A-Rod's Postseason Struggles (since the 2004 ALCS)

[DougJones43]

Alex Rodriguez struck out 3 times yesterday, and is hitless (with 2 BB) in the Yankees first-round series with the Indians. The Yankees trail 2-0, and are in danger of making an early exit from the postseason once again.

 

I wanted to know what people here think of A-Rod's recent troubles in the postseason. Since the 2004 series loss to the Red Sox, Rodriguez is 3-for-35, with 8 BB, 12 K, and just one extra basehit. Is it bad luck? Bad timing that just happens to coincide with the crapshoot that is the postseason? Or is it some kind of mental block that causes a change in his approach? Perhaps he puts a lot of pressure on himself and that contributes to his problems. If that's the problem, does that mean he's a real-life example of a choker?

 

I think that both sides of the argument have validity. Strictly going by the numbers, it is easy to cite the small sample and write the whole thing off as such. However, in observing him, he really has seemed to look "lost" at the plate during the last 3 postseasons. It's really just anecdotal evidence, but (IMO) he doesn't seem to have the same swagger, concentration, and solid approach that he carries during the regular season. What do you think?

[M Skjellyfetti]

I don't really think there's anything to his struggles. While he may look lost at the plate, he's still walking a bunch, so he can't be too lost. I also feel that the term "looking lost at the plate" tends to apply to just about everyone in some stretch at some point. For example, many stated that Rickie Weeks was looking lost at the plate in his bad stretch earlier, and look how he bounced back. I think it's just that everyone is cold sometimes and hot sometimes.

[brettac1]

I think he's had a bad 35 AB's or whatever. I think he's fine.

 

What's weird is that he was never hailed as God of Clutch when he was hitting .400 in the postseason before this bad stretch. I think the reason you see anecdotal evidence of a weak psyche is because it's gets pounded and pounded into everyone's heads by ESPN and NY papers that he's a choker. History teaches us that if you repeat something over and over, in time it comes to be seen as common knowledge and truth.

 

In reality, I don't really think it makes much sense to take AB's from multiple years and add them together as something meaningful, like these 35 AB's. It's cherry picking, each season is it's on entity, not to mention he has faced the likes of Carmona and Sabathia, probably 1 and 2 in the AL Cy Young this year. On the road. He's had a rough stretch, he could just as easily come out and go 4-4 tomorrow with 2 bombs.

[Ennder]

The fact that his entire team struggled during that same stretch says to me they just ran into some really good pitching.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

If the Yankees make another 1st round exit, (a sweep, including a pounding of Roger Clemens would be perfect) and Rodriguez keeps foundering, then it DOES lessen his regular season exploits a bit. Between April and mid-September, he was fattening up on a whole lotta Oriole, Blue Jay and Devil Ray pitching. But in the postseason, for the most part, EVERY playoff team has really good pitching. But other players, ones who make a small fraction of what Rodriguez does, seem able to step up.

 

It appears that Rodriguez wants the hype, the biggest contract in the sport, the endorsements, the shirtless tabloid pictures, all the attention, but when it comes to performing when the chips are down for the New York fans and media (ESPN qualifies on both counts), Alex doesn't seem capable of taking it in stride.

 

Thing is, another big playoff failure for Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees is a very good thing. Again, it diminishes his "legendary" season. And it means the Yankees are roadkill again. But it also could mean that the Cubs may NOT be interested in giving him $300,000,000 for the next 10 years now, because they, too, choked on the sport's biggest stage. Would they want to ADD an underperforming, ridiculously overpaid, and not that charasmatic, billionaire? I don't think so. The Cubs want to retain that "lovable, underdog, good guys" image. Michael Barrett, Moises Alou, LaTroy Hawkins, Dusty Baker, and especially Sammy Sosa, were sent packin'. And it seems that, when the ultimate pressure is on Alex Rodriguez, he won't lead you to a world championship, anyway, much less a pennant. If he led the Yankees to a ring in 2007, he'd be perceived as a big part of that success, possibly able to duplicate that for the Cubs. But it ain't happenin'.

 

So, it's not just a win/win. It could be a win/win/win tomorrow. The Yankees would be eliminated. That's a win. Clemens WILL retire again, but this time, he may not be asked back (at least not on HIS terms). That's another win. And win #3 could be that Rodriguez won't become a Cub.

 

Go Tribe!

