What happened to Chris Capuano in 2007? (Merged: not as bad as it might seem)

[Ennder]

The following is a chart of outcomes for Chris Capuano over the past 3 years as a percentage of plate appearances.

 

Year	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	GB	FIP	ERA
2005	949	.148	.052	.002	.033	.096	.185	37.7	4.84	3.99
2006	936	.141	.071	.002	.031	.050	.186	39.9	4.09	4.03
2007	648	.168	.052	.003	.031	.080	.199	43.3	4.53	5.09

Looking at this chart I think people are a bit overboard on how bad Capuano has been this season. Everything about this season has been better than in 2005 other than his ERA. Better GB%, better K rate, better BB rate, same power numbers. The only thing different at all is he gave up 13 singles more than in 2005 which is almost for sure varience/defense.

 

I had hoped he'd keep the gains in BB rate from 2006 but it seems to be a statistical outlier at this point. He however has shown gains in K rate and GB% and allowed fewer extra base hits than in 2006 which are positivies.

 

For all the people who thought Capuano was the team ace after 2005 he has not thrown the ball any worse in 2007 and probably has been even better. Just please keep this in mind going into next season when he is hopefully our #5 starter.

[Brewer Fever]

I'd be fine with him as our #5 starter next year. In an odd way despite the horrible results this year, he still feels like someone who you feel pretty darn great about having as a number 5. Very well researched, btw. To see that his numbers were better this year in every meaningful category save ERA than in 2005 is amazing.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Yeah it really is too bad that Cappy had such a bad luck year. The law of averages will kick in and Cappy will be back to a 4 ERA starter next year, IMO.

[rluzinski]

Sheets, Yo, Suppan, Cappy and Villy. I can't wait.

[brewmann04]

maybe try Bush in his old closer role ?

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, interesting idea, brewmann. I can honestly say that never crossed my mind. It seems like it'd be eerily similar to the Cubs employment of Dempster. Nice one.

[dadofandrew]

I would tend to agree with Russ. I have Bush as the #6 SP, and Parra as the #7, but both could well be in the bullpen.

[kgbaseball]

Thank you for this chart. He's been the victim of some bad luck this year, and he should be able to rebound next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

hopefully our defense can rebound/recover

[Ennder]

keep in mind he had a lot of luck in 2005, that ERA should have been in the 4.50 range. I still think he's a 4.50ish ERA pitcher with a little more upside.

[brettac1]

I agree with that assessment, since it seems like his '06 BB rate was the outlier. Still, a 4.50 ERA guy in the 5th spot of a rotation is great to have.

 

The thing is, the defense needs to improve a great deal, and I'm not overly optimistic that will happen.

[adambr2]

Probably one of the biggest contributors to our failure to make the playoffs this season was the mysterious decline of our normally trustworthy southpaw in the rotation. Trying to find a reason for what happened to him this year, and looked over the possibilities:

 

- Maybe he's just not that good.

 

No, I don't think this is it. He was an All-Star in 2006. He was among the league leaders in quality starts in 2005 and 2006, that's reliability. You don't have more quality starts than almost any pitcher for 2 straight years just by accident. He's not an overpowering pitcher, never will be, but when he is locating his pitches, he's a very solid starter. The strikeout numbers were still there in 2007, the ERA and wins were not.

 

- Maybe he just wore down.

 

No, he tore it up in April, and then beginning in May, he sputtered for the rest of the season. You don't wear down in May. Heck, some pitchers don't even begin to find themselves until May (see Davis, Douglas).

 

- Maybe he was injured

 

Other than that one injury in June, it didn't appear to be the case. Although he once had a history of injury problems, he gave us 220 solid innings in both of 2005 and 2006. I don't think we need to worry about him being injury prone anymore.

 

Bottom line, whatever happened to Capuano in 2007 seems to be a mystery. It's not like he was absolutely unusable (5.10 ERA isn't as bad as some people make him out to be), but obviously we all expected more. Maybe he developed a mechanical flaw in his delivery. Maybe he was tipping his pitches. Maybe it's just horribly bad luck. I just don't think that suddenly, one day in May, Capuano forgot how to pitch well. It would be nice if there were some cut and dry answers, but I just don't know that there are. For that reason, I think he'll get every chance to earn a spot in the rotation in 2008, and we'll be hoping he can regain '05 and '06 form.

[Jay Zahn]

Capuano and the rotation aren't that much of a concern to me. It might not have had a lot of peak value, but the rotation was extremely deep and really good enough to win. They really need to trade at least one of those guys for relief help or convert them to the pen.

[Thurston Fluff]

Two things I don't like about Cappy going forward. One his stuff just isn't that good. He's a control pitcher with a bad defense behind him. Personally not a combination I like. Second while his numbers were much better the past two years he was not a good second half pitcher either year. Bush on the other hand is about the same, stuff wise, as Cappy but if memory serves was a better pitcher the last two years in September. If they had Cappy as the #5 I'd be fine with that because I think he will be better. I just don't think he ever was or will be an true allstar the entire year. If a trade partner wanted Cappy over Bush or Vargus I wouldn't care if he was the one traded because I think we have enough of that level pitcher already.

[sbrylski]

His stuff just isn't that good. He's a control pitcher with a bad defense behind him.

