Is Miguel Cabrera a better 3B option than Braun? (Split from Marlins thread)

[Mike Felder]

I wonder what kind of package it would take to get him...I know I sure wouldn't mind having him at 3B and Braun in LF.

 

 

(Moderator note: this thread has been split from the "Three remaining Marlins fans must be going nuts" thread. --1992)

[TheBrewer]

"I wonder what kind of package it would take to get him...I know I sure wouldn't mind having him at 3B and Braun in LF."

 

People seriously have issues with moving Braun to LF. Look at how Weeks improved. There's nothing to say that Braun can't improve also. Not to mention.. Melvin and Yost have said numerous times Braun's not moving to the OF. I wish people would just get over it seriously.

 

and FYI... might wana do your homework first.. Cabrera had 23 errors at 3B this season, better than Braun, but only a little..

[logan82]

I seem to remember there being quite a bit of talk about Cabrera making a move to 1st in the near future.

[PeaveyFury]

Melvin and Yost have said numerous times Braun's not moving to the OF.

 

That means very little, really, as Melvin is pretty deceptive fairly often. Last year at this time, Hall was repeatedly mentioned as our left fielder, and the possibility of him in center didn't come up until like January.

[don1481]

I've read articles over the years about how Cabrera's likely to eat his way out of 3B at the rate he's going.

 

I don't know - between him and Braun, I'd rather have Braun. Cheaper for a few more years. Unless, of course, the Brewers could acquire Cabrera to fill that LF void...

[logan82]

I thought they said Hall was going to the outfield for sure and they would prefer to put him in left. They said the transition would be easier since that is the side of the diamond he usually played on. I thought CF was always an option they had in mind if they couldn't get a better CF in trade or as a free agent.

[trwi7]

I've read articles over the years about how Cabrera's likely to eat his way out of 3B at the rate he's going.

 

I don't know - between him and Braun, I'd rather have Braun. Cheaper for a few more years. Unless, of course, the Brewers could acquire Cabrera to fill that LF void...

 

Didn't he have a fit about wanting to move back to 3B after playing in LF?

[Mike Felder]

and FYI... might wana do your homework first.. Cabrera had 23 errors at 3B this season, better than Braun, but only a little..

This is true...however, that's also over a full season. How many errors would Braun have had if he had been up since April?

And I did do my homework...I checked out Baseball Prospectus and used FRAR and FRAA (which I know aren't the greatest fielding metrics in the world, but still way better than using errors). Adjusting for all-time, Cabrera was at 26 FRAR and 5 FRAA this season. Braun was at -6 and -21. That's awful no matter how you slice it.

[TooLiveBrew]

People seriously have issues

 

Well, lucky for us you're here to set us straight http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/eyes.gif

 

and FYI... might wana do your homework first.. Cabrera had 23 errors at 3B this season, better than Braun, but only a little..

 

Well, if you only use E totals to judge defense you'll come to plenty of incorrect conclusions.

[RockCoCougars]

Cabrera looks to be eating himself into a shortened career a la Mo Vaughn. I wouldn't want to give him big money. Unless a light switch goes off, his conditioning will probably only get worse. If he's gaining weight in his mid 20s whats going to happen in 5 years? Future DH most likely. Braun has much more upside.

 

Wouldn't want Willis either for the type of money he will command. He got knocked around pretty good this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

People seriously have issues with moving Braun to LF.

 

People have serious issues with Braun's inability to play 3rd base. Given the fact he has a sub .900 fielding pct. I don't see this as a unreasonable concern.

 

Look at how Weeks improved.

 

There are couple of fatal flaws with this argument.

 

1.) There is no correlation between Weeks and Braun -- They are 2 different players with 2 different skill sets playing 2 different positions.

 

2.) While Weeks perhaps has improved, he is still among the worst 2bs in the NL. Braun could improve in 2008 as well, but the gap between Braun and the NL average is so large, he still would be the worst 3b in the NL. We have to compare our players to the NL average, not themselves.

 

There's nothing to say that Braun can't improve also.

 

Sure there is -- in a large part Braun is 23, and he isn't going to develop skills at this point in his career. Refine them - certainly, but not organically develop them -- This would be like expecting TGJ to develop power, if he eats his wheaties and hits the cages every day. It makes no sense to me to hope that a sub .900 fielder is going to magically become a .965 fielder.

 

Not to mention.. Melvin and Yost have said numerous times Braun's not moving to the OF.

