2008 College Resource Thread

[TooLiveBrew]

The OSU Beavers are going to be back in Portland for a game v. Portland State on the 15th. I don't know who'll be pitching, but I can recap some here if there's anyone worth watching.

[fewgoodcards]

i don't know why buster posey isn't getting some mention for the golden spikes. he is hitting .450 with 9 doubles, 3 triples, 9 homers, 43 runs scored, and 36 RBIs. he also has 4 saves and hasn't allowed a run on the mound.

 

in comparison gordon beckham is hitting .421 with 9 doubles, 1 triple, 15 homers, 43 runs, 36 RBIs, and 9 steals. sure he has a lot more homers and steals, but their production is identical, posey is hitting for a higher average, and beckham doesn't have to worry about pitching.

[colbyjack]

Buster Posey is definitely up there for consideration for the award, and as you mentioned he also closes for the Seminoles adding to his overall value.

 

I guess he's probably hurt the most by his own teammate, Dennis Guinn, who leads the team in HR and RBI, even if it is by a small margin. Posey is clearly the leader on that team, but again, when you have a teammate with offensive production so close to what Posey is doing, it in a way takes away from his numbers.

 

At the mid-way point of the college baseball season, here are some of the more notable draft-eligible pitching prospects and how they're faring this year:

 

Aaron Crow

7-0, 0.69 ERA, 7 games (all starts), 52 IP, 36 H, 67 K, 11 BB

A phenomenal season for Crow, see the comments on him just a few posts above this one.

 

Brian Matusz

6-1, 1.57 ERA, 8 games (7 starts), 51.2 IP, 39 H, 71 K, 15 BB

Another phenomenal season, and Matusz' numbers would be a lot better if it weren't for a shaky first outing to open the season.

 

Tanner Scheppers

4-2, 2.22 ERA, 7 games (all starts), 44.2 IP, 37 H, 64 K, 15 BB

The numbers of the top 3 guys are all pretty similar, and I think Scheppers has cemented his status and deserves to be consistently mentioned in this group.

 

Shooter Hunt

5-0, 1.02 ERA, 7 games (all starts), 44.1 IP, 15 H, 58 K, 27 BB

The hardest college pitcher to hit this spring, but he has walked far too many batters. His 93-94 FB and mid-70s CB should allow him to go in the 10-15 range in the draft.

 

Christian Friedrich

3-1, 2.01 ERA, 7 games (all starts), 44.2 IP, 21 H, 65 K, 19 BB

Hard to get a read on Friedrich since he pitches for Eastern Kentucky in a conference that just isn't very strong. He still is hard to hit and gets a lot of whiffs, but as we've talked about before, those walks need to come down.

 

Tyson Ross

5-0, 1.97 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 32 IP, 18 H, 30 K, 10 BB

Missed a couple of starts due to a minor injury, he's back now as strong as ever. He doesn't have the stuff of the guys listed above here, but you can't argue with the results.

 

Jacob Thompson

4-1, 3.59 ERA, 7 games (all starts), 42.2 IP, 43 H, 40 K, 20 BB

Thompson was more dominant his first two seasons at Virginia. I'm interested to hear a report on his stuff to see if his velocity is down or if he's struggling with control a little more than usual this year.

 

Tim Murphy

2-2, 3.44 ERA, 8 games (7 starts), 49.2 IP, 43 H, 57 K, 19 BB

Murphy has cooled off a little after such a fast start, but his 88-91 FB and hammer curve have already been on scout's radars as a potential first-round pick.

 

Scott Green

3-1, 4.66, 7 games (all starts), 36.2 IP, 35 H, 40 K, 11 BB

Green is another pitcher that got off to a very fast start and has cooled as of late. Kentucky has been scoring a ton of runs, giving Green plenty of run support to carry a 3-1 record despite his ERA. He's still being brought along slowly after having TJ surgery a couple of years ago, and has been showing good stuff so far this spring.

 

Zach Putnam

2-0, 2.27 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 31.2 IP, 23 H, 43 K, 9 BB

Putnam missed a start or two to open the year, and had another rained out. He started slow, but has been cruising lately, throwing in the low-90s with a really good splitter.

 

Lance Lynn

4-0, 3.63 ERA, 7 games (all starts), 39.2 IP, 37 H, 53 K, 13 BB

Lynn is somewhat enigmatic. He throws in the low-90s, and has a pretty good curveball, but has been pretty inconsistent throughout his career. He's a good pitching prospect putting up decent numbers again this year, but I think his ceiling is somewhat limited despite his intimidating presence on the mound.

 

Cody Satterwhite

3-1, 4.38 ERA, 7 games (all starts), 39 IP, 37 H, 27 K, 17 BB

Satterwhite is even more enigmatic that his teammate, Lance Lynn, and a lot more inconsistent. He has power stuff with a golden arm, but he doesn't miss as many bats as he should, he struggles with his command, and has the tendency to get hit pretty hard. Some think he could end up in the bullpen where he could just reach back and fire, but even in that role he has struggled some in the past. Has bumped to Ole Miss' Sunday starter after starting the year with the Saturday job.

 

Cole St. Clair

3-2, 3.56 ERA, 10 games (3 starts), 1 save, 30.1 IP, 33 H, 30 K, 8 BB

As always, St. Clair's command has been pretty good, but he hasn't been as dominant as he has in the past. His velocity looked a little down the time I saw him this year, and wasn't nearly as sharp the times I have seen him before. Rice has been known to wear down arms pretty hard in the past, but I'm not sure that is the case with St. Clair, who has been used more as a reliever and swingman than as a starter.

