Melvin's End of Year Press Conference

[logan82]

20 of those thirty-three 7+ inning starts were in April, May and June.

[endaround]

I feel like they'll offer Cordero a respectable offer (2 yrs/$17 million) which will be far below market (something like 4 yrs/$38 milion) and he'll be gone.

[AJAY]

One of the things I liked was when Doug talked about adding one or two "professional hitters" who work the count and draw walks. I have long advocated adding another Kevin Seitzer, Mark Loretta, or Fernando Vina type of hitter to take over in left field. I also wonder if this means the Brewers have decided to shop Bill Hall.

[Blazer25]

If anyone wants to bet me that Suppan's HR rate doesn't increase next year, I'd be happy to take it.

Supp's HR totals may go up, they may go down. Your graph however, shows that his HR/9 has decreased every year since 2004.

 

My guess is that it stays lower.

 

Older control pitchers often develop better feel for the sinker and off speed stuff which can lead to fewer HR's. A lot of it has to do with not being able to throw it by guys anymore.

 

I'd guess if you plotted Maddux, Glavine and others you'd see a similar trend in the 30-34 YO range.

[sbrylski]

Blazer25 wrote:

I'd guess if you plotted Maddux, Glavine and others you'd see a similar trend in the 30-34 YO range.

Here you are...

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/633_90_104_P_aseason_full_4_20071001.png

 

That shows Glavine and Maddux at being better at keeping the ball in the park, but both their trends are rising at the same age as Suppan's has been decreasing, and they continue to rise as they get older. I see no connection between age and HR/9 in this sample.

 

[Blazer25]

I see no connection between age and HR/9 in this sample.

Really?

 

That seems to be the trough in all 3 graphs to me. Ages 28-34 are were all 3 guys sort of bottomed out as far as HR/9 innings is concerned. Year to year the numbers go up and down but taken as a whole those years are the "low trough" for all three guys.

 

Nice graph by the way.

[SoCalBrewfan]

It's time to go out and get proven talent to fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.

 

I don't know what Gallardo and Villanueva have left to prove....

 

Down the stretch, which starting pitchers gave you a confident feeling? Down the stretch, which guys came through with the sub-2 September ERAs? It's not the youngsters that let this team down.

 

Yost returning isn't news, I guess, but I'm still disappointed. Though I am pleased to read the comments that Tom H quoted:

 

"There are areas Ned needs to improve at. He knows that. I had dinner with him (Tuesday night) and Ned will admit to a number of places where he made mistakes with his management of the bullpen.

 

"This is the first legitimate year we contended to the point where we really had a shot. So Ned is experiencing this for the first time, too. You can get better. If he doesn't, sometimes you suffer the consequences."

 

So at least it's been said publicly, and by Yost's boss...the guy has had issues managing the bullpen. And there is a public statement that Ned needs to get better, or else.

 

Russ said:

 

It's a little disappointing that Melvin didn't even mention the defense. It's a problem he has created. I know that it will improve naturally (young players) but when it's as bad as it is right now, I don't think it could ever be even average with the guys they have, where they have them.

 

Yeah, Braun might have been the worst defensive player in the big leagues. But that is not what I'm fixated on...rather, it's the notion that the defense will improve naturally due to the fact that young players improve. A lot of people here have said that, and I wonder whether that is a valid assumption. I had been under the impression that defensive value tended to peak earlier than offensive value. Even if there is some improvement, can we get to good enough? Maybe in some cases...Hall seemed to improve over the course of the season. Weeks seems better at 2b this year, but better still doesn't necessarily mean good. But Fielder doesn't look like he'll ever be a defensive wiz, and Braun has a lot of improving to do before he's even close to average.

[JohnBriggs12]

I find the discussion on Suppan interesting. Suppan has been a 6 inning guy his entire career. Now he'll consistently give you 6 okay innings, but to make a 6 inning pitcher the centerpiece of your offseason, then complain that your starters don't go 7 enough is rather ironic. Aren't you sending the message to starters that 6 innings is fine when you've handsomely rewarded a guy who does just that?

[homer]

The point is that not enough guys made it to 200IP - Suppan did. Breaking down 6th inning vs. 7th inning is reading too much into it, IMO>

[rluzinski]

Older control pitchers often develop better feel for the sinker and off speed stuff which can lead to fewer HR's.

