Is it time to trade Sheets?

[endaround]

I want to hear the kind of trade that would make the Brewers better in 2008, assuming a reasonable IP total for Sheets (at least 150 innings, IMO).

Have we shifted to this total win-now attitude? You're right, next year is our best chance at the playoffs in a very long time, and trading Sheets will not help us get there. However, is letting Sheets walk after next season what's best for the future of the club?

 

Yes, Sheet's 150 IP is more valuable next year than anything we get in a trade. But is 150 IP of Sheets more valuable than 5 or 6 years of a top young prospect, plus a solid role player for a couple seasons? Are you ready to care only about the now and not about the future? Its an honest question.

 

I think what Melvin decides to do with Sheets will be very indicative of what his overall plan is. Keeping him for the year and then letting him walk would show he's prepared to go for it in our current window. Trading him would be the option for maintaining a quality roster, but maybe not ever a top roster. Extending him would make me think Attanasio is commited to funding a consistent window.

 

Your opinion on how to handle Sheets is fueled by how you think the team should operate. Russ, do you really just want to go for it now?

 

You don't trade away three pitchers for Linebrink if you're not in a win now mode.

 

[Bucky Rules]

You don't trade away three pitchers for Linebrink if you're not in a win now mode.

That's true, but even Melvin admitted that if it were not for the compensatory picks if Linebrink walks, he would not have made that deal. I heard the interview on Homer's show, and he was emphatic about that point. So, yes... he tried to win now, but still had a fall-back plan, and didn't sell-out the future.

Edit: Well... as emphatic as DM could be -- in an understated, emphatic way.http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif

[lumberrule]

I would have no problem if Doug Melvin looks for a trade partner for Sheets this winter. I believe pitching is going to be very thin this winter in terms of free agency, making Sheets' value perhaps a little higher than what it should be.

 

As far as '08 being a real playoff year for the Brewers and Sheets being a part of it - its really hard to put a lot of stock in your "ace" when he's only given you roughly 400 IP over the past 3 seasons. When you haven't had a full season from your #1 since 2004, I think its fair that Doug Melvin at least look around a bit and see what kind of interest there is in him out there.

 

Lets remember, the Brewers finished 2 games out of a playoff spot with Ben making only 24 appearances...that's about 15% of the games. You can be both in a "win now mode" and still look for trades involving Sheets.

[endaround]

You don't trade away three pitchers for Linebrink if you're not in a win now mode.

That's true, but even Melvin admitted that if it were not for the compensatory picks if Linebrink walks, he would not have made that deal. I heard the interview on Homer's show, and he was emphatic about that point. So, yes... he tried to win now, but still had a fall-back plan, and didn't sell-out the future.

Edit: Well... as emphatic as DM could be -- in an understated, emphatic way.http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif

Yes, but Sheets will bring picks too. The point is in general you trade for like a three year horizon of impact. Meaning that within three years you expect all parts of the trade to have an impact on the club. Draft picks are more for the next generation, ie replacements for those on the team right now.

 

[rluzinski]

You don't trade away three pitchers for Linebrink if you're not in a win now mode.

 

That's exactly what I was thinking. I'm not sure what I want Melvin to do but it seems pretty clear that Melvin has shifted to the "win now" mentality, at least through 2008. I can't imagine how trading Sheets couldn't have a significant impact on the Brewer's post season chances next year. Maybe a team steps up and offers way too much for a one year rental, though. I guess you never know.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Given that the Brewers are on the upside of a contention cycle, and that nobody really seems to be disputing Sheets' effectiveness when healthy, it seems your opinion on this issue corresponds directly to your opinion on how likely Sheets is to be injured again and miss a significant chunk (or chunks) of starts next year. Secondarily, your opinion corresponds to how reasonable an expectation you think it is that your ace starting pitcher to show up for all his starts every season.

