Ned Yost Yay or Nay thread: Hardball Times rips Yost

[endaround]

Thing is, Mench should have been pulled the previous inning when Howry was brought in. Yost has given Mench 128 PAs vs RHP this season and Mench has responded with a .211/.246/.301 line. The use of Mench like that has likely cost the Brewers at least one win.

[Bucky Rules]

The bunt gives you 95%+ chance at an out to avoid the 20% chance of a GIDP and 2 outs, thats not a very good trade when you are down by 2 runs with only 3 outs left, not in my book.

That's a bit misleading. You neglect to mention the 68% chance of Hardy making an out if he's swinging away. So by bunting, you're only giving away the difference between the 68% and the 95%+. A successful bunt puts the tying runs in scoring position where a single will score them. Even with the chance of an unsuccesful bunt (and Dumpster is not a tough guy to get a bunt down on), the bunt makes much more sense than your statement implies.

And when they walk Fielder, our chances of winning (as opposed to just tying) are not significantly decreased because Hart or Mench would only need an extra base hit instead of Fielder, Hart or Mench needing a HR. And who is to say that they wouldn't have taken the bat out of Fielder's hands no matter the situation?

 

I'm not in favor bunting a heck of a lot, but I have no problem with that decision in this case.

[Bucky Rules]

I disagree, and I hate Yost's desire to bunt whenever possible

I have absolutely no idea what you're basing this on. Yost rarely bunts, except in situations like last night. For all of the criticisms that he gets, this one blows me away. Let's bring in Mike Scioscia, and see how much bunting in the 3rd inning we'll be doing.

[logan82]

Substituting Jenkins for Mench changes your odds for success from 24.6% to 33.4%. Looking at it that way you only change the odds by just under 10%.

[Bucky Rules]

He doesn't have a bad history against Dempster though, he has a career .864 OPS against him. Also you can't look at the last 22 AB's to judge a situation, Mench being left in there is completely indefensible. My 8 year old would have made the correct move there but Yost for whatever reason likes to go against logic. I was in a room with 20 people when Mench came up and every single one of them boo'd the move because it was just idiotic.

No, Jenkins doesn't have a bad history. It's just not overwhelming. Like I said... bringing in a guy cold off the bench, and the fact that he is struggling at the plate right now makes it a situation where you're picking the lesser of two evils. Personally, I was calling for Jenkins or even Counsell, but looking back and all things considered, I think his decision was defensible.

 

By the way... when your last 22 ABs have been as clueless as Jenkin's has been, it's a legitimate concern. If you'd prefer we can take his last 38 ABs... he's 5-38 with 10 Ks and 1 bb. That's an OBP of .154 - almost all of which was coming against RHP. He's struggling, to say the least. To say that it was a no-brainer decision is a bit over the top, if you ask me.

[Nearsighted Views]

I am not saying that he made the right move last night. Just that maybe this isn't as big of a deal if our pitching isn't the worst in the NL since the all star break. Then we aren't down 1.5 games going into this series and nobody is as upset with the loses. I still blame the starters and bullpen for putting us in this situation in the first palce. These guys were supposed to be one of the best in all of baseball, but up to this point have been even worse than last years parade of crap.

Mench is paid to be a professional hitter. Where was he for the rest of the inning when Dempster was demonstrating that he had no control?

I respect you holding your stance despite the barrage of criticism but if you go with this mentality, you take all ownership away from a manager and say the he is totally not a factor in any game. You're right about the pitching staff. Ultimately, it's on them. But when you compile bad decisions on top of bad play, you compound the situation.

 

Substituting Jenkins for Mench changes your odds for success from 24.6% to 33.4%. Looking at it that way you only change the odds by just under 10%.

 

In the biggest game the team has played in 15 years, you're happy with someone who would DECREASE our chances by 10% and offer the explanation "flow of the game." Prior to the last couple of weeks, I could at least understand where Yost defenders were coming from. I've been pretty quiet on this subject and think that much of the criticism has been somewhat overboard. But not here.

[TooLiveBrew]

To say that it was a no-brainer decision is a bit over the top, if you ask me.

As both you (buckyrules) and logan pointed out, Yost had the chance to make a decision with a higher chance at success (either Jenkins or Counsell), and declined to do so. If there's anything that is a manager's job - it's to be able to correctly identify the better of two choices, even if that is picking the lesser of two evils. 'Evil' though it may be, it's still the better chance to win the game.

Logan: Why wouldn't you want that extra 9-ish percent? Or are you just saying the choice wasn't 'clear-cut'...because to me, even gaining a 10% boost is clear cut.

[Bucky Rules]

Thing is, Mench should have been pulled the previous inning when Howry was brought in. Yost has given Mench 128 PAs vs RHP this season and Mench has responded with a .211/.246/.301 line. The use of Mench like that has likely cost the Brewers at least one win.

That may be, but the only good replacement option was Gabe Gross, and he went in in the 8th for Bill Hall -- who similarly to Jenkins seems completely lost as of late (2-20 with 12 Ks and 1bb).

[endaround]

A 10% point change is huge. Most of the time 5% point is a large difference (a .300 hitter versus a .250 hitter). Yost faced with the season on the line pulled a Graddy Little. But Little at least had a hall of fame pitcher on the mound. Yost had Kevin Mench.

 

EDIT: So Yost stuck with the blistering Mench and his .209 in August? This was no brain move that Yost couldn't make.

[Bucky Rules]

As both you (buckyrules) and logan pointed out, Yost had the chance to make a decision with a higher chance at success (either Jenkins or Counsell), and declined to do so.

