Japanese relievers

[colbyjack]

Given the success of recent Japanese short relievers such as Akinori Otsuka, Takashi Saito and Hideki Okajima, I thought it would be relevant to list a few names that are reportedly going to be available as Japanese free agents this offseason that are sure to draw interest from MLB teams. There are going to be other names in the mix, but they have to go through the posting process that Dice-K and Ichiro went through before their arrival to the United States. It will be interesting to see if the Brewers get involved with this market given their own need for relief help assuming one if not both Cordero and Linebrink leave via FA.

 

Koji Uehara, RHP

Turns 33 in April. Had 32 saves this past year, third best in the Central League. Was used primarily as a starter prior to the 2007 season, but was used in relief this past year and is expected to be a better reliever in MLB. High-80s to low-90s sinking fastball, forkball, nasty curve, slider. Relies more on control and command than pure stuff, a common theme for many Japanese pitchers. Almost a lock that Uehara is pitching in MLB next season. Many have already penciled him to play for the Yankees next year, who have a strong working relationship with the Yomiuri Giants (Hideki Matsui).

 

Player Profile:

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=uehara

 

Career Stats:

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1071

 

Baseball-Reference bio:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Koji_Uehara

 

YouTube:

 

Uehera Watch:

http://www.ueharawatch.blogspot.com/

 

Hitoki Iwase, LHP

Turns 33 in November, low-90s fastball, mid-80s slider. His 43 saves this past season were good for second in the Central League, giving him 129 saves the past three years. His 60 appearances were tied for sixth-best.

 

Player Profile:

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=hiwase

 

Career stats:

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1065

 

Baseball-Reference bio:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Hitoki_Iwase

 

YouTube:

 

Masahide Kobayashi, RHP

Turned 33 in May. His 27 saves this past year were third-best in the Pacific League. Info on Kobayashi is a little harder to find that the two pitchers listed above. His fastball does sit in the low to mid-90s.

 

Career Stats:

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1131

[endaround]

Old Japanese pitchers have thrown a load of innings. most Japanese pitchers are done by age 30 because they are heavily worked.

[colbyjack]

Otsuka signed in December of 2003 and is 35 now, Saito signed February of 2006 and is 37 now and Okajima signed last November and is 31 now. It's not fair to make a broad stereotype given the great success of these three pitchers into their 30s, as I've seen a few stories that have dubunked the myth that Japanese pitchers lack the strength and overall conditioning to enjoy long and fruitful careers (I think one was on Baseball Prospectus from their Japanese expert Mike Plugh).

[endaround]

Its nothing about conditioning or strength, its about the fact they tend to be over pitched. I'm not saying they can't be useful and looking at 30 year old relievers would be different than looking at starters, but there is a decent amount of risk involved.

[thevaccinator27]

What kind of price are we talking about these guys commanding?

[mothershipconnection]

If we sign a Kobayashi, I want it to be Takeru.

 

If some of these guys slide down to teams like us and can be had for a reasonable price, it could definitely be a big help. My worry is that many Japanese free agents seem to get overhyped as if they've actually put up those numbers in MLB and not NBL. Maybe I'm just paranoid after the Nomura fiasco.

[qrk10000]

Its nothing about conditioning or strength, its about the fact they tend to be over pitched. I'm not saying they can't be useful and looking at 30 year old relievers would be different than looking at starters, but there is a decent amount of risk involved.

 

I am not sure that it would be that much riskier than signing a 30-year old reliever that has pitched in MLB, End. For me, the risk would be money. I have no clue as to what kind of contracts these guys are looking for. Colby, do you have any ballpark guesses?

[Gopher74]

Its nothing about conditioning or strength, its about the fact they tend to be over pitched. I'm not saying they can't be useful and looking at 30 year old relievers would be different than looking at starters, but there is a decent amount of risk involved.

And a significant amount of reward as well.

 

However, I'd agree. With the amount of solid relievers available, I'd rather roll the dice with a Troy Percival type reliever.

[colbyjack]

I really have no clue what kind of money these players are going to command. I think Uehera and Iwase could get a deal in the 3-year, $15-18M range, which seems to be the going rate for solid free agent relievers in recent years, as these players could be treated the same way especially from teams looking to land the next Okajima or Saito (meaning, they probably shouldn't get that kind of money from day 1 since they are still unproven commodities).

 

Okajima signed for 2 years, $2.5M last offseason with a '09 club option of $1.75M. I doubt these guys (at least not Uehera and Iwase) touch money that low.

[colbyjack]

splitter's post about all of the Japanese free agents (if someone wants, feel free to merge these two posts) prompted me to look up some of the players listed there vs. the three relievers I have listed here. It turns out Koji Uehara will not be a free agent this offseason, as an injury that caused him to miss time early in the season caused him to not reach the service time required for him to become a free agent. I'm not sure how these rules work, as Fukudome had a similar situation yet was able to become a free agent through some kind of loop-hole in the process.