2008 College Resource Thread

[colbyjack]

One thing that I have mentioned recently is the spreadsheet that I have assembled, collecting all of the stats (regular season and summer results) from the more notable college players in the nation. I always warn that stats at any amateur level need to be taken with a grain of salt, but that you may be able to make some assessments based on splits and ratios and how well hitters handle the wood bats during the summer.

 

I decided to start the 2008 college resource thread early this year so that some of these results were easily accessible throughout next spring.

 

Here are some of the statistical leaders with other observations mixed in:

 

Pedro Alvarez-3B-Vanderbilt

The favorite to go first overall in next year's draft, and he has the numbers to back it up. Among the players that I accumulated stats for, Alvarez is the leader over the past two years (again, cumulative stats between his spring and summer -- he spent his two summers with Team USA -- campaigns) in batting average (.358), on-base percentage (.455), slugging percentage (.654), hits (259) and total bases (473) in 723 ABs. His 55 doubles and 49 home runs are also among the best.

 

Justin Smoak-1B-South Carolina

A favorite to go in the top 10 of next year's draft, Smoak has the most home runs (53) over the past two years between two springs at South Carolina, a summer on the Cape and a summer with Team USA. Overall he has hit .294/.397/.571 in 756 ABs.

 

Conor Gillaspie-3B-Wichita State

Gillaspie had a huge summer, being named the Cape's MVP. His 808 ABs over the past two years are the best among those broken down, and his 54+ doubles are also the best (I didn't have all of the numbers for his 2006 summer season with the California League, but considering he hit .388 with 54 hits, I think its fair to say that a good deal of those hits were doubles). Georgia SS Gordon Beckham was first in doubles (57) among those I had complete statistical data for.

 

Jemile Weeks-2B-Miami

Despite not playing anywhere this summer and having his spring campaign shortened due to injury, Weeks has the most triples over the past two years with 15. He also had the second-most stolen bases (34) and the most stolen base attempts (46). Overall Weeks has hit .332/.431/.531 in 552 ABs which includes a very impressive .343/.462/.546 line from his time spent with Team USA during the summer of 2006.

 

Jordan Danks-OF-Texas

Danks is an incredibly interesting player in that he has a very big frame (6'5", 200 pounds) and an exciting blend of speed and power. He has the most stolen bases among those profiled (42) and the second-most attempts (45) giving him a very impressive success rate (93%). His 11 triples were tied for second with Virginia's David Adams, and overall he has hit .331/.449/.512 in 568 ABs, showing a very disciplined eye at the plate (115 walks).

 

Allan Dykstra-1B-Wake Forest

Speaking of walks, Dykstra has the most over the past two years (158), which includes two good showings on the Cape. He has also been hit the most times (45) and is tied with Miami's Yonder Alonso for the most sac flies (16). Sac flies IMO are a somewhat overlooked stat, as I personally feel that it shows a hitter's ability to lift balls deep to the OF in specific situations (less than two outs with a runner on third). Overall Dykstra has hit .297/.451/.555 in 676 ABs (Alonso has hit .325/.443/.562 in 687 ABs).

 

Kyle Russell-OF-Texas

Danks' OF mate for the Longhorns who garnered an incredible amount of attention last spring for his home run pace (he hit 28 last spring). The biggest concern about Russell is his huge swing, which is how his name landed in this category, as he has whiffed 217 times in 609 ABs during his two years at Texas and the summers in between (one on the Cape, one in the Cal summer league). Overall he has hit .279/.388/.583, but similar to Matt LaPorta as a similar stage in his career, Russell is going to need to figure out a way to tone down that swing if he's going to enjoy success at the next level.

 

Speaking of BB:K ratios, only three players had more BBs than Ks: Alonso (145:113), Dykstra (158:137), Charlie Cuter (70:54 in 576 AB), Petey Paramore (107:86 in 460 AB), Jared Prince (59:50 in 469 AB), Josh Romanski (53:49 in 435 ABs) and Weeks (85:69 in 552 AB).

 

Onto the pitchers. It should be noted that most of the more prominent starters are right around 230-240 innings, with several of them not pitching during the summer of 2006, most likely to give their arms a much needed break after their freshmen campaigns.

