2008 Draft Resource Thread

[colbyjack]

It's time to kick off Brewerfan.net's 2008 Draft Coverage. First and foremost, here is a link to review Brewerfan.net's top 30 draft-eligible prospects for 2008:

 

Brewerfan.net Top 30 2008 Draft Prospects

 

This thread will start providing the basics for next year's draft, providing the raw draft order and eventually updating the order as free agents are signed. We will provide the list of free agents and remove the free agents name by name as they are signed or if they aren't offered arbitration (making them ineligible for draft-pick compensation).

 

Sadly, the DFE process is long gone.

 

Recent 2008 Discussion and Stories:

Feature: 2007 Draft Recap, Early 2008 Preview

PGCC Crack of the Bat: 2008 Early Draft Preview

Discussion: Early 2008 Preview

Discussion: 2007 Summer Talent

Discussion: 2008 Draft Standings

Discussion: 2007 College Baseball Resource Thread (some observations on '08 draft eligibles)

 

2007 Draft Resource:

2007 Draft Resource Thread

2007 Official Draft Pick Selection/Signing Thread

Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 6-20

Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 21-50

2006-07 DFE Resource Thread

 

2008 Raw Draft Order

The raw order is established by taking the reverse order of the standings from the previous seasons. The order does not alternate between leagues anymore. Tie-breakers are awarded to the team that finished with the worse record the previous season.

 

1. Devil Rays (.407)

2. Pirates (.420)

3 Royals (.426)

4. Orioles (.426)

5. Giants (.438)

6. Marlins (.438)

7. Reds (.444)

8. White Sox (.444)

9. Nationals (.451)

10. Astros (.451)

11. Rangers (.463)

12. Athletics (.469)

13. Cardinals (.481)

14. Twins (.488)

15. Dodgers (.506)

16. Brewers (.512)

17. Blue Jays (.512)

18. Braves (.519)

19. Cubs (.525)

20. Mariners (.543)

21. Tigers (.543)

22. Mets (.543)

23. Padres (.546)

24. Phillies (.549)

25. Rockies (.552)

26. Diamondbacks (.556)

27. Angels (.580)

28. Yankees (.580)

29. Indians (.593)

30. Red Sox (.593)

[colbyjack]

2007-08 Free Agents

 

The rankings as designated by the Elias Sports Bureau of course determine the fate of so many free agents. Here are the complete lists of players (all players listed, not just free agents) and how they are ranked by league:

 

American League Rankings

National League Rankings

 

Type C free agents no longer garner any compensation. Type A free agents represent the top 20% of players at their position category, while Type B free agents represent the top 21-40% of players at their position category. Type A's prior to this offseason used to be the top 30%, Type B's used to be the top 31-50%.

 

Below I will break the list down by the free agents, subtracting names as we find out which ones aren't offered arbitration, and also subtracting them (or crossing them out) as they are signed, noting the compensation as the offseason moves along. The two most important names of note for Brewers fans:

 

Francisco Cordero 83.657 A

Scott Linebrink 72.834 A

 

If I made any errors please let me know, as I came up with this list by comparing the Elias ranking list with the projected free agent list.

 

Type A Free Agents

 

Francisco Cordero 83.657 A

Brewers receive the Reds second-round draft pick and a supplemental first-rounder.

Aaron Rowand 80.449 A

Phillies receive the Giants second-round draft pick and a supplemental first-rounder.

Tom Glavine 79.327 A

Mets receive the Braves first-round draft pick and a supplemental first-rounder.

Torii Hunter 77.215 A

Twins receive the Angels first-round draft pick and a supplemental first-rounder.

Scott Linebrink 72.834 A

Brewers receive the White Sox second-round draft pick and a supplemental first-rounders.

 

Type B Free Agents

 

Luis Vizcaino 70.201 B

Yankees receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Jason Kendall 68.919 B

Cubs receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Livan Hernandez 68.189 B

Diamondbacks receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Mike Cameron 66.742 B

Padres receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Mike Piazza 65.126 B

Trever Miller 63.768 B

Astros receive a supplemental first-round pick.

