2008 Draft Resource Thread

[GagneCY03]

Found the video of the 2007 Cape Cod HS Classic on MLB.com. Saw Martin pitch. Definitely looks like a Logan White type pitcher. Easy, compact delivery. Good size with some projection in his frame. His release point was erratic early though. Struck out the first batter he faced but the batter reached on a WP. Walked 3 batters and allowed 3 runs. But finally calmed down to strike out the final batter he faced. Only two balls put in play:: one was an oppo field sac fly and the other was a weak grounder to second on his curve. I could see him sitting 92-94 in a few years.

[colbyjack]

Both BA and PGCC have focused on the smaller college and JC prospects over the past week, as we're not really sure what to expect with JC talent now that the DFE process has been eliminated.

 

Anyway, I bring this up so I can share a picture of Scott Pickler, the Head Coach at Cypress JC, with clancy, by far Pickler's biggest supporter over the years:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/spickler08428309kb.jpg

[colbyjack]

Due to popular demand, in my column this week I kind of predict the top 10 picks of the 2008 draft:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/crackthebat/patrick_ebert/08_02_07_alonglookahead/

 

Minus the commentary trying to shed light onto each team's drafting philosophies, history, etc., here's how I shake them down (with plenty of disclaimers about how early it is and how mock drafts are worthless to begin with http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif):

 

1. Rays: Pedro Alvarez

2. Pirates: Tim Beckham

3. Royals: Aaron Crow

4. Orioles: Brian Matusz

5. Giants: Gerrit Cole

6. Marlins: Kyle Skipworth

7. Reds: Brett Hunter

8. White Sox: Justin Smoak

9. Nationals: Eric Hosmer

10. Astros: Harold Martinez

[fewgoodcards]

colby, the cardinals aren't too much further down the list at #13. who are some guys you think they could be looking at this spring? tim melville seems like a natural fit as he plays his high school ball about a half hour away from busch stadium, but a guy like christian friedrich also seems like a logical choice. harold martinez is my personal favorite, but i don't think he will last.

[colbyjack]

The Cards have alternated between high school bats and college arms the past five years or so, and they're due for a college pitcher (that doesn't mean they're going to take one, but I use recent history to determine drafting tendencies). And that works well as there should be some good players of value when the Cardinals pick.

 

Recent history also tells us they like college pitchers with big-time arm strength (Lambert, Ottavino, Mortensen), and will overlook the overall repertoire and command of these pitchers, even if they profile better in the bullpen.

 

That has to make Ryan Perry a legit candidate. Scott Green of Kentucky and Tanner Scheppers of Fresno State also come to mind. Although there could be some pretty good college arms that don't have as quite of high of a ceiling at that spot, such as Friedrich as you mentioned and including Cole St. Clair, Jacob Thompson and Tyson Ross.

 

Melville would be a good fit as well, and a player of exceptional value at the 13th spot. Do the Cardinals have much of a history dealing with Boras? The two guys I have heard associated with Boras so far are Melville and Hosmer, and there are sure to be more.

 

Based on pure need, the Cards certainly could use a legit bat, as they seem to be lacking in that area past Rasmus. I could see Martinez being a legit target should he find a way to fall this far.

[GagneCY03]

Nice work (as usual) CJ. Of course, you'd have the Dodgers taking Jarret Martin if you went to #15...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[fewgoodcards]

thanks colby. i hope they back away from the raw college pitcher model with that high of a pick. i can understand later in the first round when there aren't any guys that are real sure bets and you should go for upside, but at 13 you should be able to get a guy that has some polish and some stuff.

 

as for boras, they haven't signed any big money guys since ankiel, drew, and hutchinson, but they have signed tyler greene, mark mccormick, mark hamilton, and gary daley in recent years so they have dealt with him. i just think they have taken such a beating by the press and the fans here in st. louis over the last year about porcello that they couldn't pass on a hometown kid with that kind of talent just b/c of money.