 

Jacob Thompson-RHP-Virginia

Thompson has the most wins (22) the best cumulative ERA (1.95) and the lowest WHIP (1.03) among the more prominent starters available for next year's draft. If his stuff matched his production (he maxes out around 93, pitches in the 88-91 range) matched his production, people would be talking about him like they did David Price a year ago.

 

Christian Friedrich-LHP-Eastern Kentucky

Friedrich's 21 wins were one short of Thompson's lead, as was his 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but he does have the most strikeouts with 307 in 232.2 IP and has been very successful so far during his collegiate career.

 

Scott Gorgen-RHP-UC Irvine

Gorgen has the most innings pitched with 257.1, and also is tied for second in wins with Friedrich with 21.

 

Lance Lynn-RHP-Ole Miss

Lynn takes the honor for having the most walks among starters with 104. Luke Burnett of Louisiana Tech has the most as a starter although he projects to pitch in relief at the pro level with 111.

 

Jeremy Bleich-LHP-Stanford

Bleich holds an equally dubious honor of having the most losses (15) and for giving up the most hits (255). This crafty lefty doesn't seem very crafty at all.

 

Cole St. Clair-LHP-Rice

I've shared my interest in St. Clair before, whose has some of the most impressive stats across the board, highlighted by his 0.91 WHIP. He is 13-2 with a 2.05 ERA in 175.2 innings of work, giving up only 106 hits and 54 walks with 231 punchouts. He has been used predominantly as a reliever during his college career, but could be tried as a starter either next spring or at the next level given his three-pitch repertoire.

 

While the 2008 class isn't as stocked with college closers as the 2007 draft class was, there are quite a few names that are starting to emerge as potential early round picks. Arizona's Ryan Perry is one of these pitchers, who along with Luke Burnett have first-round potential after impressive showings on the Cape. Fields and St. Clair are two hold-overs from this past year that could easily reclaim their status as potential first-round picks, while scouts are still enamored with Cody Satterwhite's arm despite less than impressive results (the same is true for Perry and Burnett). Brett Hunter has been one of the more productive pitchers the last two years, but he may serve as Pepperdine's Friday ace next spring.

 

One closer to keep an eye out for is Bryan Shaw of Long Beach State, who has a diving low to mid-90s fastball and an improving slider. He has 30 saves so far during his college career, and his 1.10 WHIP is fourth among all of the pitchers that I broke down (Thompson, Friedrich, St. Clair). Overall he is 10-5 with a 2.31 ERA in 70 relief appearances. In 109 IP he has allowed 83 hits and 37 walks with 117 strikeouts. I think Shaw is poised for a huge season at Long Beach State, a team that overall I think will make some noise next spring.

 

If you're interested in any specific players not mentioned here, let me know. Overall I have broken down 34 hitters, 25 starters and 12 relievers.

[Madtown Bomber]

Hey Colby, It looks more and more every day like Cordero and Linebrink are not going to return and if I figured right that means that the Brewers could have 6 picks in the first two rounds and possibly five picks before they even reach round two. If I have type A rules wrong correct me. If this is the case then the Brewers could take some reaches on guys who can fast track to the big club immediately. My question is then St. Clair and Shaw seem to be the top closers in this draft but is there any major league ready pitchers/closers that could come in on the fast track and sure up the bullpen for a possible playoff run?

[Madtown Bomber]

maybe I should have read some of the topics below huh? haha

 

Who are the top closers in this draft? Or even pitchers that could fast track?

[colbyjack]

Yes, I do believe Cole St. Clair could be that guy that moves up incredibly quick, somewhat of a left-handed version of Huston Street. He has been just so incredibly efficient, has good stuff from the left side and pounds the strike zone. So many of the other projected closers have golden arms, but really have struggled with command off and on during their careers, which is why I think St. Clair has the best chance to move the fastest.

 

Unless a team chooses to develop him as a starter, as he does have a good enough repertoire to start, and may even do so next spring at Rice.

 

Shaw doesn't have the upside of potential closers such as Cody Satterwhite (Ole Miss), Ryan Perry (Arizona), Luke Burnett (Louisiana Tech) or even Josh Fields (Georgia, another returning senior like St. Clair), all of whom have electric arms and stuff. However Shaw, like St. Clair, has a better history at the college level throwing strikes and recording outs. He's not going to enter the spring as one of the top rated prospects, but IMO he has a better chance to succeed at the pro level. He kind of reminds me of UNC's Andrew Carignan from the past few years, who I believe is now in the A's organization.

