Is it time to trade Sheets?

[endaround]

There is no one they can bring in to replace Sheets. Thats the point. Who will trade for one year of Sheets and give up a pitcher of the same caliber? And the Brewers no longer have any top tier talent in the high minors to get top pitching. If you trade Sheets you kill your pitching staff. 160 innings of Sheets is more valuable than 200 innings of Suppan and you're unlikely to even get a Suppan back.

[naivin]

Didn't say it was going to be easy...going to require some creativity and agressiveness. If the goal is to go the World Series, it's going to cost. Sheets plus a couple of high prospects could look pretty good to the right team. Perhaps there is a team who wants to rebuild, looking to unload a big contract of a good pitcher. There are any number of possibilities. 160 inning of Sheets (even though he has averaged <140 the last 3 years), is definitely better than 200 of Suppan. The problem is, 160 innings of Sheets isn't likely to get you to the World Series. Next year, its gonna take in the neighborhood of 90 wins to make the playoffs. Can the Brewers strategy truly be one of crossing their fingers?

 

Again, I am not necessarily advocating trading Sheets...I just don't think you can go into next season with playoff aspirations without someone else as your number 1 starter. Whether that results in Sheets being a Brewer or not, I don't know (Obviously I'd prefer that he be here as well), but he has proven that he is unreliable.

[rotoherb]

I can't imagine a way in which the Brewers trade Sheets and have playoff aspirations next season. No team is going to trade a pitcher as good as Sheets for Sheets. That wouldn't even make sense. If you trade Sheets then you're only going to get a young pitcher with promise and risk who probably won't be ready next season. Trading Sheets would mean that they'd have a hole in the rotation the size of Montana for the entire season, not just for 5-10 starts.

 

To be fair, the A's were able to trade two years of an injury plagued Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Dan Harren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton. If the Brewers could end up with just a Harren and Calero for Sheets, that would be a winning deal. The other side of that coin is that when the A's traded Tim Hudson the year before his contract expired, all they got was Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas. People like to think that every trade will be a winner and that's just not true. There's probably a better chance of whatever young pitcher they get for Sheets injuring his arm than Sheets injuring his arm. I think they would be taking on a lot more risk by trading Sheets and hoping that the scouting department did their job than signing him to a contract. Now, if he demands to be paid as much or more than Zambrano or Zito, then they may have no choice but to trade him.

[rluzinski]

I just don't think you can go into next season with playoff aspirations without someone else as your number 1 starter.

 

And many of us are arguing the exact opposite. If the Brewer didn't have any realistic playoff hopes next year, the right move would be to trade Sheets for prospects right now. Melvin needs to concentrate on 2008 now, however. I can't begin to imagine a trade involving Sheets that would make the 2008 team better.

[Invader3K]

I guess I'm not hearing a lot of compelling arguments on why Sheets is critical to next year's playoffs. We've heard the same thing the past three seasons "If Sheets stays healthy, we'll make the playoffs". It seems like keeping him the #1 starter next season and hinging the playoff hopes on that, is not a very good gamble at this point, based on the last three years.

 

I know a lot of people here love Sheets. It's nice that the Brewers drafted him, he's an Olympic champion, and he's "our guy." When he's on, he's very good, even occasionally amazing. But the bottom line is that he hasn't been reliable, and I'm thinking maybe the Brewers should build around Gallardo as the future ace at this point. Don't get me wrong, if Sheets could be signed to a modest extension at a reasonable price, I'm all for Melvin doing it. I just don't see how a 5 year, 60 million+ deal is really justified with him at this point, though, especially given how so many on this forum always worry about the Brewers handcuffing themselves with big contacts that have potentially huge diminishing returns.

[naivin]

I guess my position is that the Brewers need to spend what is required to bring in a number 1 or Number 2 starter not named Ben Sheets, who can be counted on - whether the cost is prospects or money. If that happens as a result of a trade and it involves Ben Sheets, so be it. If he's here too, all the better. Now, I completely understand those guys are very hard to come by and very expensive, likely making Ben Sheets the best alternative - especially for a team like the Brewers, but there is nothing to indicate we will see more than 140 innings of Ben Sheets next year, and 140 innings of Ben Sheets is not going to get it done. Beyond that, strengthen the rotation, and you consequently strengthen the bullpen by lessening the burden.

