Washington Nationals - Good Matchup

[sbrylski]

I see the Nationals as having players available that would fill our two greatest needs (OF and RP), so I think we should target these guys in a one-stop shop trade this offseason.

 

The Nats have Austin Kearns, Ryan Church, Wily Mo Pena, Nook Logan, and Ryan Langerhans in their OF. Though, in general, that group isn't great, it is a position of depth they can and should trade from to get more young talent and pitching on the roster. Also, as a non-contending team they should be looking to deal from their bullpen. Luis Ayala, Jon Rauch, and Chad Cordero will probably be considered available. Any one of those three could pitch the 8th or 9th for us next season.

 

Of the OFers, the one that I'd target is Austin Kearns. He is still rather young at age 27, though may be more available because he has a contract that is going to quickly escalate. He's due just $5M next season, but $8M the following and then has a $10M team option with a $1M buyout. Pena has tremendous power potential, but isn't great in the field and doesn't seem the type that'll carry a decent OBP. I'd imagine they'll want to keep him; he's young, cheap, and profiles into a good starter for them in RF as he matures. Church is rather average and likely won't get any better because he is no longer young.

 

Kearns has a decent .360 career OBP, but his power numbers slipped when he was traded to Washington. However, his road splits are pretty solid.

 

2006 - .253 / .378 / .462 / .840

2007 - .301 / .378 / .454 / .832

 

Still not amazing, but I like the solid OBP. And at age 27 next season, he should be entering his prime. If he can put up the aggregate line of ~.275 / .380 / .460 / .840 or better, I'd be totally fine with him sitting in our two-hole.

 

Defensively, Kearns was 2nd in the entire MLB for RFers this season in RZR with a .906. While no defensive stat is prefect, its close enough to tell you he's pretty solid out there. The year before he had a .924 RZR.

 

But is this better than what Gross can provide? Gabe didn't have as great of a season as some seem to think he did. He did very well in 2006 in limited time with his .400 OBP / .908 OPS against RHP, but that was in just 220 PA. This year, he put up a woeful .328 OBP / .788 OPS against RHP in 193 PA. He did get a little unlucky and carried a low BABIP (.261), but he is far from a sure thing even as a platoon partner. If he goes in next season as the "starter", that's going to mean we don't have anyone better behind him, and that won't be very comforting. Also, Kearns is probably an everyday player, though he could be classified as a lefty masher as he carried about a .960 OPS against LHP the last two seasons. In fact, Gross could face tough RHers in a semi-platoon between these two.

 

This would be my offer:

MIL gets: Austin Kearns + Chad Cordero/Luis Ayala/Jon Rauch

WAS gets: Tony Gwynn + Claudio Vargas + Zach Jackson

 

Its really hard to get a gauge on the trade value of both Gwynn and Vargas. Vargas is just a mediocre starter, but there are a lot of teams that don't even have that - like the Nationals. I believe the Nats' new park is still rather spacious, so he could do well there. Gwynn has the obvious name recognition, and is probably looked at as a potential starter by many teams yet. The Nats just need as much young pitching as they can get, so they should like Zach Jack at least a little bit as well. Though it seems like garbage to us, I think that package could net a solid return. I sure hope so anyway, because they are garbage to us. Depending on their worth, we then net the appropriately valued relief pitcher. I'm guessing not Cordero, but I'd be happy with either of the other two. The Nats' could likely trade Cordero alone for two solid prospects.

 

Washington enters 2008 with an OF of Church - Gwynn - Pena / Logan - Langerhans

Milwaukee enters 2008 with an OF of Kearns - Hall - Hart / Gross - Rottillonix

 

 

Wow, long post, and I didn't even go into detail on the relievers. I do think we match up well with Washington on the trade front, but Kearns does appear to be a bit of a fence player so I'll expect some to dismiss this idea. What do you think?

[igor67]

Kearns pretty much fits the profile of the type of player I'd be looking for. OK power very good OBP plays good defense. Honestly the player I'd really be looking for is a healthy Corey Koskie and moving Braun to LF. It is not to be however. This particular scenario is too light on value from us particularly for Cordero.

[Gopher74]

Yea, I'd love the idea of picking up Kearns, and to throw in another good reliever as a possibility to make this particular trade more likely, how about Schroeder? He had good numbers this year, solid whip, solid stuff. Given our package, may be the most likely going getting dealt. Otherwise I think we'd have to beef up our offer a touch more.

Hell, I'd throw in Dave Bush instead of Vargas which I think the Nats would like since Bush's big problem is the long ball, and if he could cut down on those(that's where their park comes in) I could see him back sporting an ERA in the mid to low 4's. Plus he's cheaper, and I'd rather have Vargas as a reliever next year anyway. I think he projects to be a better relief pitcher than Bush.

