Is this the quantity for quality offseason?

[Weirdos19]

Personally, I think next years rotation should be Sheets, Suppan, Villy, Gallardo, and X. X could be any number of pitchers. I think Parra could be a valuable long reliever, filling in when an injury hits.

It could be Bush, Capuano, or Vargas. But I'm in the camp that thinks a deal could be made to acquire a #2 pitcher.

If we were to dangle 2 of Bush, Cappy, and Vargas to a team looking for depth, we could have a great, young rotation.

Teams that badly need pitching depth: Houston, St Louis, Cincinnati, TB, NY Yankees, CWS, KC, Oakland, Texas, NY Mets, Philly, Atlanta, Florida, and Washington. Not all match up well with what the Brewers need. I would say that the Yankees, Royals, Oakland, Mets, and Florida seem to have pitchers that could be attainable.

Yankees: Chien Mang Wang- May cost us a bundle, but also a ground ball pitcher and innings eater that would fit great. One bad postseason in the Bronx may get you the door. The Yanks may take a package of Hall, Bush or Cappy, and Gwynn. Hall may fit at third if Arod leaves and Gwynn could be the defensive fourth outfielder they need with Melky Cabrera starting in center. If this deal needs Parra instead of Bush, I would have no problem with that.

The Yankees rotation: Pettitte, Hudson, Hughes, Joba, and Bush

KC: Zack Grienke- Won't cost us nearly as much as Wang, but not cheap either. Royals are still a year or two away, but depth has to be a priority in that division. Cappy and Vargas could net us a guy that needs the scenery change.


Oakland- Joe Blanton- Another young sinkerballer that would be a terrific addition. Parra and Iribarren may get the job done.

Mets- Oliver Perez- Listed here because of their collapse. Will make some big moves. Bill Hall could play second for them next year. Hall and Vargas for Perez?

Florida- Dontrelle Willis- Another lefty that may fit here. Always looking for prospects, like Oakland. Gross and ZJ may be enough to get Willis to Milwaukee.


Is this the offseason?

[trwi7]

Yankees: Chien Mang Wang- May cost us a bundle, but also a ground ball pitcher and innings eater that would fit great.

 

Wang would be a horrible fit with our infield defense.

[Weirdos19]

Suppan's numbers were about the same as his career numbers, and he's a groundball pitcher.

[Gopher74]

Yankees: Chien Mang Wang- May cost us a bundle, but also a ground ball pitcher and innings eater that would fit great.

Wang would be a horrible fit with our infield defense.

Wang would be a GREAT addition.

 

I mean, what you're essentially saying is that fly ball pitchers are better than ground ball pitchers. I cant' articulate how strongly I disagree with that. Ground balls are almost always preferable to fly balls. It doesn't matter how good your defense is if the ball lands behind the fence.

 

But the thing is, we're not getting Wang. He's going to cost a lot more than we'd be willing to give up. He's a Cy Young runner up, a 19 game winner, and just a VERY good pitcher overall.

Plus, our IF defense will get better. Weeks made huge strides, Hardy's a good Shortstop....we may never be great, but we're still talking about making 95 pct of the plays.

[Gopher74]

Personally, I think next years rotation should be Sheets, Suppan, Villy, Gallardo, and X. X could be any number of pitchers. I think Parra could be a valuable long reliever, filling in when an injury hits.

 

It could be Bush, Capuano, or Vargas. But I'm in the camp that thinks a deal could be made to acquire a #2 pitcher.

 

If we were to dangle 2 of Bush, Cappy, and Vargas to a team looking for depth, we could have a great, young rotation.

 

Teams that badly need pitching depth: Houston, St Louis, Cincinnati, TB, NY Yankees, CWS, KC, Oakland, Texas, NY Mets, Philly, Atlanta, Florida, and Washington. Not all match up well with what the Brewers need. I would say that the Yankees, Royals, Oakland, Mets, and Florida seem to have pitchers that could be attainable.

 

Yankees: Chien Mang Wang- May cost us a bundle, but also a ground ball pitcher and innings eater that would fit great. One bad postseason in the Bronx may get you the door. The Yanks may take a package of Hall, Bush or Cappy, and Gwynn. Hall may fit at third if Arod leaves and Gwynn could be the defensive fourth outfielder they need with Melky Cabrera starting in center. If this deal needs Parra instead of Bush, I would have no problem with that.