 

The other guys could be fast-tracked if things start to click for them next spring. Fields was arguably the most dominant closer in the nation during his sophomore year at Georgia and the summer that followed on the Cape, but things came a little more difficult for him last spring as his velocity reportedly was down and his slider wasn't as filthy as it was in the past.

 

Aaron Weatherford from Mississippi State is another guy to keep an eye on that won't be ranked particularly high on most top prospect lists to enter the spring but is poised to enjoy a big jump is such rankings as the spring progresses.

 

And yes, you have the FA compensation rules right.

[Pioneers3]

Aaron Weatherford is a beast...good kid will be a first day pick next year! ...the coaches at MSU say he compares to Jonathan Papelbon

[colbyjack]

Thanks Pioneers3. I saw a post on PG's message board not too long ago that Weatherford reportedly was up to 95-97 this past fall during MSU's practices with a pretty good curveball. I'll have to look for that thread, but I seem to recall a pinched nerve was also mentioned, or something like that, which surpressed his velocity last spring. He didn't pitch at all this summer, and is poised for a big year next spring.

 

The Bulldogs could have two incredibly talented bullpen arms next spring, with draft eligible redshirt sophomore Rickey Bowen being the other. While Jonathan Papelbon isn't the greatest comp for either one given Papelbon's size, but MSU certainly has a history producing some impact relievers at the next level (Jeff Brantley, Bobby Thigpen).

 

Although Weatherford and/or Bowen, like Papelbon, could initially be groomed as starters, as both have good enough overall repertoires to succeed in that role as well.

[Pioneers3]

Colby-I should clear up that the MSU coaches were not talking about overall ability, but mental makeup on the mound

[colbyjack]

Gotcha, thanks for clarifying that Pioneers3. Now I like Weatherford even more.

[colbyjack]

The National College Baseball Writers Association has released their 2008 preseason All-American team. A nice list to get you up to speed on the best players with the college game scheduled to start about two months from now.

 

http://www.sportswriters.net/ncbwa/news/2008/allamerica071212.html

[ILuvDaBush]

When is Robert Stock eligible for the draft?

[colbyjack]

2009.

[Boy Jeenius]

Hey Colby. Does Preston "Petey" Paramore grade out as a #1(or sandwich round)? We're acquaintances. I'd love it if he was a Brewer draft choice.

[colbyjack]

Definitely. He went to ASU as a switch-hitter known for his offense (power) more than his defense. He has one of the more patient eyes you can find, as he draws a ton of walks but his swing hasn't fared too well over the summers hitting with wood, particularly last summer for Team USA. However, his defense has improved significantly the past few years. The catching depth is down across the board for next year, which could allow Petey to get drafted fairly early (and with another big spring, it's not that hard to imagine him going early even if it were a good year for catchers).

 

Buster Posey of FSU is probably the only college catcher that is a legitimate first rounder at this point in time.

[TooLiveBrew]

Are defensive evaluations tougher to come by in college, cj? I wonder if there's interest in a 3B candidate. How common is it for a team to trade a few picks to move up in round 1 for baseball?

[colbyjack]

Sabermetric defensive evaluations for college players don't even exist from what I can tell, but Boyd's World would be the place to find them if they did:

 

http://www.boydsworld.com/

 

Minorleaguesplits little brother collegesplits does a nice job breaking down the offensive numbers, and I know they have plans to be more active in their updates this coming season (a couple of friendly and familiar faces run that site):

 

http://www.collegesplits.com/

 

There is no trading of draft picks in MLB.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks, cj - great as always.

[colbyjack]

BA takes its first peak at the 2008 college season:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/features/265382.html

[colbyjack]

Lots of preseason college baseball rankings are out, with BA unveiling their top 25 today. Check out the BA and PGCC homepages for some of the best college coverage available.

 

Aaron Fitt of BA is going to chat college baseball at 1:30 CST today (the chat was scheduled to start a few minutes ago).

 

By the way, BA has UCLA #1, PGCC and Collegiate Baseball both have Arizona at #1 and the NCBWA has Arizona State #1.

