Minor League Showdown II: This Time It's Personal

[pogokat]

Taylor Green and Mat Gamel made a virtually perfect showdon based on age and position. They are probably the two easiest to compare in the entire system...here's a little trickier one:

Cole Gillespie or Michael Brantley

[colbyjack]

At first you wouldn't think this showdown makes sense, but after thinking about it for a split second it is actually a very good and fitting one given the number of man-crushes these two young men can claim (hopefully not to their knowledge).

 

Largely because of the keen eyes, as both have shown a very good job drawing walks and limiting Ks. Brantley of course is doing so now one level higher than Gillespie and three years younger, which is extremely admirable. I have long contended that Brantley is going to have to find some kind of power if he is going to avoid comparisons to Tony Gwynn, regardless of Brantley's age.

 

And according to pogo's first-hand accounts, Brantley doesn't have Gwynn's speed nor his defensive prowess, and may be limited to LF. That isn't what I want to hear about someone that has only 43 extra-base hits in 972 professional at-bats, although I do recognize that those numbers are slowly but surely improving (6 XBH in 207 ABs in '05, 12 XBH in 360 ABs in '06, 25 XBH in 405 ABs in '07...still not good, but improving nonetheless).

 

Had Gillespie's enjoyed his very good second half during the first half of the season, he may have gotten the bump to AA. He still finished this past year with very solid numbers at Brevard County, which we all know is no easy place to hit. But Gillespie did really struggle at the beginning of the season, something few of us expected from such a polished college hitter.

 

And his age is a factor against him, as he does have to prove himself fairly quickly next year at AA to re-claim his position as one of the organization's best prospects.

 

I like Brantley, but Gillespie's ceiling is higher, even at an advanced age. Gillespie at his best could be hitting for average, modest power while getting on base at a very good clip. He has enough speed to swipe a few bags, and he reportedly plays very good defense in left field and played a little center last summer for Helena.

 

However, both are going to face an outfield crunch in the Brewers organization, Gillespie more so than Brantley with the possibility of being leap-frogged by Matt LaPorta.

[brosto1]

I think Brantley will be a capable starting OF, similar to the 90's versions of Darryl Hamilton.

 

I am just not sold on Gillespie, probably in large part due to his age. His inconsistency is actually encouraging to me, in hopes that he could somehow maintain the higher level of play with another full season. Until he does gain some consistency, I will prefer Brantley.

[Kevbo74]

I tried on 3 different occasions to type what I thought, but all 3 kept turning negative on both of these guys.

Summary.

Brantley's not fast enough for center, and not powerful enough to work in the outfield.

Gillespie didn't have a great season, he improved over the course, but not really that much. Saying that he has to prove himself quickly at AA is almost a stretch. Does he automatically go to Huntsville? I figured him to start in Brevard again.

This one is tough for me to call, because if either one makes it to the club, I see them having as much time playing as Gabe Gross does. So far.

Brantley has plenty of time, Gillespie has a little time. I can surely see both having great seasons next year, with an edge to Cole for cieling, and what he did in 06.

 

I'm really not Down on these guys.. just not really high on them either.

[colbyjack]

Gillespie didn't have a great season, he improved over the course, but not really that much.

 

Gillespie, April through June:

 

.224/.333/.373 in 263 AB

 

July through August:

 

.332/.426/.491 in 175 AB

 

If by "not really that much" you mean that he didn't get his overall numbers (he finished .267/.378/.420) up to where many people expected him to finish, than I would agree with you. If you mean that he didn't improve that much as the season went on, which is how your comment reads, than I guess I couldn't disagree with you more.

 

It's still impressive that as poorly as he hit during the first three months of the season, he still maintained a rather impressive OBP relative to his hitting. His .378 OBP overall tied for seventh best in the Florida State League with Mat Gamel and one other player (his OPS was 16th best).

[Kevbo74]

No question that his numbers went up after the break.

What I mean is at no time in the 2nd half did I say "wow, Cole's really revving it up". And I listened to a good 85% of those games.

He hit well in later july and august, after a few promotions were dealt out. The whole team was hot though. I think august is a watered down month in the fsl. I don't study #'s as much as everyone else, so I guess I missed great games.

Looking at them though... His total hits in the 2nd half went up by 7. (54pre/63post) Triples (3/0) HR (7/5). no biggie, just sayin.

He improved, but he didn't WOW. Maybe I expected more. .342 in July = great. but that's the pace I was looking for since april. He followed a great july by more than doubling his strikeouts in august. July's average was nice, but 6 rbi, 1 homer, 4 doubles..

 

Now that you mention his ops and opb ranks, it sounds good. Perhaps I am mistaken.

 

I don't mean to dog him out. I'm not trying to dig up bad things to say about him. I just think that even if he himself looked back at this season and compared it to what he thought he would do, he'd be unhappy. If the July and August Cole is what we see for all of next year, especially in AA, then I'll hop on his wagon. Until then, his wagon is full enough, and still full from people being on it in 06. I jumped off it in May, and was never lured back on it. jmho.