 

Anyone know what the payroll for next year lools like at the moment, once you subtract Jenkins, but before adding in guys like CoCo.

[sweepscc]

If I could get Kemp/Saito or Clement/Putz right now I'd take it in a heartbeat. I would then go hard after Kenshin Kawakami or Kazumi Saito to take over Sheets role. This may be a huge fallacy but it seems the influxing Japanese pitchers are more durable.

[rluzinski]

I'd love the Brewers to aquire a proven ace who can be counted on for 200 innings but so would every other fan of every other team. It's just not going to happen. The alternative is to trade Sheets for a less talented pitcher with a better injury history but what's the point? Even using a conservative projection of Sheets, this is what we are looking at for 2008:

 

Sheets: 3.75 ERA for 150 IP

Replacement: 4.75 ERA for 50 IP

-------------------------------------------

Total: 4.0 ERA for 200 IP

 

Unless you trade for a work horse who's ERA projects to around 4, any trade is probably going to make the 2008 team worse. And if Sheets comes back with a sub 3.5 ERA and 175+ innings (which is still a reasonable projection), you basically have no chance of getting that kind of production in a trade.

[JenksFan5]

The only reason that everyone says that the Brewers will make the playoffs if Sheets stays healthy is because it is likely true. Why would you give a guy up that has that kind of lift to a team? I realize he cannot win games on the DL and it has been very frustrating to see him injured, but everyone on both sides of the camp has to admit that the Brewers are a much better team with Sheets in the rotation.

 

As it has been stated before, there is no way another team will give up a Sheets caliber pitcher for Sheets. So getting a replacement via a trade is out of the question. We do not need another Jeff Suppan or Dave Bush or someone that might be another Sheets in 4-5 years. The Brewers time is now. The team needs a healthy Ben Sheets so you at least have to roll the dice for one more year in hopes of Sheets staying healthy. The only question in my opinion is, do you ride out Sheets contract and attempt to re-sign him midway through the season at a higher price if he would stay healthy, or do you take a chance and sign him to an extension now for a potential discount and hope he stays healthy for the next 5 years?

 

I know it would be a risk, but the Brewers best chance of affording a Sheets caliber pitcher is to sign Sheets himself while his value is lowest. He has had no arm injuries and could very well be healthy for the next decade if he could ever avoid the freak injuries and tweaks. And anyone who questions Sheets desire or motivation to win is just letting their frustrations with Sheets injuries cloud their judgement because Sheets is the ultimate competitor.

[JimH5]

160 innings of Sheets is more valuable than 200 innings of Suppan--endaround

 

160 inning of Sheets (even though he has averaged <140 the last 3 years), is definitely better than 200 of Suppan.--naivin

You'd think that would be true, but it's not necessarily true.

 

In the last three years, here's Sheets' line and the Win Shares he's contributed:

 

2005--156.2 IP 9 Win Shares

2006--106.0 IP 7 Win Shares

2007--141.1 IP 9 Win Shares

 

Here's Suppan's stat lines:

 

2005--194.1 IP 13 Win Shares

2006--190.0 IP 12 Win Shares

2007--206.2 IP 8 Win Shares

 

 

There's a value in just going out there and contributing, and there's no value in sitting on a shelf with a non-shoulder/elbow injury. This year, John Maine contributed 11 Win Shares. Joe Blanton and Gil Meche each contributed 15 Win Shares. Adam Wainwright contributed 16 win shares. And none of those guys are top tier starters in the way that Sheets is supposed to be.

 

 

Is Sheets more valuable than Suppan? I really don't know. At best I would say its inconclusive.

 

I'm not for trading him now, as a healthy Sheets is terrific. And I'm not for extending him now because he hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy.

