Catching situation for 2008 (Merged: "Maybe we'll have a better catcher next year!")

[Fatter than Joey]

If you look after the AS-Break -- JE and Ausmus are the worst starting catchers in the NL both with OPS under .600 -- that sucks. The difference is Ausmus can actually run faster than evolution and can catch/throw better.

[TooLiveBrew]

MJL, I used 200 ABs since it makes the group larger than, say, 15-20 players. I did it out of objectivity - in fairness to both Estrada and the group as a whole. I don't understand your gripe - is 200+ TPA not enough on which to judge a player's performance? I think it's unquestionably enough, and that's why I used it. Sure, shrinking the group inevitably bumps Estrada's ranks up, which is a bit misleading, imo.

[uecker9]

Someone could double check these- Brewers have given up 85 stolen bases- the league average is 83.5.

[endaround]

I think we should trade Johnny and Vargas back to Arizona for Doug Davis ..........Say we were just kidding

There's a reason many of us thought it was bad trade. This year Davis's VORP 31.2. Estrada's 8.6 and Vargas' 6.6.

 

[sbrylski]

Someone could double check these- Brewers have given up 85 stolen bases- the league average is 83.5.

So its not as bad as it seems.

 

Stat - Brewers - NL Avg - NL Rank

SB - 85 - 83.9 - 7th

CS - 28 - 27.6 - 7th

% - 75.2 - 75.2 - 7th

 

Basically dead average.

 

[MJLiverock]

Estrada vs. LH pitchers is .320 avg., .328 OBP,( he really doesn't walk off LH's) .445 SLG and .774 OPS. So in a favorable split situation he is better than average. Now if only we could have the luck of finding a decent LH hitting catcher.

[logan82]

I said at the start of the year that I thought we wouldn't be much better off with Estrada behind the plate than we were last year with Miller. We did get a more durable player and a better backup, that's it. I think last night's game shows what the organization thinks of Rivera. It was a day that would usually go to Miller, but Estrada was still out there. Especially this late in the year I would think it would be a good idea to get you catcher some rest. I am not a fan of Estrada, but he is still the best alternative we currently have.

DD's VORP is 31.2? Who has a comparable VORP? After last year I am glad we got something for Davis.

[endaround]

Rivera went out there because Miller is hurt. Rivera is only in Milwaukee because Miller is hurt. Rivera wasn't even given the start even though he had caught Gallardo before.

 

The reason why Estrada is often brought up is 1) there aren't many avenues to upgrade position players, you have catcher and LFer. 2) Estrada is only under control for one more season 3) There is no in house option anywhere close to the major leagues.

 

VORPs around Davis include Snell, Glavine, Felix Hernandez, and Wakefield. Alot of Davis's value comes from the fact he is likely going to pitch over 200 innings again this season.

[logan82]

What I was saying about Rivera is that I thought he would have gotten the start on Wednesday. Miller has been getting the start pretty much every third day and I would think it wise to rest Estrada as much as possible at this point in the year. By them not starting Rivera in that game I think it shows a huge lack of faith in him being much more than an emergency catcher or AAA filler.

 

I am surprised to see Davis along with those guys. Watching him last year was pretty painful, much like watching Vargas this year. After talk of inning eaters and looking at 200 innings over 34 starts averaging out to just under 6 innings per start, I think 200 innings a year is overrated. Just my opinion though. Still don't think it was a bad trade based on the fact that we had no other plausible options for catcher.

[jeffy]

EDIT: jeffyscott, the aggregate average is exactly what I think should be avoided in such an analysis, precisely for what I mentioned in the segment you quoted. Finding the mean imho is a much more accurate mode of analysis, but I suppose an agg.avg. wouldn't be terrible. Below is the sorted-by-number-of-ABs list of C this year in MLB. Note Ronny Paulino as an example of why BA still has value, and Jason Varitek as the perfect example of my final paragraph. Sorry, don't know where to get agg.-avgs. aside from crunching the #s yourself!

Not sure what you mean by "mean" http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif, if not the same thing as aggregate. The aggregate would be the weighted average of a particular offensive statistic...weighted by plate appearances. Did you want to just take the mean for all catchers, without consideration of the number of plate appearances?

