Washington Nationals - Good Matchup

[Gopher74]

Yea, hard to imagine a starting pitchers numbers to improve with a move from the rotation to the bullpen.

 

That'd never happen.

 

Then why would you want Vargas in the pen over Bush? Bush has put up far better numbers than Vargas in his career, the beginning of which was in the AL. Looking at Bush's age and track record, I feel that this season was a bit of an outlier. So, assuming bullpen-Vargas and bullpen-Bush would both improve, why would one rather have Vargas instead of Bush?

A-I think Bush will bring us back more in return.

And

B-I think that Vargas is better suited to throw out of the pen. I've moved past the point of being fooled by his peripheral numbers. He doesn't pitch well out of the stretch, and he doesn't pitch well with runners on.

 

Vargas on the other hand has two good pitches, a fastball that as I said, I think would reach 95 or so out of the pen, and a hard slider that could work as an out pitch.

 

And Bush With Runners ON-.289 BA .334 OBP

Vargas with Runners On-.241 with a .309 OBP

 

Which would you feel better coming in with runners on?

 

[Gopher74]

New owner, new front office....and having a player at one time doesn't exclude you from ever bringing him back. I'm sure the Twins would take Ortiz back, and the Astros Santana.

 

I agree that Vargas being a former Expo is going to have little bearing on the Nationals interest, but the presentation is kind of funny.

 

Which one doesn't belong?

1) Apple - Orange - Banana

2) Santana - Ortiz - Vargas

 

 

By the way, what's his FIP?

 

This season - 5.08

The year before - 4.90

 

Claudio Vargas is likely to have similar value to that of Rod Lopez last season, who netted two mid-level pitching prospects.

First of all, it was obviously a ridiculous comparison, simply pointing out how foolish it is to say that since a team had a player, that automatically disqualifies them from ever re-acquiring him.

 

Second, his value will be significantly higher than that of Rodrigo Lopez last season. Lopez who posted an ERA of 5.90 and went 9-18 vs Vargas who was 11-6 and had a 5.09 ERA(which by the way was 4.73 prior to one start in which he gave up 7 earned in two thirds).

 

Not only that, but he's three and a half years older.

 

I'm certainly not saying we're going to get a superstar in return, however, we could likely package him to a team looking for a 4/5 and get a nice return.

 

However, for the record, I'd rather deal Bush and keep Vargas and use him out of the pen where I think he could be a nice addition. I think as a long man, or a 7th inning guy his velocity would be up to 95-96 and with a good slider, I think he'd be fine.

 

The question is, can you get a better reliever in return for him to a team that wants a starter?

 

 

 

Bush is a much better pitcher, is under Brewer control for three years and is entering his prime. Vargas is set to make $5 million next year, about twice what Bush will make. You don't pay long relief guys with bad numbers that kind of money.

 

How is Vargas set to make twice what he did last year, but Mench is set to make the exact same?

 

[M Skjellyfetti]

Which would you feel better coming in with runners on?

Honestly, neither. I'd rather have Bush either be the long reliever/6th starter or 5th starter next year. I think he'll still be a fine starter as he is entering his prime and has done nothing but succeed prior to this year. I'd rather not pay Vargas an arby salary to come out of the bullpen. He'll be making a decent sum, whatever it is, for a bullpen pitcher that's not a closer.

[Gopher74]

Which would you feel better coming in with runners on?

Honestly, neither. I'd rather have Bush either be the long reliever/6th starter or 5th starter next year. I think he'll still be a fine starter as he is entering his prime and has done nothing but succeed prior to this year. I'd rather not pay Vargas an arby salary to come out of the bullpen. He'll be making a decent sum, whatever it is, for a bullpen pitcher that's not a closer.

Well, the salary aspect of it is a valid point, however, Vargas is very good with runners on.

 

Other numbers;

.221 .288 with RISP for Vargas.

.279 .334 with RISP for Bush

His three years splits

.275 RISP

.289 RISP 2 outs for Bush

.249 RISP

.238 RISP 2 out for Vargas

Vargas is better with runners on and RISP, and again, I think would project much better as a reliever.

 

[dadofandrew]

Varags will make far too much to be in long relief, that's why I expect him to be dealt. Bush will make far less and has the athleticism you would think would translate well to pitching in relief.

 

If Dave is indeed the 6th SP, he'll be the best in baseball, sans a Yo type someone has stashed in AAA.

[pogokat]

Bush was also a closer until toronto converted him to a starter...i think bush is the guy...i'll take the one that doesn't give up many walks any day..especially from a short reliever

[sbrylski]

I agree that the Nationals would be a good target, as Kearns and Cordero in particular would be great acquisitions. However, it is going to take more than what you have proposed to get them, and I agree with whomever said that Parra would be a likely starting point. Cordero alone is likely going to land the Nationals a couple of top prospects at worst.

I knew I shouldn't have even mentioned Cordero in my offer. I did mention it wasn't likely and he could get a couple prospects by himself, but people focused on his name there anyway.