 

Ryan Perry

1-2, 5.23 ERA, 9 games (6 starts), 31 IP, 34 H, 30 K, 8 BB

Perry's velocity reportedly has been just fine, sitting in the 93-96 range, and his control has been good as well, but when he's hit he's hit hard. He'll get plenty of chances given his golden arm, but you'd like to see someone with his stuff dominate a little more than what he has.

 

Daniel Schlereth

1-0, 1.54 ERA, 14 games (all in relief), 1 save, 23.1 IP, 13 H, 37 K, 12 BB

Schlereth has been very good all year setting up for sophomore closer Jason Stoffel. Schlereth has electric stuff for a lefty, sitting in the low-to-mid-90s with a very sharp slider. I'm more and more impressed with him every time I have the chance to see him pitch.

 

Josh Fields

1-1, 0.00 ERA, 16 games (all in relief), 8 saves, 15.1 IP, 5 H, 32 K, 6 BB

You don't get much more unhittable than Fields, who has one of the nastiest fastball-breaking ball combos in all of college baseball. He and Schlereth both right now could get out big-league hitters, and both have the disposition to succeed in short relief.

 

I intentionally didn't include Brett Hunter and Aaron Weatherford, a few other college pitchers I had highly ranked to open the season, due to injury, as well as Luke Burnett and Brett Jacobson due to ineffectiveness.

[colbyjack]

Onto the hitters:

 

Pedro Alvarez

.238/.448/.619 in 21 AB, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 E

Alvarez just returned last week after missing more than a month due to injury. He reportedly worked really hard on his defense during his time off, and his draft stock won't be effected by this set-back.

 

Gordon Beckham

.419/.507/.871 in 124 AB, 9 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 17 BB, 11 K, 10 for 11 SBs, 3 E

The HR pace has slowed a little the past couple of weeks, but he's getting less to hit as evidenced by his rising walk total. He could be the first college bat off the board.

 

Buster Posey

.458/.554/.833 in 120 AB, 12 2B, 3 3B, 9 HR, 25 BB, 10 K, 6 E, 42% runners gunned down

Posey simply doing it all for the Seminoles, and has positioned himself, along with Beckham, as a legit top 10 overall pick.

 

Justin Smoak

.349/.500/.624 in 109 AB, 9 2B, 7 HR, 32 BB, 18 K, 1 E

Smoak keeps on slugging. I'm not convinced his talent is as good as the amount that has followed him since his impressive showing on the Cape after the summer of 2006.

 

Reese Havens

.375/.500/.675 in 120 AB, 4 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 28 BB, 17 K, 3 E

Half of Havens' power output came during the first week of the season. Nevertheless, he's maintaining a high batting average while playing steady D'.

 

James Darnell

.328/.389/.603 in 131 AB, 6 2B, 10 HR< 15 BB, 23 K, 3 for 3 SBs, 8 E

The most dynamic slugger of the impressive South Carolina trio, the Gamecocks would be the #1 team in the nation if only they had a trio of talented pitchers.

 

Allan Dykstra

.313/.528/.586 in 99 AB, 3 2B, 8 HR, 36 BB, 24 K, 8 E

Dykstra is still a 1B at the pro level despite playing 3B this spring. I have heard a few rumblings that Dykstra could be a dark-horse for the first round, and high in the first-round at that. I'm not convinced, as I don't think Dykstra will ever hit for a high average, and despite the high BB totals, the K totals will also always be up there.

 

Brett Wallace

.389/.521/.717 in 113 AB, 6 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 26 BB, 22 K, 8 for 11 SBs, 4 E

Wallace is holding his own at 3B this spring, but like Dykstra, he's a 1B, or a LF, at the pro level and will always earn his paycheck for his bat. Unlike Dykstra, Wallace should be able to hit for a high average with a great swing and overall approach.

 

Ike Davis

.410/.476/.828 in 122 AB, 18 2B, 11 HR, 18 BB, 15 K, 4 for 5 SBs, 2 E

An extra-base machine, Davis' smooth left-handed swing is started to produce bigger numbers this spring after posting two solid but not spectacular seasons.

 

Petey Paramore

.353/.511/.510 in 102 AB, 7 2B, 3 HR, 32 BB, 17 K, 2 E, 36% runners gunned down

Paramore, Davis and Wallace have been playing together since their freshmen years, and have provided a lethal middle of the Sun Devils lineup that entire time. Paramore's BB rate has slowed a little the past two weeks, and I'm curious if he's being advised to be more aggressive at the plate in an attempt to pad his power numbers.

 

Roger Kieschnick

.303/.424/.689 in 119 AB, 9 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 24 BB, 19 K, 5 for 5 SBs, 0 E, 5 assists from RF

I seemed to have jinxed Kieschnick a few weeks back when I pointed out his fast start. He's got a big swing and is going to K a lot until he tones it down. I don't know if I have ever been more comfortable making a player comparison with any other player, but Kieschnick is Jeromy Burnitz part 2.

 

Eric Thames

.380/.500/.815 in 108 AB, 8 2B, 6 3B, 9 HR, 22 BB, 16 K, 6 for 7 SBs, 1 E

If you read my Crack of the Bat columns, you will know that I'm really high on Thames. His sweet swing and approach is starting to pay off for him with greater power production.