 

Me? I'm in the "meh, all pitchers are injury-prone" camp. I don't know (and don't think anyone knows) if Sheets is more or less likely to go on the DL next season than Zambrano, or Peavy, or anyone else whose recent track record includes less injuries and consequently (as an unhappy side effect) more pitches. I just know that when he pitches, he's really good. And I suspect that the injuries he's had contribute to a reputation for injury-proneness that I think sabotages his trade value. Probably too much to get the kind of return I'd want for the best pitcher I've seen don a Brewers' uniform in 20 years.

[naivin]

I'd suggest you potentially trade away some combination of players for a top line starter (who is theoretically more reliable) to replace Sheets, and then trade Sheets to help replace a portion of those pieces you traded away. Not sure why everyone arguing against trading Sheets needs it to be an either/or, or trading Sheets directly for his own replacement (although if you include something else in the deal, perhaps that could work out also). Again, your current roster of position players is really good, and dirt cheap. If you are ever going to be in a position to take on salary to improve your rotation, it's now.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I'll trade Ben Sheets for David Wright http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Roscoe Chill]

Not sure why everyone arguing against trading Sheets needs it to be an either/or, or trading Sheets directly for his own replacement (although if you include something else in the deal, perhaps that could work out also). Again, your current roster of position players is really good, and dirt cheap. If you are ever going to be in a position to take on salary to improve your rotation, it's now.

 

Exactly. It's not like if the Brewers traded Sheets, they aren't allowed to make other moves as well. We all get the fact that when healthy, Sheets is tough to top. The problem is the 'when healthy' part of that statement. Then, when you factor in his status as a free agent after '08...make no mistake, the Brewers are still a small market team and that has to be factored in...it at the very least should make the Brewers leave no stone unturned as far as what would be the best possible haul for a trade involving Sheets.

 

If you told me that it was absolutely certain that Sheets would pitch 200 + innings next year and be available in the actual post season should the Brewers get there, then sure I would say roll the dice and see where this team takes you with Sheets. Every move a team makes is somewhat of a gamble, and I'm just not ready to gamble on Sheets being healthy for an entire year. The severity of his injuries or lack thereof were brought up last year as well...and at the end of the day, how did Sheets finish health wise? I understand the window theory, but I'm not ready to say for sure that Sheets would be around anyway. Sad, but true.

 

EDIT: And even if they do stand pat, is the bullpen good enough to get the job done? Yes, moves could be made there as well, but it's safe to say that the bullpen will get worse off just by what happens in the off season (Cordero and Linebrink leaving). Other than Weeks for a full season, and Hall getting back to form, you can't really expect much more from Braun, Hardy, and Fielder can you? So in my opinion, the maturation theory is kind of a stretch.

[endaround]

People are missing the point that ace pitchers aren't readily available. You can have all the money and still have a bad rotation (see Yankees). Free Agent pitchers that are at least decent:

Glavine (player option)

Pettite (player option)

Wolf (injured) (team option)

Colon(injured)

Maddux (player and team option)

Schilling

Clemens

 

All the money in the world doesn't turn any of those into Roy Oswalt. And the chance any of those come to Milwaukee? So you're left with what? Trading for Willis in the hope he returns to form?

[And That]

Well, Johann Santana is available. If we do trade Sheeets, which we won't IMO, we should at least wait to see what Johann fetches, and then try to get about 90% of that value, or at least try to augment it on our end (say, Derrick Turnbow) to get the same value. I believe Boston is offering something like Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury for Santana. That's not a bad haul at all, plus Melvin may be able to whet the appetites of the team that don't get Santana by saying, "Well, we have this guy, and he's almost as good."

[Roscoe Chill]

See Yankees? They have a bad rotation and made the playoffs, sorry bad example. Colon is injured? Only the last two years, before that he was a horse! Sound familiar?

 

I don't expect the Brewers to land a free agent pitcher. But you don't think trades are possible?

