Catching situation for 2008 (Merged: "Maybe we'll have a better catcher next year!")

[TooLiveBrew]

When I sort '2007-to-date' stats for MLB catchers, only two (Ivan Rodriguez & Jeff Mathis) appear with worse OBP out of those who exceed Estrada's .403 SLG%. Granted, I'd have to do much more in-depth research into who, exactly, would sustain numbers such as those posted thus far - but I think this relatively large group (made up of FT-ers & PT-ers alike) speaks to the fact that a capable replacement (at worst - it seems a better replacement is likely from such a group, too) is not out of the realm of plausibility, should the 2008 Brewers seek one. While I'm fully aware that not every name on that list would repeat the 2007 success, just the fact that there are 23 catchers in MLB that exceed Estrada in both SLG% & OBP suggests that it would be much better than a slim chance to improve on him next year.

 

MLB C's, sorted by SLG%

[igor67]

I really don't believe Estrada is due for an upswing. His BA is right at career levels. This is the third year in a row his walk rate has gotten epically bad, so his career OBP is misleading. This year is the highest his SLG has ever been without him hitting over .300. He could do that next year and be passable, or he might hit .260 like he did a few years ago and be a major liability.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

I would sign Benji Molina to a one or two year deal. He would get around the same money as Estrada and he is better. Molina has a strong throwing arm and far more power than Estrada. He has also played in big games with the Angels and played great. The only negatives with Molina are his age and the fact that he is as slow as Estrada. I would rather have Molina on a short term deal than Estrada.

 

1250's "Baseball insider", Adam McCalvy, said this morning that he remembered talking to Melvin about Benji Molina a while ago. The Brewers had an opportunity to go after him in free agency but did not. This was at least in part because Melvin and his staff had determined that Molina could actually hurt your offense by clogging up the basepaths. Apparently they had lost that fear when they went after Estrada.

[Fatter than Joey]

His passed ball etc defense is bad but not terrible

 

I think it is borderline terrible -- and I don't see this aspect of his game improving at all.

 

I do agree though it is overwhelmingly likely he will be back in 2008

[jeffy]

Estrada's OBP is barely below average for a C. He's a very solid offensive C, we're not talking about a corner OF here.

 

In addition, his AVG and SLG appear to be above average for a catcher.

[TooLiveBrew]

To run with that thought, and even though OBP is more important in this sense, just to utilize that last comment, Estrada's OPS is hardly above-average. I point to OPS since it utilizes OBP (which inherently utilizes BA) and SLG%. His .705 puts him at 26th in MLB for catchers with at least 139 total plate appearances. If you want to sift further, for at least 200 TPA, he's 18th in the league. Where in that is he above average? Perhaps "above average" he may be, since you get to also include the bottom-feeders. However, imho, "mean" is a more accurate way to measure in this manner, as opposed to "average," since then one is just evaluating against the true 'middle of the pack', as opposed to one created (perhaps erroneously) via statistics.

[logan82]

When we got him we had already heard that he was a bad defensive catcher. I thought they were refering to his bad % of runners thrown out. I didn't realize I would gasp for air every time there was a ball in the dirt. I think he is just bad at blocking balls. His OBP has been AVG driven for most of his career so when he doesn't hit it will drop like a rock. I don't think he has been much worse than we should have expected, just that he was brought in and talked up as a former All-Star(lone selection on a bad Braves team) and .300 hitter. Looking deeper he may have been a .300 hitter, but his OBP was horrible for having such a high AVG.

I think we are stuck with him next year. All of those guys on your list are pretty old. I would guess a decline for most of them on the list , at least from the offensive side.

[jeffy]

However, imho, "mean" is a more accurate way to measure in this manner, as opposed to "average," since then one is just evaluating against the true 'middle of the pack', as opposed to one created (perhaps erroneously) via statistics.

That is a good point, it would be most meaningful to compare his numbers to the aggregate average for all catchers. Is that data available? All I did was look where his name appeared on the list of catcher stats sorted by AVG and by SLG...he was fairly high up on those lists.

 

I'm not a big fan of him, but it does seem that he can hit fairly well. That is not to say that this is enough to excuse his lack of walks or his poor defense.

[TooLiveBrew]

jeffyscott, don't get too caught up in Estrada's rank in terms of BA. If you do a check for his differential (OBP-BA), I'm sure he'd come in near the bottom. Now, I'm no sabermetrician, and don't even know if I spelled that correctly, but the reason I focus more upon OBP is because it includes BA. Then added with SLG, the OPS stat tells you the combo of: how frequently the player is on base, and how far he (on average) advances himself by hitting well. All BA tells you is how often the player records a hit out of official at-bats - not how effective he is as an offensive player, or at getting on base.

 

I don't mean to condescend, but imho the one crucial flaw in examining Estrada is to focus on his best attribute (BA), and then ignore the fact that he almost literally doesn't get on base via the BB. All the 'stat-head' guys & gals will reiterate this (which is the only reason I know it!) - in OPS, or in general, OBP is more valuable than SLG, since the object of the game at bat is, simply put, to get on base. If Estrada (or Mench for that matter) could somehow - I know it's impossible at this point - start to take more BBs, it's quite fair to say his BA might dip.