 

David Cooper

.370/.478/.796 in 108 AB, 7 2B, 13 HR, 23 BB, 19 K, 2 E

Cooper, like Thames, is starting to show more power. He always had a sweet lefty swing, as his stock climbs.

 

Jemile Weeks

.402/.469/.773 in 97 AB, 9 2B, 3 3B, 7 HR, 12 BB, 13 K, 9 for 10 SBs, 3 E

Weeks continues his hot start as the game's more dynamic top-of-the-order threat. Some questions about his bat, D' and overall potential have come up from a variety of different sources in recent weeks, but he's been doing this ever since he stepped on campus.

 

Yonder Alonso

.375/.548/.693 in 88 AB, 8 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 35 BB, 14 K, 6 for 9 SBs, 2 E

Some think Alonso may be too patient, and think his swing is tailored more for doubles than homers. I remember the same thing being said about Carlos Pena, a player I think Alonso is very similar to.

 

David Adams

.342/.433/.496 in 117 AB, 6 2B, 4 HR, 21 BB, 14 K, 7 for 8 SBs, 4 E

Adams keeps on hitting, but the power just hasn't shown up as much as many would like to see. It will be interesting to see where he goes in the draft because someone is likely going to take a chance on his offensive potential.

 

Jason Castro

.352/.415/.692 in 91 AB, 8 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 10 BB, 12 K, 0 E, 40% runners gunned down

The third of three catchers profiled, Castro has carried his successful summer on the Cape over to the spring and that will help his draft stock tremendously.

[colbyjack]

More observations on players, mostly underclassmen pitchers from the Baylor-TCU matchup from a week ago and a Florida-Tennessee matchup from Saturday (game 2).

 

Seth Garrison-RHP-TCU

Garrison was known in high school as a two-way star with a power bat that was the equal to his power arm. He started off at Arizona State IIRC as an infielder and transferred to a JC for a year before ending up at TCU, where the team made him a weekend starter. He had TJ surgery last spring, and about a year afterwards he's pitching pretty well for the Horned Frogs. His fastball was mainly 86-89 and he showed a 74-79 slurve that was very good at times. Pitchers recovering from TJ surgery usually get their velocity back first and their command second, but Garrison seems to be the exception to that, as he moved the ball around and commanded his FB well, but his 86-89 mph velocity is about 3-4 ticks down from his usual low-90s readings. He also showed a nice changeup that I saw once, maybe twice. His velocity dropped to the 84-87 range in the 4th-7th innings, but his breaking ball was still sharp. One thing that REALLY concerns me about Garrison is his delivery. He has a pretty prominent head snap falling off to the 1B side of the rubber, as he throws across his body.

 

Craig Fritsch-RHP-Baylor

Fritsch is only a sophomore, and isn't draft eligible until '09, but he interested me since he received back so much positive feedback from Northwoods League managers and scouts. He showed me exactly what they told me: Strong, high waist, wiry strong long limbs, a 88-93 sinking fastball and a sharp 80-81 slider. He has a live armand a very projectable frame, and profiles as a sinker-slider pitcher. I would be interested to see him close, as I think his velocity would spike in short relief, and his slider might be an even more dominant pitch in that situation. Watch Fritsch next year.

 

I'm not going to run down the Baylor lineup, which is full of talent (mostly underclassmen like Fritsch), but I'll quicky note that Dustin Dickerson looks to be a man among boys as a hulking, left-handed slugger, and despite Beemer Weems' struggles this year, he showed a very slick glove and a strong arm from the SS position. Aaron Miller didn't show much in this contest.

 

------------------------------------

 

Bryan Morgado-LHP-Tennessee

Morgado is a redshirt freshman, having missed his true freshman year after having TJ surgery during the fall of 2006. He was leading the SEC in strikeouts going into the game, and I believe was fifth overall in the country. I didn't check to look where he stood after this game, which clearly wasn't his strongest showings. He struggled with his control all game, and was knocked around quite a bit. The only positive I can say about him despite his struggles is that other than a two-run home run, none of the hits off of him were hit particularly hard, and some of them were dribblers that just happened to find the outfield. His fastball, which reportedly has been in the low-90s this spring, was 86-89 for most of this day. You could tell he was struggling a little with repeating his delivery, which definitely effected his control, as his fastball velocity would vary greatly from pitch-to-pitch (84 to 89 on two consecutive pitches in the fourth inning). He showed one really nasty slider but the rest were just kind of there. The really good one was 79 and dove in the dirt for a K the second batter of the game. He has a 3/4 delivery and an aggressive approach, and I'd love to see him pitch on any other day. He'll be draft eligible as a sophomore next year.

 

Tommy Toledo-RHP-Florida

I believe I've commented on Toledo earlier in this thread, and he showed me the same stuff he did before. A very consistent approach and pretty good command of a 87-89 sinking fastball and a mid-70s breaking pitch. It looks as though he throws both a curve and a slider, with one variation of the pitch slicing away from RH batters and the other dropping straight down, but oddly both pitches were right in the 74-76 range, and typically you will see the slider thrown a few ticks harder than one's curve. This is the third time I've seen Toledo this year and I'm very impressed by his success as a freshman. My only concern is his ceiling, as if he were pitching like this as a junior I don't know how high he would be drafted with a 87-89 FB.