David Riske 62.425 B

Royals receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Eric Gagne 62.248 B

Red Sox receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Pedro Feliz 61.714 B

Giants receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Ron Mahay 61.363 B

Braves receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Troy Percival 60.993 B

Cardinals receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Doug Brocail 60.469 B

Padres receive a supplemental first-round pick.

Shannon Stewart 60.253 B

A's receive a supplemental first-round pick if Stewart makes the Blue Jays 25-man roster out of spring training.

[colbyjack]

BA released their college commitment list for the top 100 draft eligible high school players yesterday. Subscriber content, but this is always a good, early look to determine what players might be more unsignable than others (nice notes from Alan Matthews about this as well):

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/college/news/265177.html

 

Speaking of Alan Matthews, he also noted in one of his stories covering the WWBA Jupiter tourney that Eric Hosmer has retained Scott Boras to be his advisor.

[colbyjack]

PGCrosschecker is currently through the top 275 prospects for the 2008 draft (eventually going up to 500), full with scouting reports. You know this is subscriber-based content, and simply unprecedented for this time of year:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/

 

They also have a pretty extensive list of college commitments, not by ranking, but by last name, free for all to take a gander at:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/hsprospects/2008/college_commitments_08class.aspx?gyear=2008

[colbyjack]

I tried to peak around this evening to see what teams were planning on doing with their Type A and Type B free agents with the arbitration deadline approaching (11:59 PM EST, Saturday night). I deleted a few names off the list in the process (Andruw Jones being the most notable), but wasn't able to scratch a few off that aren't likely to be offered arby, such as Barry Bonds and Milton Bradley.

 

The Type B FAs are almost as equally important, as they will determine just how long the Brewers have to wait until they can make selections for their early second round picks acquired from the Reds and White Sox respectively for Cordero and Linebrink.

[PeaveyFury]

The Pads did decline to offer arby to Milton Bradley, I removed him from the list.

 

And we also bid farewell to David Eckstein, Shawn Green, Paul Lo Duca, Luis Gonzalez, Jorge Julio, Jose Guillen, and some guy named Bonds.

[PeaveyFury]

Best wishes to Tony Graffanino, who wasn't offered arby by the Brewers last night.

[RyDogg66]

Timlin resigned with the Sox, I guess he can be taken off the list.

[colbyjack]

Peavey, thanks for updating the list. I was peeking around last night and deleted a couple of names, but didn't want to take the names off of the list until the moves were official.

 

Such as Timlin, who reportedly has re-signed with the Red Sox, but until I see that move listed on the Red Sox official site I'm going to leave his name where it is.

 

Right now there are 23 players that could effect free agent compensation, and that likely will go down when some of these players, such as Timlin, re-sign with their 2007 clubs. Andy Pettitte also is unlikely to effect the compensation process, as it is beleived that he will either re-sign with the Yankees or retire.

 

Assuming Timlin and Pettitte don't count towards the compensation process but the rest do, here is what the sandwich round would look like (keep in mind that last year the sandwich round went 34 picks deep):

 

31. Twins (Hunter)

32. Brewers (Cordero)

33. Mets (Glavine)

34. Phillies (Rowand)

35. Brewers (Linebrink)

36. Royals (Riske)

37. Giants (Feliz)

38. Astros (Miller)

39. Athletics (Piazza)

40. Cardinals (Percival)

41. Braves (Mahay)

42. Cubs (Kendall)

43. Padres (Cameron)

44. Diamonbacks (Hernandez)

45. Yankees (Vizcaino)

46. Red Sox (Gagne)

47. Athletics (Stewart)

48. Brocail (Padres)

 

The Brewers second round picks stand to be no worse than #58 (Reds), #59 (White Sox) and #67 (their own) as the Braves get a compensatory pick just ahead of their comp picks for Cordero and Linebrink as the Braves were unable to sign 2nd rounder Josh Fields from last June's draft. Here's what the Brewers projected picks in the top two rounds cost at slot value (approximate) last year:

 

#16: $1.5M

#32: $900K

#35: $800K

#55: $570K

#56: $560K

#64: $515K

 

That's $4.845M required for those picks as is. A few people have mentioned that they hope the team takes a chance on someone that falls. I don't see that at all, as I think it's more likely they reach for a player that will sign for a little less money than slot. EDIT: Shawn Green not offered arby, which I see Peavey already caught above. I adjusted the numbers to show this.

