2008 Draft Resource Thread

[colbyjack]

Haley is definitely in the mix for the early rounds, unless as you mentioned his commitment to Rice plays a part on where he's taken. He pitched at the PG National last summer and earned a perfect 10 rating for his tall, projectable frame and his FB that does reach 95 mph. As you noticed, his breaking stuff is inconsistent, but with his loose, live arm and pitching frame which makes it easy to see him getting bigger and stronger over the next few years, he's definitely a pitcher to keep an eye on. He should go in the top 2-4 rounds base on talent.

[fewgoodcards]

i think he would be a steal in the 2-4 range. i was thinking he looked like a sandwich round guy that could sneak into the end of the first with the weak high school pitching crop this year. he reminds me of a chris withrow kind of prospect with a big time fastball, smooth mechanics, and a good idea of what he wants to do on the mound.

 

another guy that was in that report was jake odorizzi who you talked about earlier this year. i remember you saying then he had a chance to go in the top 2 rounds, and he is pitching very well this spring from all reports. how early would the cardinals have to take the local kid to make sure they get him?

[colbyjack]

I keep missing these Collier questions...

 

Too further Gagne's (and mine as well) quest for info on Collier, where do you see/hear of him landing in the draft. Would he still be around at 61?

 

I think 61 is doing to be a little too late to land Collier. The supply/demand for outfielders will likely cause him to be taken in the 30-50 range.

 

i was thinking he looked like a sandwich round guy that could sneak into the end of the first with the weak high school pitching crop this year.

 

The "weak high school pitching crop" is what caught my attention. I agree, it's lacking in arms at the top, but there is a very good handful of guys that could be interchangeable taken in the mid-first to fourth round areas. Guys like Odorizzi, who I have heard is definitely drawing first and sandwich round interest, Daniel Webb, Daniel Marrs, Kyle Lobstein, Brett DeVall, Quinton Miller, Jarret Martin, Taylor Jungmann and several others fit into this conversation. So yes, Haley could fit into that mix as well, but he isn't as polished as any of those guys and hasn't firmed up his breaking ball yet from what I have heard. Still, as you mentioned, you gotta love the nice and stuff combo and how well his arm works.

 

How early would the Cardinals have to take him to make sure they got him? That's a tough question to answer, but I'm guessing that you would have to take him by your 2nd rounder if he's still there if you really want him. There's a chance he's there in the 3rd, but I doubt he drops to your 4th, again, as long as there aren't any monetary issues involved.

[fewgoodcards]

sorry, i meant how early they would have to odorizzi, but you pretty much answered that earlier. it sounds like its possible they would have to take him at 13 b/c he might not last to 39. i think that is a little too high, so it looks like the cardinals might miss out on another great local talent.

 

as for the weak high school pitching class, i was mostly talking at the top. you are right that there are a lot of interchangeable guys in the sandwich to 4th round area that have some talent, but right now i don't think there is one high school pitcher worthy of going in the top 10 picks and i think it is possible only 1 or 2 go in the first 20 picks. i think it resembles the 2005 draft in that regard where the first high school pitcher didn't go until 16 and there were only 3 taken in the first round, but there were some very good high school pitchers taken from the sandwich round through the 4th or 5th round.

[lonestar]

I would love to see the Brewers take Tyler Ladendorf from Howard College with one of the supplement picks! I think he will end up at Second! This kid keeps his nose clean and works like he did over the last two years, he will play in the big leagues.

I would love to hear CJ's (or anyone else's) take on Ladendorf.

[colbyjack]

Ladendorf is an exciting talent and is one of those players that some draft followers may be surprised to see just how high he's taken. He has a good bat and great wheels with game changing speed, and proved he could hit with a wood bat last summer in the Texas League. This spring his power has really developed, which has put him squarely in the mix for the sandwich round, or possibly higher depending on how much a team likes the guy.

 

The end of the DFE process has made following the juco ranks a lot more interesting knowing that all of these players are available to anyone, which increased the talent pool scouts have to cover significantly. It does create some questions, since it's hard to gauge a juco player vs. a college player since they're not playing against the same competition, but the tools are always on display, and Ladendorf certainly has enough tools to get anyone excited.

 

Lonnie Chisenhall is also a top juco prospect that could sneak into the end of the first round. He has some character issues after getting booted from the South Carolina team a year ago after being charged with burglary (both he and former teammate Nick Fuller, who is now at Walters State, were booted from the team). Chisenhall is similar to Mat Gamel as he has good eye and a line drive bat with some power potential as a left-handed hitter, and profiles to player either third base or right field with a very strong arm.

[lonestar]

Whither Jamie Mallard?

[colbyjack]

PGCC's top 10 list today focuses on the talent in the state of California, with a few names rising quickly up draft boards listed here, with one player I had not heard was moving up so quickly before, prep lefty Matt Montgomery.