[igor67]

My take is that I would find it very unlikely for Brantley not to make the majors at some point and hang around for awhile. We can quibble about how good his performance actually was, but he still hit well enough to be in AA and contribute at 20. If he can develop more power he can maybe go from a Rich Becker career to a Rusty Greer career (minus injuries). Cole on the other hand is a bigger unknown he could just as easily flameout at this point as turn into a solid big league OF. A higher ceiling than Brantley, but more risk.

[gregmag]

I love Brantley, and I think Colby's point about him is absolutely right -- he needs power, or he's Tony Gwynn Jr., Jr. For me, the reason for optimism about him is that he has a lot going for him at a young age (hits for a good average, insane plate discipline, good wheels with great baserunning instincts) and he's so young that he seems to have a good chance to develop power. Evaluating him, I think, is all about that variable, and I don't know that anyone can really predict it well. I do think I recall pogo's having said Mike has a good frame; if so, that helps.

 

I understand the concern about his limitation to LF, but it doesn't really bother me. Somebody made the Daryl Hamilton comparison . . . put it this way: right now, what would you give to add an OBP machine to this organization in LF? If he can develop just enough power to keep pitchers honest, and if he holds the rest of his skills, he can help a team in LF -- especially a team that already has power out the proverbial wazoo.

 

Gillespie continues to confuse me. He put up a very credible season in Brevard, but his age for the level somewhat undercuts the usual inclination to view stats there generously. He simply doesn't have much time -- at 24 next year, in AA, he's going to have to be a lot more production than potential. He doesn't have any one skill that stands out -- decent speed, decent power, decent average. Nothing wrong with that, but it all has to hold together, at least, for him to be a starter. If Brantley's downside is Gwynn, Cole's seems to be Nelson Cruz.

 

Clearly Gillespie profiles to put up better numbers than Brantley in AA next year. But their three-year age difference, for me, more than makes up for that difference in present projection. At the moment, if I could only have one, I would rather have Brantley.

 

Greg.

[pogokat]

I think you guys have covered the ups and dowwns of these guys, but here's my quick take:

 

---Brantley's skills are great, but i don't know how well they will hold up in the majors...he doesn't have any young player skills really...he works the count...that's pretty much it...of course, it's hard to get a gauge on a guy who has been playing as the youngest guy at the league at every level...the only time he wasn't way too young for his league was the first half of this year, and he played very well...i think there is power there...at least enough to slug .425 in the majors, but i think he'll struggle to be an .800 ops kind of guy...so he's like matt murton...he has a lot of value to a team...but he's not exciting to watch, and non stat heads would probably think he sucks.

 

---Sometimes Cole Gillespie is Gabe kapler, and sometimes he's travis hafner...i'm ok with his age...sure, he doesn't profile to be a hall of famer, but he's got similar skills to other late bloomers...he could be a .900 ops type guy...or he could be raul ibanez...he's got a lot in common with gabe gross. Which is to say, i think he's got a fantastic chance of being a major leaguer for a few years...it just probably won't happen until he's 26...that's totally ok, because the brewers could get his best years, and then let him walk when he's a free agent knowing they aren't losing anything. I'm more excited by Cole than I am Brantley.

 

Who's the better prospect? I think the Brewers like Branttley more, but i'd take Gillespie. brantley really can't play CF, and i think Cole can. Also, Brantley has no ppower at all, and Cole's is a slight plus. I like both guys, but i'd take Cole Gillespie. They should both start in Huntsville this year, so we will get a chance to watch them play off each other.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I'm still mystified by the move of Brantley to AA this past year. I don't know how to read that...does that mean they like him better than Gillespie? Or does that mean they didn't want to disrupt the guys in A+? The two are somewhat similar, I guess, with Gillespie having more current value and a broader base of skills, but Brantley having youth on his side and the chance to be better long term should he improve upon his major flaw (lack of power).

 

One factor to consider: As I understand it, history suggests that the prognosis is not good for minor leaguers whose main value comes from walks. I don't recall the details of the analysis, but it seems to me that somebody found that these guys just aren't as likely to progress as one might expect.

 

The other factor for these guys is that Brantley as a lefty OBP guy could make a lot of sense as a bench player, pinch hitting and backing up the outfield. Gillespie's a RH hitter who might well fall into the 'tweener' category...not enough D for center, not enough power for a corner, and in a platoon / reserve role, he might find himself struggling to get ABs. With Hall, Braun, and Hart all hitting righty (not to mention the middle infielders), there will very likely be opportunities for a lefty outfielder / pinch hitter. On the other hand, if the Brewers go with Gwynn a year or so down the road (for whatever reason) or add a lefty corner OF, that might enhance Gillespie's opportunities.