Melvin's End of Year Press Conference

[homer]

Not sure if this is posted elsewhere or not.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=670749

[sheetswannabe]

This just in Melvins comments. Looks like Yost will stay through 08, and Melvin will make a "Very aggressive" move towards Cordero.

I see this thread is here, sorry I did not notice...

 

Couple of good quotes.

Because the free agent crop is "not very attractive," Melvin said he expects to make most of his changes via trades.

 

"We know we have a lot of work to do," Melvin said. "I'm not going to sit there like hair conditioner and think that I'm working. We will be working this offseason, and we have a lot of work to do."

 

"Right now, we have more starting pitching than most clubs," Melvin said. "I've already had clubs calling me and asking if we have starting pitching available.

[berniebrewer4life]

Good to hear. As long as it won't hurt us too much in the long run, i would really like to see them hold onto coco.

[bork]

Last year, our starting pitchers [combined] for 62 starts where they pitched seven innings or more. This year, we had 33 starts of seven innings or more. There are a lot of innings there that we had to pick up, and the bullpen was forced to do it.

I knew it was bad, but that's terrible.

[logan82]

Last year, our starting pitchers [combined] for 62 starts where they pitched seven innings or more. This year, we had 33 starts of seven innings or more. There are a lot of innings there that we had to pick up, and the bullpen was forced to do it.

I knew it was bad, but that's terrible.

 

Wow, that is just horrible. I didn't hear him mention defense at all, except for mentioning Weeks only had 8 errors heading into September. Did I miss something or is this a case of him not wanting to throw anybody under the bus? I would think improved defense would help our starters get through more innings.

[JohnBriggs12]

If I'm Capuano, Bush, or Vargas, I'm keeping my bags packed. I hope the teams calling about starting pitching would settle for those names. I also hope/believe Seattle who's back end of the rotation needs a huge upgrade is one of the teams calling because they have a guy I'd be very interested in who plays LF.

 

They really have no choice but to aggressivley go after Cordero. There are no options internally or externally.

 

Interesting admissions from Melvin and Yost on game management skills being an area that Ned is still learning. No kidding.

[Patrick425]

"Melvin called the starting rotation the team's biggest disappointment"

 

"Last year, our starting pitchers [combined] for 62 starts where they pitched seven innings or more. This year, we had 33 starts of seven innings or more. There are a lot of innings there that we had to pick up, and the bullpen was forced to do it."

 

"Later, he added: "I thought our starting pitching would be a little better -- well, a lot better."

 

So glad to hear him make statements like this. I mentioned in the "Next year's starting rotation thread" that I thought the starting rotation was a glaring weakness and people jumped all over me for saying that. I was thinking "What am I missing here?". Other than a healthy Sheets, do the Brewers really have another guy that you can honestly say could be a number 1,2, or even 3 pitcher? I don't think so, not on a team who's expectation next year should be nothing less than making the playoffs. Suppan might be..might be.. a number 3. Other than that..Bush? no Cappuano? not any more Vargas? no Gallardo or Villenueva? Maybe, but I wouldn't want to have to count on them to make that big of a step next year.

[logan82]

So glad to hear him make statements like this. I mentioned in the "Next year's starting rotation thread" that I thought the starting rotation was a glaring weakness and people jumped all over me for saying that. I was thinking "What am I missing here?". Other than a healthy Sheets, do the Brewers really have another guy that you can honestly say could be a number 1,2, or even 3 pitcher? I don't think so, not on a team who's expectation next year should be nothing less than making the playoffs. Suppan might be..might be.. a number 3. Other than that..Bush? no Cappuano? not any more Vargas? no Gallardo or Villenueva? Maybe, but I wouldn't want to have to count on them to make that big of a step next year.

I am going to go out on a limb and say there are many people who think our starting rotation suffered greatly from having one of the league's worst defenses behind them. Many people have pointed out that Capuano pitched as well this year as in 2005, but was very unlucky.

 

I don't think it is a big step or stretch to say Gallardo and Villanueva should be pretty solid starters for us. I don't think either has the stuff to be a #1, but it wouldn't be a stretch to say they are our 2nd and 3rd best starters.

[endaround]

Suppan just gave the Brewers his career year. Thats is what is scary about next season.

[dadofandrew]

90 minutes later, a recap. Whew.

 

http://albethke.blogspot.com/2007/10/dougs-end-of-season-press-conference.html

[PeaveyFury]

Suppan just gave the Brewers his career year. Thats is what is scary about next season.