[PeaveyFury]

Pettitte re-signs with NY:

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7521090

[brewerfan82]

31. Twins (Hunter)

32. Brewers (Cordero)

:

Quick question... How is the order of the supplemental picks chosen? I thought they would be in order of their Elias scores, giving the Brewers the first pick in the supplemental round.

 

[RyDogg66]

Question about some of the guys on your list Colby. What is Piazza's story? If he goes to Japan, would the A's still get a pick there? And what are the chances of some of these guys accepting arbitration? Most notably I look at that list and I could see guys like Loretta, Stewert, and Vizcaino accepting arb.

[colbyjack]

No, the Elias scores don't play too big of a part of how the picks are distributed. The biggest effect they have is if a team signs two Type A free agents, as the team losing the higher rated free agent gets the earlier pick.

 

If teams lose multiple Type A or Type B free agents the Elias rankings do play a part somewhat, but more as a technicality. I'll try to explain this just below. Here's the nitty gritty:

 

Teams are awarded comp picks for Type A free agents first.

 

The worst team from the previous year that loses a Type A free agent gets the first pick, followed by the second worst team, etc. Teams that lose a free agent are each given a compensation pick before teams that lose multiple free agents are awarded their second, third, etc., comp picks.

 

Once all comp picks are distributed for Type A free agents, compensatory picks for Type B free agents are handed out, with the same format, worst team getting the first pick for Type B free agents, cycling through all of the teams first before picks are handed to teams with multiple Type B free agents, etc.

 

When it comes to teams that have multiple Type A or Type B free agents, the player with the higher Elias score garners the highest pick, but as noted above, this is merely a formality. For example, the Brewers 32nd pick in the sandwich round is for Cordero, and their projected 36th pick is for Linebrink.

 

And if Piazza goes to Japan, the A's do not get a comp pick. The rules only apply to the free agency among the 30 MLB teams. I agree, I could also see Loretta, Stewart and Vizcaino all accepting arby. I also think guys like Mike Cameron and Michael Barrett could re-sign with the Padres, and Timlin as reported is supposed to re-sign with the Red Sox.

[PeaveyFury]

Timlin officially back to the Sox:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3139894

[colbyjack]

We whittled some names off the free agent list last week, and we may be able to remove a few more after today, as today is the deadline in which free agents have to accept or decline arbitration. Players that accept arbitration return to their 2007 teams, players that decline can still negotiate with their 2007 team (a change that started last year I believe), but they are also free to negotiate with other teams as well.

 

Two Astros, Mark Loretta and Trever Miller, reportedly are expected to accept arbitration. Eric Gagne may do so as well, as he would keep his contract in the $6M/year range if he's not getting the offers he was initially expecting (although he may not be improving his case by doing so as a set-up man in Boston as opposed to signing a one-year deal elsewhere to serve as a closer, as the difference between closers and set-up men is huge when it comes to money).

 

Michael Barrett is expected to accept arbitration with the Padres, with Mike Cameron a possibility as well, who reportedly is still mulling a two-year offer from the team (accepting arbitration would still allow for that to happen).

 

Shannon Stewart and Mike Piazza are expected to decline arbitration from the A's. As are Livan Hernandez, Aaron Rowand, Shannon Stewart, Mike Piazza and Ron Mahay. I'm unsure about Luis Vizcaino and Pedro Feliz.

 

If Loretta, Miller, Gagne, Cameron and Barrett all accept arbitration, that brings the sandwich round down to 15 picks, less than half of the number of picks a year ago, and even that number could do down a little more if guys like Vizcaino and Feliz end up accepting arbitration, if Stewart re-signs with the A's and if Piazza heads to Japan or retires. If all of that happens, we're talking about 11 picks in the sandwich round, meaning each of the Brewers second round picks could move up at least five spots and as many as nine or 10.