 

So maybe Bush, Gwynn, Mench, Jackson for Cordero, Kearns.

 

And we're still likely going to have to pony up a little more, but it'd look to be a good jumping off point.

[endaround]

Thing is the Nats got rid of Vargas once. After seeing Vargas upclose once, its hard to say they'll be itching to get him back.

[twobrewers]

This would be my offer:

MIL gets: Austin Kearns + Chad Cordero/Luis Ayala/Jon Rauch

WAS gets: Tony Gwynn + Claudio Vargas + Zach Jackson

It's not a bad offer, but you are right - the Nationals are a long ways away from competing. So I doubt they will want to pay Vargas the salary he is going to require. (Why would you pay a #4 starter 3.5 million when you can't compete anyways?)

I think Zach Jackson is PERFECT for them. He could be a #5 starter, very cheap, and might develop. At the very least he will eat innings for a poor team.

 

I think Vargas is better suited for a playoff caliber team that is in desperate need of a #5 pitcher. (Like Philly)

[homer]

I really think you are overvaluing Jackson and undervaluing Cordero. I don't see the Nats falling for that trade unless a better looking prospect was added in the mix like Escobar, Brantley, Ford or Gillespie.

[Katuluu]

A possible #5 starter with limited upside isn't perfect for a rebuilding team. If you ant to get Cordero and Kearns you will have to give up at least 2 high level prospects, with at least one contributing right away. I'd say Parra + Gwynn + Gillespie could make them think hard about the trade, but even that might not be enough.

[twobrewers]

A possible #5 starter with limited upside isn't perfect for a rebuilding team.

I think you are missing my point. Zach Jackson could be a #5 starter for a few years to come for the Nationals and barely cost them thing. (Salary wise) They would be way more interested in Zach Jackson at $400,000 a year than Claudio Vargas as $3,500,000 a year. Hence, I think they would rather have ZJ pitching for them than Vargas - while saving over $3,000,000. I see no reason why they would want Vargas.

 

I think Zack is very likely to be traded. He has no future with the Brewers and could provide the Nationals or some other rebuilding team with a cheap starter for a few years while they develop other players.

 

I don't think the Nationals would trade Kearns or Cordero for him. (Or anything close for the matter) Zach has very limited value to most teams. My point is merely that he has more value to a team like the Nationals than he would to a quality team like the Mets.

[wallus]

I think Parra would be the centerpiece of any trade that would include Cordero and Kearns. Most likely a combination of Jackson/Bush, Parra and Escobar with maybe Wise getting thrown in. The only problem with that is that would really kill our farm system but I guess that would not be a big deal assuming we lose the other Cordero and get the picks for him. I would be ok with him as our closer and hopefully we could resign linebrink for the 8th inning.

Off topic but whatever happened to the obp machine Nick Johnson?

[TheBrewer]

This would be my offer:

MIL gets: Austin Kearns + Chad Cordero/Luis Ayala/Jon Rauch

WAS gets: Tony Gwynn + Claudio Vargas + Zach Jackson

 

No way the Nats would do that. Vargas as pointed out they got rid of before.. even if they wanted him back, he's not worth much. Cordero will demand a very good prospect if not a top one of which the Brewers aside from maybe Jeffress or MAYBE Rogers don't even have anymore, and Kearns will demand id say Gwynn and another small nugget. Its hard to say though what other teams think of Gwynn. Scouting says he won't hit enough to be an everyday guy, but fans and others think we should play him everyday. It's hard to say. And I highly doubt anyone will want Zach Jackson.. hes now about a AAAA guy..

[brettac1]

One thing that helps you make deals with Jim Bowden is giving him tools goofs. He loves them.

 

So, I would think someone like Darren Ford, Alcides Escobar, or Lorenzo Cain would be in the deal. I'm definitely fine trading any of those guys. Gwynn would have worked a year or two ago, but now people have seen him play.

 

Austin Kearns is definitely the kind of guy I'd like to see them get. Excellent defender, solid on base guy. I've been a big fan for a long time.

[Oldcity]

I'd make Kearns a top target as well. I wouldn't even need a reliever to come back with him. He's a better defender than Gross and is more established. I'd have no problem paying Kearns the 5 mil in '08 and the 8 mil in '09. Unless he puts up to huge seasons they'd probably buy him out after that, but I think they'd get two good years out of him. I definitely like the idea.