 

Kentrail Davis-CF-Tennessee

Keep an eye open for Davis in the 2010 draft. He was one of my favorite prospects from a year ago, and his affiliation with Scott Boras seemed to have gotten the best of his draft status. Like most Boras clients, he didn't mind ending up at college, and still shows the same great approach, presence and bat speed early in his college career that made me a big fan of his in high school.

 

Cole Figueroa-SS-Florida

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Figueroa = Jon Jay. He's a 2B at the pro level, and if Jay played 2B right now he may be one of the better 2B prospects in all of baseball.

[tigersfanatic1]

Aaron Crow's scoreless streak ended last night. He was pounded for 9 ER in 5 innings against Texas.

I doubt it will hurt his draft stock. Even good pitchers will have a few rough starts.

[fewgoodcards]

Aaron Crow's scoreless streak ended last night. He was pounded for 9 ER in 5 innings against Texas.

 

I doubt it will hurt his draft stock. Even good pitchers will have a few rough starts.

something funny was going on last night. not only did crow get blasted, but mizzou scored 31 runs.

 

[colbyjack]

And Crow still picked up the win last night despite getting knocked around. Kyle Russell of Texas appears to be heating up as well.

 

Brian Matusz gave up 4 ER last night as well, with Shooter Hunt picking up his first loss of the season while getting hit more than usual (with his usual amount of walks issued).

 

Kentucky walked Gordon Beckham three times in the first game of their series, the second and third of those three intentional, which seemed to be a wise move since he had an RBI double during his fourth plate appearance.

 

Lots of good games on the TV this weekend. I'll share my usual observations in the next few days.

[colbyjack]

Here are a few observations from a Western Kentucky vs. Kentucky game, a Louisville vs. Kentucky game (that got cut short due to a TW Cable DVR error) and last night's Tulane vs. Houston matchup. Some of the observations on the Kentucky players are lumped together.

 

James Paxton-LHP

Low 3/4 delivery, athletic frame. Commands FB well with good run to it. Loopy breaking ball, not nearly as sharp as FB command, although he did sharpen up the pitch to get out of a jam in the third. He induced a bunch of ground balls in 3 innings of work. He's a sophomore and not draft eligible until next year. Good, not great prospect.

 

Collin Cowgill-CF

High energy CF that is having a huge year at the plate. Crush two home runs in this game, showing off some impressive bat speed. One was a fastball down the pipe that he yanked, the other was a hanging CB that he crushed to deep CF. Very aggressive player. Physically resembles Brian Giles with shorter stature, yet he's well put together. He's taking more pitches this year than what I've seen in the past, but he will need to tone down his swing to cut down on the Ks. He has a strong, accurate arm and gets down the line pretty quickly.

 

Sawyer Carroll-RF

Left-handed hitter that is much more disciplined that Cowgill. Takes a ton of pitches. Showed a nice inside out swing to lace an RBI double down the LF line in the first inning.

 

Aaron Lovett-RHP

Tall, projectable senior RHP. Sinking FB with pretty good command. He has a very sharp CB, but also has the tendency to leave both pitches up in the zone, and he just doesn't throw hard enough to get away with that consistently.

 

Clint Tilford-RHP

Sophomre RHP eligible in '09. Good size with a strong mid-section and upper legs. Lands too tall in his delivery and uses too much arm. Nice sinking FB and a pretty good slider. His slider is a wipe-out pitch used to get batters chasing in the dirt. Also throws a slower, CB version of his BB that he gets over for strikes. Nice 3-pitch arsenal. I think he's pitching in the NWL this summer, so I hope to catch him.

 

I also watched Tilford pitch against Louisville, a game from this past week. He started a little wild in this contest, but was getting some gratuitous outside strike calls from the ump. Got Chris Dominguez swinging at a slider in the dirt. I really like the way Tilford pitches, even if he looked better vs. Western Kentucky.

 

Andrew Albers-LHP

Former Brewers draft pick, senior now. Lower 3/4 delivery than Paxton (and a fellow Canuck). Shorter lefty that throws soft stuff. Well proportioned, good pickoff move but limited pro potential.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Chris Dominguez-3B-Louisville

Huge physical stature with an equally big swing. Imposing presence is similar to Albert Pujols', but he's going to have to significantly cut down on his swing to be successful as a pro. He is likely going to have to move to either 1B or a corner OF spot at the next level, as he doesn't have the lateral quickness to stick at the hot corner, but he does have a strong arm. Definite boom or bust type of prospect as a draft-eligible sophomore.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Shooter Hunt-RHP-Tulane

It was nice to see Hunt again after seeing him in person over a month ago. He was still pitching the exact same way, sitting in the 90-94 range with a very good curveball. He commands his curveball better than his fastball, and as I saw before, he really needs to pitch more aggressively with his heater, as he often works away from RH batters which gets him behind in counts and leads to his high walk totals. This could be easily corrected with the right pitching coach at the pro level, and as far as I know he's pitching away from contact at the college level for a reason. He still struck out 8 batters in 5+ innings of work despite walking 4 or 5 and giving up 4 runs. He was still working in the 91-92 range in the 5th and 6th, although he was maintaining the 93-94 velocity into the later innings when I saw him in person. I also like his delivery, and despite the lofty walk totals, I'm really interested to see what he can do as a pro with the right instruction. Hunt did have one really impressive inning, the 4th, in which he struck out the first two batters with three pitches each (pitching more aggressively with his FB) while getting the third batter in the inning to flyout on the first pitch.

