New Power 50 - (Up right now!)

[pogokat]

New Power 50 in the next couple days....

[brewcrewman17]

I was wondering when the off-season P50 was gonna come along. I'm looking forward to it... top 5 should be interesting with the suspensions.

[pogokat]

just teasing....new one's up right now.

[True CryM]

I get the Pioneer League having deceiving stats, but Steffan Wilson had a monster year. Any reason for his omission?

[BrewPackBuck]

No Donovan Hand? No Efrain Nieves? Maybe Im high on these guys and others arnt but I figured Id see atleast one of them in the top 50.

[pogokat]

hand was close...he needs to continue producing at the higher level to progress on the list...he's really similar to a few other guys who are ahead of him at the moment.

 

wilson is a college guy doing what he should do to rookie level...he was a later round draft pick, so it's going to take some success above rookie ball before he is declared a top prosspeect...for comparison, check out kenny holmberg a few years ago in Helena---put up nearly identical stats, but since the crew never saw him as a prospect, he hasn't progressed like you'd expect

 

Nieves didn't play very well in a league where few prospects play...not a good sign...for comparisons sake, hernan irribarren hit .439 in AZL a few years ago. I'm not saying that Nieves won't come out of there just fine, but impact prospects put up silly numbers against inferior prospects in arizona

[foamboy1]

Thanks for the great work. The list makes for great conversation.

 

I have a question. You reference (as do others) the substantial talent at the lower levels of our system. Is this legitimate big-league talent, or just guys who are good relative to others in the system? A couple of years ago the list was packed with guys you knew would play one day at the big league level. Now I have a question about everyone on the list, and several questions about the guys lower in the system and how they might project.

 

I'm just curious as to how you think the guys will project as the progress....maybe relative to another Brewer or current or recent past major league player. Anybody you might take a shot with in terms of where you think they will finish in their development?

[pogokat]

Honestly, I think we are not the strongest right now...Obviously, Matt Laporta has a lot riding on him. I'm still high on Lorenzo Cain, and i think that Steve Chapman and Taylor Green both showed a lot this year

 

Caleb Gindl is very intriguing, as are some of the live arms in rookie ball...

 

i'm not really wanting to project anyone, but i guess you could compare taylor green to jeff cirillo

[foamboy1]

Lorenzo Cain was my pre-season pick as Minor League Player of the Year. I didn't feel very good about that in June, although he finished strong. I'm hoping for more power from him as he matures, but I expected more overall this year. Gindl excites me, but he's so young and so far away. Green is interesting. He wasn't even on my radar before the season, so I'm trying to figure out if he can continue his progress. Lots of questions.

[pogokat]

that's pretty much how i feel...i enjoyed this season, but from a development point of view, it was pretty weak

[wvpowerblkwel]

I agree totally with your P50 and the look at the season. Let me add my darkhorse "someone to watch" for 2008. After watching Yo, Inman, Jeffress, Thatcher and others pass through Charleston, we had a kid that showed very late this season from Helena. Bobby Bramhall out of Rice in this years draft. Went 31IP with a 2.03 ERA a 1.10 whip 23 hits, 35k's and 11walks at Helena ...couldn't find his WV stats anywhere. Talked to him during his short stay here, and he is a sharp, intelligent pitcher who seemed to make the batters here look like fools. He's only 5' 11" lefty and his delivery seems to have the A hitters here way off balance. He struck out the side in his 1 inning in the playoffs if I remember right against a very good Columbus team. Anyhow, since I went out on a limb last spring and pronounced Thatcher the next big league candidate, I thought I'd just tell you about another kid I was impressed by....don't think he's big league material today...but certainly worth watching/talking about! Of course you don't go to school at Rice if you're not a pretty sharp kid anyhow do you?

[pogokat]

Bramhall intrigues me as well...i think the k/bb ratio is the biggest thing to look at with guys in helena and WV...which is wwhy i'm interested in Hand, even though i know he doesn't have over powering stuff.

[LouisEly]

All in all good, but two head-scratchers: 1) Darren Ford at #6??? Not a good season - .235 avg, .625 OPS, although is BB:K ratio was a little better this year. Personally I'd put guys at a higher level with some pro potential (Jackson, Hammond, Katin, Miller, Irribarren, Escobar) and the other two A+ OFs (Gillespie, Cain) above him. Plenty of guys with lots of speed - Chris Morris, Ryan Knox - have gone nowhere, and Ford needs to improve a lot at the plate to see anything above AA if that high. 2) How does Zealous Wheeler make the list, but Steffan Wilson doesn't? Yes, college guys are suppose to rake at R+, but Zealous Wheeler was a junior college guy, and Wilson is less than a year older than Wheeler (8 months to be exact) but raked a lot more than he did.

[colbyjack]

It's hard to include Nieves on the P50 because he has to earn his keep a little so to speak before he garners P50 consideration. At least that's how I viewed it. I did like how he missed bats this past summer, but the walks killed him. Hopefully he'll carry over his success at Helena over to next season.