[endaround]

I mean he's injured right now (same with Wolf)

 

And yes the Yankees made the playoffs based off their offense. And if trading Sheets meant signing ARod I'm all for it.

[JimH5]

Brawndo sez: I'm in the "meh, all pitchers are injury-prone" camp.

 

I've heard that line of thinking from other posters, Brawndo, so this isn't intended only for you--but I did a quick study of 50 starting pitchers who are or may be good enough to start playoff games. I excluded Clemens as he's got a unique situation, and guys like Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Hamels, Carmona and a couple of others who have only been regular fulltime starters for two years. There are probably others who I have missed too. It wasn't intentional, and you can look up their numbers too, if you want. But here's my list of guys and the number of starts they have made over the past three seasons.

 

D. Willis 103

Maddux 103

D. Davis 102

Pettitte 102

Zito 102

Haren 102

D. Lowe 101

Harang 101

Arroyo 101

Webb 100

Smoltz 100

C. Zambrano 100

J. Santana 100

Oswalt 99

Francis 99

Glavine 99

Hudson 98

Moyer 98

Suppan 98

J. Vazquez 97

Peavy 96

M. Morris 96

Penny 95

Buehrle 95

Millwood 95

Sabathia 93

Byrd 93

C. Young 92

Meche 92

Contreras 92

Beckett 92

Washburn 92

Bonderman 91

Westbrook 91

Kazmir 90

D. Bush 87

Bedard 85

Halladay 82

AJ Burnett 78

R. Johnson 77

F. Garcia 77

O. Hernandez 75

K. Rogers 74

J. Schmidt 67

Carpenter 66

Schilling 66

Sheets 63

P. Martinez 59

Mulder 52

Harden 32

 

There are a whole bunch of guys who have missed less time than Sheets. For not having an arm injury, he's been shelved A LOT in the last three years.

 

I'm not saying trade him, or don't trade him based on my 10 minutes of research. I'm only here to provide contrary evidence to the point that pitchers are missing turns in the rotation all the time.

[Roscoe Chill]

I mean he's injured right now (same with Wolf)

So is Sheets.

And yes the Yankees made the playoffs based off their offense. And if trading Sheets meant signing ARod I'm all for it.

I'd rather have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun over A Rod and any other position player on the Yankees without even taking current salary or anything other than production in to account right now.

[Ennder]

See Yankees? They have a bad rotation and made the playoffs, sorry bad example. Colon is injured? Only the last two years, before that he was a horse! Sound familiar?

 

I don't expect the Brewers to land a free agent pitcher. But you don't think trades are possible?

 

Difference is Colon has never had a year anywhere near as good as Sheets 2004-2007 seasons from a peripheral standpoint.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I'm not saying trade him, or don't trade him based on my 10 minutes of research. I'm only here to provide contrary evidence to the point that pitchers are missing turns in the rotation all the time.

 

I guess it depends what you mean by injury-prone. A lot of the guys on your list have missed lots of time due to injuries in their careers, usually of the "out for the season" arm problem variety. Smoltz, Morris, Penny, Burnett. Beckett couldn't stay healthy at all his first three years. Even Pettite, a modicum of health these past three seasons and for his entire early career, only made 70 starts from 02-04. Selective endpoints will do that. You picked the last 3 seasons because Sheets has missed time during each of them; is it surprising to find that guys who didn't have injuries pitched more games during those three seasons?

 

Beyond that, I take injury-prone to mean "likely to be injured in the future". Every pitcher is one pitch away from Tommy John surgery at every moment of his career. I view Sheets run the last 3 years, basically, as nothing more than bad luck. I don't blame conditioning. I don't blame a lack of "proven horse stud" skill on Sheets part, because I don't think such a skill exists. I know the luck angle is a hard sell (for my views on the modern human and his relationship to "luck" as a concept, see the Ryan Braun win value thread), but that's my view.