 

Wes Musick-LHP-Houston

This is the first time I have ever seen Musick, and I was very impressed. Unlike Hunt, Musick is very aggressive with his FB, thrown in the 88-91 range with some dip and run to it, velocity that he maintained deep into the game (he was 88-90 in the 6th and 7th). He also showed a nice CB in the 71-74 range, not as sharp as Hunt's but still a nice pitch. He only threw a couple of changeups, but one of them just died at the plate to get a K to end either the 2nd or 3rd inning. He doesn't have the most projectable frame, and physically resembles Mike Hampton. He kept getting better as the game wore on, shutting down Tulane 1-2-3 in both the 6th and 7th innings. Did a nice job inducing groundballs as well, and I must say that I was more impressed with Musick in this one outing than what I've seen of Tim Murphy and even Christian Friedrich in the past since Musick commands his FB so well and doesn't rely on his CB nearly as much.

[colbyjack]

Georgia has already taken this weekend series from Kentucky, the two best teams (minus Florida) from the SEC East.

 

Gordon Beckham

Kentucky has made it pretty clear that they didn't want Beckham to beat them in this series, intentially walking him in the 1st with no outs and runners on second and third. In the 2nd Beckham laced a low fastball to deep RCF for a double, with the ball carrying all the way to the wall. His bat speed once again was evident. He missed twice on home runs in this contest, crushing a curveball in the 3rd to deep CF and hitting another flyout in the 6th driving a 88 mph fastball to RF in which he was robbed of another HR. He walked in the 8th showing a very patient eye, not getting much to hit. Defensively, he made an error in the 1st allowing a groundball to sneak under his glove while making a very good play charging a soft grounder to nail the runner at 1st. For comparison sake, think Khalil Greene given his physical stature and pop at the plate.

 

For reports to come from this game tomorrow...

 

Scott Green-RHP-Kentucky

Green got hit around quite a bit in this game, but also was hit with some hard luck with poor defense playing behind him (there were a few errors in the two innings he pitched as well as a couple of other plays that weren't listed as errors but plays that should have been made). The most obvious part about Green is his huge physical stature, as I believe he's listed at 6'8", 240 pounds. He wears his hat low on his brow, doesn't show any emotion and overall looks kind of scary. He's a well proportioned big guy and does a good job repeating his delivery. His FB was in the 87-94 range, which is quite a bit of variation in two innings of work. His CB was in the 78-79 range and his slider was 80-81. He used his slider to get batters fishing while his curve is the one he drops in the zone (he throws the curve more frequently). He lands pretty upright in his delivery, but there is zero effort to his delivery, as it really does look like he's just playing catch. He pounded the strike zone with both his FB and CB, which is why there was so much contact off of him. It's hard to say if this approach will work for him as a pro, as pitching to contact generally works better at the next level, but some of the hits were hit pretty hard. This was only the second time I've had the chance to see Green pitch, and it remains hard to get a feel for what he's capable of at the next level.

 

Stephen Dodson-RHP

Georgia's starter that opposed Green and fared much better. Dodson has long, wiry limbs and somewhat of a herky-jerky delivery that makes him hard to pick up. His FB, which sits in the 88-90 range, has nice, natural sinking movement to it, and he also throws a really nice hard slurve in the 79-80 range. He keeps the ball down and changes speeds effectively. Obviously he has a limited ceiling, but he's a polished sinker-slider pitcher that could move quickly through the lower levels of the minor leagues.

 

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Allan Dykstra-1B-Wake Forest

I also caught parts of a Virginia Tech-Wake Forest contest yesterday. Not much to report on Dykstra, as I've already talked about him in the past. He's a huge left-handed hitter with an upright stance in the batter's box and a very intimidating presence. Huge raw power, although it wasn't on display on this day. He actually showed a nice piece of hitting by lacing a low outside FB in the first inning for an RBI double. VT intentionally walked him in the 3rd with runners on 2nd & 3rd with 2 out, struck out swinging on a high FB in the 6th and walked again in the 8th. I know Dykstra is being rumored as a possible first-round pick, but I just don't see it. I really worry about his ability to hit for average at the next level, and sometimes I think he can be too patient letting too many good pitches to hit sail by. The power alone however is exciting, and his upside profile is similar to that of Adam Dunn's.

[colbyjack]

Buster Posey continues to swing a very hot bat, and as fewgoodcards made a case for a week or two ago, he is making a legitimate case for the Golden Spikes award.

 

FSU already completed their weekend series with Boston College yesterday, so through the weekend Posey is hitting .469/.571/.862 in 130 ABs with 15 2B, 3 3B and 10 HR. He has a 29 to 10 BB to K ratio, 6 errors and has thrown out 40% of opposing baserunners. He's drawing praise this spring for his continued improved defense, and I don't think anyone doubts that this guy is going to be able to hit.

 

Meaning, there's virtually no chance he falls to the Brewers pick at #16.

[lonestar]

I was going to ask about Carroll and Cowgill. About where do you think they will be drafted?

[colbyjack]

I think Cowgill goes by the end of the 2nd round, possibly as early as the sandwich round, Carroll is probably a 3rd to 7th rounder based on his production more than his tools.

[DAS1410]

Colby,

 

If Posey keeps this up, could you see him as the #1 pick?

 

With Tampa's recent draft record, and need at catcher, they seem to be the one team

that could take a small gamble, especially for a kid with local ties (Florida State), stats,

tools and intangibles.