The Yankees rotation: Pettitte, Hudson, Hughes, Joba, and Bush

 

KC: Zack Grienke- Won't cost us nearly as much as Wang, but not cheap either. Royals are still a year or two away, but depth has to be a priority in that division. Cappy and Vargas could net us a guy that needs the scenery change.

 

 

Oakland- Joe Blanton- Another young sinkerballer that would be a terrific addition. Parra and Iribarren may get the job done.

 

Mets- Oliver Perez- Listed here because of their collapse. Will make some big moves. Bill Hall could play second for them next year. Hall and Vargas for Perez?

 

Florida- Dontrelle Willis- Another lefty that may fit here. Always looking for prospects, like Oakland. Gross and ZJ may be enough to get Willis to Milwaukee.

 

 

Is this the offseason?

I'd take Greinke, Blanton, and Perez in that order. Obviously Wang would be the first choice, but he's going to cost too much. The Yanks aren't going to give away a good young pitcher like Wang, who's dominant at times.

 

I've wanted Greinke since the Royals moved him to the pen last year. He's got great stuff. Ace TYPE stuff. He may never reach that status because he seems to have mental issues. I don't know that he's mentally tough enough to handle failure, so I think you'd have to bring him along nice and slowly.

Blanton on the other hand has good stuff, and has been consistent the last couple years. I'd have to say that the A's are going to want a fairly substantial return on a guy who's young, and had a big of break out year last year. Probably Hall+.

 

Perez has also got ace type stuff, and I don't know what his deals been. He was Ben Sheets-esque a couple years ago(04 I believe), and he's still very young. A power lefty with ace type stuff who may be available because of the Mets collapse? He'd be an interesting option to pursue. Still though, you don't know if you're getting last years Perez, the two prior years, or the year before THAT. Could be great, or could be awful. At least the other two are a bit more consistent.

 

In the end, Greinke seems to be the best option. If you can get a little confidence in him, and he can start out perhaps as the number5 or even the long man and pitch well in the NL, then perhaps he can build off that success and eventually move up and become a more intricate part of your rotation in the future. God knows he's got the talent.

[trwi7]

I mean, what you're essentially saying is that fly ball pitchers are better than ground ball pitchers. I cant' articulate how strongly I disagree with that. Ground balls are almost always preferable to fly balls. It doesn't matter how good your defense is if the ball lands behind the fence.

 

Tell me where I EVER said that FB pitchers are better than GB pitchers. I didn't. What I am saying is if we go into next year with an infield of Braun/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder which is very likely, many of the groundballs that were stopped for Wang the past couple years will go through allowing more runs to score.

[BucEbadger]

I gotta say i would look at a deal with Oakland as they are gonna be looking for OF help and SP..

I would target Rich Harden as hes a very promising pitcher who cant stay healthy but when hes on hes a STUD

 

Oak gets

Gabe Gross OF

Chris Capuano LP

Zack Jackson LP

 

Brewers get

Rich Harden RP

Rob Bowen C

Jack Cust OF

 

Then i would try to pry Prior away from Chicago to go in that Long Relief role and see if he can have a full season with out injuries....

 

Rotation would look like

Sheets

Gallardo

Harden

Parra

Villy

 

Pen

Cordero Closer

Turnbow Setup

Vargas 7th inning man

Prior Long Relief

McClung 6th-7th inning man

King LHP

Shouse LHP

[Gopher74]

I mean, what you're essentially saying is that fly ball pitchers are better than ground ball pitchers. I cant' articulate how strongly I disagree with that. Ground balls are almost always preferable to fly balls. It doesn't matter how good your defense is if the ball lands behind the fence.

Tell me where I EVER said that FB pitchers are better than GB pitchers. I didn't. What I am saying is if we go into next year with an infield of Braun/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder which is very likely, many of the groundballs that were stopped for Wang the past couple years will go through allowing more runs to score.

You said that you didn't want Wang because he was a GB pitcher. If you don't want him because he's a GB pitcher, I'm assuming that you'd rather have a Fly Ball pitcher. Your exact words were he'd be a horrible fit in Milwaukee with our IF defense.

 

The fact is, Ground Balls are almost always better than Fly Balls. He'd still be a very, very good pitcher in Milwaukee.

 

[trwi7]

You said that you didn't want Wang because he was a GB pitcher.

 

Just stop. You're lying these are my only posts in this thread.

 

Wang would be a horrible fit with our infield defense.

Tell me where I EVER said that FB pitchers are better than GB pitchers. I didn't. What I am saying is if we go into next year with an infield of Braun/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder which is very likely, many of the groundballs that were stopped for Wang the past couple years will go through allowing more runs to score.