 

But Gwynn himself looked to be enough to land Otsuka at the deadline. Gwynn+Jackson is a package that will be valued by a team or two out there. But again, hard to get a gauge on how much trade value these players, especially Vargas, will have.

 

[Nader Raider Tim]

I agree the Nationals would be a nice team to try and trade with. In the Sheets thead I mentioned that the Nationals are one of the teams I would try and interest in Sheets services. I believe the Nationals are opening a new stadium next year and probably would jump at the opportunity to bring a star pitcher like Sheets to help show the fans they are commited to winning, and putting a quality product on the field.

[Zycho32]

The original proposal is good.... if the Nationals themselves are content with being gutted hollow and are headed for contraction in the next year or so.

 

Kearns, like it or not, is going to cost either an equally talented starter- of which none of the players in our side of the proposal are- or a prospect with a really high ceiling- which is more fickle in this case. Labeling Jackson and Gwynn as such prospects may be a result of drinking the Brew Kool-Aid. I don't even think you could trade Bill Hall for him at this rate.

 

And Cordero will likely cost even more than that on his own.

[JohnBriggs12]

Kearns isn't what I'd want. First, he's righthanded. We've got Weeks, Braun, Hart, Hardy and Hall. Other than Fielder, the only lefthanded bat would be Estrada, and getting another right handed stick forces them to keep Estrada. Yes there's Gross, but I think the Nationals would want him in any deal for Kearns. They shouldn't put themselves in that position.

 

Second, Kearns is a righthanded Jenkins. He's never quite lived up to expectations, has a history of injuries and is owed $13 million over the next two years.

 

I'm not sure there's a match with the Nationals, but the only guy that interests me is Ryan Church.

[TheBrewer]

Maybe I under valued him a smigen, a tiny little bit, but nonetheless. I still say that your not going to get much for him. Maybe Doug will pull something out of his hat and surprize us.. but I'm not counting on it too much

[Oldcity]

Second, Kearns is a righthanded Jenkins. He's never quite lived up to expectations, has a history of injuries and is owed $13 million over the next two years.

Kearns has never quite lived up to expectations because he was expected to be a superstar. Cinci called him up when he was very young, and he hasn't become the big power hitter that they hoped.

However he's still a solid corner outfielder entering his prime, he gets on base and he plays very good defense. He's definitely better than the '06/'07 version of Jenkins, and one of the few options that have been mentioned that would be an upgrade alone over a Gross/Dillon platoon.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

"He's definitely better than the 06/07 version of Jenkins"

 

The same version of Jenkins that outslugged Kearns by 60 points in 2007 while driving in just 10 fewer runs in 167 less AB's? Or the 06 Jenkins who matched Kearns 07 OBP, and also surpassed his 07 slugging? I would also question the assertion that Kearns is "entering his prime". He's had 6 years in the big leagues. Even though he still fairly young, he is what he is, not an up and comer anymore and a .766 OPS for a corner OF making what he makes, says to me he's not really a good value for the money. Maybe if he had taken a big step forward this year, but I don't see it.

 

Now I'm not saying Kearns is a bad player, just that he's not what the Brewers heavy righthanded lineup of sluggers really need. They need a lefthanded bat that's better than what Jenkins was recently. Some think that guy could be Gross. I'm not sure about that so I'd be looking for LH bats first.

[brettac1]

Well, playing in RFK has a way of supressing offensive numbers. It gave up the fewest HR in the league this season.

 

On the road Kearns was solidly over .800, so I would expect no less than an .825 OPS in 2008, moving to a park that gives up something like 40% more homers than RFK.

 

Toss in that he's just turning 28, and plays terrific defense, and he's easily worth what he's getting. He's also had two fairly injury-free seasons in a row (150 and 161 GP in '06 and '07), so that stuff seems to be behind him at this point. I don't really care what a guy's handedness is as long as he can hit, and I think Kearns will.

[And That]

Kearns also kills left handed pitching. Even is he split playing time against righties 50/50 with Gross, you'd probably see a nice spike in his overall output. Along with the aforementioned good defense, he'd be a guy I'd love to have around for a few years as LaPorta gets ready.

[SmartBall]

I read throught the whole thread and I feel that some people are way over-valueing Kearns and the Nats and some people are way over-valueing our guys, but when I look at the deal I see the right-handed half of a platoon in Kearns, think Mench with way better D and someone who isn't alergic to walks. I also see a salary dump by the Nats and a couple of young replacements along with someone who could be a major trade chip for them in the near future. We could have gotten a pretty good haul for Vargas at the break this year, put his first half numbers in RFK and a contender with injury issues would be thrilled to get him. I think an offer of Gwynn, ZachJack, Vargas and a decent toolsy guy like Lorenzo Cain makes sense for for the Nats and for the Brewers.

[dadofandrew]

Kearns certainly would not be brought in to split time with Gross, other than a day off once every 7-10 days. I would guess a LF they pick up would be a LH bat, however.

[foamboy1]

After seeing what it took to land Linebrink, I can't imagine what Cordero might be worth.

 

The price for 27 innings of Linebrink was ridiculous in my opinion.