 

Player Projected Pick

1 Brian Matusz 2-4

2 Kyle Skipworth 6-10

3 Tanner Scheppers 8-12

4 Aaron Hicks 12-18

5 Jason Castro 18-30

6 Zach Collier 18-30

7 Tyson Ross 25-30

8 David Cooper 25-30

9 Brett Hunter 15-45

10 Matt Montgomery 25-35

 

Sorry, I'm not good copying & pasting tables. There was a note with Hunter that his draft stock could vary given his injury situation.

[lonestar]

I'm surprised Thames and Galloway didn't make the list. Seems like the first round is going to have more than 30 players in it. Or there will be some good picks in the supplemental and second rounds.

I like Cooper. His numbers are virtually identical to Wallace's and he plays in a much tougher environment.

[colbyjack]

BA chimes in today with their first draft tracker of the season:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-dish/2008/266044.html

[Never Outhustled]

Colby, I see BA has Casey Kelly is all the way up to #20. The Brewers love bloodlines, does he have a true impact bat? Some think he won't stay at SS, is it just because he so tall, or does he not have the range or athletism? Signability could be an issue, any word on whether his future is in baseball or football? Would # 16 make his decision for him? Is this kid the worker his dad was? A few years ago, the Brewers were very interested in another late rising tall SS, Brandon Wood. How does Kelly compare, or contrast, to Wood? I guess thats enough questions for you for awhile. Thanks in advance. Boy would I love grabbing at #16 an impact bat at SS, if this kid is either of those things.

[colbyjack]

I think Kelly has an impact bat. He is just such a great natural athlete that I could see him succeeding as a hitter, pitcher, fielder, quarterback, or whatever path he should choose to follow.

 

And if he's in the mix for the 15-25 range, I think he'll stick with baseball, unless a team is willing to let him do the 2-sport thing (which I wouldn't). I'm a little mixed on whether or not he'll be able to stick at SS based on what I've read, heard and seen, but there's no reason to move him now. I think Brandon Wood is a very strong comparison, but I think at similar points in their careers Kelly has more strength, although Wood's size and strength did blossom a little later (which is why he rose so quickly the year he was drafted).

 

I do think Kelly makes a lot of sense for the Brewers for the reasons you stated. I'm starting to feel as though the Brewers will be in a very good position at #16 with guys such as Hunter, Fields, Gray, Gillaspie and others all in the mix for the team's first pick.

[colbyjack]

This story, courtesy of my PGCC associate David Rawnsley, is a must-read. He adds some insight on the draft in general, with some thoughts on Casey Kelly, the depth of 1B (with a compliment paid to Jack Z. and the Brewers) and the college closer crop. Oh yeah, and it's free for all to enjoy:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/columnists/davidrawnsley/2008/draft/one_month_out.aspx

[Never Outhustled]

Thanks Colby, that Rawnsley column is definately an excellent read. Tons of info. Casey Kelly, in saying that he'll play football if a team forces him to pitch, is basically telling us he'll sign and play baseball if drafted as a SS.

You are going to have to get in Rawnsley's ear though. He listed a group of college relievers, but left out your guy, Weatherford. Weatherford may be having the best season of them all, considering that scrub Fields gave up a run already http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[colbyjack]

My first of three (with a possibility for more) player spotlight interviews is up at PGCC, with the first featuring prep RHP Daniel Marrs of Virginia. Marrs, similar to my second interview target, prep LHP Jarret Martin of California, hasn't fared as well this spring after entering the year with big expectations as far as the draft is concerned. If I had to guess right, I would say there's a good chance both end up at college (Wake Forest and Cal State Fullerton respectively), although Martin is starting to draw more interest from scouts as a hitter (he recently broke his conference's record with his 17th home run on the year, although many still consider him a pitcher at the next level).

 

The third interview will feature Brett Wallace, who is a mid-first-rounder come June.

 

Enjoy:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/columnists/patrickebert/2008/draft/playerspotlight_dmarrs.aspx

[GagneCY03]

Good read, CJ. I'm really looking forward to the Martin interview, since he's a guy I've been following this spring.

[colbyjack]

If you don't have a subscription to PG Crosschecker yet, this link is reason enough to get one: An updated ranking of the top 100 draft-eligible prospects. I know Allan Simpson and David Rawnsley have been working the phones hard the past month+, so you get a pretty good idea of where players stand right now in the eyes of scouts. Of course there are always exceptions, but subscribers will get an idea just how quickly guys like Andrew Cashner, Brett Lawrie, Ross Seaton, Mike Montomgery and Anthony Hewitt are rising while also seeing how far Gerrit Cole, Tim Melville, Sonny Gray, Kyle Lobstein and Harold Martinez have fallen.

 

And that's enough reason to keep draft day in perspective.

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/top_prospects/top100/top100_5808.aspx

[DAS1410]

Colby,

 

Any reasoning as to why Lobstein has fallen? ... I have heard or seen reasons on the others, but no mention about Lobstein until now.

[colbyjack]

I've heard that Lobstein's situation may be similar to Jarret Martin's, in that he hasn't been nearly as sharp as he was last summer. Lobstein sounds as though he's still in the mix for the top 2-3 rounds, but the consistency hasn't been there for him to be a first-round pick. With so many players having big springs and quickly moving up draft boards, the ones that haven't been as impressive are bound to fall.

