Bobby Abreu

[Gopher74]

Just curious as to what might be the consensus on Abreu over here.

 

To me, he seems to be exactly what this offense needs, and what Doug Melvin was talking about when he suggested that this team needs to improve it's OBP.

 

His OBP has been over .400 9 of the last 11 years(.393 in 01 and .369 last year), he's got good speed(25 SB's in 07, 30, 31, 4 the prior 3 years), and while he's certainly not going to come cheap, I do think that he could be had for a reasonable price.

 

To me he beats the other options that are out there, most of which frankly I don't see as being realistic.

Tori Hunter-I don't think he's really an offensive upgrade overall than Hall. Certainly a defensive upgrade however. But he had a career year last year,before that, he's been a pedestrian OF'er. A .270/.330 25 type guy. Good, but not great. Not for 15+ a year.

 

Andrew Jones-I don't think he's lost anything defensively, but he was awful offensively and is the exact opposite of what we want offensively.

Aaron Rowand-Again, I don't feel good going after a highly overrated defensive player(but hey, at least he smashes into walls) and a guy who's going to put up good offensive numbers every other year.

 

So IMO, that leaves two options. Bobby Abreu and Mike Cameron.

 

Abreu to me could push this lineup from one of the top 3-4 in the NL to THEE best. Slide him into that number 2 hole, move Hardy to either 8th where he seemed to excel last year, or down to 6th behind Hart and in front of Hall.

But he'd get on base in front of Prince and Braun. He can steal bags still pretty effectively. And after just being on base in front of Braun and Prince, one of the best things that I think he'd be able to do would be give Weeks plenty of chances to steal some bases of his own. Abreu has always taken nearly 4.5 pitches per PA. I'd think that would bode VERY well for Rickie Weeks, and I think he could end up with 35+ stolen bases assuming good health.

 

Just think about sliding him in there;

Weeks-2B

Abreu-LF

Braun-3B

Prince-1B

Hart-RF

Hall-CF

Estrada-C

Hardy-SS

 

I could see 3 years and 30 million, or 2 years at 21 or 22 with an option for a third year at 13 million and a 1.5 million dollar buyout. That way you pay him 22.5-23.5 over 2 years and he doesn't run into the young guys deals, and he doesn't block LaPorta.

 

 

And the other option would be Mike Cameron. I love Cameron, and think if you get him out of Shea and Petco that he could be a better offensive player than his numbers would suggest. I think you'd get a similar hitter to what Tori Hunter is likely to be, and honestly, I don't think he's that much worse than Hunter defensively. He's a GG caliber CF'er, good power, good speed.

 

And where you'd have to spend probably at least 5 years 80 million on Hunter(and likely 90 million) I think you could get Cameron for 2 years 15 million.

 

Finally, my last idea would be Moises Alou. You'd clearly be taking a risk, and you'd have to cover yourself with guys like Gross and Dillon, but I think that'd be fine. Alou's still a VERY good hitter as he proved this year, and I think if you only got 100 games out of him as long as he was strong come Sept/Oct, he could be a big addition for us. You could hit him 5th behind Prince and Hart 2nd.

 

Obviously the last two are a distant 2nd and 3rd to Abreu, who I have a feeling that Melvin will make a run at.

 

Let me know what you think.

[pogokat]

Abreu has been the topic of desire for the last few years...he's been talked about quite a bit as the perfect two hitter for this team

[brettac1]

I think the Yankees will pick up his option, actually.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree with that Brett. And if they don't it's likely his cost will be too high - some big market team would extend any potential deal a year or two long enough that it'd be too much of a risk for us, I think. I don't think Abreu will have to settle for anything less than 4 years after putting together another solid, OBP fueled campaign in 2007. But don't get me wrong, if there's the chance at getting him, I'm all for it - even at the expense of his putrid D.

[endaround]

Not sure where you get this great 2007 for Abreu from. His line was .283/.369/.445. Thats an ISP of 162 which is a huge warning sign. Few players can keep up such a high OBP over BA with mediocre power. Outside of Giles who maybe dampened by San Diego, really no one I can think off can do it.

[dadofandrew]

He has a great eye, that's how. He'd certainly be my #1 guy, but some idiot will probably give him 6y/$90M

[monkeyman343434]

his team option is for $16 million this year, i doubt the brewers would be able to afford him in any possible manner, although i agree he'd fit perfectly on the team, either hitting 2nd in front of braun, or maybe 5th behind fielder

[And That]

If the Yankees pick up his option and then trade him and a lot of cash to us for something (I have no idea what), that would be the only way I'd take him. He'll get way too much cash in free agency, and I'm not sure how many good years he has left. Would be awesome to see Abreu in right, Hart in center and Hall in left, though.