 

Hey, I just found the aggregate numbers for MLB catchers:

 

LEAGUE AVERAGES		GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
American League		140	501	60	128	28	1	14	200	66	.254	.317	.398	.715
National League		140	512	54	131	27	2	13	200	67	.255	.316	.389	.705
Major League Baseball		140	507	56	130	27	1	13	200	66	.255	.317	.393	.710

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=onBasePct&split=78&group=9&season=2007&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

[gregmag]

I hate watching Estrada; I hate how he mars our beautiful array of homegrown and genuinely good players. But I have to say, on balance I still understand the trade. Estrada has been adequate for his position. It's been a long time since we had a reasonably durable catcher who was adequate, and it was about the only position in the starting lineup that we could improve by trade. Davis is eating innings, which would have been nice, but he's starting to cost money that we need for other things, and he just isn't all that good. You can make a decent argument that we really could have used DD this year, but I'm pretty sure his negatives next year will outweigh the need for him; in addition, the difference between Davis and Vargas in the rotation may not be as great as the difference between Estrada/Miller and Miller/Rivera behind the plate. It's not an easy one to analyze, but I think it was a reasonable trade.

 

Greg.

[jeffy]

At the link I gave above you can look at 2006 stats also. For the catcher position the Brewers stats are worse in '07 compared to '06 for OPB, SLG, and OPS only BA has improved. Also the RBI by catcher looks like it'll end up about the same for '07 as it was for '06. I had assumed Estrada was an upgrade on offense, but having a hard time seeing where this actually occurred.

[TooLiveBrew]

sorry, jeffyscott - I just don't know mathematics terminology very well. I thought "aggregate average" = 'combined average', not that it was weighted in any way. Me dummy!http://www.cinemablend.com/images/sections/2229/2229.jpg

[jeffy]

Well, I don't think that is any kind of official terminology or anything...it just made sense to me as a way put what you were saying.

Besides, your comments resulted in me finding the actual MLB averages for catchers http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/glasses.gif.

[endaround]

I'd be more understanding if it was Davis for Vargas and Estrada, it was inlcuding Eveland that erally still galls me. I know soem here think Eveland is a bust, but he is way too young for that (he's younger than Parra after all). Now he was injured a lot this year but a 22 year old who dominated AAA isn't a bust.

 

That isn't to say I'm upset they traded Eveland, just that I'd rather it be for something with a better impact.

[Ennder]

At the link I gave above you can look at 2006 stats also. For the catcher position the Brewers stats are worse in '07 compared to '06 for OPB, SLG, and OPS only BA has improved. Also the RBI by catcher looks like it'll end up about the same for '07 as it was for '06. I had assumed Estrada was an upgrade on offense, but having a hard time seeing where this actually occurred.

 

The thing is Melvin couldnt' have known what Estarda would do offensively this year. He had a great year followed by a year where he played hurt and didn't do well followed by a good year and then this year he's played poorly again. For all we know next year he posts another .775 OPS and people are happy with him again offensively.

[Weirdos19]

I have been impressed with Rivera for two Septembers now. Is he going to be next year's starter?

 

I vote yes.

 

He has to be better than our 300 pound catcher we have now. That guy has put on 40 pounds during this season, hasn't he?

 

(added tags, unambigufied thread title --1992)

[AJAY]

I don't know about starting, but I would love to have Rivera as a backup. He is about 3 million dollars cheaper than Damian Miller and probably can hit better. Nothing against Miller, but you definitely feel like you have a chance for a big hit when Rivera comes to the plate.

[RockCoCougars]

How can he be any worse than Estrada? At this point I would take Chad Moeller ahead of Estrada. What is Dave Nillson doing these days? I heard that he ballooned out big-time, but he has to be in better shape than Estrada.

[thablingster]

I'd definitely like to see Rivera get a look as at least a backup. He has shown decent pop at the plate and seems to be an average at worst defense catcher.

[tigerbrew]

In an earlier thread several days ago, I hope for Rivera to get more playing time over Estrada for this crucial month but it did not happen.

For next year, I hope Rivera is the Brewers backup catcher on opening day.

Edit: Also, I prefer to have Damien Miller back than Johnny Estrada for next year.

[Fatter than Joey]

The other problem with our catchers is Yost. Yost will never use 2 catchers in one day. It would be nice to have the ability to pinch-run our C's or defensively replace them in some situations.

[igor67]

Rivera didn't have a great history as a defensive catcher. But after having seen Estrada I don't think worse is actually possible at the MLB level. His bat plays similar to Estrada, but his OBP appears to have more upside than hoping for another .300+ season from Johnny. I wouldn't consider him a major upgrade except in speed and maybe blocking balls in the dirt, but given that he's cheaper and he can do everything just as well or better than Estrada the switch makes sense. I'll keep advocating for Palmisano to come up next year too, and get on base and hold the oppositions running game down.

[razzzorsharp]

Wow, sometimes I think people don't remember the balc hole we had at catcher a couple years ago. There is a shortage of quality catchers in this league. We have one that is average and I can deal with that.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Rivera is a back up at best based on his AAA numbers. We need to upgrade the catcher position either through trade or free agent aquisition. Bringing back Estrada is a completely unacceptable solution to the catching position.