I never once said if I preferred strikeout pitchers, groundball pitchers or flyball pitchers. What I did say or what I meant to say is he wouldn't be as good here because of our horrible infield defense. We have one above average defender in the infield and two of the worst at their positions in Weeks and Braun. You don't think that would have an effect on Wang?

[brettac1]

Oak gets

Gabe Gross OF

Chris Capuano LP

Zack Jackson LP

 

Brewers get

Rich Harden RP

Rob Bowen C

Jack Cust OF

 

Wow, talk about highway robbery. I don't see any way the A's would consider that. Cust is their best hitter, and they'd be getting a platoon guy for him. And, I'd rather have 20 starts by Harden than 30 by Capuano. Bowen would probably be available, though, since they have Powell and Suzuki behind the plate.

 

I would agree with people that like Greinke, but the dude is starting to realize his potential, so I don't see why the Royals would move him, let alone for someone like Vargas or Capuano. I don't think he needs a scenery change at all, he was great this season.

[paul253]

The only problem with relying on Sheets, Harden and Prior is that all three are likely to get hurt, so you have to have a ton of depth to make up for it. And thats not going to be the case b/c we should trade at least one, possibly 2 SP's to get some bullpen help.

[Gopher74]

You said that you didn't want Wang because he was a GB pitcher.

Just stop. You're lying these are my only posts in this thread.

 

Wang would be a horrible fit with our infield defense.

Tell me where I EVER said that FB pitchers are better than GB pitchers. I didn't. What I am saying is if we go into next year with an infield of Braun/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder which is very likely, many of the groundballs that were stopped for Wang the past couple years will go through allowing more runs to score.

I never once said if I preferred strikeout pitchers, groundball pitchers or flyball pitchers. What I did say or what I meant to say is he wouldn't be as good here because of our horrible infield defense. We have one above average defender in the infield and two of the worst at their positions in Weeks and Braun. You don't think that would have an effect on Wang?

Not nearly as big as I think most people do.

 

A GB can only hurt you so much, and I think we'll see an improvement from Braun. And I think Weeks took a huge leap last year, and for the most part was actually average(he had a bad couple weeks), and I think he'll take another step this year.

 

As for Braun, I also think he'll improve. I don't know that he'll ever be good, or above average, but if he can get just to only slightly below I think we'll be fine.

 

I think if you get GB's without team, you're going to be just fine. I mean, we're talking about 20 errors the entire year that seperate awful from great? I also think that our IF has very good range. Of course that won't show up on on range factor because of the number of errors they have, but I think they GET to more balls than most. I mean, when Ryan Braun has a worse range factor than say Miquel Cabrera, I think you can say it's not a good indicator. Braun has much better RANGE, but does commit more errors.

 

But I think he'd do significantly better than any other pitcher on that list.

 

So yea, I think he'd be fine here, but I do not think that he'd the smart one to go after given the cost it'd take to pry him away.

 

[endaround]

Our infield doesn't have great range. The infield doesn't get to balls, it can't throw the ball and the first baseman can't dig the ball.

 

And yes Braun has less range than Cabrera

[Gopher74]

Our infield doesn't have great range. The infield doesn't get to balls, it can't throw the ball and the first baseman can't dig the ball.

 

And yes Braun has less range than Cabrera

I'm not sure what to say to that. Have you seen Cabrera play, or are you just going off of Range Factor? I'm asking a honest question here. I think people can get far to wrapped up in defensive ratings which I don't believe have a whole lotta use.

 

I absolutely, definitely do not agree with that statement. I mean, watch the guy play. He literally was a step off the line when the Marlins were playing the Cubs at the end of the year because he has such poor range he couldn't get over. The Cubs announcers, awful as they may be were making a joke of it.

 

There's just no way his range is anywhere near Braun's.

 

And our IF does have good range. They make a lot of errors ruining their range factor, but they absolutely have good range in terms of balls they get to.

 

But I honestly don't want to have this same argument every time this comes up. I don't buy that Weeks and Braun, two of the better athletes to play 2nd and 3rd don't have good range simply because they make a lot of errors. And then next year when they don't make as many errors, I won't believe their range improved that much.

 

I do agree that Prince is a sub-par first basemen, and I think over the course of a year the number of balls not picked by Prince over that of a average player is very minimal.

 

[kgbaseball]

Wang is a terrible fit here for 2 reasons. 1, he doesn't strike anyone out. The Brewers defense needs pitchers that K a lot of guys so they don't have to field the ball, and 2, he's obviously a big groundball pitcher, and with the Brewers infield D...yikes.