 

I'm going to unveil my own top 10 in my Crack of the Bat column later this week. It will not be one of those three teams.

[colbyjack]

BA has kicked off their expanded college baseball preview. Yesterday they covered the East, today they tackle the South.

 

Here's a pic of Kentucky's Scott Green, who could be in the mix for the first round if he continues to build on the success he had last summer on the Cape:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/sgreen08428309.jpg

[fewgoodcards]

he better hope he goes in the first round after turning down a reported $800,000 last year. that's a big chunk of change for a guy that has an injury history to turn down.

[colbyjack]

The college season kicks off this Friday with the institution of the universal start date. There aren't a ton of marquee matchups this early in the season, as the teams from the West typically schedule tougher non-conference foes than teams from the East. Here are some of the bigger matchups to keep an eye on:

 

Arizona @ Georgia

Quite a few publications have Arizona as the preseason #1 team in the nation, with Georgia as a team that is poised to make some noise in the SEC. Arizona is loaded with talent from top to bottom, with talent in their starting rotation, bullpen and starting lineup. Georgia is highlighted by junior SS Gordon Beckham and senior closer Joshua Fields.

 

Rice @ Long Beach State

I have Rice as my #1 team to open the season, as few teams in the nation can match their pitching depth. Long Beach State counters with a pretty solid overall team. I have long admired Long Beach State for scheduling tough opponents early in the season, as they begin their season with three games vs. Rice, a mid-week matchup vs. San Diego next week and a three-game set vs. Wichita State the following weekend.

 

East Carolina @ South Carolina

South Carolina is ranked among the top 5-10 teams in most polls, and should win a lot of games this spring simply by out-scoring their opponents with one of the most lethal lineups in college baseball. East Carolina could surprise some people this year playing in Conference USA, as there should be a lot of runs scored in this series.

 

Arizona State DeMarini Invitational

Arizona State hosts the two-time defending national champion Oregon State Beavers along with Vanderbilt and Miami (OH). Vanderbilt faces Oregon State on Friday, which should have a pair of sophomores, LHP Mike Minor and RHP Jorge Reyes, squaring off.

 

San Diego vs. San Diego State

Team-for-team this isn't a great national matchup, but Friday's game could pit a pair of potential first overall selections for the next two drafts: LHP Brian Matusz vs. RHP Steve Strasburg.

 

And for those looking to catch some baseball on TV, I noticed on my TW Cable schedule that the San Francisco-Hawaii game is scheduled to be on in the wee hours of the morning on Friday/Saturday. I'm not sure if it is a condensed version of the game or what, as the scheduled length of time is 1.5 hours on ESPNU. If that holds, it may be an opportunity to see Hawaii RHP Matt Daly, a shorter, max effort starter with a 90-95 fastball, vs. towering LHP Evan Fredrickson, a transfer from Virginia Tech. However, I should note that I did not see this game scheduled online at TW Cable, so I'm not sure if this will be available or not.

[TooLiveBrew]

Arizona State DeMarini Invitational

Arizona State hosts the two-time defending national champion Oregon State Beavers along with Vanderbilt and Miami (OH). Vanderbilt faces Oregon State on Friday, which should have a pair of sophomores, LHP Mike Minor and RHP Jorge Reyes, squaring off.

 

 

That's a strong grouping of teams. I just hope the FSN affiliate here in OR will have this on. Hopefully I'll remember to check!

[colbyjack]

BA has a picture (and story for subscribers) of Fresno State's Tanner Scheppers on their homepage today:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/tscheppers08428309.jpg

 

Aaron Fitt also chatted about the upcoming college baseball season, which I believe was free to all.

[colbyjack]

Missouri's Aaron Crow in on display on BA's homepage today as they break down the top 50 players by class:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/acrow08428309bm.jpg

[colbyjack]

The college baseball season starts today! BA kicks of the season with their first weekend preview story and a picture of Cole St. Clair, who will be moving to Rice's starting rotation (as I suspected he would). They profile a few things I mentioned earlier this week, including the Rice vs. Long Beach State matchup (whcih can be listened to online for free via LBSU's baseball page) and the Brian Matusz vs. Steve Strasburg showdown.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/college/weekend-preview/2008/265649.html

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/cstclair07428309ck.jpg