Nate Silver's solution to Braun's defense (trade/FA related

[fondybrewfan]

About 2/3 down the article Nate offers his solution via free agency, trade, or staying in house regarding getting Ryan Braun out of third base

October 17, 2007, 11:05 PM ET
Ryan Braun's Defense

by Nate Silver

I've made several snide remarks about Ryan Braun's third base defense in recent weeks, most recently in my review of the 50 most valuable players in baseball. I don't have anything against Ryan Braun; it would be hard for someone with the last name Silver to root against the Hebrew Hammer. Nor is this based on any sort of personal observation. I'd probably have to see a player at least 10 times in person or 25-30 times on television before I'd be comfortable contributing any kind of scouting take on his defense, and the only teams I see play that often during the season are the two local clubs, and maybe the two that advance to the World Series. But there's no doubt about it: Ryan Braun's defense is bad.

These were the trailers in Clay Davenport's Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) last season:

 -22 Kouzmanoff, 3B, SD -20 Braun, 3B, MIL -19 Durham, 2B, SFG -18 Burrell, LF, PHI -18 Harris, INF, <span class="statdef">[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=TB]TB[/url] -17 Willingham, LF, FLA -17 Dunn, LF, CIN -17 Atkins, 3B, COL -16 Fielder, <span class="statdef">[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=1B]1B[/url], MIL -16 Hall, CF, MIL -16 Lugo, SS, BOS -15 Eckstein, SS, STL -15 Sanchez, 2B, PIT </span></span> 

Braun doesn't actually have the lowest score on this list - he has the second lowest behind Kevin Kouzmanoff. But FRAA is a counting stat rather than a rate stat, and Braun played only about two-thirds of the season, whereas most everybody else had the full year to accumulate their low scores. On a rate basis, Braun was a little worse than Kouzmanoff, and Braun and Kouzmanoff were quite a bit worse than any other regular or quasi-regular in the game. By the way, notice how many of these players are notoriously old, slow, fat, or were playing out of position; these are exactly the people you'd expect to see on a list like this one.

We can also look at a second-generation, play-by-play based metric like the Hardball Times' Revised Zone Rating. According to that statistic, there were five regular defensive players who made at least 10% fewer plays than an average player at their position. Ryan Braun is one of them; in fact he rates at the second-worst defender in baseball relative to his position, ahead of only Manny Ramirez.

 -19.1% Ramirez, LF, BOS -16.4% Braun, 3B, MIL -12.0% Encarnacion, 3B, CIN -13.4% Young, <span class="statdef">[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=1B]1B[/url], WAS -10.7% Sexson, <span class="statdef">[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=1B]1B[/url], SEA -9.5% Fielder, <span class="statdef">[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?search=1B]1B[/url], MIL -9.3% Bautista, 3B, PIT -9.2% Atkins, 3B, COL</span></span></span> 

And so we have agreement from two systems, with radically different approaches, that Braun was one of the very worst defensive players in baseball in 2007.

I don't have Braun's rating in my favorite third-gen metric, UZR, but here's what Mitchel Lichtman had to say about him:

Braun would certainly be the worst [third baseman], if he qualified. Even using zero UZR to make up the games he "missed" he is still probably the worst. That is a shame since he is such a good hitter, and his poor defense takes most (75% or so) of his hitting value away.

Making a few inferences from Mitchel's statements, this would imply that Braun's UZR falls somewhere between Miguel Cabrera's -28, and 75% of his 2007 VORP, which works out to -43. So here again, Braun ranks as one of the worst four or five defensive players in baseball, challenged only by Pat Burrell's -34, Manny Ramirez' -33, and Raul Ibanez' -30. By consensus view, Braun was probably the very worst defensive player in baseball in 2007; the only real competitors for the title might be Ramirez, and perhaps Burrell.

But the question is not so much whether Braun was bad in 2007 - he was awful - but how he's likely to play going forward. Before the season, Braun was regarded anywhere from a somewhat below-average defender at third base to a problematically bad one. Here's what Kevin Goldstein wrote about him last December.

Despite the tools, Braun is still inadequate at the hot corner. His footwork is bad, and while he has plus arm strength, his throws lack accuracy. His bat is nearly major league ready, so if the glove doesn't catch up fast enough, he could be moved to right field. The bat will play anywhere.

This view is largely confirmed by Tom Tango's Fans Scouting Report:

 Speed 60 Arm Strength 57 First Step 52 Instincts 50 Hands 25 Release 9 Arm Accuracy 0 

Braun grades out as roughly average in several categories, including the range-based metrics of speed and first step. Unfortunately, his hands are bad, and his release and throwing accuracy are off-the-charts bad. And double unfortunately, these would tend to be the categories that are most important for a third baseman; speed doesn't matter much at all, for instance.

