What do we do with Escobar?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Escobar had a pretty good year in our system by playing great defense and hitting for average, but with Hardy on the Brewers, where does he project? Perhaps he is just going to be a utility player, but I think his name is going to come up in trade talks this winter to get some MLB relievers.

[JJHardy7]

I would imagine the Brewers will keep him another year or two. Hardy has been hurt a few times in the bigs and Escobar is only 20 -- he will be 21 in December. He only played in 62 games in AA, so hopefully his on base percentage will grow as he grows in the system.

 

I think a lot of it depends on where the Brewers feel Hardy is at -- I know some here don't think his range is all that great and how will he perform with the bat? Was this year skewed because of his start?

 

I personally would keep him and hopefully he continues to develop and it's not a bad problem to have next year. If the right offer comes along, I'm sure he could be a pretty big piece to a trade.

[LouisEly]

With Brent Brewer not too far behind Escobar, I wouldn't hesitate at all to include Escobar in a deal to solidify the bullpen or upgrade catcher. Same with Iribarren - Weeks isn't going anywhere, and they have a host of 2B (Crabbe down to Farris) to develop as depth.

[Kevbo74]

Brewer is a little far away, and I'd hesitate to automatically replace Escobar with him.

I don't know what the plans are for a utility infielder, but I'd imagine whoever that is could get alot of work.

Alcides is a great defensive shortstop who can hit. Our utility guys last season were Counsell and Graffanino.

I'd have to keep Escobar for a while yet, his value in that position could be huge. I wonder if there's a chance of him getting some time at 2b and maybe 3rd in Huntsville next year? He'd be incredibly valueable if he could spot for weeks, hardy, and braun. Never know who we might need to cover for any amount of time, and I don't see another utility infielder around here.

That brings another question: Who would that be to start next year? Not having Bill Hall in that role, and not having a decent replacement for Billy for a whole year now, is sorta scary.

[RyDogg66]

JJ's a fan favorite, but it might make sense to let him go if the drop off from Hardy to Escobar is small, especially in 3 years and if, as expected Escobar's defense is superior. We need to find all the money we can to keep Fielder, Hart and Braun - or as many as we can.

 

The way I could see things shaking out is like this:

 

2008 - Escobar is 21 in AAA - Counsell in Majors

2009 - Escobar is 22 starts in AAA, called up to Majors in June

2010 - Escobar is 23 Full time utility

2011 - Escobar is 24 Starting SS

2012 - Age 25 -League Min salary

2013 - Age - 26 - 1st year arb

2014 - Age 27 -2nd year arb

2015 - Age 28 3rd year arb

2016 - Potential FA

.

[kgbaseball]

Let's face it: Alcides is probably the next Ramon Santiago. He's not going to get on base with any regularity or hit for ANY power. His only asset is going to be his glove.

[sbrylski]

I've never understood the love Escobar gets on the Power 50. He looks like a career backup at best. Even if he ever hits for a 700 OPS in the bigs, he still will need a gold glove to justify him as a long term solution.

[sbrylski]

Or the Pirates can have him for $7 mil a year...

[gregmag]

Let's face it: Alcides is probably the next Ramon Santiago. He's not going to get on base with any regularity or hit for ANY power. His only asset is going to be his glove.

 

 

The thing Escobar has going for him is that he played in AA at 20 and did some things well. That's why he's a prospect. If he had another two or three years on him, he'd be Callix Crabbe. He has time and a chance to grow his skills; not that he'll necessarily add power, but at 20 he has a decent chance to do so. Anyway, with a guy this young you can't really start with the "Let's face it -- this is what he is" declarations. Well, you can, but IMHO nobody can project such a young player with that much confidence.

Greg.

[And That]

Escobar's biggest problem as a player right now is that he doesn't draw enough walks. His best walk rate as a professional was during his first season, when he walked once per every 11.6 ABs. That slipped to once for every 27.4 ABs this season - unless you're hitting north of .310 or have tremendous power, that isn't going to cut it. Beyond working on his plate discipline, Alcides also needs to keep working on bunting and not overswinging.