 

If anything, I wonder whether his arm might be in better shape for the next few years as a consequence of the time he's missed. rluz made a good point on another thread - pitcher injuries can be demonstrated to correlate better with innings thrown and pitches thrown than with previous injuries. If I were a Cubs fan, I don't know that I'd feel any more confident about Zambrano's likelihood of avoiding injury in the coming years, because they've ridden him hard and put him away wet the last few years. And it looks like they plan on continuing to do so throughout the playoffs this year.

[Tbadder]

We spend so much time studying trends, and when it counts most, we ignore them. Trade Sheets.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd rather have Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun over A Rod and any other position player on the Yankees without even taking current salary or anything other than production in to account right now.

NDOGG, aside from pure hatred of anything Yankees, there is no reason you can provide to legitimize this statement, imho. You would not prefer a .314/.422/.645/1.067 line (superior to Braun), coming with significantly better (though not above-average) defense, to Braun? Honestly, I mean no personal malice in saying this - that is an utterly indefensible statement. Taking production - and only production - into account says you take A-Rod in a heartbeat over Braun.

[Roscoe Chill]

What I meant was, I would take Braun AND Fielder over ARod AND fill_in_the blank (Jeter, Matsui, Abreu, Posada...whoever you want to put in there). I was commenting on the fact that the Yankees aren't SO much better offensively than the Brewers are. Yes, of course ARod is the best player out of anyone on either team, and of course I'm not taking defense in to the equation.

 

But if you want to argue about how the Yankees have a high payroll and STILL have a bad starting rotation, you have to understand that you're talking about a team that made the playoffs, so what is the point?

 

So, sorry if you misunderstood my comment, but relax.

[TooLiveBrew]

So, sorry if you misunderstood my comment, but relax.

Relax? I misunderstood your statement because you didn't clarify what you mean, thus producing a seemingly absurd statement. I asked for clarification, got it, and in no way got 'worked up.'

 

I didn't say anything about their SPing, just wanted you to explain what you meant - thanks for doing so. The way you worded it in your response leaves no room for doubt, the way you originally worded it was unclear.

[Roscoe Chill]

that is an utterly indefensible statement.

 

This is what prompted me to say relax. And I wasn't commenting on you saying the Yankees had bad starting pitching, it was endaround...and like I said, I'm still trying to figure out his point since the Yankees are in the playoffs, in the American League where the Tigers, who didn't make it, are probably better than any team from the National League that did make it to the post season.

[danzig6767]

I doubt that i'd trade Sheets unless i got an offer that simply is impossible to turn down.The Brewers have a very good chance to compete for a playoff berth next season and the odds of getting that playoff berth without Sheets getting roughly 27-33 starts are much slimmer.

 

Sure it's possible that Melvin would swing a trade that brought enough back to replace what we'd lose by not having Sheets,but i'm not overly confident that would end up being the case.It's just so hard to get a playoff berth without having a No.1 starter in the rotation or someone very close to a No.1 type of starter.

[endaround]

that is an utterly indefensible statement.

 

This is what prompted me to say relax. And I wasn't commenting on you saying the Yankees had bad starting pitching, it was endaround...and like I said, I'm still trying to figure out his point since the Yankees are in the playoffs, in the American League where the Tigers, who didn't make it, are probably better than any team from the National League that did make it to the post season.

The Yankees are in the postseason because they could spend $100 million on their offense. They also spent $100 million on their pitching to get very mediocre results. The point is throwing money at pitching doesn't help if the pitchers just aren't there. The $15 million not spent on Sheets won't bring another top 20 starter because those guys just aren't readily available.

 

[Roscoe Chill]

Doug Davis, Kyle Kendrick, and Franklin Morales started Game 2 of playoff series today.

 

I don't think the Brewers will trade Sheets. But I would look in to the possibility if I was Doug Melvin. Getting a starter, and two competent relievers could go a long way for the Crew...and no, that starter would not be as good as Sheets.