[Gopher74]

Wang is a terrible fit here for 2 reasons. 1, he doesn't strike anyone out. The Brewers defense needs pitchers that K a lot of guys so they don't have to field the ball, and 2, he's obviously a big groundball pitcher, and with the Brewers infield D...yikes.

Well that's really only one reason, isn't it? I mean, if the Brewers IF D was better, would you think they need more K's?

But what are we talking about here? We're talking about 15 or so errors over 6,000+ total chances(league average) that makes you a good, bad or average defense.

 

And everyone would rather have strikeout pitchers. I'd rather have Peavy than Webb, but it's not Wang or a great strikeout pitcher. It's simply, does Wang represent a major upgrade? IMO, he does. He's gone 38-13 the last two years pitching in the toughest division in baseball, and had ERA's in the mid 3's. I mean, take into consideration the .2 average drop from AL to NL, and you've got a pretty dang good pitcher.

 

[kgbaseball]

It was 1.5 points, really. Overall defense in the first, and infield defense in the second.

 

Wang got 7.04 runs of support this year, which was good for like 4th or 5th in the entire MLB. He's as overrated as they come. He's not a true ace like he's made out to be by any stretch. Does he represent an upgrade? Of course, but what it would take to get him is more than he's worth.

[dadofandrew]

Braun's zone rating was lower than Miguel's, so I have no problem saying he has less range.

 

And, the A's trade is very silly, as the best 3 players would be coming to the Brewers. That said, Cust will not be going to the NL, he's a terrible OF, and why Bonds is so unlikely to be in OAK green in '08.

[Gopher74]

Braun's zone rating was lower than Miguel's, so I have no problem saying he has less range.

 

And, the A's trade is very silly, as the best 3 players would be coming to the Brewers. That said, Cust will not be going to the NL, he's a terrible OF, and why Bonds is so unlikely to be in OAK green in '08.

So you're saying that Cabrera can get to balls that are hit as far to his left, right, of that he has to come in for as well as Braun can? I'm sorry, but I think that's ridiculous.

 

At some point we've got to abandon the defensive ratings and say player A is better than player B. Does anyone dispute that Tori Hunter is a better CF'er than Bill Hall by a substantial margin? Defensive ratings have a use, SOME use, but people are using them as the sole determination of a players defensive worth. If that's the case, Andrew Jones hasn't been more than a slightly above average CF'er in his entire career, nor has Hunter who's been average or below average since 02.

 

That Grady Sizemore is one of the worst everyday CF'ers in the major leagues?

That Arod has the second worst range in the AL at 3rd?

That Adam Dunn has "average" range in left field?

 

I'm not buying it. There are so many more variables in defensive ratings. It's just not a valid stat IMO.

[paul253]

If the Brewers are so worried about their defense, why don't they just fix it instead of being so stubburn? Hall is better than Braun at third, so move Hall to third. Braun can play left and Hart can move to center. I think Hall will be more relaxed at third and therefor his numbers will improve. You just hope Braun doesn't have the opposite affect.

 

Oh, and 10 days out of 10 I'd pick Braun over Cabrera at 3rd. Cabrera doesn't even try because he doesn't want to lower his market value. I think he's a little punk, personally

[Gopher74]

It was 1.5 points, really. Overall defense in the first, and infield defense in the second.

 

Wang got 7.04 runs of support this year, which was good for like 4th or 5th in the entire MLB. He's as overrated as they come. He's not a true ace like he's made out to be by any stretch. Does he represent an upgrade? Of course, but what it would take to get him is more than he's worth.

LOL...I'm not saying that it wouldn't hurt him more than in New York(I am saying it wouldn't hurt his ERA whatsoever) but I think the impact will be minimal.

 

And while he was certainly the benefactor of some good run support in New York, he'd likely get some good run support here as our lineup rounded into shape, and the fact remains that while his run support was good, he has had exceptional ERA's the last two years. A 3.63 would equate to at least a 3.43 over here just given the standards AL-NL differential.

 

[Gopher74]

If the Brewers are so worried about their defense, why don't they just fix it instead of being so stubburn? Hall is better than Braun at third, so move Hall to third. Braun can play left and Hart can move to center. I think Hall will be more relaxed at third and therefor his numbers will improve. You just hope Braun doesn't have the opposite affect.