 

That said, Alcides doesn't turn 21 for another few months, and could well make AAA next year. The walk rate is a problem now, but there's a chance it'll get a lot better as he gets better at recognizing good pitches and becomes a more poised, stronger hitter. As for his power, he doesn't project to hit many home runs, but he's not as bereft of power as some in the organization. His bat speed is sufficient enough to be able to drive the ball into the gaps, and he's also fast enough to turn the occasional single into a double.

 

He's a very good prospect because of his glove, but he's hardly a shoe-in to be a crappy offensive player at the major league level. With Hardy already in Milwaukee, Escobar will have ample time over the next few years to hone his skills at the plate both in the minors, and then as an apprentice in the bigs. If he'll eventually supplant Hardy or be used as trade bait is another matter, but he's still a valuable prospect. Don't write off his bat just because of his glove.

[kgbaseball]

Here's 9 guys just like Escobar at the AA or High A level. A player like Alcides isn't a rare thing.

 

 

AA (Mets) Jose Coronado, 21, SS

AA (Yanks) Reegie Corona, 20, SS

AA (A's) Gregorio Petit, 22, 2b/SS

AA (Yanks) Ramiro Pena, 22, SS

A (Cubs) Jonathan Mota, 20, SS

AA (Reds) Jose Castro, 20, SS

A (Mets) Emmanuel Garcia, 20, 2b

A (Yanks) Eduardo Nunez, 20, SS

A(WSox) Robert Valido, 22, SS

 

Then you have guys like Elvis Andrus (19), Carlos Triunfel (17), Ivan DeJesus (20), and Hainley Statia (21) that are the same age as Alcides or younger that have already shown the ability to hit for power, and thus they are the bigger prospects. Sure, it's easy to say "Alcides can/will fill out and start hitting for power because he's only 20," but his 155lb frame suggests otherwise. The odds are stacked against him, and that's why I put him in the Ramon Martinez/Ramon Santiago mold.

 

Granted, I'd love to see him succeed with the terrible infield defense the Brewers currently sport, but who knows if that'll ever happen.

[And That]

Sure, it's easy to say "Alcides can/will fill out and start hitting for power because he's only 20," but his 155lb frame suggests otherwise. The odds are stacked against him, and that's why I put him in the Ramon Martinez/Ramon Santiago mold.

I don't think anyone has said Alcides will fill out and/or start hitting for power. My point with him is that he puts a good enough swing on the ball to where he can get the ball into the gaps, unlike a guy like Tony Gwynn who pretty much has to hope the ball lands where someone isn't. And I guess the odds are technically stacked against virtually every minor league player to a degree, but Escobar is 20 years old and is still a pretty bare canvas. What he has going for him is defense, some speed, and the ability to carry a decent batting average. Sure, some guys have a lot more, but many guys have a lot less.

[sbrylski]

Don't write off his bat just because of his glove.

 

I'm writing off his bat right now because it sucks, not because he has a good glove. It seems like because he has a good glove and some time, people are saying he is likely to develop a bat. There are a bunch of young players that can't hit much but are solid glovemen. It doesn't mean he won't develop a bat, but I wouldn't have him rated as high as he is on the power 50. I see guys below him much more likely to have a ML career, a bunch of them.

[And That]

Don't write off his bat just because of his glove.

 

I'm writing off his bat right now because it sucks

That's a pretty strong statement. As a 20 year old, he hit .325 in the FSL (albeit in a repeat season), one of the most notorious pitchers leagues in the minors. In his career, he's hit .280/.316/.348, with about half of his ABs coming in Brevard and Huntsville, and in each stop he was easily one of the youngest guys in the league. He has a quick, line-drive swing. The other aspects of his game have been discussed ad nauseum. I'm no Escobar apologist - I kind of hope he'll be traded while his value is relatively high as a prospect - but to say he's a sucky hitter is an overstatement.