[M Skjellyfetti]

Between April and mid-September, he was fattening up on a whole lotta Oriole, Blue Jay and Devil Ray pitching.

 

I don't think that really had much to do with anything. He can (and did) hit just about everybody. However, when even the best players fail over half the time, it's pretty easy to put together rough strings against anybody. For example, from July 23 until August 1, the Yankees played Kansas City, Baltimore, and the Chicago White Sox, three terrible teams. A-Rod went 3-31 in those games, even against crap teams. A-Rod also went 10-27 with 5 homers in a stretch in April against Cleveland and Boston, two teams with very good pitching. My point with these examples is that one can cherry pick whatever stretches they want in a season to find good stretches against good pitching and bad stretches against bad pitching. While your theory would seem to make sense, I can find stretches like the above two mentioned to show that it's not really the case. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it doesn't make much sense to say that one of the best players of all time doesn't deserve a big contract based on 30-some random at-bats.

[tnweill]

I believe in the old cliche, "Great pitching will always beat great hitting." I just think Sabathia and Carmona are that great of pitchers that they were able to shut down the Yankees lineup.

[crewcrazy]

So far in the Cleveland series:

Derek Jeter is 1-8.

Robinson Cano is 1-7.

Johnny Damon is 1-9.

Jorge Posada is 0-7.

Hideki Matsui is 0-7.

 

But it's all Alex Rodriguez's fault, right? With his salary, he should motivate his teammates to do better against two of the AL's Cy Young candidates!

 

I just love how everyone conveniently forgets that he had a monster ALDS in 2004 against Minnesota before the Yankees' infamous ALCS collapse that year. He's had a bad stretch of 22 games following a monster stretch of 15 games. It's just a shame that the law of averages is coming back to him while he's playing in New York.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"...it doesn't make much sense to say that one of the best players of all time doesn't deserve a big contract based on 30-some random at-bats."

 

Oh, he'll get a big contract. Can you imagine Rodriguez getting anything short of $20,000,000 a year, from anyone? I'd also imagine he'll deserve a huge deal, because he racks up all those gaudy totals during the regular season. So that's not the point.

 

It DOES make sense because a) Rodriguez seeks, craves, requires all the hype, salary, endorsements and attention, that is normally accorded someone who comes through at the most important times. And he apparently is not that guy. David Ortiz is much more valuable when the season is on the line. Derek Jeter, Josh Beckett, Mariano Rivera, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Curt Schilling, too.

 

But A-Wad shrinks in the glare of the #1 media market, when the pressure's on. Yet, Scott Boras and he are proclaiming him to very possibly be the best player ever, and to intuitive baseball fans, he just isn't close.

 

These 30 at bats, if they came during Spring Training, or even in April, when there's no added pressure? They would indeed be random. But when they keep coincidentally occurring at critical times, whenever the season's on the line, they're not random at all. It seems you're lumping in these plate appearances with everything else he's done during recent regular seasons, as if to simply tack on 30 more bad at bats to his overall totals, and dismiss them as a temporary slump. There's a reason postseason stats aren't counted in with the 162 games already played. It's because you're being asked to perform in an entirely different atmosphere. It's a whole 'nother level of play, and he's failing miserably at it, again and again.

 

"But it's all Alex Rodriguez's fault, right? With his salary, he should motivate his teammates to do better against two of the AL's Cy Young candidates!"

 

No one's requiring him to motivate anyone. That's Joe Torre's job. You know? The guy whose eyelids are closing shut in the 2nd inning every night?

 

You're right to include Cano's numbers, along with Jeter's, etc. But if you want, require, demand, to be considered (and paid) as arguably the best player ever, shouldn't you be able to find a way to get a hit or 2? Hell, by your argument here, A-Rod may as well get the same free pass you'd grant a Wes Helms, because those pitchers are just too tough. Want people to think you should be ranked up there with Ted Williams and Babe Ruth? Get a hit off of a tough pitcher on a playoff team!

 

"It's just a shame that the law of averages is coming back to him while he's playing in New York."

 

Yeah, what a shame.

[brettac1]

It's a whole 'nother level of play, and he's failing miserably at it, again and again.

 

But what about when he succeeded, again and again? Like all the way until that 2004 ALCS? He was flat-out mashing in the playoffs. He singlehandedly destroyed the Yankees in New York when he was with the Mariners in the playoffs.