 

However, the great thing about a BB is that it's a guaranteed way aboard. Estrada's approach forces him to rely exclusively upon putting the ball in play, and as you can see, he has a success rate of roughly 28%. Hypothetical - if he could work more BBs, & his BA dips to .265-.270, one could call that 'bad.' However, if his OBP could be upped from 30%, to a more respectable, say, 34%, then you're talking about a much greater offensive weapon. Even though his BA dips, his OPS would jump from its current .700 to .740. That's more than acceptable from a C, and would also lower his GIDP totals over the course of a season. All this is what led me to start this thread initially, as I'd gladly sacrifice some BA for a higher OPS, namely in the OBP category.

 

EDIT: jeffyscott, the aggregate average is exactly what I think should be avoided in such an analysis, precisely for what I mentioned in the segment you quoted. Finding the mean imho is a much more accurate mode of analysis, but I suppose an agg.avg. wouldn't be terrible. Below is the sorted-by-number-of-ABs list of C this year in MLB. Note Ronny Paulino as an example of why BA still has value, and Jason Varitek as the perfect example of my final paragraph. Sorry, don't know where to get agg.-avgs. aside from crunching the #s yourself!

MLB Catchers

[TooLiveBrew]

Out of the 31 C in MLB with at least 200 official ABs, only 8 currently have a lower OBP than Estrada.

 

15 of that list have a lower BA & higher OBP than Johnny (and one - Yadier Molina - has an identical BA, and an OBP 55 points higher)

 

14 on that list have a higher SLG% than Estrada

 

18 in that list have a better OPS than Estrada (to be fair, two players are at .701, hardly enough to be called "better")

 

Mike Napoli (LAA) exceeds Johnny in OBP (.346), SLG (.459), & OPS (.805) but has 194 ABs on the year, so I didn't include him until now

[glassjawed]

A catcher who consistently refuses to take walks and destroys rallies is one thing (and enough in my opinion). What I dislike most is the lack of grit. I remember watching Mike Matheny get hit in the mouth and stare back at the pitcher with blood gushing out of his mouth. While that might be slightly insane; it also shows a side of a catcher that Estrada and his kin lack. I know Estrada takes a lot of foul tips, but I'd like to see a bit of aggressiveness in him. What wonders that could do for a young club.

[TooLiveBrew]

So from my last post, I personally am back at square one. Estrada's offensive output, at best, is average for a C. His defense, at best, is 'not quite terrible' (though I feel, objectively, he's terrible). Are the budget-conscious Brewers really in a position to pay appx. $5 mil. for an overall below-average player next season? Even if Estrada rebounds a bit in terms of BA, which is by no means expected or a given, he's still - on the whole - probably below average.

[logan82]

Unfortunatly with the lack of quality catching across the league, $5m is probably the going rate for a C with his service time.

[Fatter than Joey]

Out of the 31 C in MLB with at least 200 official ABs, only 8 currently have a lower OBP than Estrada.

 

If you really want to see something putrid -- look at his stats since the AS break

[BrewCrewForever]

I want a catcher who can play great defense. It would be a bonus if he can hit a little, but I want a guy who blocks everything and can throw out runners.

[Tbadder]

I buy the Barret argument. Plus, you know he's gonna comeback and absolutely punish the Cubs and the Zamboni. I also like the guy from Cleveland--cheap and with ocassional pop.

[Weirdos19]

I realize that Estrada is under our control for another season, but here's an idea.

 

Bring Mike Rivera up and play them as a strict platoon. Estrada will still get 4-5 games a week, but Rivera will hit nothing but left handed pitching.

 

If they need to play Rivera more than that because of day games after night games, fine. He was our best catcher last year and sat in AAA all year.

 

Heck, if Rottino replaces Graffanino (my prediction), a few starts behind the dish for him wouldn't hurt either.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yikes. Nice call, FTJ. Eeesh.

[uecker9]

Here's a really big reach- what if Johnny continues his Sept. pace. 3 of 4 multi hit games and a .444 OBP. Would a good month, esp a good September change peoples perspective?

[VegasBrewerFan]

I think we should trade Johnny and Vargas back to Arizona for Doug Davis ..........Say we were just kidding

[Fatter than Joey]

Would a good month, esp a good September change peoples perspective?

 

Probably not -- he is a bad defensive catcher -- I tend to value that a lot more than his BA

[Principessa21]

yea. even if he weren't allergic to BBs, and had a decent OBP, I'd accept poorer defense, even though I'm generally in agreement with FTJ - C is one spot where (unless he's an OBP or OPS-machine) I take defense over offense. Johnny has killed us back there this year.

[Fatter than Joey]

I think we should trade Johnny and Vargas back to Arizona for Doug Davis ..........Say we were just kidding

 

Don't Forget Aquino!!

[uecker9]

I don't get the Barrett arguement, his defense is worse than Estradas.

 

5PB's and 6 E's seem more middle of the pack to me.

[MJLiverock]

why use the cutoff of only 200AB's you are basically comparing to Catchers that play about 1/3 of the game, or most likely only against pitchers that favor their R/L advatages. I don't think Estrada is a world beater but if you compare him to catchers that play say 2/3's of the time he is about average. Looking across all of baseball and I don' t see a whole of batting strenght among catchers at all. Even a guy like Brian McCann who is supposed to be a stud has an OBP of .323.

 

A guy like Laird is just horrible in the batter's box.