When do we know what compensation we'd get for Linebrink?

[TheCrew07]

When we do know what the compensation will be for letting him walk?

 

 

(please try to use subjects that explain what the thread is about, rather than just a player's name. -TC)

[brewswinga2]

I think the rankings were announced Oct. 31st last year, not sure if it will be the same day this year or not.

[colbyjack]

We now know that both Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink will be Type A free agents, meaning the Brewers get two compensation picks if they offer them both arbitration (which they would be stupid not to) and if they both sign elsewhere (which I have a feeling they will).

 

Cordero has an Elias ranking of 83.657, with only four other free agents (from what I can tell) rated higher than him (Posada, Rivera, Lowell and Arod). Unless a team that finished among the 15 worst teams this past season signs Cordero, there's a pretty good chance the Brewers would get a first and a sandwich pick for him.

 

Linebrink has a rating of 72.834, with 12 other Type A free agents ranked higher than him (again, from my quick comparison between the Elias rankings list and the free agent list).

 

While I wish the team would find a way to at least keep Cordero, I just think some team is going to give him an insane amount of money (the Cubs?). Should Cordero and Linebrink both walk, that would mean four additional early round picks.

 

Here's a peak at a few teams over the few years and what they did with their collection of early picks (I was somewhat surprised by how many of these players have already seemingly disappeared in prospectdom):

 

'04 White Sox: Josh Fields (1), Tyler Lumsden (1s), Gio Gonzalez (1s), Wes Whisler (2), Donny Lucy (2), Ray Liotta (2)

 

'04 Twins:: Trevor Plouffe (1), Glen Perkins (1), Kyle Waldrop (1), Matt Fox (1s), Jay Rainville (1s), Anthony Swarzak (2)

 

'04 A's: Landon Powell (1), Richie Robnett (1), Danny Putnam (1s), Huston Street (1s), Michael Rogers (2), Kurt Suzuki (2)

 

'05 Marlins: Chris Volstad (1), Aaron Thompson (1), Jacob Marceaux (1), Ryan Tucker (1s), Seat West (1s), Kris Harvey (2)

 

'06 Braves: Cody Johnson (1), Cory Rasmus (1S), Steve Evarts (1s), Jeff Locke (2), Dustin Evans (2), Chase Fontaine (2)

 

'06 Red Sox: Jason Place (1), Daniel Bard (1), Kris Johnson (1s), Caleb Clay (1s), Justin Masterson (2), Aaron Bates (3)

 

And of course there's last year, in which teams cashed in on the rule change for Type B free agents before they changed the percentages that defined Type A and B FAs:

 

'07 Giants: Madison Bumgarner (1), Tim Alderson (1), Wendell Fairley (1), Nick Noonan (1s), Jackson Williams (1s), Charlie Culberson (1s)

 

'07 Nationals: Ross Detwiler (1), Josh Smoker (1s), Michael Burgess (1s), Jordan Zimmerman (2), Jake Smolinski (2)

 

'07 Blue Jays: Kevin Ahrens (1), J.P. Arencibia (1), Brett Cecil (1s), Justin Jackson (1s), Tryston Magnuson (1s), John Tolisano (2), Eric Eiland (2)

 

'07 Padres: Nick Schmidt (1), Kellen Kulbacki (1s), Drew Cumberland (1s), Mitch Canham (1s), Cory Luebke (1s), Danny Payne (1s), Eric Sogard (2), Brad Chalk (2)

 

'07 Rangers: Blake Beaven (1), Michael Main (1), Julio Borbon (1s), Neil Ramirez (1s), Tommy Hunter (1s), Matt West (2)

 

The '05 Marlins is an interesting team to look at, since they too had the 16th overall slot that year, and they loaded up on pitching, something I think a lot of people somewhat expect the Brewers to do next June.

 

I think last year's Blue Jays draft would mirror an approach the Brewers would use, although there are a couple of college arms sprinkled in (if the Brewers have extra, early picks, they may just have to use one of them on a college pitcher!).

[Mass Haas]

From Jim Callis at Baseball America:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/265150.html

 

[tt]Could you give us the list of Type A and B free agents?[/tt]

We track free-agent compensation throughout the offseason in Ask BA, so let's start with a review of how it's determined. The Elias Sports Bureau calculates ratings based on performance over the last two years, with players divided into the following groups: catchers; first basemen, outfielders and DHs; second basemen, third basemen and shortstops; starting pitchers; and relief pitchers. The top 20 percent of players at a position are designated Type A free agents, while those in the 21-40 percent group are Type B free agents.