I said nothing of the sort. I said that as I was watching the game, I was calling for Jenkins or Counsell. After hearing his explanation and looking deeper into it, I don't think that I could honestly argue that there was a higher chance for success with Jenkins or Counsell (given Counsell's lack of success against Dumpster, and Jenkins recent struggles). Mench was playing, he hit two balls hard (granted against LHPs), so give him a shot. The other options were not better (IMO), all things considered. You can make an argument for Jenks, but it's still a very close call. Certainly one that shouldn't be garnering this much attention.

[TooLiveBrew]

Like I said... bringing in a guy cold off the bench, and the fact that he is struggling at the plate right now makes it a situation where you're picking the lesser of two evils.

This is the blurb that made me lump you two together. Your mention of picking the lesser of two evils, which is precisely a manager's job.

 

[Bucky Rules]

This is the blurb that made me lump you two together. Your mention of picking the lesser of two evils, which is precisely a manager's job.

Yes... but I was arguing that it's perfectly legit to consider Mench as the lesser of the two evils.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Substituting Jenkins for Mench changes your odds for success from 24.6% to 33.4%. Looking at it that way you only change the odds by just under 10%.

 

In baseball percentage terms...that is huge. No excuses for that move...none.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is the blurb that made me lump you two together. Your mention of picking the lesser of two evils, which is precisely a manager's job.

Yes... but I was arguing that it's perfectly legit to consider Mench as the lesser of the two evils.

Ok, fair enough. http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif (agree to disagree)

 

[davego]

I was thinking Geoff...but now after pondering it most of the night, Criag might have been the better choice given the bases were loaded and Dempster was not throwing a lot of strikes.

[jeffy]

Thing is, Mench should have been pulled the previous inning when Howry was brought in.

Oh no, he had to leave him in for his stellar defense. Needed him out there standing on the warning track to watch fly balls that should be outs, fall in front of him.

[YedNost]

You guys forget that Yost didn't need to bring in Jenkins, there was still Counsell. I'm not sure of his numbers against Dempster, but the dudes proven his clutch factor time and time again through his career and his avg. with the bases loaded is the best on the team.

[jlau20]

I think Ned said Counsell is 1-10 career vs. Dempster...I would still most definitely take that over Mench's 0-1 and season .215 or whatever it is against righties.

 

Plus Counsell is a bit more prone to take walks than Kevin "Johnny Estrada" Mench.

[MarquesJohnson2000]

During the postgame press conference, Yost said that Counsell is 1-10 against Dempster.

[HebrewHammer]

I'm not sure why Yost is using hitting stats for a player against Dempster. Did anyone maybe notice that he was WILD. He throw balls to Braun that Braun swung at, dang rookie. He walked Fielder wisely. But he threw trash to Hart and walked him too.

 

We needed a guy who could work a count and get a walk.

 

Who did that the last night almost? Gabe Gross? Didn't he take like 1292832938 pitches in an AB the night before?

 

All we needed was a walk against a pitcher who didn't have it to tie the game.

 

Why was Yost using hitting numbers? Why didn't he put the guy he had available that could most easily take a walk?! In fact, he put the WORST guy he had at taking walks up there and he swung at the first pitch with the bases loaded to a pitcher who wasn't throwing strikes.

 

When the bases are loaded and you only have to get a guy on to tie, you should be looking at OBP, not AVG.

 

I would have went Gabe Gross (I think he was available) or Counsel. These guys take a low of walks.

 

EDIT-> Gross wasn't available. At the time I yelled for Counsell, I guess I'd stick with that. Anyone but Stench.

[zachjack13]

I think that I've been most people this year, flip-flopping back and forth between keeping or firing him. Now my statement is that Yost should be fired, but don't do it now, but until we have actually collapsed, because let's face it, the Brewers are still in this division that is horrible. I've been thinking about it and the simple fact of Valentin and then letting Mench hit and other factors have led me to believe him to be fired

[T B0NE 10]

NAY!

[HebrewHammer]

yay.

[jeffy]

I disagree, and I hate Yost's desire to bunt whenever possible

I have absolutely no idea what you're basing this on. Yost rarely bunts, except in situations like last night. For all of the criticisms that he gets, this one blows me away. Let's bring in Mike Scioscia, and see how much bunting in the 3rd inning we'll be doing.

Not based on anything other than my impression over the year's is that Yost thinks the bunt is a great play. I did find a quote to back this impression up, though:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/27/AR2005082701172_pf.html

 

"The bunt is kind of a lost art," said Milwaukee Brewers Manager Ned Yost. "Even our pitchers who are supposed to be good bunters -- and we work on it every day -- they struggle to bunt. A lot of times, our success or failure [in a game] hinges around the bunt. And if a pitcher can't get a bunt down early in the game, it can kill us. Bunting is still a big part of the game, but it's fallen by the wayside in the last 10 years or so."

I don't think there are any stats on bunt attempts only on successful bunts, which leaves out a lot such as attempting to bunt until 2 strikes. If Yost actually does call for a bunt rarely, it is still too often for me. I am against most bunting by other than pitchers...and good hitting pitchers like Gallardo also should not bunt much.

[Bucky Rules]

I don't think there are any stats on bunt attempts only on successful bunts, which leaves out a lot such as attempting to bunt until 2 strikes. If Yost actually does call for a bunt rarely, it is still too often for me. I am against most bunting by other than pitchers...and good hitting pitchers like Gallardo also should not bunt much.

Yost doesn't bunt with anybody except pitchers before the 8th inning. And rarely with position hitters after the 8th.

 

His statement that you quoted is almost exclusively referring to having pitchers bunt. Furthermore, he's speaking of a player's ability to bunt is a lost art. Certainly you can't be arguing that a player shouldn't be capable of laying down a bunt. Your impression of what Yost thinks, doesn't make it so. As so many do, you've mischaracterized his statement entirely. If that statement is the most damning statement you could find on his love affair with the bunt, then nothing more needs to be said.