braun should win, but Tulo was great as well.

[JJHardy7]

Defense does matter...don't get me wrong, but Braun had one of the best rookie offensive histories in baseball history. I think that does him some justice. And I hope we all remember that Braun did not play 3B in college. Tulowitzki did play SS in college. I know it's easy to read all the defensive stats and his errors (I agree they were too much), but Braun in my mind is clearly the ROY. I really don't care if he gets it, but I hope people look at Tulowitzki's stats. I know a lot of brewerfan wants Braun in the OF, but that really wrecks his value. People wanted Weeks in CF and that would wreck is value also. I really wish people would support giving Braun at least one more year at 3B. I know we haven't been to the playoffs in awhile and some people get jumpy, but having a 3B who could possibly hit 40+ HRs/year isn't that common in baseball. The plan all along was not to have Braun up as early as he was. I think we should try to sit back for a second and think about this. Braun made some amazing plays in the field and made some really bad errors on routine plays...he can play 3B. Can he do it consistently? I think we should let him try and quit this Braun stinks at defense talk. I for one had a lot of fun watching him bat this year and I hated his errors, but these stats aside....where would have been w/o Braun at all this year?