 

i would love to get martinez, he is probably my favorite player for that spot, but i don't see any way he falls that far without a bad spring or rediculous bonus demands.

[colbyjack]

Five pitchers touched 90 at day one of the PG Indoor Showcase in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

 

Jake Orodizzi (Highland, IL) showed the best arm of all, with an extremely loose and live-armed delivery with a projectable frame. He sat in the 90-92 range and hit 93 on two pitches that I saw. He froze hitters with a low-80s slider and mid-70s curve. Great arm, great breaking stuff, and impressive command of all of his pitches. Don't be surprised to see him taken in the first round in June.

 

Chase Hentges from Shakopee, MN is a true sleeper. He threw effortlessly in the 88-92 range with a very good curveball. While his velocity has increased significantly over the past year, it is his fastball movement that is his most impressive movement. He's a tall and lanky kid with very good projection, meaning the best is yet to come.

 

Tony Zych (Monee, IL) had good velocity as well, sitting in the 90-91 range his first time through touching 92 once or twice. His second "inning" up he was in the 86-90 range, but his fastball still showed plenty of hop. His curveball was consistently sharp and consistently in the 74-76 range. I saw him last year at the same event and he was essentially the same pitcher. He's a good hitter as well.

 

Jacob Turner (St. Charles, MO) hit exactly 90 mph too many times to count. He touched as high as 91, and didn't slip below 88. One scout mentioned that he had the best pure arm action and overall looseness of anyone in attendance (of which I disagreed, feeling Ordorizzi was clearly the best pitching prospect from top to bottom in attendance). Good FB command, a pretty good curve in the 74-76 range and a sweeping slider in the 79-81 range.

 

Phil Schrieber (Kaukana, WI) is the fifth pitcher to touch 90. I profiled his efforts in the Wisconsin related draft thread.

 

Madison Boer of Eden Prairie, MN just missed 90, but sat in the 86-89 range during his performance. Another loose, live arm, and Boer is an incredibly gift athlete, despite his imposing size, a scout told me he is a very talented defensive shortstop. He also threw an impressive 73-75 sharp-breaking curve.

 

BJ Hermsen and Kyle Stroup should easily make it seven tomorrow.

 

The talent overall wasn't the same as last year's, when Cody Scarpetta, Casey Crosby, Jon Gilmore and Jake Smolinski all were in attendance, among several other notable players, but at the same time, none of those guys had as live as an arm as Odorizzi and none of them showed a curve as consistently as Schrieber.

[fewgoodcards]

if orodizzi had a more lively arm than casey crosby that is pretty impressive

[colbyjack]

I want to expand on what I meant by live arm. That doesn't necessarily just talk about one's ability to throw hard. To me, the live arm reference has more to do with their arm action. Crosby's velocity was the sum of the parts so to speak, generating velocity thanks to a tall and long pitching frame in which he was able to generate velocity from the bottom up. Odorizzi has nice long limbs, but his arm speed is incredibly quick. He has a whip-like delivery that you hear about with pitchers such as Jarrod Parker and Scott Kazmir, almost seeming to indicate that such a person physically has no business throwing as hard as they do. When it warms up I expect Odorizzi to be in the 93-96 range if not better.

 

Crosby you could see why he could throw as hard as he did. He was a big, athletic kid. Odorizzi is listed at 6'2", but having stood right next to him and his father this weekend I would guess he's closer to 6'.

 

I saw B.J. Hermsen yesterday, but he was pitching at 84-86 since he hasn't pitched much over the winter after breaking his left collarbone playing football while also focusing on basketball the past few months. We were told coming in that we would be lucky to see 88, and definitely not to expect 90. Most impressive about him is how huge he is to go along with his ability to place his fastball exactly where the target is set up.

[colbyjack]

BA's early draft preview was released this morning, with subscribers stories covering the top 100 high school and college players, breaking down the best tools by class while also profiling Alex Meyer of Indiana (prep) and Josh Fields from Georgia (college).