[Ennder]

Win shares is a terrible stat for pitchers, it actually uses W's and L's unless they have revised it.

[Roscoe Chill]

The problem is, is Sheets really giving you 150 innings (using other examples from this thread) of "Ben Sheets caliber" pitching? Looking at his game log from this year and looking at his quality starts, plus his 8 inning 4 run outing on 6/30...when you add up all the innings in those outings, it comes out to just over 100. And when you figure that he only had two such starts in the months of July, August, and September...are you really losing that much by trading him if he were to have a similar injury plagued year again in 2008?

 

You can scoff at the seriousness of his injuries, but it's now been 2005, 2006, and 2007. It'll be a killer for the team next year to not have him in another playoff race (if we're so lucky) or not be able to trade him for anything because he's hurt again.

[rluzinski]

Simply comparing win share numbers is like pretending that no one will pitch in games that Sheets is injuried for. You need to also consider what his replacement might do, as I did above.

 

160 inning of Sheets (even though he has averaged <140 the last 3 years)

 

What would you put the over/under at? I'd say ~175 IP, personally. It's obviously not as simple as just averaging previous years.

[JimH5]

Some of the 2007 pitchers who had more Win Shares than Sheets:

 

Gil Meche (9-13) 15 WS

Bronson Arroyo (9-15) 11 WS

Ian Snell (9-12) 13 WS

Matt Cain (7-16) 12 WS

 

 

You don't need to have a good W/L record to accumulate Win Shares. My post was to suggest that there is value to being healthy.

 

The top 11 pitchers this year (by WS) are:

 

Sabathia 24

Peavy 23

Webb 22

Carmona 22

Lackey 22

Penny 21

Haren 19

Bedard 19

Beckett 19

Vazquez 19

Hudson 19

 

You can argue with the methodology--I don't know enough or care enough to defend it--but that's a pretty strong list.

[JimH5]

Simply comparing win share numbers is like pretending that no one will pitch in games that Sheets is injuried for. You need to also consider what his replacement might do, as I did above.

You're totally right on that one, Russ--and I agree that an injured Sheets THIS year wasn't as harmful to the Crew as in previous years. When you can grab Gallardo or Villanueva to pick up the slack, it's much better than Obermueller or Gary Glover.

All I was doing was to offer a contrary point of view to those who suggest that a little of Sheets is obviously better than a lot of Suppan. I don't think it's so cut and dried as that.

[Thurston Fluff]

This one is hard to determine without a bit of inside knowledge. If Sheets has relied on natural talent and has not been much of a workout guy in the offseason he might not age well. While most of his injuries have been odd, the hammy to some an extent, is condition related. If Ben is dedicated to his craft and takes care of his body I see no reason any of his injuries should be a problem going forward. Melvin commented on the type of guys he likes to sign after signing Hall to his deal last spring. He said he like guys who listen to coaches and work hard. Those are two things that are hard to knoe as a fan. Not many managers or GMs would throw a guy under the bus by saying he doesn't listen or work hard so it's hard to know who does.

So if Sheets is a dedicated worker striving to do everything he can to stay healthy and get better sign him.

If he likes to go home drink beer and eat doughnuts until a month before pitchers and cathcers report trade him.

[rluzinski]

All I was doing was to offer a contrary point of view to those who suggest that a little of Sheets is obviously better than a lot of Suppan. I don't think it's so cut and dried as that.

 

 

I think that everyone recognizes that playing time is very valuable. If Sheets' replacement would be a 6.0 ERA pitcher, Suppan's 200 IP would be more valuable, certainly. But with several of Sheets' replacements being at least as good as Suppan, it's not a particularily bold comment to suggest that the Brewers would win more games next year with Sheets than with another Suppan.

[Roscoe Chill]

But for all this talk about what the Brewers would be missing without Sheets, we're not even talking about what he would bring back in a trade. I don't think anyone is suggesting to trade him for one pitcher, and replace him accordingly. What if the Brewers could get a potential replacement (or two) for Sheets in a Sheets trade along with another arm (or two)? Yes, the Brewers would be downgraded from Sheets to X (if Sheets is even playing) but they're also (presumably) getting other pieces to "win more games next year."