 

If the result of all that is an increase their groundball rate, I wouldn't disagree but that's not how Suppan lowered his HR rate this year. Perhaps there's something else contributing to the decrease in HRs but I don't think any pitcher coulds sustain a 7.3% HR/FB rate, certainly not when half their games are in a HR park. Not even close.

[1992casey]

As a 'safety valve', Yost-centric messages are being moved to the Yay or Nay thread. They're not lost. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

One of the things I liked was when Doug talked about adding one or two "professional hitters" who work the count and draw walks. I have long advocated adding another Kevin Seitzer, Mark Loretta, or Fernando Vina type of hitter to take over in left field. I also wonder if this means the Brewers have decided to shop Bill Hall.

 

Totally agree. The lack of plate discipline by our hitters is troubling. If guys like Braun and Fielder are going to take their hacks...fine (although Prince actually has very good discipline for a guy that hits with that kind of power...truly a special talent). Hall, Jenkins, Mench, etc... We've had too many all or nothing types in the lineup. It's been a trend that dates back to the Rob Deer era straight through Jose Valentin to now. Since we have the top 5 in our lineup set and they have plenty of power, mix it up with a couple OBP guys. Maybe one goes in the two hole and you can drop Hardy down to 6-8 for more opportunities to drive in runs.

 

Whether they believe in Gwynn or not, he might be the type of player to be in the outfield in place of Menchkins. I'm not sure if there is a replacement for Estrada, we may have to live with him. Maybe we pay for a team of trainers to whip him into shape. If that's the case and Hall has value on the market...it might make sense to move him. A higher OBP with a better glove in center would more than make up for whatever they give up in power. I'd shop him.

[endaround]

Gwynn is not that type of player. People assume he's a contact hitter because he has no power. He isn't. He's a big strikeout guy with no power.

[Fatter than Joey]

Gwynn would be the worst corner OF in MLB

[bklynbrewcrew]

Gwynn cant even get the ball out of the infield on a consistent basis. We need to trade him this winter before the rest of baseball realizes he has no value.

[homer]

Professional Hitter = Fukodome

 

He'd be a perfect fit in left.

 

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

[BrewCrewForever]

I hope they really do make a hard charge for Cordero. We need to keep him here. He is no doubt priority #1 this offseason.

[Thurston Fluff]

Lance Nix and Tony Gwynn had almost an identical OBP in AAA. They both are plus centerfielders. The only differance is one has power and the other doesn't. All things considered if it comes down to those two I'd rather we give Nix a shot. in reality both of them are more reserve outfielders than starters though. I hope to see Gwynn traded and Nix become the 5th outfielder. I certainly don't think we can go with 6 outfielders on the roster again. That makes things tougher on a manager than it needs to be.

[bklynbrewcrew]

I dont see Gwynn or Nix on the roster next season.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Its clear by both his actions and by his words that Melvin has absolutely no value for defense. How can one be in the game as long as Melvin has and just completely ignore defense. This team is like a beer league softball team and his teams in Texas were much of the same.

[RU Rah Rah]

Professional Hitter = Fukodome

 

He'd be a perfect fit in left.

http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

Would he really be worth a 3.85-oku salary?

 

[don1481]

"We're not just going to be like hair conditioner and sit there and think that I'm working. We will be working this offseason."

 

I almost choked laughing so hard when I read that one by Melvin. Hair conditioner? I don't think I've ever heard of a baseball front office being compared to hair conditioner. But hey, sometimes you gotta try out new metaphorshttp://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/laugh.gif

[Fatter than Joey]

I have to hand it to Gwynn though -- He has somehow managed to parlay his power of a soggy french fry into making people believe

 

1.) He is a good contact hitter

2.) He is a great defender

3.) He is a great basestealer

4.) He is faster than a SuperBowl weekend.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I have to hand it to Gwynn though -- He has somehow managed to parlay his power of a soggy french fry into making people believe

 

1.) He is a good contact hitter

2.) He is a great defender

3.) He is a great basestealer

4.) He is faster than a SuperBowl weekend.

If he's not the guy, they should package him up and trade him while he has some value for someone that does have those qualities.

[YoGo24]

Some GM out there has to value Gwynn high. Melvin just has to find him and make him look like a fool while we get a solid RP in return