 

Edit: What worries me about him is that he took under 100 walks for the first time since '98, had a second straight sub-20 HR season, stole his fewest bases since '03, and while he's never had a mind-blowing OPS+, his '07 campaign was his worst since his rookie season. For a year, sure. For more than that... no.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not sure where you get this great 2007 for Abreu from. His line was .283/.369/.445. Thats an ISP of 162 which is a huge warning sign. Few players can keep up such a high OBP over BA with mediocre power. Outside of Giles who maybe dampened by San Diego, really no one I can think off can do it.

Who said anything about great? All I said was "solid."

 

[crewcrazy]

I wouldn't mind him as a stopgap until LaPorta is ready to hit in the majors, but anything long-term scares me, since it seems like he's been on a steady decline. His lack of power doesn't concern me much since the Brewers already have plenty of power everywhere else, but the only reason the Brewers would be acquiring him would be to get on base, and he hasn't been doing that as well as he usually has. If Doug could get the 100+ walk Bobby Abreu, I'd be all for it. Unfortunately, there's no guarantee on that.

[endaround]

The point about the lack of power is that its a signal that his OBP could take a huge dive. The guys with the best OBP can kill the ball. Now if the Yankees pick up his option and trade him to the Brewers for Vargas and Estrada, no problem. But if its for more than deadweight or if its a free agent signing then you have a decent amount of risk attached.

[Gopher74]

his team option is for $16 million this year, i doubt the brewers would be able to afford him in any possible manner, although i agree he'd fit perfectly on the team, either hitting 2nd in front of braun, or maybe 5th behind fielder

Yea, but that option comes from several years ago when he was hitting over .300, with an OBP well over .400, stealing 25-30 bases.

 

I don't know how much his option number has to do with what he may sign for next year...other than if the Yankees pick it up, which I don't think they will.

 

I do think it's possible that some team might go ahead and offer him that extra year or two.

 

[Gopher74]

Not sure where you get this great 2007 for Abreu from. His line was .283/.369/.445. Thats an ISP of 162 which is a huge warning sign. Few players can keep up such a high OBP over BA with mediocre power. Outside of Giles who maybe dampened by San Diego, really no one I can think off can do it.

Well, he's done it pretty much his entire career so far, so at some point I think you just have to say, this is who he is.

 

[endaround]

No he didn't. He didn't have great OBP with no power. He had great power. The questions is whether that power is gone.

 

Abreu's ISP by year:

 

1998 .185

1999 .214

2000 .238

2001 .253

2002 .213

2003 .168

2004 .242

2005 .189

2006 .164

2007 .162

[Gopher74]

No he didn't. He didn't have great OBP with no power. He had great power. The questions is whether that power is gone.

 

Abreu's ISP by year:

 

1998 .185

1999 .214

2000 .238

2001 .253

2002 .213

2003 .168

2004 .242

2005 .189

2006 .164

2007 .162

Home Runs/OBP by year.

98-17/.409

99-20/.446

00-25/.416

01-31/.393

02-20/.413

03-20/.409

04-30/.428

05-24/.405

06-15/.424

07-16/.369

 

None of those are "great" power years. A couple are very good. I'd call 30 HR's very good, but not great.

 

So he's never been a great HR hitter, but he's always been a great OBP guy.

He struggled a little this last year as compared to the rest of his career, but he still put up a .305 BA, .390 OBP, and a .920 OPS after the break.

[pogokat]

he's using IsoP because it shows the total of abreu's extra-base hits, not just his hr's

[Gopher74]

he's using IsoP because it shows the total of abreu's extra-base hits, not just his hr's

 

No, I understand that, but the point I got from him talking about how "the guys with great OBP's are the guys who can kill the ball" was how pitchers fear big power hitters. That's directly related to HR's IMO. And even if it's doubles, he did have 40 doubles this year.

 

I just think some of the more obscure stats have a place, but to use them almost exclusively misses the mark IMO.

 

If you're talking about a pitcher nibbling with a guy, look at HR's. It directly leads to the fear aspect.

 

If you use ISP...well, I don't think that goes to the heart of the argument.

[TooLiveBrew]

As a general rule, end is correct. However, there's Reggie Willits, Brian Roberts, Kevin Millar, Dan Johnson, and the aforementioned Brian Giles to consider. The player that doesn't mash and still has a high OBP is not a myth, he's just hard to come by.

 

If you use ISP...well, I don't think that goes to the heart of the argument.

 

Please describe how it doesn't.