 

Bramhall is a guy I somewhat highlighted as a sleeper in my draft recap story on the homepage as a guy that could move quickly if he's groomed as a lefty-specialist a la Joe Thatcher. Not the greatest stuff, but his approach and aggressiveness could continue to serve him well as he advances.

 

Kenny Holmberg is one reason why not to get too excited about success in the Pioneer League, Tony Festa is another.

 

As for Wilson vs. Wheeler, Wheeler profiles as the better pro. Wilson has defensive limitations that may force a move across the diamond or to LF, despite having a strong throwing arm, if his bat continues to carry him. Wheeler played a few games this summer at SS with a few rave reviews from those that had the chance to see him, so sticking at 3B should not be an issue. Wheeler is a better overall athlete despite having a less than ideal frame and is a better bet to succeed as he moves up.

 

Another thing that bugged me about Wilson was the 18:50 BB:K ratio in 183 ABs. Wheeler's 25:41 in 190 ABs doesn't seem that much greater, and while I recognize the small sample, 6 more walks and 9 fewer Ks in 7 more ABs is just another edge Wheeler has at this stage of the game over Wilson.

 

Plus, Wheeler is pretty far down the list, so it's not like they're that far apart (since everyone that doesn't make the list is technically the organization's 51st best prospect).

 

Hand's lack of stuff hurts him, at least as far as being considered a prospect is concerned. If he were a lefty that wouldn't be an issue.

 

Darren Ford is potentially the most exciting prospect in the system not named Brent Brewer. While I agree that his season was somewhat disappointing as he didn't hit much after his promotion to BC, we've given quite a few other prospects passes for struggling to hit for the Manatees. Chris Morris and Ryan Knox never had the potential and overall athleticism that Ford has.

[Katuluu]

I'm upset with all of you right now.

 

But hey, keep showing love for Christian Guerrero 2.0 traitors!

[colbyjack]

Sorry about Moss Kat. To even it out, Chuck Fermaint could be the next to go if he continues to freefall...

 

I meant to comment about the talent in the lower levels of the system. If you look at the P50, 14 of the top 20 prospects spent most of the year at Brevard County or lower, 35 of the P50 representatives in total. Those numbers should shift a little next year as Gamel, Gillespie, Cain, etc. get bumped up. I agree with pogo's assessment in that following the year prospect-wise left me hoping several of these guys step up big-time in 2008, but the talent is in place.

 

Pitching in particular is likely to continue to be below AA, as most of the guys worth getting exciting about (Jeffress, Rogers, Braddock, Seidel, Bryson, Tyson, etc.) are still several years away, and leads me to believe that pitching will be addressed early and often in next year's draft.

 

The organization is thin on impact talent along the lines of Braun and Gallardo, with Parra and LaPorta as the only prospects that I think have near can't-miss impact potential, but again there are a few guys that could join that level of a prospect with big years next year.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The system is definitely in flux, with depth perhaps at an all-time high but a lack of impact talents. But of course that is because we've put impact talents into the big league team, all across the diamond...with a young big league roster stuffed with talented starters, the demand on the system in the near term is likely to be supplemental players, particularly in the pitching staff. And trade chips...Inman will not be the last beloved farmhand to be sent away for the sake of tweaking the big league roster.

 

Honestly, the difference between, say, the mid-20s and the guys in the 40s is pretty minimal, and there will be major reshuffling next year. You could argue for those changes right away, if you focused on upside as opposed to risk, but cautioni is appropriate in these rankings. By the next draft, though, some of the younger names in the bottom half are almost sure to rise dramatically...Rob Bryson, perhaps? Some of the older guys in the top 25 may well drop out entirely (names withheld to protect the innocent).

[SoCalBrewfan]

Also, am I right in noting that Luis Pena is completely absent from the list? That seems like an oversight, unless he's barred from the list on a technicality. I'd say he's a good candidate to pitch in Milwaukee by the end of next season.

[Mass Haas]

When the list was compiled, we did not know that Luis Pena had been resigned by the Brewers. We also figured there was a pretty good chance he'd end up on the 40-man roster before Rule 5, but at the same time, this will be the Power 50 that is online most of the offseason, and we also thought there was a good chance Luis would use his leverage to become a minor league free agent later this week and sign on with the highest bidder (of which there would have been many, most offering 40-man spots). So yes, it was a technicality, but we also should be taken to task for him not being ranked at all during 2007 as well. Bad, P50 editors, bad!

Luis must have a real comfort level with the Crew, who have seen him through some injury issues through the years as well. To sign on for a 9th (!) season with the organization when his leverage was seemingly so high, the Brewers must have done more than just sweet-talk Luis and agent39.

But yes, Luis will likely be in the Top 20 when the Spring Training P50 rolls around.