 

I don't get it, though. People hate on A-Rod because he makes a lot of money. Great. But he doesn't have some sort of a character flaw that doesn't allow him to hit when a calendar is flipped to October.

[Ennder]

If the yankees were all clobbering the ball and ARod was stinking you might have a point Geno but the entire team is hitting poorly. That says that most likely the pitchers are just doing a good job against them.

[dadofandrew]

Playoffs--.357/.464

Reg Sea-.389/.578

 

ARod seems to be a step below his regular season totals, though that makes sense, considering that you face better pitchers in the playoffs, and rarely face the #5 starters and mid-long relievers. He's far from "struggling". The small sample police just don't understand, which is fine, it lets me know who to avoid paying attention to.

[DougJones43]

But what about when he succeeded, again and again? Like all the way until that 2004 ALCS?

That's kind of why I brought it up. I don't think it's necessarily some character flaw. He did, in fact, hit well in the postseason prior to that series. But I'm not totally convinced that it's just 100% coincidence that these struggles began when they did. He was heavily criticized after that ALCS. He was held (perhaps unfairly) partially responsible for the failure of the entire team, and his girlish ball-swatting incident was subject to unrelenting ridicule.

 

Obviously, we can never prove anything for sure. But don't you think it's at least possible that stuff like that, coupled with the constant pressure of playing in NY has snowballed into him now mentally faltering when the playoffs begin?

[saget]

The whole 'A-Rod sucks in the postseason' argument always makes me laugh.

 

Just about every post on FJM.com lately has some sort of A-Rod in the playoffs stat.

 

I don't know what I'm contributing here, so I'm done now.

[DougJones43]

The whole 'A-Rod sucks in the postseason' argument always makes me laugh.

Well, since 2004, he has sucked. Bad. So it shouldn't make you laugh that hard. The question is whether or not that sucking is actually meaningful, and if so why is it happening?

[DougJones43]

Playoffs--.357/.464

Reg Sea-.389/.578

 

ARod seems to be a step below his regular season totals, though that makes sense, considering that you face better pitchers in the playoffs, and rarely face the #5 starters and mid-long relievers. He's far from "struggling".

 

If you took the time to read my initial post, I was referring to his postseason struggles since the 2004 ALCS. I'll change the thread title to avoid future confusion.

 

 

The small sample police just don't understand

I thought the small sample police was the group who busted people for using small samples.

 

 

which is fine, it lets me know who to avoid paying attention to

How were you ever a moderator?

[jason21nl]

Playoffs--.357/.464

Reg Sea-.389/.578

 

ARod seems to be a step below his regular season totals, though that makes sense, considering that you face better pitchers in the playoffs, and rarely face the #5 starters and mid-long relievers. He's far from "struggling". The small sample police just don't understand, which is fine, it lets me know who to avoid paying attention to.

 

wow, thats all I have to say. Kinda of being a jerk in this post. Not sure if I can say that or not, but pretty sure you didn't need to write that last sentence.

[DougJones43]

wow, thats all I have to say. Kinda of being a jerk in this post. Not sure if I can say that or not, but pretty sure you didn't need to write that last sentence.

 

Just because Al gets away with murder on this site doesn't mean you have to be afraid to stand up to him. Sure, you'll probably be the one to get a warning to knock it off, but that's still better than putting up with his constant condescending way of telling people "the way it is." He can be worse than many of the trolls we've seen here, in my opinion.

[TooLiveBrew]

But A-Wad shrinks in the glare of the #1 media market, when the pressure's on. Yet, Scott Boras and he are proclaiming him to very possibly be the best player ever, and to intuitive baseball fans, he just isn't close.

...

 

"It's just a shame that the law of averages is coming back to him while he's playing in New York."

 

Yeah, what a shame.

Rodriguez's Close and Late (defined as: "results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied, or with the potential tying run at least on deck") 2007 line reads as follows - .293/.418/.520/.938

Runner(s) on base + 2 outs - .292/.399/.577/.976

Runner(s) in scoring position + 2 outs - .302/.429/.512/.941

 

GSP, much love for ya, but it seems kinda clear that - in this arena - any analysis you provide is heavily tainted by your large distaste for A-Rod/NYY. No qualms with that, but I agree with those who point out that he's merely human, and has had success in the playoffs before, but is in a stretch where he hasn't done well at all. If you would not sign him as a GM based on that fact, fine. I'm pretty sure that Ted Williams, the Babe, et al had stretches in the postseason where they struggled, too. If this turns into a run of 100-ish (or 75-ish, heck I'd be willing to go as low as 50-60 just for argument's sake) ABs for Rodriguez, the notion will have some relevance for me - but that's just me.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"...until that 2004 ALCS? He was flat-out mashing in the playoffs. He singlehandedly destroyed the Yankees in New York when he was with the Mariners in the playoffs."