Any free agent who doesn't qualify as a Type A or B requires no compensation. Additionally, any Type A or B free agent who isn't offered arbitration by his former club also yields no compensation. Otherwise, the former team gets the signing club's first-round pick and a supplemental first-round selection for a Type A free agent, or just the supplemental first-rounder for a Type B. The first 15 picks in the first round are protected, so if a club holding one of those choices signs a Type A free agent, it surrenders its second-rounder instead.

With all that now out of the way, here's the list of Type A and B free agents:

Ari: RHP Livan Hernandez (B). Atl: OF Andruw Jones (B), LHP Ron Mahay (B). Bos: RHP Eric Gagne (B), 3B Mike Lowell (A), RHP Mike Timlin (B). ChC: C Jason Kendall (B). Cle: OF Kenny Lofton (B). Col: RHP Jorge Julio (B), C Yorvit Torrealba (B). Det: 1B Sean Casey (B), RHP Todd Jones (B), LHP Kenny Rogers (B). Hou: INF Mark Loretta (B), RHP Trever Miller (B). KC: RHP David Riske (B). LAD: OF Luis Gonzalez (B). Mil: RHP Francisco Cordero (A), 2B/3B Tony Graffanino (B), RHP Scott Linebrink (A). Min: OF Torii Hunter (A). NYM: 2B Luis Castillo (B), LHP Tom Glavine (A), OF Shawn Green (B), C Paul LoDuca (B). NYY: LHP Andy Pettitte (A), C Jorge Posada (A), RHP Mariano Rivera (A), 3B Alex Rodriguez (A), RHP Luis Vizcaino (B). Oak: C Mike Piazza (B), OF Shannon Stewart (B). Phi: RHP Freddy Garcia (B), 2B Tadahito Iguchi (A), OF Aaron Rowand (A). StL: SS David Eckstein (B), RHP Troy Percival (B), RHP Russ Springer (A). SD: C Michael Barrett (A), OF Milton Bradley (A), RHP Doug Brocail (B), OF Mike Cameron (B). SF: OF Barry Bonds (A), 3B Pedro Feliz (B), SS Omar Vizquel (B). Sea: OF Jose Guillen (B). TB: *RHP Al Reyes (B). *Team holds 2008 option.

The Yankees potentially could land the most compensation draft choices of any team, as they would get four first-round selections and five sandwich picks if they were to lose Pettitte, Posada, Rivera, Rodriguez and Vizcaino. That's unlikely to happen, of course. Pettitte has said he'll either return to New York or retire, while the Yankees both desperately need Posada and Rivera and can pay them more than any other club could.

New York has four Type A free agents. The only other teams with as many as two are the Brewers, Padres and Phillies.

[colbyjack]

Not bad, I was only off by two players (refer to the draft resource thread pinned at the top of this page), as I missed only Trever Miller and Shawn Green. Miller I just missed, while Green I didn't think counted since he supposedly had a mutual option with the Mets.

 

Russ Springer re-signed with the Cardinals in early to mid-October, so that is one player Callis mistakenly added.

 

Players such as Tim Wakefield, Curt Schlling and Juan Uribe have been removed from my master list since re-upping with their current teams.

 

As of right now only 46 free agents have the potential to have an effect on the draft compensation. That number will likely be cut in half as teams don't offer some of these players arbitration with a handful likekly returning to their 2007 clubs.

 

As I noted in the 2008 draft resource thread, I will make sure to cross names off of the list as they sign. I'm going to make sure this year not to delete those names completely, as the Elias rankings go a long way to determine the draft order for 2008.

[mothershipconnection]

Looks like we'll be using our own 1st rounder next year, because of the list of type-A's, I could only see us signing Lowell, Rowand, and Barrett, and none are a very good chance IMO.

[MadtownTim]

In a piece in the MJS it was explained that it depends on who signs CoCo and/or Linebrink as to whether we get a first or second round pick.

From the article:

Cordero, Linebrink rate: Free-agents Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink are Class A relievers, meaning the Brewers could get first-round picks in return should they sign elsewhere. But it depends on which teams sign them.

With their first winning season in 15 years, the Brewers ranked among the upper half (No. 15) in terms of won-lost record in '07. If a team in the lower half signs Cordero or Linebrink, the Brewers would get that team's second-round pick, not its first-round pick.

"If it's a team in the top half, we get their first-round pick," said Melvin. "So, the highest pick we could get is No. 17 (the Brewers pick 16th next June)."

The article is a pretty good read. Check it out here

[dadofandrew]

I agree with MS, the two gys that require comp we might sign are our own guys.