 

Yet, isn't that almost exactly what was said here last offseason as well?

[AJAY]

I think the bullpen deserves more blame than what Melvin is giving. I hope Doug is not banking on the bullpen improving by simply hoping that the starters go deeper into games. While I am sure it will help, I hope more moves are made to solidify the bullpen whether the starters go deep or not.

 

Even though I disagree with the decision to keep Yost for another season, I am glad that Melvin at least seemed to acknowledge some of the problems with the decisions. It is a little reassuring that someone in the front office sees what many of us saw.

[And That]

I agree with Melvin about the rotation - who here didn't think the rotation would be the strong suit of the team? Instead, Bush and Capuano fell backwards, Suppan didn't do anything special from late April until August, Sheets was injured as per usual, and Vargas wasn't able to capitalize on his tantalizingly good repertoire. Gallardo, and to a lesser degree CV, saved the day a little, but even Yo caved for awhile once Sheets had the blister problem. I still think we're fine with the guys we have, but they guys we had could have been a whole bunch better.

 

And yes, the bullpen is the biggest offseason concern. I don't know how you can debate that.

[RyDogg66]

90 minutes later, a recap. Whew.

 

http://albethke.blogspot.com/2007/10/dougs-end-of-season-press-conference.html

Great job Al. I really enjoyed reading that. Thanks.

 

[Patrick425]

I don't think it is a big step or stretch to say Gallardo and Villanueva should be pretty solid starters for us. I don't think either has the stuff to be a #1, but it wouldn't be a stretch to say they are our 2nd and 3rd best starters.

For years I waited for guys like Weeks, Fielder, Hardy, Hart and now Braun to arrive and make an impact. Now they have. The Brewers will not be able to keep all these guys in the future, but we know that they can keep them all for the next 4 years. This is our window of opportunity and it is not the time to lean on two guys, regardless of how much talent or potential that they have shown in the minors, to carry the team to the promise land. Young pitchers tend to develop and mature at a slower rate than hitters. You know the Cubs are not going to rest this off season and it may take 90+ wins to take the division next year. I'm not convinced that some mixture of the 8 pitchers mentioned in the article are the right people to get the Brewers to that mark.

 

It's time for Brewer fans to stop getting excited about young prospects that MAY be able to help the team. It's time to go out and get proven talent to fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.

[endaround]

Suppan just gave the Brewers his career year. Thats is what is scary about next season.

 

Yet, isn't that almost exactly what was said here last offseason as well?

What was said last year was taking Suppan from the Cardinals defense and putting him in front of the Brewers would lead to a 5 ERA. Suppan then pitched the best year of his carer so his FIP fell from 4.76 to 4.38 mostly due to him cutting his homeruns by 1/5. And still his ERA went up by 1/2 a run.. So yes if he pitched as well as his did for St Louis this year his ERA would have been over 5.

 

[DougJones43]

I am glad that Melvin at least seemed to acknowledge some of the problems with the decisions. It is a little reassuring that someone in the front office sees what many of us saw.

Doesn't it bother you a little bit that they would acknowledge a problem, and rather than attempt to rectify it they're going to just hope it goes away? If it hasn't gone away after 5 years, why should anybody believe this next year will be significantly different? I'm pretty sure you can get a very good idea of what a guy is all about after 5 years. I wouldn't expect much deviation from what we've seen so far.

[PeaveyFury]

What was said last year was taking Suppan from the Cardinals defense and putting him in front of the Brewers would lead to a 5 ERA. Suppan then pitched the best year of his carer so his FIP fell from 4.76 to 4.38 mostly due to him cutting his homeruns by 1/5. And still his ERA went up by 1/2 a run.. So yes if he pitched as well as his did for St Louis this year his ERA would have been over 5.

 

So that's a complicated way of stating that most people expected Suppan to suck this year, yet he didn't.

 

My point being, hopefully he makes it a trend.

[logan82]

For years I waited for guys like Weeks, Fielder, Hardy, Hart and now Braun to arrive and make an impact. Now they have. The Brewers will not be able to keep all these guys in the future, but we know that they can keep them all for the next 4 years. This is our window of opportunity and it is not the time to lean on two guys, regardless of how much talent or potential that they have shown in the minors, to carry the team to the promise land. Young pitchers tend to develop and mature at a slower rate than hitters. You know the Cubs are not going to rest this off season and it may take 90+ wins to take the division next year. I'm not convinced that some mixture of the 8 pitchers mentioned in the article are the right people to get the Brewers to that mark.