[Gopher74]

As a general rule, end is correct. However, there's Reggie Willits, Brian Roberts, Kevin Millar, Dan Johnson, and the aforementioned Brian Giles to consider. The player that doesn't mash and still has a high OBP is not a myth, he's just hard to come by.

 

If you use ISP...well, I don't think that goes to the heart of the argument.

 

Please describe how it doesn't.

I thought I just did. He was talking about how the hitters with high OBP's are the most "feared" hitters, the most feared power hitters. I don't think pitchers look at ISP's before deciding to nibble, or not give in.

 

Either way, I don't think ISP plays into it. I think it's a product of Abreu's good eye.

[And That]

As a general rule, end is correct. However, there's Reggie Willits, Brian Roberts, Kevin Millar, Dan Johnson, and the aforementioned Brian Giles to consider. The player that doesn't mash and still has a high OBP is not a myth, he's just hard to come by.

 

If you use ISP...well, I don't think that goes to the heart of the argument.

 

Please describe how it doesn't.

I thought I just did. He was talking about how the hitters with high OBP's are the most "feared" hitters, the most feared power hitters. I don't think pitchers look at ISP's before deciding to nibble, or not give in.

 

Either way, I don't think ISP plays into it. I think it's a product of Abreu's good eye.

Would you rather have a guy with 20 HR and 10 doubles, or a guy with 15 HR and 50 doubles?

 

[TooLiveBrew]

"The guys with the best OBP can kill the ball."

 

Gopher - that was what endaround said (post #4). You created the "most feared hitters" tag. High ISP = killing the ball.

[Gopher74]

As a general rule, end is correct. However, there's Reggie Willits, Brian Roberts, Kevin Millar, Dan Johnson, and the aforementioned Brian Giles to consider. The player that doesn't mash and still has a high OBP is not a myth, he's just hard to come by.

 

If you use ISP...well, I don't think that goes to the heart of the argument.

 

Please describe how it doesn't.

I thought I just did. He was talking about how the hitters with high OBP's are the most "feared" hitters, the most feared power hitters. I don't think pitchers look at ISP's before deciding to nibble, or not give in.

 

Either way, I don't think ISP plays into it. I think it's a product of Abreu's good eye.

Would you rather have a guy with 20 HR and 10 doubles, or a guy with 15 HR and 50 doubles?

 

That's not and never was the argument.

 

He talked about how Abreu walked because he was more "feared", or at least suggested it. And how about 16 HR's, 40 DBL's and 5 triples? I'd think that'd still be a pretty "feared" hitter, so the 20/10 or 15/50 example doesn't work because Abreu's more of the latter.

[pogokat]

no, he said that there was a corrrelation between power and on base skills...everything else has come from you...and i don't think you can really deny this argument...besides, just using hr's as your basis for "fear" makes me wonder why feared power hitters like andre dawson, jorge bell, geoff jenkins, bill hall, tony batista, dave kingman, etc. can't take a walk...

 

end is right here...isp has a very high correlation with on base skills...abreu's decline is troubling, although i stil think he'll be a .360-.380 obp gy, so i'm not as worrried about it as he is...

[Gopher74]

no, he said that there was a corrrelation between power and on base skills...everything else has come from you...and i don't think you can really deny this argument...besides, just using hr's as your basis for "fear" makes me wonder why feared power hitters like andre dawson, jorge bell, geoff jenkins, bill hall, tony batista, dave kingman, etc. can't take a walk...

 

end is right here...isp has a very high correlation with on base skills...abreu's decline is troubling, although i stil think he'll be a .360-.380 obp gy, so i'm not as worrried about it as he is...

The guys with the best OBP can kill the ball.

 

I guess I took some liberties with what he said. I took this statement to mean that he thought it was a result, or at least partially a result of "power".

 

.besides, just using hr's as your basis for "fear" makes me wonder why feared power hitters like andre dawson, jorge bell, geoff jenkins, bill hall, tony batista, dave kingman, etc. can't take a walk...

 

I don't know. I'd be the wrong person to ask. I'm not the one making this argument. I'm the one trying to find out what endaround meant by "kill the ball" exactly.

 

And I'm the one who argued that hitting HR's DIDN'T equate directly to high OBP's. So again, I'm not sure why I'm the one to ask.

 

end is right here...isp has a very high correlation with on base skills...abreu's decline is troubling, although i stil think he'll be a .360-.380 obp gy, so i'm not as worrried about it as he is...

 

Well, last year he had a OBP well over .400. Generally you need multiple years for a decline. One year is a dip.

[TooLiveBrew]

Generally you need multiple years for a decline.

He's referring to endaround's list of ISP, not Abreu's OBP.