[colbyjack]

With Posada re-signing with the Yankees and the expectation that Mariano Rivera will likely follow suit with Mike Lowell likely to remain in Boston, that leaves Arod as the only free agent rated higher than Cordero. That means unless Cordero signs with the same team that signs Arod, which would seem incredibly unlikely, the Brewers will be getting the top possible pick from whichever teams signs him. If that team finished among the 15 best teams in baseball, that would mean a first rounder. If that team finished among the worst 15 teams in baseball, that would mean a second rounder, and a relatively early second rounder at that.

 

Sandwich picks are awarded in order to the worst team that lost the best FA, meaning, only Barry Bonds and Torri Hunter would garner the Giants and Twins respectively the first and second overall picks in the supplemental round, only if the Giants and Twins offer arbitration to those two players (I would guess the Twins will do so with Hunter, my guess is that the Giants will not do so with Bonds). That means that if Cordero or Linebrink sign elsewhere, since they're both Type A free agents, the Brewers will receive no worse than the third pick of the sandwich round. If both Cordero and Linebrink sign elsewhere, the picks cycle through all of the other teams first before the Brewers get the opportunity to pick again, and all of the comp picks are awarded for the Type A free agents before they award picks for all of the Type B free agents.

 

In short, this is what the early picks of the sandwich round could look like (I'm going to assume that Lowell, Rivera and Andy Pettitte aren't going to factor into the compensation picks):

 

31. Giants (Bonds)

32. Twins (Hunter)

33. Brewers (Cordero)

34. Mets (Glavine)

35. Padres (Barrett)

36. Phillies (Rowand)

37. Yankees (Arod)

38. Brewers (Linebrink)

39. Padres (Bradley)

40. Phillies (Iguchi)

 

Like I said above, I would be somewhat surprised to see Bonds offered arby, and I'm not so sure the Phillies would do so with Iguchi. The rest are probably no-brainers.

 

After that there are 30 Type B free agents that will fall into place, a number that will obviously decrease as some of those players I'm sure will re-sign with their '07 ballclubs while a few others will not be offered arbitration.

[colbyjack]

More and more rumors floating out there, as it seems as though Cordero could head to a team that is among the 15 worst teams from 2007, with the Houston Astros being mentioned frequently. This of course would mean the Brewers would get a second round pick if that's the way it shakes out.

 

And that makes sense, considering the 15 best teams from 2007 for the most part already have established closers. The Cubs really are the only team that I could see of the teams drafting in the 16-30 range that would make a strong run for Coco, and I'd much rather they didn't.

[Mass Haas]

Just posted on the major league forum:

 

Unfortunately, because it's the White Sox, who were among baseball's worst teams last year, the Brewers will have to settle for a second-rounder (and not a first-rounder) to go along with their supplemental first-round pick.

 

The supplemental sandwich pick should be about the 36th pick, and the White Sox pick will be around pick # 46.

[colbyjack]

Now with Cordero and Linebrink heading elsewhere, the one thing we can look forward to is something we really haven't had the opportunity to follow, since I know I wasn't online talking about the draft the last time the Brewers had extra, early picks http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

 

See some of the similar scenarios that I listed above of teams in recent years that had a plethora of extra, early draft picks to get a sense of the type of haul the Brewers will enjoy next June.

 

Here's how the beginning of the sandwich round could look before the Type B free agents are factored in (not all of those players are going to be offered arbitration, and some will remain with their '07 clubs):

 

31. Giants (Bonds)

32. Twins (Hunter)

33. Brewers (Cordero)

34. Mets (Glavine)

35. Padres (Barrett)

36. Phillies (Rowand)

37. Yankees (Arod)

38. Brewers (Linebrink)

39. Padres (Bradley)

40. Phillies (Iguchi)

 

This is assuming Pettitte either returns to the Yankees or retires. Arod is likely to return to the Bronx, meaning Linebrink bumps up to #37. I strongly doubt Bonds will be offered arby, bumping both Cordero and Linebrink up a spot a piece at #32 and #36. There's still a chance Rowand returns to Philly, and I wouldn't be completely surprised if the Padres didn't offer Barrett arby, unless they wish to keep him around. Should Rowand remain with the Phillies and Barrett not factor in as well, we could be looking at the number 32 and number 34 selections overall, while also landing consecutive second-rounders from the Reds and White Sox, the seventh and eighth picks of the second round.

 

While it was noted above that the White Sox second rounder would likely be around pick #46, last year's seventh and eighth picks in the second round were 71 and 72 overall. I'm not expecting the sandwich round going quite as deep this year, but the 55-65 range is more likely than #46. We'll know a lot more about who is eligible for compensation when the December 1st arby deadline comes and goes.