Are these things that Braun can work on? Perhaps: I'd certainly hold out more hope that a coach could improve a player's accuracy and release than his arm strength. But the thing is, once a player reaches the major leagues for a competitive club, there isn't much room for experimentation. What's the upside to that experiment? Braun goes from being a way below-average defender at third base to a somewhat below-average one. And then you have to move him in a couple years anyway once he bulks up and slows down. What's the downside? Braun can't or won't improve, or he takes a long time to do so, costing the Brewers runs in the field each week while the experiment in progress. Even worse, you could trigger a crisis of confidence, or detract from his work on his hitting approach, which requires more improvement than you might think. And all of this for what benefit? National League third basemen hit .280/.348/.456 last year, which is actually a bit better than the .275/.344/.442 it got out of its right fielders, and only slightly worse than the .278/.358/.478 from the left field position. The gap in the defensive spectrum between third base and corner outfield is small as compared with the gap between third base and center field or second base.

Braun, in spite have never played the position professionally, is probably much closer to being an adequate defensive corner outfielder than an adequate defensive third baseman. He runs reasonably well, and while his arm is not accurate, it is probably strong enough to deter baserunners from advancing on him Johnny Damon style. And the good news is that there are any number of permutations that would allow the Brewers to improve their defense without really losing any ground at the plate. For example:

• Move Braun to LF, sign Mike Lowell at 3B, sit on Matt LaPorta for a year
• Move Bill Hall to 3B, Braun to RF, and Corey Hart to CF; LaPorta gets the opportunity to make the big league club out of spring training.
• Trade Bill Hall and Claudio Vargas for Joe Crede and Faustino de los Santos, move Hart to CF, Braun to RF.

You get the idea … there are a million ways the Brewers can play this without incurring any real transaction costs.

If Braun does move to the outfield, does he become one of the most valuable commodities in baseball? We'll have to see what PECOTA does with him, since there's room for concern about his plate discipline numbers too. But the worst case would seem to be that he becomes another version of Jeff Francoeur, and that's a pretty good worst-case scenario.

6f3

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[dlk9s]

Maybe I'm overestimating the ability of a coach (whether he's a current Brewers coach or a private instructor) to be able to work with Braun in the off-season on his throwing, but I find it hard to believe that this couldn't be worked out fairly easily over the winter. Granted, I have never played in the pros, but I did play baseball in my younger days and do know that body positioning and release point are the major factors in throwing accuracy.

 

Braun fields the ball reasonably well (he's no vacuum, but he's ok), so I would think that given a couple months of training on footwork once he fields the ball and arm angle, he could increase his accuracy immensely. I don't see any reason why he couldn't be at least an average 3B.

[kgbaseball]

I agree, dlk. It's obvious when you watch him that he has a goofy throwing motion, and if that can't be fixed, you have to question his ability.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hands 25

 

Dlk, not in any way to infer that your opinion...

 

Braun fields the ball reasonably well (he's no vacuum, but he's ok)

 

...doesn't matter, that's a really, really, bad rating for hands. I think he reacts well and gets to some balls that other 3Bs may not, but he's not much with the glove at this point. I hope we can move him to LF this offseason - that 'he negates roughly 75% of his offense' quote made me sick to my stomach.

 

http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/sick.gif

[RyDogg66]

That is a great article and I agree with it completely. we are not in experimentation mode with this team. We are in Win mode.

 

Anyone notice who else consistently made the worst defenders list? Fielder and Hall. We are butchers in the field. Hall the 3b, Braun to RF....NOW!

[colbyjack]

As RyDogg points out, if you go by the numbers, if Braun gets moved Hall should be moved as well. And unfortunately Fielder has nowhere else to go, except for the American League.

 

When I saw Braun play in Nashville it was interesting as he warmed up he would squat down to the ground, yoga-esque (I believe he took yoga last offseason to improve his conditioning and concentration), with his shoulders pointed towards first base. It was clear he was trying to get himself in a better routine fielding his position.

 

When he came to Milwaukee, he ditched that routine, likely so he could avoid being ridiculed. I'm not saying that was why he was horrible or anything like that, but again, it was clear he was taking very obvious measures to try and improve himself at the position, and hopefully that continues over the offseason.

 

I seem to remember Fielder being not as bad last year, and Hall of course is going to have some learning curves figuring out a new, and demanding, position. I do think it would be in the Brewers best interests to do some drastic position changes (I felt they should have done them last year, keeping Hall on the infield), but I have a feeling (as many have pointed out) that the Brewers are sticking with what they have, where they have them.

[pogokat]

it really wouldn't be that hard to put hall in left and hart in center though...