 

When those names are confirmed I will be sure to remove them from the master list above, unless someone beats me to it of course.

[PeaveyFury]

Barrett officially back to the Pads.

 

Loretta accepts arby, Miller declines.

[PeaveyFury]

It appears that Loretta and Barrett were the only FA's to accept arby. I edited colby's comp-pick round order accordingly.

[colbyjack]

I've had a few messages from people asking about the comp picks that the Braves and the Red Sox will receive for unsigned 2nd round picks from a year ago, Josh Fields and Hunter Morris. I'm going to try and ask someone that can answer this question in the next few days, but it does bring up an interesting subject.

 

Since unsigned players through the second round garner the team that lost them a pick right after that selection, the question is does the team that lost such a pick get the selection right after the overall selection or the pick right after the slot in that round?

 

For instance, Josh Fields was the 69th overall pick last year (the fifth pick in the second round), so do the Braves get in effect the 70th overall pick or do they get the pick right after the fifth overall pick in the second round?

 

If it's the earlier scenario, the Brewers trio of second rounders would all fall before the Braves comp pick given how much smaller the sandwich round stands to be next June.

 

If it's the latter, the Brewers second round pick will be where I have them listed just above.

 

The difference in single picks may not seem like much, but keep in mind that in 2003 the Brewers likely would have taken Jarrod Saltalamacchia with their second round pick had he slipped past the Braves three spots ahead of them in the sandwich round.

 

So, it's possible the Brewers second round picks at this point in time would be the 55th, 56th and 64th overall picks, all three before the Braves comp pick for not signing Josh Fields last year.

 

And as it stands right now, the Brewers third-round selection would be the 96th overall selection, giving the Brewers seven picks in the top 100.

[Boy Jeenius]

I stop by here every night just to stare at the 7 picks in the top 100. Last year we had one in the top 100, and it was no fun at all.

[colbyjack]

With Rowand going to the Giants no more Type A free agents are eligible to be signed, meaning the Brewers will retain the 32nd and 35th overall picks in the sandwich round and will receive the Reds and White Sox second round picks (which will be somewhere in the 46-56 range).

 

It also should be noted that all of the Brewers second round picks will be taken in what would still be the sandwich round from a year ago, even if the remaining Type B free agents all sign with different teams for the 2008 season.

[colbyjack]

My column this week focuses on the draft order as it stands right now, with a focus on the Brewers who stand to have more comp picks than any other team:

 

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/crackthebat/patrick_ebert/07_12_19_comp_picks/

[colbyjack]

I noted in a different thread just now that I now have profiles for the top 60 draft eligible prospects entered into the 2008 Brewerfan.net draft database. You can access the default draft page by clicking on "draft" in the maroon sub-nav bar at the top of any Brewerfan.net page, or simply go to this link:

 

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewDraftArchive.do?draftId=6

 

To view all the players in the database, of which I will be adding more and more as the weeks progress, click on the drop-down menu "Player Profiles" and select "All."

 

Please note that I have not yet added pictures or links for the top 31-60 prospects, only their scouting reports.

[GagneCY03]

CJ, I was wondering if you know of any internet video on Jarret Martin. I checked BaseballWebTV.com but came up empty. Also saw that he played in the Cape Cod HS Classic but can't find an online feed of the game. From his scouting report, he looks like a Clayton Kershaw-lite that would be the quintessential Logan White pick. Thanks in advance.

[colbyjack]

Sorry Gagne, I don't know of any internet video of Martin. He hasn't really pitched at any PG events outside of last October's WWBA Jupiter championship, which is why there is no BBWebTV video.

 

 

 

I know he did pitch at the Cape Cod event that is promoted by Team One and Baseball Factory if you're able to find any video that route.

 

 

 

He has some Kershaw potential to him given his present day size and stuff vs. that of Kershaw's as he prepared himself for his senior season.

[GagneCY03]

Alright, thanks CJ. He goes to school about 2 hours north of me so I'm going to have to get out and see him this spring.