[Gopher74]

This would be my offer:

MIL gets: Austin Kearns + Chad Cordero/Luis Ayala/Jon Rauch

WAS gets: Tony Gwynn + Claudio Vargas + Zach Jackson

 

No way the Nats would do that. Vargas as pointed out they got rid of before.. even if they wanted him back, he's not worth much. Cordero will demand a very good prospect if not a top one of which the Brewers aside from maybe Jeffress or MAYBE Rogers don't even have anymore, and Kearns will demand id say Gwynn and another small nugget. Its hard to say though what other teams think of Gwynn. Scouting says he won't hit enough to be an everyday guy, but fans and others think we should play him everyday. It's hard to say. And I highly doubt anyone will want Zach Jackson.. hes now about a AAAA guy..

I understand not wanting Vargas based on his merits(and by the way, you guys VASTLY underrate a pitcher who's going to keep you in the game nearly everytime out), but the fact that he was already on the Expos(I don't believe he ever played for the Nats) has absolutely nothing to do with anything.

 

New owner, new front office....and having a player at one time doesn't exclude you from ever bringing him back. I'm sure the Twins would take Ortiz back, and the Astros Santana.

[endaround]

How is a guy who has a 5+ ERA and can't go more than 6 innings going to keep you in the game every time out?

[Gopher74]

How is a guy who has a 5+ ERA and can't go more than 6 innings going to keep you in the game every time out?

A-Ask yourself what our record was when he started? That right there should tell you that he keeps us at least in just about every game.

 

3.68, 4.04, 4.24, 4.32, 9.00, 4.66.

These are his monthly ERA's. The August ERA is inflated because of a .2 IP, 7 ER Giants game in which he had a bad back.

He's not NEARLY as bad as some of you would suggest.

And he's a FIFTH PITCHER!!! He's not going to be asked to go out and win 20 games, but he IS a very solid number 5, or even number 4. I could easily see him with an ERA in the low to mid 4's in Washington.

 

By the way, what's his FIP?

[sbrylski]

New owner, new front office....and having a player at one time doesn't exclude you from ever bringing him back. I'm sure the Twins would take Ortiz back, and the Astros Santana.

 

I agree that Vargas being a former Expo is going to have little bearing on the Nationals interest, but the presentation is kind of funny.

 

Which one doesn't belong?

1) Apple - Orange - Banana

2) Santana - Ortiz - Vargas

 

 

By the way, what's his FIP?

 

This season - 5.08

The year before - 4.90

 

Claudio Vargas is likely to have similar value to that of Rod Lopez last season, who netted two mid-level pitching prospects.

[colbyjack]

I agree that the Nationals would be a good target, as Kearns and Cordero in particular would be great acquisitions. However, it is going to take more than what you have proposed to get them, and I agree with whomever said that Parra would be a likely starting point. Cordero alone is likely going to land the Nationals a couple of top prospects at worst.

[TheBrewer]

Unless Bowden is stupid.. and he was with the Nats in 2005 before dealt to ARZ. I think a guy like him you'd get more at the deadline for him.. not during the off-season.. you noted a very good 5th starter. Yea your right for a guy who was our 5th starter whos got a 5.09ERA excellent work id say. Wins are great, but when you have an offense like the Brewers did this season you expect that to a certain extent. I think your over valuing Vargas. He's a 5th starter at best .. what team is gonna give alot away for a 5th starter, much less Cordero or Kearns

[M Skjellyfetti]

I think a deal centered around Parra for Kearns would be great for the Brewers. I wonder if Parra + Gwynn could get Kearns and one of the non-Cordero bullpen options. If that happened, I would be a pretty happy Brewer fan.

[Gopher74]

New owner, new front office....and having a player at one time doesn't exclude you from ever bringing him back. I'm sure the Twins would take Ortiz back, and the Astros Santana.

 

I agree that Vargas being a former Expo is going to have little bearing on the Nationals interest, but the presentation is kind of funny.

 

Which one doesn't belong?

1) Apple - Orange - Banana

2) Santana - Ortiz - Vargas

 

 

By the way, what's his FIP?

 

This season - 5.08

The year before - 4.90

 

Claudio Vargas is likely to have similar value to that of Rod Lopez last season, who netted two mid-level pitching prospects.

First of all, it was obviously a ridiculous comparison, simply pointing out how foolish it is to say that since a team had a player, that automatically disqualifies them from ever re-acquiring him.

 

Second, his value will be significantly higher than that of Rodrigo Lopez last season. Lopez who posted an ERA of 5.90 and went 9-18 vs Vargas who was 11-6 and had a 5.09 ERA(which by the way was 4.73 prior to one start in which he gave up 7 earned in two thirds).

 

Not only that, but he's three and a half years older.