 

Yost has said things like "Aquino fields his position better" and "Math is on our side" -- so you will forgive me for not being real confident in Ned's partnership with lucidity -- as far as DM goes -- ALL GMs say things that are meant to distract/misinform the public. DM is not going to say things that are going to compromise his negotiating position.

 

and FYI... might wana do your homework first.. Cabrera had 23 errors at 3B this season, better than Braun, but only a little..

 

There is a lot more to the homework than errors.

[Invader3K]

I guess the main thing about the talk of possibly moving Braun to LF is that there has been no indication that it is even a remote possibility. If there was even some minor quote like "We could have Braun play LF if we're out of options late in a game", that would be one thing. However, every indication is that the Brewers intend to keep him at 3B permanently. So, ideas of moving him come off as a bit silly.

[endaround]

One thing that really needs to be addressed in how much better did Weeks really get. Yes he cut down his errors but that is only one part of defense.

 

2005 Weeks' RZR was .721 with 35 plays OOZ in 837 innings

2006 Weeks' RZR was .765 with 21 plays OOZ in 794 innings

2007 Weeks' RZR was .785 with 35 plays OOZ in 984 innings

 

Basically it looks like that Weeks has sacrificed range in order to reduce his errors. And even then his RZR only moved up 6 percentage points.

 

Braun in 2007 RZR was .564 with 21 plays OOZ in 945 innings. If Braun follows the same path as Weeks he'll still be the worst defensive 3B in the major leagues.

[Fatter than Joey]

However, every indication is that the Brewers intend to keep him at 3B permanently. So, ideas of moving him come off as a bit silly.

 

Not if the Brewers target a player like Cabrera to play 3rd.

[patrickgpe]

id like to get willis here, but the price i feel is going to be too high. I have no interest in trading Parra, Villanueva, or Gallardo and i am sure any package would atleast include one of those 3.

[don1481]

Not if the Brewers target a player like Cabrera to play 3rd.

 

FTJ, this is one of the few points where I disagree with you: Cabrera's only going to get worse defensively if he continues to pack on the poundage the way he's been doing over the past few seasons. He's definitely on track to pull a Mo Vaughn (or Ruben Quevedo) and eat his way right out of baseball.

 

The one caveat, however, would be if Cabrera backs away from the buffet line and realizes that he needs to be in better shape if he wants to stay at third. IF that were to happen, then yes, a hypothetical Cabrera to third, Braun to LF could happen.

 

Sure there is -- in a large part Braun is 23, and he isn't going to develop skills at this point in his career. Refine them - certainly, but not organically develop them -- This would be like expecting TGJ to develop power, if he eats his wheaties and hits the cages every day. It makes no sense to me to hope that a sub .900 fielder is going to magically become a .965 fielder.

While I'm disagreeing with you, I might as well do a little morehttp://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif Braun was a SS in college, many of his issues that we've seen can be attributed to having to read the ball differently and set up his throws differently from 3B versus SS. I'd say give Braun another season before writing him off as a huge defensive liability. I'd take top-20 defense from Braun (or heck, Weeks) if their offensive production more than offsets the difference.

 

Here's my '08 prediction: Braun becomes a serviceable 3B defensively by the end of the season and Cabrera continues to worsen as he really can't help that second (or fourth) trip to the buffet.

 

I also predict that the Marlins will trade Cabrera but find zero takers for Willis during the offseason.

[homer]

"Sure there is -- in a large part Braun is 23, and he isn't going to develop skills at this point in his career. Refine them - certainly, but not organically develop them -- This would be like expecting TGJ to develop power, if he eats his wheaties and hits the cages every day. It makes no sense to me to hope that a sub .900 fielder is going to magically become a .965 fielder. "

 

I disagree. When it comes to hitting, yes - guys are what they are. But defense can be learned and improved upon for the most part. Aramis Ramirez was a butcher early in his career and raised his fielding percentage about 40 points between age 25 and 26. The question is: Can the Brewers afford to wait on Braun to improve enough where his defense doesn't severely discount his offensive value?

[JJHardy7]

I'm on the side that Braun can improve. He should get at least another year -- unless we bring in a stud 3B, but I'll worry about that when/if it happens.

 

One point I'd like to bring up is what do you think Florida could get for these two? Willis hasn't pitched well and Cabrera is just getting big -- not good at 3B. I also read on espn.com over the summer an article about Cabrera and his weight. They noted in the article that he really enjoys the Miami night life -- which could be another concern.

 

Do you think most teams will offer low? Or is Florida really going to get some stud prospects for either of them?