 

Here's a pic of Meyer:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/ameyer08428309js.jpg

[colbyjack]

Jim Callis has noted in today's chat that in addition to Eric Hosmer, Pedro Alvarez, Gerrit Cole and Joshua Fields are going to be advised by Boras. That doesn't mean there won't be more, those are just the ones he has heard of.

 

I'm guessing that means that Tim Melville, who I had previously heard was to be advised by Boras, will not be, since I don't think Callis would have missed a player that well known and who is currently BA's #1 prep pitching prospect.

[fewgoodcards]

since you mentioned tanner scheppers i have been checking him out more since i had never heard of him before, and i really think you might be on to something with him and the cardinals. he seems to fit their profile perfectly. he is a 6'4" 200 pounder with a 92-95 mph fastball and looks like he still has projection. i'm getting tired of the raw upside college pitchers, but this guy definitely has some potential. jim callis today ranked him the #22 prospect in the draft and said he could be the third college pitcher taken if he pitches this spring like he did in fall ball. how would you compare him with former bulldog matt garza? i hate to compare guys based on what school they went to, but these two seem very similar. they have identical size, seems like similar stuff, and their sophomore seasons were pretty similar as well.

[colbyjack]

I commented on Scheppers in my Crack of the Bat column two weeks ago over on PG Crosschecker:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/crackthebat/patrick%5Febert/08%5F02%5F01%5Fcollege6n6/

 

Tanner Scheppers was a name that several readers brought to my attention via email a few weeks ago when I asked people to add who they felt were college baseball's most prominent sleepers. I personally didn't include Scheppers, who touched the upper 90s in fall ball, because he's not going to surprise anyone, and may very well follow in the footsteps of former Bulldogs ace Matt Garza.

 

The comparison to Garza to two-fold: One, he could easily creep into the first round (and that clearly would not be a surprise anymore), and he has the same kind of great, natural arm strength. They both throw their fastballs so easily, to go along with a pretty solid breaking ball, that it's not hard to scouts to project bigger and better things for Scheppers at the next level.

[fewgoodcards]

thanks colby, i somehow missed that column, but i try to read all of them http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[colbyjack]

With Livan Hernandez signing with the Twins, only two remaining free agents can effect the draft pick compensation system: Mike Piazza and Shannon Stewart. I believe at one point in time it was believed that Piazza would either play in Japan or retire, and I haven't heard a peep about Stewart.

[colbyjack]

A picture of California prep OF/RHP Aaron Hicks, who I recently projected as the Brewers first-round pick, graces BA's homepage today:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/ahicks08428309js.jpg

 

And onto BA's first high school poll of the year:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/high-school/team-rankings/2008/265628.html

[TooLiveBrew]

Did you photoshop in that hat, cj? Or do they really use the M & barley logo at a high school?

[colbyjack]

Nope, that's not a Photoshop job, that's a picture of Hicks participating in the Area Code Games last summer. The two California teams are hosted/coached by the Brewers scouting staff, and the two teams are called Brewers Blue and Brewers Grey.

 

It's always fun to see some of the more talented California kids wearing the Brewers garb. Last year I remember a popular picture that BA used of Josh Vitters (the 3rd overall pick of the Cubs) wearing the Brewers hat.

[TooLiveBrew]

The two California teams are hosted/coached by the Brewers scouting staff, and the two teams are called Brewers Blue and Brewers Grey.

Thanks - agreed that it looks pretty cool.

[GagneCY03]

CJ, any idea when PGCC will update their Who's Hot feature?

[colbyjack]

I haven't heard as to when the Who's Hot feature will be started again.

 

A couple of notes:

 

Shannon Stewart signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays, meaning he will not effect free agent compensation unless he makes the big-league team out of camp, and even that doesn't seem to be certain.