 

It's time for Brewer fans to stop getting excited about young prospects that MAY be able to help the team. It's time to go out and get proven talent to fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.

The thing is, Yo and Villy have already pitched well instead of just being prospects. In Gallardo's case I thought he got better as he pitched more.

[dadofandrew]

Great job Al. I really enjoyed reading that. Thanks.

 

No problem. As noted, it took a lot of rewinding.

[gregmag]

I don't think it is a big step or stretch to say Gallardo and Villanueva should be pretty solid starters for us. I don't think either has the stuff to be a #1, but it wouldn't be a stretch to say they are our 2nd and 3rd best starters.

For years I waited for guys like Weeks, Fielder, Hardy, Hart and now Braun to arrive and make an impact. Now they have. The Brewers will not be able to keep all these guys in the future, but we know that they can keep them all for the next 4 years. This is our window of opportunity and it is not the time to lean on two guys, regardless of how much talent or potential that they have shown in the minors, to carry the team to the promise land. Young pitchers tend to develop and mature at a slower rate than hitters. You know the Cubs are not going to rest this off season and it may take 90+ wins to take the division next year. I'm not convinced that some mixture of the 8 pitchers mentioned in the article are the right people to get the Brewers to that mark.

 

It's time for Brewer fans to stop getting excited about young prospects that MAY be able to help the team. It's time to go out and get proven talent to fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.

 

 

Aren't you kind of contradicting yourself here? We have a window of opportunity precisely because young prospects -- who by definition had never done anything in the majors -- stepped up and led the team. Fielder and Braun did so as soon as they got here; Hart did so as soon as he got a real chance; Hall, Hardy, and Weeks took a little time, like most prospects do, and then contributed quite a bit. Besides, Gallardo and Villanueva aren't "young prospects that MAY be able to help the team." They're young pitchers who HAVE helped the team. I guess I don't get how you can have a problem penciling in Gallardo as our #2 after what he showed this year, or Villy as a 3/4 type after the starts he's made the past two years.

 

Besides, how are we going to improve on what we have? Suppan cost us, what, $40+ million over four years? He did exactly what was expected of him when he signed that contract. He's no better than fourth on our depth chart. That's the price of pitching. I wouldn't rate Cappy or Bush far behind Suppan -- there's actually a decent case for rating either one ahead of him, if we're talking about projections for next year. The only way we improve the rotation is if an unexpected trade possibility falls into our lap, and that doesn't happen too often.

Greg.

[rluzinski]

Jeff Suppan:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/633_P_season_full_4_20071001.png

 

If anyone wants to bet me that Suppan's HR rate doesn't increase next year, I'd be happy to take it. His HR/FB ratio last year was 7.3%. That will almost certainly regress towards the mean (about 11%) next year. Without an improvement in the defense (specifically, the infield), it's hard for me to see him having an ERA below 4.5. Of course, a 4.5 ERA from your #4 or 5 starting pitcher would be great, so I'm not complaining (except for the price tag but there's nothing you can do about that now).

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Best points from Doug:

 

1) Focus hard on Cordero. Priority number one.

2) Evaluating long term deals for Hardy and Fielder. I hope they do it.

3) Evaluating catching position. Estrada was too big of a liability behind the plate for a 280 singles hitter.

4) Realistic assessment of Yost. You may not agree with Melvin sticking with him, but he did mention his bullpen management.

5) Adding a couple OBP guys to the mix. Bravo!!!

6) Trading some of the plethora of 4/5 starters we have for some relief help. We've got a lot of starters...just a shortage of good ones.

 

Concerns:

 

1) He really hedged on our ability to sign Coco. If he files for free agency, he'll get more money somewhere else. I'm not optimistic after what I heard today.

2) Things are so bad in our bullpen that Linebrink may be an option. That will be expensive and likely not worth it.

3) Not a lot of options at catcher.

4) Not much mention of defense.

[rluzinski]

It's a little disappointing that Melvin didn't even mention the defense. It's a problem he has created. I know that it will improve naturally (young players) but when it's as bad as it is right now, I don't think it could ever be even average with the guys they have, where they have them.

[Ennder]

That conference doesn't make me feel better about next year at all. The only silver lining at all is that he mentioned OBP being a problem.