 

That's our point here. In relative obscurity, and low-pressure atmospheres in Texas and Seattle, sure Rodriguez thrived. But have your agent engineer a trade to the biggest market of all, with the attendant hype and higher profile, and A-Wad shrinks. No one in this thread was questioning what he was able to do in the playoffs before he became A-Rod Incorporated, of the YES Network. Wanna be considered the best, maybe as great as Babe Ruth? Stop dumping your drawers in the postseason.

 

"I don't get it, though. People hate on A-Rod because he makes a lot of money. Great. But he doesn't have some sort of a character flaw that doesn't allow him to hit when a calendar is flipped to October."

 

Apparently he does, now that he's a Yankee. I think if Derek Jeter or Vlad Guerrero or David Ortiz were given the highest salary in baseball history, they'd be able to handle the pressure that comes with it. But judging by his ridiculous defensive gaffes at 3B, and his annual postseason chokes, Rodriguez can't. His regular season stats point to greatness, a Hall of Fame induction. But to be considered among the pantheon of the Mount Olympus of baseball, as he and Scott Boras are hyping him? Not even close.

 

"If the yankees were all clobbering the ball and ARod was stinking you might have a point Geno but the entire team is hitting poorly. That says that most likely the pitchers are just doing a good job against them.'

 

But what about 2006? The Tigers shut down Rodriguez, even as Jeter (5 hits in Game 1), Giambi, Abreu and Sheffield were mashing the ball all series long. In 2005, against Anaheim, Cano had a great series, as did Jeter, Matsui and Bernie Williams. In 2004, when the Red Sox made their historic comeback, stats show that Hideki Matsui hit .412, and Bernie Williams drove in 10 runs.

 

Other Yankees did what they could for the last 4 years, but as it has been since he orchestrated that trade from Texas, Rodriguez hasn't been able to. But he's still the highest paid, the most overhyped, and the biggest endorser they have....

 

"Playoffs--.357/.464

Reg Sea-.389/.578

 

...He's far from "struggling"

 

First of all, Al, if you were on the same page as those of us you're debating in this thread, again, we're asserting that, in his YANKEES YEARS, Rodriguez is a miserable playoff failure, i.e. to put it very mildly, he's struggling.

 

Taking his career playoffs vs. career regular season totals and using that to support your argument here, is missing the point, wildly.

[brettac1]

Want people to think you should be ranked up there with Ted Williams and Babe Ruth? Get a hit off of a tough pitcher on a playoff team!

 

Hey - how many world series did Ted Williams single-handedly carry his team to?

 

.200/.333/.200 in the postseason.

 

Get him out of the Hall!

[brettac1]

I think if Derek Jeter or Vlad Guerrero or David Ortiz were given the highest salary in baseball history, they'd be able to handle the pressure that comes with it.

 

Vlad in October (57 AB):

193/.258/.246, 1 HR

 

You think wrong?

[dadofandrew]

Geno, you're talking about a tiny sample, what, 100 AB's? Every player in the game has a bad stretch of 100 AB's. Taking a large number and making it smaller until it proves the point you're looking to prove doesn't do it for me.

[M Skjellyfetti]

I don't understand how being on a playoff team in a smaller market (relative to the Yankees) could possibly be considered "low-pressure". If your team is in the playoffs, with the playoffs being how they are, everyone has a chance to win and expects to go out and win. How playing for a title in Seattle or Texas could be considered any easier than playing for a title in New York is beyond me.

 

Also, even if this premise were to be taken as true, there should be a lot more pressure on A-Rod in the regular season as well, no? Especially with how bad the Yanks have started off the past few years, they've had plenty of pressure on them to perform at the top of their game just to make the playoffs. Yet A-Rod never folded there. He played some amazing baseball as a Yankee. I just don't understand how it could be assumed that he just folds under pressure in the playoffs but not under arguably the same amount of pressure if not more during the regular season.

[endaround]

What about that choker Clemens? Another deciding game another choke by Clemens! And he gets more money than ARod!