 

Mike Piazza is now the only player that will effect free agent compensation.

 

Jim Callis reported a week or two ago that compensatory picks for unsigned players will occur after the overall pick round-by-round, and not by the overall selections, something I thought was how the compensatory system was supposed to happen when the rule changes were made over a year ago. This means that the Braves will receive the pick right after the 5th overall pick in the second round and not the pick right after the 69th overall pick for unsigned 2nd rounder Joshua Fields. That means the Braves compensatory selection for Fields will come just before the Brewers compensatory selections for Cordero and Linebrink from the Reds and White Sox respectively.

[colbyjack]

I've pimped Aaron Hicks a few times on this forum, and BA correspondent Dave Perkin has an excellent write-up on him from a recent performance (the content is free for all, so I've also included the text below). It's hard not to get excited thinking about what this young man could do at the next level.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=252

 

Aaron Hicks is an OK player . . . if you like talent.

 

Hicks, who is a safe bet to be a first round selection in the June draft, started Thursday for top-ranked Long Beach Wilson High, and pitched five innings, striking out nine and allowing one run on three hits. His four-seam fastball sat in the 93-95 mph range, peaking at 96. A righthander, Hicks possesses a plus 82-84 curve, which is a nasty 11-to-5 multi-plane monster. He compounds a hitter's misery with a hard cutter and a change which shows sharp late arm side movement.

 

In the fifth inning, El Dorado third baseman Ryan Remlinger engaged Hicks in an epic at bat. Hicks fired every pitch in his arsenal, and Remlinger kept fouling them off. Remlinger then hit a 3-2 pitch 400 feet, foul by a sliver. After the game, I asked Hicks what he was thinking at the time. "I just wanted to strike him out," said Hicks. He then did so with a 96 mph fastball.

 

To insure that the approximately 25 scouts in attendance got an eyeful, the switch-hitting Hicks had a big day at bat as well. In his first at-bat, Hicks ripped a single to right, then stole second, stole third and scored on Zack Wilson's single. On his second trip to the plate, Hicks smacked a double off the base of the center-field fence, advanced to third on a short fly to right, but was stranded.

 

In his third plate appearance, Hicks doubled to the fence in left center. The El Dorado coaching staff decided that discretion is the better part of valor and walked Hicks intentionally in his fourth time up.

 

"Geez", remarked one spectator, "this is Little League for him".

 

The performance reestablished what many scouts have long contended: Hicks is the finest prep outfielder/pitcher to come out of the greater Los Angeles area since Daryl Strawberry in the early 1980s. He is that rare player with five potential above-average tools, and Hicks has the ability to be a major league all-star as an outfielder or a pitcher.

 

Hicks still has a few mechanical glitches. On the mound, his far right (toward third base) rubber position is causing him to throw across his body on many pitches. Also, Hicks often loses his balance at his delivery finish by landing on a stiff front leg and falling off to his left, causing several pitches to sail. As with many high school pitching prospects, Hicks has inconsistent command and his pitch counts are too high.

 

At bat, Hicks has lowered his hands into a more workable pre-swing position, but he still has a tendency to pull his front side and head off the ball and overstride.

 

None of these flaws are fatal and should be easily corrected when Hicks reaches pro ball. Opinions vary, but the consensus among scouts is that the club which signs Hicks will start him in pro ball as an outfielder. If he doesn't hit after three or so years in the minors, then Hicks should comfortably transition to the bump -most likely as a set-up man or closer. However, Hicks 'great arm, 6.6 speed and vastly improved bat indicate that his days as a hurler will probably end when he signs his first pro contract.

[colbyjack]

PG Crosschecker is offering a free preview to the scouting reports of the top 10 players on their top 500 prospect list:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/top_prospects/top_500_31008/top_500_preview.aspx

[fewgoodcards]

colby, do you know when pgcrosschecker is going to update the who's hot list? they started it up long before now last year.