Hall for Garland rumor/Why Garland is interesting option

[molitor fan]

This rumor was posted on the jsonline forum via a Boston Globe article I cannot find. The expensive Garland is almost certainly going to be traded, and initially, I was not that excited about him. However, I looked deeper into his season stats and was taken aback. Garland, whose ERA was elevated due to a couple of very poor starts - (roughly 18 Earned runs in 5 innings), was a guy that pitched very well deep into games last year. On 19 occasions Garland pitched at least 7 innings while giving up 3 Earned runs or less. Compared to Garland's 19, no Brewer starter had more than 5 outings going 7 innings while giving up 3 or less. With bullpen issues being what they are, I do not think this kind of innings eating can be lightly dismissed, because it was high quality - and in the AL no less.

 

Some other pitchers stats going 7 or more, giving up 3 or less:

Harang 16

Beckett 14

Peavy 21

[endaround]

Except for the fact the Brewers already have 8 starting quality pitchers on the roster. Garland just isn't that much of an upgrade. Garland's career FIP is 4.87, which basically puts him on the level of Suppan (4.84), Capuano (4.58), and Bush (4.42).

[TCSM]

Hall for Garland Rumor Here you go

[endaround]

Yeah, the author just picked two names out of the air there.

[Roscoe Chill]

Endaround, what are some realistic changes you WOULD agree with? Eight quality starting pitchers? Not last year they didn't have eight quality starting pitchers.

[dadofandrew]

Ndogg, you seem to be forgetting what teams run out there every 5th day. ARI pitched Livian Hernandez last night and his numbers match up well versus Capuano and Vargas. If he's the #3 SP on a 90 win team...

[molitor fan]

Basically that 7+/3 runs or less stat is a modified quality start index, thought it caters more to a team like the Brewers that have bullpens concerns, with that extra inning - getting into the 8th inning. I have gone through 25 of the top MLB pitchers, and only Peavy and Hudson (with 21) and Indians hurlers Sabathia and Carmona (with 20 each) had more outing of 7 or more innings with 3 or less runs given up in the entirety of the mlb. Suppan had a mere 5 outings, and guys like Verlander (13), Wang (14), and Zambrano (11) also fell far short of Garland's 19.

 

Just saying.

[Roscoe Chill]

Al, the Brewers starting pitching was terrible the second half of the season. Yes, the Diamondbacks ran Livan Hernandez out there and they are going to the NLCS. They had Michah Owings ready for Game 4, who is probably better, but they made a decision probably based on experience. If the Brewers offense is so good, and these other teams that are in the playoffs have such bad pitching, than how in tarnation did the Brewers not make the playoffs?

[dadofandrew]

The pitching was 8th, and the offense was 4th, if memory serves. The defense was probably near the bottom, so if you add all that up, they probably were the 6th-7th best team. Looking at next year, unless they trade Sheets, which I think is possible, but not likely, they would seem to have 4 spots of the rotation full, with 4 possibilities. If you trade one, that leaves the 5th starter, and 2 guys in the 'pen as "depth", which is pretty good. That's how I think it will go down, unless they pick up one more SP {probably in a deal like Veteran SP for one of our SP's, plus young player(s)}, then 2 will be dealt.

 

Much of the improvement in '08 will come from our young guys continuing to develop. 5 position players and 2 starters have yet to peak.

[biedergb]

Al, the Brewers starting pitching was terrible the second half of the season. Yes, the Diamondbacks ran Livan Hernandez out there and they are going to the NLCS. They had Michah Owings ready for Game 4, who is probably better, but they made a decision probably based on experience. If the Brewers offense is so good, and these other teams that are in the playoffs have such bad pitching, than how in tarnation did the Brewers not make the playoffs?

Sheets missed most of the 2nd half of the season and Capuano fell apart. The D-backs wouldn't have been there is Webb missed about 12-14 starts. Where would SD have been without Peavy for most of July-Sept? Imagine these teams without their ace and then their pre-season #2 guy slumping big time. Then imagine these teams with a 7-8th bullpen that would blow a lead per week (or so it seemed in Jul/Aug). That's usually a recipe for a 90 loss season. Our pitching depth kept us in the hunt. We had to rely on 3 rookies (well Villy was not technically a rookie) and they did admirably. So moving forward I would agree with the assessment that we have good starting pitching and depth.

 

As far as Garland for Hall. I think Hall has more value on our team than what he can get on the market right now.

[twobrewers]

As far as Garland for Hall. I think Hall has more value on our team than what he can get on the market right now.

I disagree. He is a centerfielder on our team with the potential to put up good number. He can be a shortstop on another team with the potential to put up great numbers.

 

I would like to keep Hall. But he is our most valueable trading piece.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Trading Hall would be a huge mistake, especially for an average starter like Garland.

[brettac1]

I think you would see the same thing that happened with Suppan happen with Garland. The Brewers need pitchers who limit balls in play, due to their defense. I'm not saying he'd be a disaster by any means, but for what it would cost them, financially as well as giving up Hall with decreased value, combined with them not really having a need at the position, makes me think the rumor is bogus.

[billyhallfan]

I'm fine with trading hall, but not for garland, he is not that good anymore, plus, Hall should have a better year next year.