[colbyjack]

Here's my latest guess at how the top 15 picks will shake out come draft day:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/crackthebat/patrick_ebert/2008/costanddemand.aspx

[lonestar]

I read you Crack of the Bat column with a great deal of interest - especially your pick for the Minnesota Twins at #14.

 

To me there's a near consensus on the top 13 -- maybe that's from reading so much of your stuff. My hope is that a wild card will crash the top 13 and some obvious value becomes available. I would pass on Hunt, Friedrich, and Skipworth -- and Hosmer if Boras is problematical.

 

There's no consensus at 14. But I didn't even see Casey Kelly coming.

 

I don't agree that the Twins have a glut of OF's. They do have a glut of CF's.

 

The Twins tend to draft or otherwise obtain a guy and earmark him as a successor. When Denard Span or Matt Moses crap out, they seem surprised and repeat the cycle or cash in their Cy Young award winner. They need a successor at SS and they will also need one for Cuddyer in RF.

 

This regime (and it really hasn't changed) has drafted college position players in the first round -- Chuck Knoblauch, Travis Lee and Todd Walker come to mind. Admittely it's been a while.

 

Unlike last year, the organization should have plenty of $$$ this year with the Santana savings. The Twins didn't skrimp in 2004.

 

I disagree with you about the Twins scouting and player development. Before Scott Baker, the last draft pick they had that made 34 starts was Mark Redman (1st round in 1995). The last high school picks were Brad Radke and LaTroy Hawkins (7th and 8th round in 1991). Only 3 draftees since 1999 have gotten 600 AB's: Morneau, Kubel, and Mauer.

 

Having vented, I want to say Kelly makes sense from a Twins perspective. And the whole article is well done.

[lonestar]

What are your thoughts on Jamie Mallard? Where does he rank?

 

Where does Wesley Freeman rank? Do you know what his plate discipline and pitch recognition is like?

 

Do you know what Zach Collier's and Isaac Galloway's plate discipline and pitch recognition is like? [The Twins drafted Henry (Hank) Sanchez out of San Diego with a supplemental first round pick only to discover he was helpless against breaking balls.] Do you know why Galloway is not in PGCC's top 50?

 

[Whither means to what place, result, or condition.]

[DAS1410]

Colby,

 

That is an interesting list ..... I personally have the Dodgers looking at either Hicks or Melville at #15. Never even had Odorizzi in the picture. I will have to find out some more info on him.

 

While on the subject of an Illinois prepster ..... anything you can tell me about LHP Austin Wright? What round does he project to go in?

[colbyjack]

Jamie Mallard is an interesting guy. Very big with equally big power potential, but he's very, very raw. He could be Mo Vaughn, he coudl be Roberto Petagine or he could be Henry Sanchez...Sanchez isn't as good of a comp, but I figured you'd like that as a Twins fan http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

I know the PG staff was in love with Freeman after the Aflac game given his exciting 5-tool set. To be honest I haven't heard anything about him this spring concerning how he's doing, but the tools are there, as there aren't many guys with his size that can hit for power and run like a deer. From the limited footage I've seen of him, I don't recall his plate discipline really standing out good or bad.

 

Collier's ability to hit is why he is on the rise. He has great bad speed and a great approach. I can't tell you how he fares against curveballs, but some hitters' best abilities at the plate have to do with laying off the CB and waiting for a FB if that's what you hit. That's simply a matter of adjustments.

 

I really like Galloway's approach to the game, and really like how well he did at the Aflac game last summer despite having a bum ankle (I think it was his ankle). Galloway was once considered the top prep prospect eligible for the '08 draft, but hasn't been on that level since around this time a year ago. Again, I can't state specifically why he has fallen, because the talent and skills are there. It could very well be that he maxed out early.

 

And I know what whither means, I was just giving you trouble because you use that word a lot http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

Melville seems to be falling, and if he falls out of the first or sandwich round I think he's UNC bound. I'm not sure if his PG ranking his accurate, as I've heard his velocity has returned to the low-to-mid-90s, where it was last summer.

 

I haven't heard how Austin Wright is faring this spring, but I really liked watching him pitch last summer. He looked a lot bigger than his listed height/weight, and his fastball looked to be thrown a lot harder than the low-90s radar gun readings.

 

Just so you know, I had Odorizzi go to the Dodgers because he definitely fits their profile. Nice, loose athletic frame with an equally loose, free and easy arm. 90-95 FB with good movement, both a SL and CB, both with very good biting action. This young man could be throwing 95-97 within a year given how easily everything works for him. I kind of predicted his rise in February, and I still think he could be the surprise of the draft.

 

Actually both Odorizzi and Casey Kelly were two of the picks I felt made the most sense on so many different levels, which of course means they're less likely to actually happen...

[GagneCY03]

Hey CJ, I was surprised to see you have the Dodgers taking Odorizzi over Melville. Is there a connection between LA and Odorizzi?

 

Also, what info do you have on Ross Seaton (stuff, any teams looking at him, etc). Thanks.