[Fatter than Joey]

FTJ, this is one of the few points where I disagree with you: Cabrera's only going to get worse defensively if he continues to pack on the poundage the way he's been doing over the past few seasons.

 

This is certainly a possibility -- As it stands in this thread -- Getting Cabrera from the fish would not be a downgrade at 3b defensively (as it stands today). I am not a big advocate of getting Cabrera to play 3rd -- however -- If DM was to think about adding Cabrera's bat, I wouldn't let his play of 3rd base be the reason why we don't acquire him.

 

Aramis Ramirez was a butcher early in his career and raised his fielding percentage about 40 points between age 25 and 26.

 

Ramirez was never the butcher that Braun is. Ramirez was like Sam the Butcher from the Brady Bunch, Braun is like Abdullah the butcher on a weekend retreat at Crystal Lake.

 

I'd say give Braun another season before writing him off as a huge defensive liability.... The question is: Can the Brewers afford to wait on Braun to improve enough where his defense doesn't severely discount his offensive value?

 

I merged Don and Homer's comments...

 

If this was 2003, 2004 -- I'd have no problem seeing what happens with Braun playing 3rd. My concern, is that if we have a small window where we can be a playoff team, w/o losing players to FA -- it seems to me to be less of a gamble to put Braun out in LF. I guess that is where I come down. LF seems like less of a gamble, and I doubt Yost is going to take Braun out of the lineup if he is playing a corner OF position, and run Counsell out there.

[don1481]

If this was 2003, 2004 -- I'd have no problem seeing what happens with Braun playing 3rd. My concern, is that if we have a small window where we can be a playoff team, w/o losing players to FA -- it seems to me to be less of a gamble to put Braun out in LF. I guess that is where I come down. LF seems like less of a gamble, and I doubt Yost is going to take Braun out of the lineup if he is playing a corner OF position, and run Counsell out there.

But if you're acquiring Cabrera for his bat without noting that his fielding has been regressing as he's continued to eat himself out of shape, then aren't you basically setting yourself up to have another butcher at the Hot Corner if you move Braun to Left?

 

My point with acquiring Cabrera and putting him in LF instead of Braun is that unless Cabrera does a serious 180 and steps back from the line at Golden Corral, he could very well be worse defensively at 3B than Braun next year. It might get to the point where Cabrera might be charged with an error for eating the ball - literally.

[homer]

"Ramirez was never the butcher that Braun is."

 

That's not the point. The point is that Ramirez showed marked improvement. He was pretty bad and now is pretty good. Your contention is that this won't happen organically. All we need is for Braun to go from awful to average - heck, I'd take just below average if he hits 40 hrs, and slugs 620 every year.

[Chio151]

Man, I really don't like Cabrera. He seems like a whiney dude that has great ability but doesn't train hard or take anything too serious.

[kgbaseball]

But he's one heck of a player.

[Fatter than Joey]

It might get to the point where Cabrera might be charged with an error for eating the ball - literally.

 

Fair enough.

 

All we need is for Braun to go from awful to average

 

That would require a bigger improvement from Braun.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Not sure if this totally fits into this thread, but there is one option the Brewers can do that will improve their team defensively without having to trade away or sign anybody to come in:

Move Hall to 3rd
Move Braun to LF
Allow Gwynn, Jr., to play in CF against righties (doesn't have to be everyday, Hart can move from Right to Center based on pitching matchups, and allow for a reserve OF platoon player to play in right on days when a Lefty's on the mound against them (Mench, anyone?) Hall would also be an option to move out there if you need to give multiple players days off, and a Counsel could man 3rd in that situation)

Many people on this board despise the thought of Tony Gwynn, Jr. getting consistent playing time, but if the Brewers are serious about improving their team defense and they see that the Free Agent market is too pricey to sign a significant upgrade at either CF or 3rd, why not make this series of moves? Gwynn's far from an offensive asset, but he's an above-average defender, and he brings more of a speed element to the lineup. Hall would be a huge upgrade defensively at 3rd, even if he's just average there. Braun may struggle in left, but it won't be as bad as he is in the infield. This would also enable the organization to put more of a financial emphasis this offseason on pitching, where they could upgrade their rotation by trading for a starter that's got a fairly large contract, or bring in a high risk/really high reward arm like a Prior. If they're at all thinking about resigning Cordero or extending Sheets, I don't see them being able to afford bringing in a CF or 3B free agent option that will make this team markedly better, anyway.