[Gopher74]

Except for the fact the Brewers already have 8 starting quality pitchers on the roster. Garland just isn't that much of an upgrade. Garland's career FIP is 4.87, which basically puts him on the level of Suppan (4.84), Capuano (4.58), and Bush (4.42).

You know, FIP might be a quality stat for guys who are coming up through the minors and have only pitched for a year, but what difference does it make for a guy who's been in the big leagues for several years?

 

Wouldn't ERA, Whip, QS's all be more important stats?

I mean, Jeff Fassero had a 3.55 FIP two years ago. Should we bring him back out of retirement?

 

[Gopher74]

Al, the Brewers starting pitching was terrible the second half of the season. Yes, the Diamondbacks ran Livan Hernandez out there and they are going to the NLCS. They had Michah Owings ready for Game 4, who is probably better, but they made a decision probably based on experience. If the Brewers offense is so good, and these other teams that are in the playoffs have such bad pitching, than how in tarnation did the Brewers not make the playoffs?

It was bad for the first month and a half of the second half.

 

It was fantastic, especially in Sept.

 

Capuano-2.81 ERA

Villanueva-2.10

Gallardo-.64 going into his last start, 1.36 overall.

Suppan-3.86, 3.90 in August

 

Our starting pitching struggled for a couple stretches this year, no question, but it was exceptional the last 6-8 weeks of the second half. It was the the BP that was the problem, and the Brewers absolutely have 8 guys who could start for almost every single team.

 

Vilanueva, Parra and Gallardo are three good, good young arms.

Sheets is obviously...well....Sheets. He's injured, but I doubt you'd classify him as less than a "solid" starter.

Vargas' ERA's were 3.68, 4.04, 4.24, 4.32, 9.00, 4.66. He was killed by his 7 ER .2 IP start vs the Giants when he was dealing with a bad back.

Suppan's ERA the last 3 years was 3.95, and jumped up this year. Very "solid".

And Cappy led the league the last two years in QS's, had a VERY good start to the season, a very good finish, and contrary to popular belief was also pretty solid in the second half last year. Two months with ERA's in the low 2's, the last 4 months. And his ERA was 3.86 two starts before the end of last season.

 

To suggest we DON'T have 8 quality starting pitchers is just wrong. Not 8 great ones, not saying you don't try to upgrade, but we DO have an abundance of the biggest need in the game.

[dadofandrew]

Garland is an option, but I have to think others will give more, because their rotation is barren.

 

The 7+ IP and <3 runs is a very interesting thing to look at. His ERA may have been affected like Marquis' was in '06, and many will never notice it.

[endaround]

Except for the fact the Brewers already have 8 starting quality pitchers on the roster. Garland just isn't that much of an upgrade. Garland's career FIP is 4.87, which basically puts him on the level of Suppan (4.84), Capuano (4.58), and Bush (4.42).

You know, FIP might be a quality stat for guys who are coming up through the minors and have only pitched for a year, but what difference does it make for a guy who's been in the big leagues for several years?

 

Wouldn't ERA, Whip, QS's all be more important stats?

I mean, Jeff Fassero had a 3.55 FIP two years ago. Should we bring him back out of retirement?

 

Nope, FIP or xFIP is better. ERA and WHIP is dependent on defense. As is QS.

 

[Roscoe Chill]

It was fantastic, especially in Sept.

Capuano-2.81 ERA

I keep seeing this stat flashed around in support of Capuano, the reality is, though that he only made two starts in September. The rest of his innings from the month were out of the bullpen.

[Gopher74]

It was fantastic, especially in Sept.

Capuano-2.81 ERA

 

I keep seeing this stat flashed around in support of Capuano, the reality is, though that he only made two starts in September. The rest of his innings from the month were out of the bullpen.

He threw 2 IP, 4 IP, 5 IP and 5 IP. So while two were out of the pen, he was still very good for two starts, one was a long relief appearance, and the other was just two innings.

 

[Gopher74]

Except for the fact the Brewers already have 8 starting quality pitchers on the roster. Garland just isn't that much of an upgrade. Garland's career FIP is 4.87, which basically puts him on the level of Suppan (4.84), Capuano (4.58), and Bush (4.42).

You know, FIP might be a quality stat for guys who are coming up through the minors and have only pitched for a year, but what difference does it make for a guy who's been in the big leagues for several years?

 

Wouldn't ERA, Whip, QS's all be more important stats?

I mean, Jeff Fassero had a 3.55 FIP two years ago. Should we bring him back out of retirement?

 

Nope, FIP or xFIP is better. ERA and WHIP is dependent on defense. As is QS.

 

If you say so......

It's not a very good stat for GB pitchers. Brandon Webbs for example is generally going to be higher because he's a GB pitcher. This stat does very little for GB pitchers.

 

I think it's kinda funny how instead of just talking about how many guys you allow on base, and how many runs you give up, we have to come up with all these intricate stats to tell us that a guy isn't really as good or as bad as he's been for several years.

 

[endaround]

Because defense matters and thats outside of the pitcher's control. And Webb is an outlier. Webb's GB/FB ration is 3.68 for his career, Suppan's is 1.40 hardly similar.