[RyDogg66]

it really wouldn't be that hard to put hall in left and hart in center though...

And Braun in RF?

 

[yoshii8]

Would it really take Bill Hall and Vargas to pick up Joe Crede. Thats a little ambitious. Anyways, I hope that Braun will get better at 3rd next season, but if he doesn't look any better in the first couple weeks of spring training, I would hope they wouldn't be afraid to put him in LF, and put Hall at 3rd

[valpocrewsader]

It's so painful to see three Brewers on that very, very short list. As Silver points out, FRAA is a counting stat, so not only should Braun's figure be worse, but so should Hall's (only 116 starts). The Hall-to-CF move has grinded my gears since day one ... we can't be in "win mode, not experiment mode" as long he's still out there Scotty Smalls-ing it up. I know Hall's stock is low, but I'm hoping we can find a team that needs a shortstop and can give us pitching or an OF that can solve CF better than TGJ or plug a corner and let Corey play pretty much full time CF.

 

What's kindof depressing is that this team's defensive WOAHS are almost insurmountable for a team that's supposed to be contending. Fielder can't go anywhere, should probably be DH-ing already. Braun's never played outfield before and his time at 3B has been garbage. Hall's never played an entire season at 3B before and his first year in CF was abysmal. Weeks is still below average just trying to handle 2B. It's like we're drowning in talented bats that are all fielding the wrong position and there's no correct way to sort them out. Trade and sign strikeout artists for starting pitching, I guess???

[sbrylski]

we are not in experimentation mode with this team.

 

So we should move guys around?

[logan82]

I thought Hall got much better and played a pretty good CF by the end of the season. I think most of his troubles were at the start of the year.

[Fatter than Joey]

we are not in experimentation mode with this team.

 

So we should move guys around?

Well I think there are a couple of points being made.

1.) This isn't 2004 anymore, -- people point to Weeks (small) improvement over a couple of seasons, -- The Brewers could afford to allow for gradual development in years past, not so much now.

2.) What is the positive upside of Braun playing 3rd? -- Realistically I think (at best) he makes an incremental improvement, and he still will be among the worst fielders in MLB, given the fact Prince is not going to help him out at 1st, we still have a black hole at 3rd. I think "experimentation" is perhaps a bad word to use I would use "gamble". I see Braun playing an OF spot less of a gamble than playing 3rd. I think Braun could be at best,, an above average RFer/LFer, or a below average 3b. I don't think the Brewers are in a place to take a lot of gambles, and putting Braun in the OF seems like a good way to hedge a bet. At some point I think his fielding will affect his hitting -- and the thing that Silver's article doesn't touch on -- Craig Counsell -- as long as Braun is playing 3b, we can be assured Ned will be running Counsell out there in late innings, and we won't have Braun available in late innings. If Braun is in the OF, and he gets replaced by Mench/Gross that is a whole lot better than batting Counsell.

 

Anyone notice who else consistently made the worst defenders list? Fielder and Hall.

Yep -- I mentioned this in the MLB thread. I tend to think Prince brings all our IF down a notch -- i.e. he makes an average fielder look like a below average fielder. I believe that any improvement Braun may make, will be compromised by Fielder. I think DM needs to realize that Braun isn't going to improve that much with Prince playing 1b.

 

I think there are 2 trade paths that can be gone down.

 

Acquiring players to play 3b, or acquiring pitchers that just K lots of batters. Guys like Cappy (LH - finese) should be moved.

[endaround]

Except Capuano strikes out a ton of batters. He was 22nd in K/9 for those over 100 innings of work. The Brewers have a relatively high K staff and that still wasn't enough.

[JohnBriggs12]

A Hall for Crede deal makes no sense. Crede is a FA after next season and is coming off back surgery. He's similar to Hall in that he's had one really big year and several OK years so it's not a given that Crede gives an upgrade offensively over Hall who the Brewers have control of for 4 more years.

 

If you move Braun to the OF, the logical move is Hall to 3B.

[Klements Bratwurst]

If Braun is in the OF, and he gets replaced by Mench/Gross that is a whole lot better than batting Counsell.

FTJ, while this is a small issue (1 or 2 innings at most maybe twice or three games a week) it is a very good point. Counsell as we know is so bad with his bat, that any improvement with the glove he gives you is completed negated when he rolls over on pitch and grounds out weakly to first or flys to right with another guy in scoring position.

 

I love Braun as a player, I believe he tries hard, but I think it is painfully obvious that he doesn't have the skill set to play the position. It may take 3 years for him to be average. I don't think we can afford to wait that long given this window of opportunity. Braun will never be a Scott Rolen, but he will be much, much better than Adam Dunn playing in the outfield.