[fewgoodcards]

colby, do you know what is up with christian friedrich? he missed his start this weekend.

[Madtown Bomber]

I know by 2 multiple sources that the Brewers brass was in Wichita Friday and Saturday to watch Wichita State 3B Conor Gillaspie. I don't know much about him but I was told the Brewers spent an insane amount of time around the program and with Gillaspie in the past few weeks.

[fewgoodcards]

I know by 2 multiple sources that the Brewers brass was in Wichita Friday and Saturday to watch Wichita State 3B Conor Gillaspie. I don't know much about him but I was told the Brewers spent an insane amount of time around the program and with Gillaspie in the past few weeks.

i would think they are looking at him for one of their picks at 32 or 35.

 

[colbyjack]

If Posey keeps this up, could you see him as the #1 pick?

 

Sorry I missed this before. No, I don't think Posey will go #1 overall, unless the Rays are looking to save some $$$. He's a very good ballplayer, and one that I have shared quite a bit of love for this entire spring, but I don't think he's a true impact type of talent that typically goes first overall.

 

And sorry fewgoodcards, I haven't heard if anything is wrong with Friedrich. BA has been doing a pretty good job keeping up with injuries so I would expect something to come out from them (did they have a chat this afternoon?) soon.

 

As for Wichita State and Gillaspie, he definitely would fit in with one of the team's picks in the sandwich round, which is where he's slated to go. He has a good lefty bat, and tore up the Cape League last summer. I'm a little concerned with his power potential, but he's Cirillo-esque in that he should hit for a fairly high average, hit his fair share of doubles while playing good defense at the hot corner. His lefty bat is a plus for a system that doesn't have too many lefty sticks, and the team has stated that they feel they have an organizational weakness at both third base and catcher.

 

However, I don't see too much power in his swing (15-20 max), which IMO may be the difference between him going 16th overall and in the sandwich round.

 

The Brewers likely were also checking out RHP Aaron Shafer who has a picture-perfect pitcher's frame and a solid 3-pitch arsenal, although he pitches in the 88-91 range, topping out around 93, which may not be the ideal velocity for a RHP, meaning his ceiling is somewhat limited. I caught a Wichita State game this weekend, among others, and will share my thoughts in the new day or two (Gillaspie had 3 hits including a double and a walk in the WSU game).

[colbyjack]

Plenty of updates today from the past week or so.

 

I briefly caught Xavier Scruggs of UNLV, who is having a big season, and Roger Kieschnick of Texas Tech before my DVR failed me. I followed Scruggs last summer as he turned heads in the NWL league, but similar to the reports I received on him last summer, while he has a big, muscular body, he's on the stiff side and his swing is rather long. The long swing is something that hurts Kieschnick as well, but his lefty bat, power potential and strong right-field arm makes him a candidate to go in the top 2 rounds.

 

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Long Beach State vs. UC Irvine

 

Shane Peterson-1B-LBSU

Looked the same as he did in the Cape last summer with an upright stance and level swing that reminds me an awful lot of former big-leaguer Dave Magadan. He hits to contact, and hasn't had much power in his career, but some think that his power will develop later in his career. He also reportedly has a better glove than the amount of errors he has recorded so far, and his strikeout totals (near 30 I think) are also surprising. I think he could hit for average while hitting his fair share of doubles, but the lack of power for a first baseman/left fielder type is concerning.

 

Jason Corder-OF-LBSU

Corder is finally having a big season after being a highly touted prep recruit 4-5 years ago now. He has a big, strong frame and equally big power. In the game I watched he yanked a low FB to LF for a HR. The swing can be long and his frame is a little on the stiff side, but he has the power potential to profile at a corner OF or 1B, although I'm not sure how well he's going to hit for average.

 

Danny Espinosa-SS-LBSU

A switch-hitting, Espinosa looks like he's trying to do way too much at the plate. I've had this impression of him before, as his swing is long and he's far too aggressive, swinging as though he's trying to knock it out every time he's at the plate. That's never going to be his game, as he would benefit from staying within himself and going with the pitch more often, as he still will hit his fair share of homers with this approach. In particular, he really struggles with hard stuff inside. His glove is what is going to get him drafted early, as he has a wiry strong frame and quick-twitch actions and a very strong arm.

 

Bryan Shaw-CL-LBSU

Shaw has a shorter yet stocky-strong frame. He has a very hard and heavy FB that he commands very well. He pitches aggressively and to contact as he doesn't mess around. His breaking ball is definitely a work in progress, as he showed a few good ones and a few that didn't do much, and he struggled to command the pitch, especially in comparison to his FB.

 

Ollie Linton-CF-UC Irvine

Short, diminutive but pesky little bugger. He reminded me of Lance Johnson, as he's never going to hit for much power, but he shows a good eye along with a slap & dash approach that could allow him to get on base at a fairly high clip at the next level where he's able to show off his game-changing speed on the bases.

 

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Mississippi vs. South Carolina

 

Justin Smoak-1B-USC

Smoak has been a well-known commodity for quite some time now. He shows big-time bat speed from both sides of the plate as a switch-hitter, although it was noted during the broadcast that he's actually a natural right-handed hitter, which is odd for a left-handed thrower. He has a good stance and very good presence and has a nice swing path made for power and driving in runs. He's a flyball hitter with a natural uppercut to his swing and he shows a disciplined approach at the plate. In this contest he drove a FB to deep LCF as a right-handed hitter in the 4th inning.