 

Capuano had a 8.07 K/9 as a starter last season. That's good for 17th among starters in the entire MLB. He had a 3.40 BB/9, good for 62nd in the MLB. I'd say he's more of a stuff pitcher, and I don't see how we can improve too much on this K rate. His K/BB was 2.37, good for 41st. Other than K batters and not BB them, what else can a pitcher really control? He was 42nd in HR rate.

 

Second while his numbers were much better the past two years he was not a good second half pitcher either year.

 

Possibly, but first half games count just as much as second half games. And the discrepancy in his FIP from half to half (.85) isn't as bad as his ERA difference (1.34), so some of the difference can likely be chalked up to some statistical variation and not just poor pitching.

[TerraceReserved]

Cappy's LOB% has also played a huge role in his declining ERA. It's gone from 77.3% in 2005, to 72.4% in 2006, to finally a 68.1% this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1701_P_season_full_0_20071001.png

That along with the Brewers horrid defense has been the source of his rising ERA. His BABIP risen from .291, .308, and finally a ridiculous .340 in 07. This is a result of the defense being very, very bad.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1701_P_season_full_7_20071001.png

Just a quick look at the stats posted by ennder and his BABIP and LOB% tell you all you need to know about Cappy's struggles this year.

[dadofandrew]

S06 with a very good post. Cappy is not as bad as his W/L would have you believe.

[reillymcshane]

Ennder, nice chart. Thanks.

[JohnBriggs12]

I watched the ESPN telecast of Capuano's last start against San Diego. Rick Sutcliffe was not nearly as kind as the Capuano defenders on here. He basically trashed his stuff saying he didn't have movement on his pitches and that the least bit of lost command on his fastball and he's toast because his only other effective pitch is his changeup. He further pointed out that he looked like he lacked confidence on the mound.

 

I've read over and over on here that the 22 straight starts were a statistical anamoly. But in looking at those 22, I could just find 5 where he pitched well enough to have deserved a win and only one of those was in his last 11. But nobody wins all the games they deserve to win either.

 

Guys he just wasn't very good and while I don't think the Brewers would go 0-32 if he started every 5th day next year, he's no better than the 5.2 or so ERA he's posted over the last year and a half and considering his lost confidence, he could be worse.

[homer]

JB, would you admit the defense has at least something to do with it? I mean, Melvin can't see how bad the D is, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Sutcliffe doesn't see it either.

[adambr2]

I watched the ESPN telecast of Capuano's last start against San Diego. Rick Sutcliffe was not nearly as kind as the Capuano defenders on here. He basically trashed his stuff saying he didn't have movement on his pitches and that the least bit of lost command on his fastball and he's toast because his only other effective pitch is his changeup. He further pointed out that he looked like he lacked confidence on the mound.

 

I've read over and over on here that the 22 straight starts were a statistical anamoly. But in looking at those 22, I could just find 5 where he pitched well enough to have deserved a win and only one of those was in his last 11. But nobody wins all the games they deserve to win either.

 

Guys he just wasn't very good and while I don't think the Brewers would go 0-32 if he started every 5th day next year, he's no better than the 5.2 or so ERA he's posted over the last year and a half and considering his lost confidence, he could be worse.

First of all, it's true that nobody wins all the games they deserve to win, they don't always end up losing the games that they deserve to lose, either. Sometimes you give up 5 runs in 5 IP, but get bailed out by hot swinging bats. Cappy never did. There are also those borderline outings like 6.1 IP, 4 R, which, while it isn't good, can put your team in position to win.

 

Again, I don't think that Capuano just suddenly "forgot" how to pitch after being a solid starter for 2 years, and most of his splits don't suggest that, either. Defense was probably definitely a factor and I would like to point out that trashing Capuano right now when his career value is at an all-time low, probably isn't the best business decision.

 

Historically, he's been an extremely good first half pitcher who tends to fade in the second half. Unfortunately, his good first half only lasted a month this year. I'd like to see if he can duplicate his first half success from '05 and '06 in '08. If he does, and we don't see him as a future mainstay in the rotation, he could be a very valuable trading chip in July.

[dadofandrew]

If his pitches were not moving, how did he strike out 8 guys per 9 frames? Rick was just finding a reason to justify the losing streak, just like Bill does when a hitter tries to pull an outside pitch and it goes through the 5/6 hole...he'll say it "got too much of the plate". Announcers simply have a hard time telling fans bad luck plays a big part in the outcome of any single game, so they make stuff up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Personally, I think Capuano might have more value as a reliever. As Al pointed out even in a bad season he still fanned a good number (usually with his changeup from what I saw) and he often did fine the first time or two through an order. Generally his command broke down in innings 4 through 6.

[Roscoe Chill]

Well, you can assume his pitches had a lot of movement based on how many Ks he had per nine innings. Of course if you watched him pitch...

[sbrylski]

Personally, I think Capuano might have more value as a reliever. As Al pointed out even in a bad season he still fanned a good number (usually with his changeup from what I saw) and he often did fine the first time or two through an order. Generally his command broke down in innings 4 through 6.

 

Last season:

Innings 1-3, 9.5% BB

Innings 4-6, 6.6% BB

 

Over his career its 7.7% to 8.0%, so pretty close to the same.

 

And over his career, he's only struck out about 1% less in innings 4-6 compared to 1-3.

 

The stats don't suggest to me he's better as a one or two inning guy, but they do show that he's not really a 100 pitch guy. 80-90, and then he goes downhill a bit.