 

If Crede is an option, I wouldn't entertain it, however, I would certainly entertain putting Billy at 3B. Billy might be below average offensively at 3B given his lackluster 2007 campaign, but he would be lightyears better than the Counselnino blackhole. If Billy finds his stroke again, we would be OK there. However, as indicated by Melvin, he wants to add some OBP to the lineup and Bill Hall does struggle with that.

 

Crede isn't good either with getting on base .305 OBP for his career, and couple with the surgery to repair herniated disks this past summer, is not the answer the Brewers should look for, again considering their OBP quest.

[splitterpfj]

Crede is also a free agent after the 08 season, if the Brewers do make a move for him, I sure wouldn't give much right now.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Jeff Sackman, over at Brew Crew Ball (always a nice read), weighs in on Braun's defense too in regards to Nate Silver's article.

Bottom line, he doesn't think the Brewers are going to go the expensive free agent approach to fix 3B, but he does say at the very end of his blog piece that the Brewers seriously need to consider Braun's defensive liabilties at 3B and consider moving him to another position.

He wants to do more analysis on this and how/if Braun's poor defense contributed to the pitching staff's struggles (Cappy) in 2007. I guess we will have to see what he comes up with!

[sbrylski]

Bottom line, he doesn't think the Brewers are going to go the expensive free agent approach to fix 3B, but he does say at the very end of his blog piece that the Brewers seriously need to consider Braun's defensive liabilties at 3B and consider moving him to another position.

 

I'm starting to really agree with this. While I highly doubt Braun will play anywhere but 3B next season, unless he shows improvement I sure hope the organization isn't so stubborn it won't look into sliding him to the OF.

 

You can't just move guys around every year, you have to show some commitment. But at a certian point, they have to realize it'll be for the better of the team. I'm slightly nervous that they'll be so strongly commited to Braun at 3B and Hall in CF that they'll never seriously consider moving them.

[endaround]

There has been a reasn I've bwwn on thw move Braun campaign. He is just incredibly poor. Another thign to keep in mind is that Braun will keep being removed for Counsell late in games. since Yost always double switched to bring Counsell in, it gives Counsell and AB. Assuming this happens 3 times a week, thats about 70 PAs given to Counsell instead of Braun.

 

I just don't see the Brewers doing the move. Especially since Braun is like to see a bit of a let down offensively given his BABIP of .367. Braun hits .280 to start the season and people start to question teh team about Braun being moved.

[igor67]

I was wondering looking at the overall numbers, if Fielder isn't made to look worse by his teammates? He is certainly not great. The thing is that these defensive systems are still evolving and all have some kind of issue. It stands to reason that with an overall infield defense as bad as it is that (and one that shifted as often as it did) that it's possible that the first basemen suffers a sort of non-linear effect. What I'm suggesting is that since the vast majority of plays go through the first basemen if everybody else is bad to historically terrible wouldn't that cause a general drop in the plays made that might be mistakenly taken out on the first basemen.

[Oldcity]

It just makes too much sense to move Braun. The risk of keeping him at third far outweighs the reward. He's never going to be a good third baseman, and it's very unlikely he'll ever even be mediocre. Silver speculates that his defense takes away seventy-five percent of his offensive value!!!

 

No one move would go further towards improving team defense than moving Braun away from third base. Like others have said... The Brewers aren't in rebuilding mode anymore.

[Fatter than Joey]

What I'm suggesting is that since the vast majority of plays go through the first basemen if everybody else is bad to historically terrible wouldn't that cause a general drop in the plays made that might be mistakenly taken out on the first basemen.

 

Very interesting question -- This is almost a chicken/egg situation.

 

My first impression is, that Fielder makes his IF look worse, by not scooping/reaching a lot of balls thrown at him. However I suppose the converse could be true as well -- when Weeks 8 hops one to 1b, Prince loses a putout chance, that a normal throw may have gotten him. Furthermore, If I imagined a guy like Derrek Lee playing 1b, he would record less putouts and his numbers would suffer as well.

 

I think the bottom line is that Weeks/Braun/Fielder are all below average/bad defensive players.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Unless I am mistaken, none of the fielding metrics give credit to the 1B for a "play made" when he registers a putout, unless there is no assist on the play. If somebody else fielded the ball and threw it, the credit goes to him.

Catcher is the hardest position for which to quantify defense. 1B comes in second, since zone data doesn't tell you anything meaningful about throw-receiving, which is probably the single most important defensive skill for the position.

[TooLiveBrew]

It'd be interesting to see some kind of 'OOZ while fielding a throw to 1B' stat. That'a very, very rough way of phrasing it, and the problem that imho will always exist with defensive ratings is the subjectivity to it all.