 

Reese Havens-SS-USC

Havens looks like a big-leaguer, with a strong athletic frame. He's confident and carries a swagger about him. He too shows very good bat speed and a patient approach from an open stance. He holds his hands away from his body, and is able to pull them in quickly to yank inside pitches to RF. He's been batting leadoff for the Gamecocks latelly, and does a good job getting on base for their potent lineup. I still think he could play SS to at least begin his pro career even if everyone seems to think he'll have to move to 3B down the road.

 

James Darnell-3B-USC

Probably my favorite of the 3 Gamecock sluggers, Darnell is a great looking athlete that probably will move to RF at the pro level as I don't think he has the lateral quickness for the hot corner. He definitely has the arm for any position. Darnell has great extension on his swing which should translate into great power potential with a wood bat at the professional level. The ball jumps off his bat, and he has also shown the ability to shorten his swing in hit and run and other similar situations. He'll probably always strike out quite a bit, but you'll take it if he produces like he's capable of.

 

Cody Overbeck-3B-Ole Miss

Physically Overbeck resembles Ryan Zimmerman, but he's not that good of an overall athlete and may have to move to LF as a pro. He has a nice level stroke and drives the ball to the gaps. He hit an RBI sngle in the 3rd on a chopper that found a hole on the left side of the infield, and ripped a FB from a right-handed side-arming pitcher in the 9th for a HR to LF. His bat is made for contact, and he shows a good eye. There's a little power in his swing, but overall I don't know if he does anything well enough to stand out as a pro.

 

Drew Pomeranz-LHP-Ole Miss

Pomeranz is a freshman that bumped RHP Cody Satterwhite from the Saturday starter's role to Sunday. He has very good FB velocity (no radar gun readings though) and is aggressive with that pitch. He has a loopy breaking ball that needs to be tightened up, as he showed a few very good ones, particularly in an AB with Havens in the 3rd inning in which he used his curve to set up his fastball that got Havens striking out swinging. Definitely a player to watch over the next two years.

 

Scott Bittle-RP-Ole Miss

Bittle was all over the place, with a max effort delivery a good fastball and a very, very nasty slider. His stuff made him effectively wild, as the Gamecocks couldn't catch up with his stuff. He also showed a pretty nifty changeup/splitter, but his delivery will likely keep him in the bullpen. He works down in the and misses down a lot, and his FB has some late diving action to it. He did a very nice job getting out of a 7th inning jam, and his confidence soared through the 8th and 9th innings because of it.

[colbyjack]

David Sappelt-CF-Coastal Carolina

Broad shoulders, thick chest. Short and stocky, looks 5'6" or so. Very good bat speed. Good arm, good instincts. Very patient eye at the plate. Hit a flare 1B to shallow LF in 1st. Nice diving catch in 2nd in the LCF gap (stumbled a little bit but showed good speed to recover). Had an odd check swing pop out to the pitcher in the 3rd (accident swing, weak hit). Confident, looks more like a running back. GO to 3B in 5th (good speed down the line). Skipped a 1B to LF through the hole on left side of the IF in the 7th. Drove a high, outside FB to deep RCF for SF in 8th.

 

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Wichita State vs. Creighton

 

Conor Gillaspie-3B-WSU

Left-handed hitter with a crouched stance. Very good eye at the plate, level, line drive swing. Quiet stance and strong, quick hands. Doesn't use batting gloves. Single up the middle in the first, strikeout looking in the third, walk in the 5th, FO in the 7th (a good, deep drive), RBI single in the 8th, ripped a high inside FB down the RF line for a double in the 9th. Should hit for average, power potential is limited, and plays good D' at 3B.

 

Andy Dirks-CF-WSU

I covered Sappelt, Dirks, Ruf, Senne and Scruggs in the NWL last summer, and all were among the top prospects (or at least received consideration in the case of Scruggs). Dirks has good size and nice athletic proportions for a CF. He's an on-base machine that takes a lot of pitches, draws walks, seems to get hit by pitches more than most players and has the ability to hit the gaps. He does put a lot of balls on the ground, and while he has good speed, he doesn't have enough speed to run out infield hits consistently or avoid double play balls. He plays very nice defense in center with very good range and instincts, and made a really nice play tracking down a deep shot to RCF by Ruf.

 

Aaron Shafer-RHP-WSU

Great stature and a smooth delivery. FB has some sink in the 88-91 range, touching 93 or so. Good FB command, and also shows a very good CB and a nifty CH. Commands all 3 pitches well. Can induce groundballs for double plays, and his stuff plays better as the game progresses, mixing up his repertoire to keep hitters guessing.

 

Darin Ruf-1B-Creighton

Big, RH hitter. Physically resembles Mark Teixeira with a big yet loose, athletic and powerful build, a high waist and thick, strong upper legs. Employs somewhat of an open stance. Shows very good bat speed and the willingness to go with a pitch. Can drive the ball the opposite way to deep RCF. Also has a really slick glove and some speed to go along with his size. A sleeper draft-eligible candidate at 1B.

 

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Oklahoma St. vs. Missouri

 

Jordy Mercer-SS-Oklahoma St.

Tall, angular athlete with nice athletic proportions. Big for a shortstop, but has plenty of range and a very strong arm for the position. Has good bat speed and extension giving him solid power for a middle infielder. Looked to be fooled more on breaking pitches. Skyed a outside hanging CB to deep LF for a 2-run HR in the 9th inning of this contest.