 

[Mass Haas]

Sure, it's easy to say "Alcides can/will fill out and start hitting for power because he's only 20," but his 155lb frame suggests otherwise.

Escobar is listed at 175 by the Brewers now on their Instructional Camp depth chart, although MiLB.com still has him at 155, granted.

Among the Power 50 editors, I rank Escobar (4th overall) higher than either colbyjack or pogokat. His AFL season at age 18 two years ago is still clear in my mind, but it's more than that. You don't hear a single Doug Melvin, Gord Ash, Reid Nichols, Scott Martens, etc., interview discussing the kids, without Escobar being gushed over (or at least prominently mentioned) at some point. It's consistent and it's for a reason.

[brosto1]

Escobar got good reviews on the Baseball America prospect list for the FSL. It isn't just Power 50 love he gets, he also gets some love from outside of the organization and its fans.

[biedergb]

Alcides cannot be much worse than a guy like Ryan Theriot, Orlando Cabrera, or David Eckstein -- good contact, good glove, limited power -- or a former Cubs prospect like Ronny Cedeno, and all these guys were starters, so while Alcides may not profile as the next Arod, I think a starting caliber SS has value.

[Team Canada]

Was it O'Brien that called Escobar the best SS he's ever seen?

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Is it just me or does Escobar have Jason Bartlett written all over him? I'm not sure if that is a good thing or bad thing.

[And That]

Is it just me or does Escobar have Jason Bartlett written all over him? I'm not sure if that is a good thing or bad thing.

Escobar is a ton better on defense. I'm not going to look up the defensive metrics for Bartlett, but I watched him play about 40 games this year, and he seemed very average there to me. He makes his share of mental mistakes. Bartlett is decent at the plate. Doesn't hit for much power, but he draws some walks and he runs well. Basically, he's your stereotypical Minnesota Twin. He won't make your team better, but if surrounded by bigger bats, he's just fine. I'd be happy if Escobar wound up like that, though he has a higher ceiling.

[kgbaseball]

I agree with that Bartlett analysis. He makes a bunch of mental mistakes, and Gardenhire has called him out for it in the past.

[dadofandrew]

Bartlett is a nice SS, I hope Escobar is that good. What is Alcides, 21 and in AA? Not like we need to make room for him.

[Mass Haas]

The fact is that Escobar can get in all of his 2008 game time before the Brewers even need to add him to the 40-man roster. They could even fully evaluate him for all of 2009-2011 before he even has to be in a Milwaukee uniform for good in 2012.

 

Now obviously, they'll know before that Hardy's situation (eligible for free agency after 2010), and I don't expect Alcides to spend another four full seasons in the minors, although technically he could while still being under Brewer control. But it'd be foolish to part with him this offseason unless Brewer brass believes he's maxed out now, which I doubt very much.

 

So just sit back and enjoy watching him (hopefully) develop further. This would be a much more pressing discussion two years from now, with Hardy entering a potential walk season, and Escobar two seasons further along.

[LouisEly]

My point with him is that he puts a good enough swing on the ball to where he can get the ball into the gaps, unlike a guy like Tony Gwynn who pretty much has to hope the ball lands where someone isn't.

 

In his career, he's hit .280/.316/.348, with about half of his ABs coming in Brevard and Huntsville, and in each stop he was easily one of the youngest guys in the league.

 

1) 2/3rds of Gwynn's ABs were at Huntsville

B) Gwynn never played rookie ball, played a half-season at A, then jumped A+ right to AA. He was 21 his first year at AA, where Escobar was 20 this year. Not much of a difference.

3) In 249 ABs this year, Gwynn had 6 triples. Escobar had seven triples in over twice as many ABs. Don't you have to hit the ball into the gaps in order to get triples?

 

To say that Escobar can get the ball into gaps, whereas Gwynn can't, is a bit of a stretch.

[And That]

To say that Escobar can get the ball into gaps, whereas Gwynn can't, is a bit of a stretch.

Gwynn is faster than Escobar, which explains the triples. Escobar just simply has a better swing than Gwynn, which isn't really that difficult to do.