[JenksFan5]

But for all this talk about what the Brewers would be missing without Sheets, we're not even talking about what he would bring back in a trade. I don't think anyone is suggesting to trade him for one pitcher, and replace him accordingly. What if the Brewers could get a potential replacement (or two) for Sheets in a Sheets trade along with another arm (or two)? Yes, the Brewers would be downgraded from Sheets to X (if Sheets is even playing) but they're also (presumably) getting other pieces to "win more games next year."

 

I guess that is the heart of the debate. The Brewers already have guys that could replace Sheets at the 4th or 5th starter level. Do you really want a rotation of 3rd, 4th and 5th starters (with the exception of Gallardo who is likely a #1-#3 starter)? Now, if you are talking about position players to replace Sheets with offense/defense, then yes you could get replacements, but I think the Brewers are pretty set on the offensive side with the exception of LF and C. What the Brewers need is a good 1,2 punch at the top of the rotation and an improved bullpen. Sheets is that guy when he is healthy and there is little indication that he will start the year in 2008 out of the rotation. I personally would not deal Sheets for a comparable bullpen arm because when overused, bullpen guys will be limited in their effectiveness and without a good rotation, the bullpen will become gassed just like this year.

 

Sheets is one of the missing pieces, he just needs to be healthy, which I know is a big if.

[sbrylski]

"Well, maybe I'm just still mad over his most recent hammy injury, but I think he could have pitched through it. He just doesn't seem to be the most motivated guy anymore"

 

I really am not being snippy here, but have you ever pulled a hammy? It can be hard just to walk around.

Well, he was warming in the bullpen, wasn't he? But yeah, I'm probably being hard on him. Even if he is a wuss, I'd much rather have that than a serious shoulder injury.

 

[rluzinski]

I want to hear the kind of trade that would make the Brewers better in 2008, assuming a reasonable IP total for Sheets (at least 150 innings, IMO).

[Roscoe Chill]

How about Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Heilman, and Lastings Milledge for Sheets and something else (Wise?)?

[Bucky Rules]

How about Mike Pelfrey, Aaron Heilman, and Lastings Milledge for Sheets and something else (Wise?)?

I'm not sure how that makes us better in '08 - which was the question. But, it is some pretty decent compensation.

[sbrylski]

I want to hear the kind of trade that would make the Brewers better in 2008, assuming a reasonable IP total for Sheets (at least 150 innings, IMO).

Have we shifted to this total win-now attitude? You're right, next year is our best chance at the playoffs in a very long time, and trading Sheets will not help us get there. However, is letting Sheets walk after next season what's best for the future of the club?

 

Yes, Sheet's 150 IP is more valuable next year than anything we get in a trade. But is 150 IP of Sheets more valuable than 5 or 6 years of a top young prospect, plus a solid role player for a couple seasons? Are you ready to care only about the now and not about the future? Its an honest question.

 

I think what Melvin decides to do with Sheets will be very indicative of what his overall plan is. Keeping him for the year and then letting him walk would show he's prepared to go for it in our current window. Trading him would be the option for maintaining a quality roster, but maybe not ever a top roster. Extending him would make me think Attanasio is commited to funding a consistent window.

 

Your opinion on how to handle Sheets is fueled by how you think the team should operate. Russ, do you really just want to go for it now?

 

[MoneyballMan]

I'm not sure it's completely in Melvin's control, though, given the uncertainly of his value. If there's an "untouchable" list, he probably has just moved Sheets off of that list and would consider potential offers. It's VERY hard to tell what teams may be willing to offer for him. And if Melvin winds up putting him in a deal, I would guess it's an iterative conversation. If he's after a certain player or players, it may wind up that he needs to include Sheets to get the deal done in the end. But I'd be surprised if he just overtly "shopped" Sheets specifically given the difficulty in determining his value.