 

Aaron Senne-LF-Missouri

Sophomore OF, isn't draft eligible until 2009, but is having a big year this season after impressing scouts in the NWL last summer. Long limbs, strong lower half, has room to fill out upper body over time. You can definitely see the Paul O'Neil comparisons he drew last summer. Good plate coverage and extension with his LH swing, which led to 9 HRs last summer in the NWL using a wood bat. Not the greatest bat speed, but again, the extension is there for power. Has decent speed and a strong enough arm to play CF, and could also play RF.

 

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Texas vs. Oklahoma State

 

Andrew Oliver-LHP-OSU

This was an incredible pitching battle in which the game ended I believe 2-1 in the 11th or 12th inning. Oliver is the Sooners ace, a sophomore that likely will be one of the top prospects for the '09 draft. He has very good size and proportions, and throws a very good fastball aggressively that hitters have a hard time catching up with. He has a slow windup for a fast arm through delivery, and ball appears to explode out of his hand. His slow windup creates some deception which makes him that much harder to hit. He has nice mound presence and looks as though he was born to pitch. He threw a nice CH at one point, and mixed in a couple of breaking balls, but for the most part wa getting a ton of out with his FB, which he commanded better and better as the game progressed.

 

Chance Ruffin-RHP-Texas

Son of former big-leaguer Bruce, Chance is a freshman getting the ball on Friday for the first time as the Longhorns have struggled to find a staff ace. He has a fast, deceptive herky-jerky delivery with an exaggerated leg kick, although the extra moving parts don't look to put any added stress on his arm. His fastball sits in the upper-80s touching the low-90s, but his bread & butter is a nasty true CB thrown in the 73-75 range. This pitch has tremendous break to it. He has a smaller build, but everything he does and throws seems to work extremely well for him. I thinkt he Longhorns found their Friday ace, as he went 10 innings tossing only 104 pitches, showing very good command pitching very efficiently.

[lonestar]

thanx, CJ, I was in the midst of writing a long post about a 3B smackdown from a Minnesota Twins perspective where they draft #14, #27, #31, #60, #92, #126, etc.

 

Where do Havens and Gillaspie rank in the draft? I think you pick Gillaspie for the consolation round?

If you were the Twins would you bet a commensurate draft pick on them?

 

Is there any way of knowing how Havens would handle the transition to 3B. The throws aren't the same. The reaction time is definitely different.

 

You have eliminated Darnell from consideration at 3B. Help me appreciate him at RF (also a need for the Twins, especially a RHB). I don't think his BB rates will give him a decent enough OBP (not that the Twins know how to spell OBP)?

 

Who else should be considered?

[fewgoodcards]

if you are looking at gillaspie, havens, and darnell you should be able to get one of them at 27 or 31. you would probably have your choice at 27, but 1 or 2 could be gone at 31. i am thinking havens could be a real possibility for the red sox at 30, so if you want him you may have to take him at 27. they should all 3 be gone by 60.

[colbyjack]

I'm not sure how many people here watch CSTV/CBS College Sports, but I was on their sports report show last night discussing my top 5 college hitters & pitchers. It was a pre-recorded phone interview from the televised Sportscenter-esque program.

 

fewgoodcards already touched on the college 3B that will be available in the late 1st/supplemental round, and while I think Darnell will eventually have to move to RF, he could stick at 3B for the right team. He's a good enough athlete, I just think he's a better fit in the OF. His power is so easy as he's able to hit home runs to all parts of the ballpark. You're right, he doesn't walk a ton, but he's a potential impact slugger, and as long as he gets on base enough, I wouldn't really worry about the walks at this point in time.

 

Havens should be able to handle the throws from 3B. 2B is even an option for him, and I think some teams would be patient enough to keep him at SS for the next 2-3 years.

 

As for who else should be considered, you already covered the college 3B that will be available in this range. For RF a guy like Roger Kieschnick could be a good fit, as could Dennis Raben. I'm a big fan of Pepperdine's Eric Thames, who is more of a LF since he doesn't have much of an arm, but he's one heck of a hitter.

[lonestar]

Thanx, CJ.

 

I like Thames a lot, in part due to your write-ups. He must play in the toughest hitting environments in college (based on 2004-2007 park factors). Still #27-31 seems a little rich for a guy who can only play LF. About where do you think he ranks? Do you think he could suffice in CF if the regular CF was being rested or out for 15 days, giving a team roster flexibility?

 

Jonathan Mayo thinks Ike Davis can be a solid corner OF and he has the arm to play RF. What do you think? About where does he rank?

 

I noticed you left both Thames and Davis off your list of 61.

[colbyjack]

Don't rely on the 61 list. My top 30 is the only part that is truly ranked, as there are a lot of players missing in that 31-61 range.

 

Davis has a good chance to go in the first round, and yes, he can play RF although he doesn't have the greatest foot speed. He's playing 1B this year, which would be his best position, in an attempt to make the most of ASU's glut of OFs, which is also why Brett Wallace, who is also best at 1B, is playing 3B.

 

Thames could very well sneak into the first round, but more likely is a sandwich pick or early 2nd rounder. I could care less about his arm given how good he is with the bat, and yes, I do think he could play CF if he needed to. Again, his best, most natural position is LF, but I think he played CF in the NWL last summer.