 

I'm certainly not saying we're going to get a superstar in return, however, we could likely package him to a team looking for a 4/5 and get a nice return.

 

However, for the record, I'd rather deal Bush and keep Vargas and use him out of the pen where I think he could be a nice addition. I think as a long man, or a 7th inning guy his velocity would be up to 95-96 and with a good slider, I think he'd be fine.

 

The question is, can you get a better reliever in return for him to a team that wants a starter?

 

 

 

[M Skjellyfetti]

However, for the record, I'd rather deal Bush and keep Vargas and use him out of the pen where I think he could be a nice addition. I think as a long man, or a 7th inning guy his velocity would be up to 95-96 and with a good slider, I think he'd be fine.

 

I'd prefer that anyone with a career WHIP of 1.46 stay as far away from our bullpen as possible.

[Gopher74]

Unless Bowden is stupid.. and he was with the Nats in 2005 before dealt to ARZ. I think a guy like him you'd get more at the deadline for him.. not during the off-season.. you noted a very good 5th starter. Yea your right for a guy who was our 5th starter whos got a 5.09ERA excellent work id say. Wins are great, but when you have an offense like the Brewers did this season you expect that to a certain extent. I think your over valuing Vargas. He's a 5th starter at best .. what team is gonna give alot away for a 5th starter, much less Cordero or Kearns

Again, look at his monthly ERA's.

 

3.68, 4.04, 4.24, 4.32, 9.00, 4.66.

 

He had one poor month that inflated his overall ERA. He's not a great pitcher by any means, and we can upgrade, but he's got a good arm, and to say he's a number 5 AT BEST is overrating the quality of pitching out there. Name me all the number 5's out there who are better?

 

And I'm certainly not saying he's going to net Cordero or Kearns in return...if that was even directed at me. But he could be a very appealing piece to a younger team that wants a good arm. Put him in Shea, RFK, Petco and I could see an ERA in the mid to lower 4's.

 

[Gopher74]

However, for the record, I'd rather deal Bush and keep Vargas and use him out of the pen where I think he could be a nice addition. I think as a long man, or a 7th inning guy his velocity would be up to 95-96 and with a good slider, I think he'd be fine.

 

I'd prefer that anyone with a career WHIP of 1.46 stay as far away from our bullpen as possible.

Yea, hard to imagine a starting pitchers numbers to improve with a move from the rotation to the bullpen.

 

That'd never happen.

 

[endaround]

New owner, new front office....and having a player at one time doesn't exclude you from ever bringing him back. I'm sure the Twins would take Ortiz back, and the Astros Santana.

 

I agree that Vargas being a former Expo is going to have little bearing on the Nationals interest, but the presentation is kind of funny.

 

Which one doesn't belong?

1) Apple - Orange - Banana

2) Santana - Ortiz - Vargas

 

 

By the way, what's his FIP?

 

This season - 5.08

The year before - 4.90

 

Claudio Vargas is likely to have similar value to that of Rod Lopez last season, who netted two mid-level pitching prospects.

First of all, it was obviously a ridiculous comparison, simply pointing out how foolish it is to say that since a team had a player, that automatically disqualifies them from ever re-acquiring him.

 

Second, his value will be significantly higher than that of Rodrigo Lopez last season. Lopez who posted an ERA of 5.90 and went 9-18 vs Vargas who was 11-6 and had a 5.09 ERA(which by the way was 4.73 prior to one start in which he gave up 7 earned in two thirds).

 

Not only that, but he's three and a half years older.

 

I'm certainly not saying we're going to get a superstar in return, however, we could likely package him to a team looking for a 4/5 and get a nice return.

 

However, for the record, I'd rather deal Bush and keep Vargas and use him out of the pen where I think he could be a nice addition. I think as a long man, or a 7th inning guy his velocity would be up to 95-96 and with a good slider, I think he'd be fine.

 

The question is, can you get a better reliever in return for him to a team that wants a starter?

 

 

 

Bush is a much better pitcher, is under Brewer control for three years and is entering his prime. Vargas is set to make $5 million next year, about twice what Bush will make. You don't pay long relief guys with bad numbers that kind of money.

 

[M Skjellyfetti]

Yea, hard to imagine a starting pitchers numbers to improve with a move from the rotation to the bullpen.

 

That'd never happen.

 

Then why would you want Vargas in the pen over Bush? Bush has put up far better numbers than Vargas in his career, the beginning of which was in the AL. Looking at Bush's age and track record, I feel that this season was a bit of an outlier. So, assuming bullpen-Vargas and bullpen-Bush would both improve, why would one rather have Vargas instead of Bush?