 

This is the silver lining, the consolation prize for losing out on two talent players that the Brewers will be put to task to replace. It may not be comforting at this time of year, but man will it be exciting come June (and all spring for that matter). Draft day will be like Christmas day, more than usual.

 

What will be interesting to see is if the Brewers pays slot value for all of these extra picks. I don't expect any team to pay slot value for each and every one of their extra picks, but if they do so, the Brewers are likely looking at an additional $2.5-$2.8 million needed to get these picks in the fold. That ain't chump change, and I think it will speak volumes as to whether or not the team is as cheap when it comes to the draft as some people try to contend.

 

The easy answer of course is to roll some of the money over from the 4-year, $42 million dollar deal they offered Cordero into next year's draft budget http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

[Chio151]

So, with 6 picks in the first two rounds, could that mean that we'll tack a stab at some Boras clients that slip? I'd think college pitchers and even relievers would get more consideration. Should be exciting.

[colbyjack]

The Brewers have avoided Boras clients each and every year. Now that they have extra, early picks to sign, which will require a greater financial commitment to these players, getting involved with Boras clients is the last thing the Brewers will do.

 

If anything I could see a couple of their picks signing quickly for below slot value.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

The Brewers have avoided Boras clients each and every year.

 

Actually LaPorta was a Boras guy, wasn't he? Little different situation being a Senior and all . . . but still.

[colbyjack]

Yeah, thanks EDR, I should have worded that differently.

 

I doubt they are going to mess with a Boras client that falls (like Porcello last year), as opposed to dealing one who won't be taken any higher than wherever the Brewers were to select such a player (like LaPorta).

[splitterpfj]

If anything I could see a couple of their picks signing quickly for below slot value.

Absolutely, the Brewers are very good at evaluating a player's talent, as well as his signability prior to the draft. It does you no good to have extra picks if you use them on guys who never sign. This is also why I think a college closer may be taken somewhere in the mix, grab a kid who didn't expect to be taken quite so high, pay him more than he was expecting, which could still be less than slot value, and get him moving quickly.

I thought the LaPorta selection was brilliant. This is a player who projects to fill a need fairly quickly, and still, he hadn't expected to go that high, so he was actually grateful and eager to sign.

[colbyjack]

It does you no good to have extra picks if you use them on guys who never sign.

 

Teams do receive compensation picks for unsigned draft picks through the top three rounds. IIRC, unsigned first, first-round supplemental and second round picks garner a pick right after that selection in the next year's draft. Unsigned third round picks garner a compensatory pick in a supplemental round after the third round.

 

For instance, the highest unsigned player from last year's draft, Joshua Fields, a closer from Georgia and the 5th pick in the second round last year will fetch the Braves in essence the 6th pick in the second round (something I forgot about, at that actually will bump each of the Brewers second round picks down one spot).

 

So, that does give teams a little added negotiating value, but teams would much rather sign their picks than gamble by waiting a year. Plus, the Brewers in particular are known for signing their picks quickly and getting them into the system under the leadership of Jack Z.

[colbyjack]

This could be good news in regards to draft-pick compensation in relationship to the Chicago White Sox:

 

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/670126,CST-SPT-sox28.article

 

If you don't like following links, the White Sox reportedly are backing off of their pursuit of Aaron Rowand, and may be re-directing their focus for CF on Coco Crisp, meaning less competition for the Brewers to hold onto the White Sox 2nd round pick.

[biedergb]

In terms of the budget, this seems an opportune time for the Brewers to get the extra early picks. While we haven't had extra early picks in recent years, we have spent a good chunk of chnage on DFE. Since that process is now gone, the money that would have gone to DFE will be coupled with the difference in slot vale from a top 10 pick to the #16 we currently have, and should hopefully be spread out among these 7 picks inthe first 3 rounds (1 1st Rd, 2 sandwich picks, 2-3 2nd rounders, 1-2 3rd rounders).

[igor67]

I think biedergb has excellent points. Though this is kind of a combined post from the Resource thread as well. But given that the Crew is drafting lower on average than other years unless the draft budget was cut I don't think there is any serious pressure to draft guys who'll take less. I seem to recall Weeks got his big money at over a 4 million dollar bonus and we had a second rounder, plus some DFE's that year. Especially if you account for inflation those totals for the draft budget look remarkably similar. Now maybe the team just wants to go that safe route, but I also feel that there's some MLB budget money that doesn't look like it's going to get spent, and playing a little bit of chicken with a guy who falls isn't the worst way to spend that, particularly if it's a little hedge on our normal 1st rounder signing.