 

Oh, and 10 days out of 10 I'd pick Braun over Cabrera at 3rd. Cabrera doesn't even try because he doesn't want to lower his market value. I think he's a little punk, personally

Well, to be honest, I don't think they're as concerned as some on here are. I think we sometimes get a little too wrapped up in different stats(I certainly do as well, just not the defensive ones) rather than focusing on the actual players. Plus, I think the Brewers expect Braun to improve like they probably feel Weeks did. Now it can be debated whether Weeks made big strides last year, but I believe that he did.

 

Anyone recall last year during the ASG when Miggy let a ball go by him that a toddler could have reached out and gotten?

So I absolutely agree with you. Miggy's a fat, lazy player who doesn't get to much, other than McDonald's.

[TooLiveBrew]

LOL...I'm not saying that it wouldn't hurt him more than in New York(I am saying it wouldn't hurt his ERA whatsoever) but I think the impact will be minimal.

 

Gopher, no offense intended here, but if you want to ridicule people base on stats, you should really learn a little more about them - honestly, just a little more. I'm not saying I'm a stats guru, but I have very gradually tried to educated myself more & more, as opposed to assuming I know better than people who devote entire careers to devising accurate statistical measurements.

 

If that's the case, Andrew Jones hasn't been more than a slightly above average CF'er in his entire career, nor has Hunter who's been average or below average since 02.

 

I think you might be surprised in talking to scouts on both of these. Many scouts have been saying this for years now, but most people 'listen' to highlight videos. While you're correct in asserting that defensive metrics have their flaws, one principle error you're making is assigning your own (and honestly, my own until I read up a bit) meaning to "range." If you consider range as I did - the amount of ground a fielder is able to cover - you're going to be confused and frustrated by range-based metrics. But if you're willing to consider range in the way it's utilized for these metrics, you'll find yourself a lot happier.

 

Take how The Hardball Times defines zone: "The areas on a ballfield in which at least 50% of batted balls are handled for outs. Zones are standardized and defined separately for each position."

 

Now, I always considered a player's range to be - as I said - the ground he can cover as an athlete & fielder. However, when you recognize how THT employs "zone" in its Revised Zone Rating (RZR), you can see that it's not used in that way. Sure, you can look at range factor, but most 'statheads' (a group in which I do not count myself as having nearly enough expertise to belong) don't like to use RF, since it has obvious flaws. Hence, the creation of ZR, and then for similar reasons (flaws in ZR), RZR.

 

One stat that, imho, people commonly decide is 'range,' is OOZ (Out of Zone). Range, as it is used in metrics today, as I understand, almost inherently has to include the standard, defined-by-position (based on peers), zone. I think you'll find that many of the players (Braun not one of them) we think to have crazy range merely make more OOZ plays than their peers. There's nothing wrong with that, and there's certainly value in it, but there seems to be more value in handling your position's zone competently.

 

A 3.63 would equate to at least a 3.43 over here just given the standards AL-NL differential.

 

Except for the fact that our defense would cancel out any league-switch difference. Our INF defense has a long way to go just to be respectable - it's not all about errors. Using E's to judge defense is a lot like using W-L or ERA to judge a pitcher - in that it's deceptively inaccurate. Honestly, just take a look at where our defenders ranked in 2007 (THT's stats are nice & sortable! http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif) in both RZR & OOZ. I hope you can take the time to do so, I think you'll really enjoy it. I know I have, and I still have a ton to learn.

[dadofandrew]

That Grady Sizemore is one of the worst everyday CF'ers in the major leagues?

That Arod has the second worst range in the AL at 3rd?

That Adam Dunn has "average" range in left field?

 

Sizemore had the highest zone rating of all CF's in MLB.

 

ARod was middle of the pack in zone rating at 3B.

 

Dunn was near the middle, but look who was beneath him, Lee, Burrell, Bonds...truly poor defensive LF's. It's a weak position, so Dunn is indeed about middle of the pack.

 

Jones has been overrated for several years. He's a product of hype. Hunter used to be really good, but has lost a step. However, his diving attempt he missed was far from an easy play, probably just a couple CF's make it. He should have played it as a single.

 

Zone rating is by far the most consistent metric I've seen, the top guy one year is all but always near the top the next.

 

Cabrera barely rated above Braun, .714 to .697. The idea of someone "going by what I see", when that is always a tiny sample, is just pointless when there's zone rating to use.

[TooLiveBrew]

doa, in RZR, A-Rod was 8th of 9 qualified AL 3B, and 14th of 21 amongst those qualified in MLB. Sizemore was 12th of 17 in MLB. I realize you cited ZR, but I thought it was worth noting. http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif