Is it time to trade Sheets?

[kmcasper23]

Does anyone else think that maybe it is time for Melvin to visit with some of those teams that were interested in Sheets. Can we honestly afford to have another season where he misses two months and we are terrible during that time? Plus he is a free agent after the season and I don't see anyway we can afford to resign him. What if they could trade him for an up and coming starting pitcher, Left-fielder, and 2 bullpen arms. Would anyone be interested in that? I know the Mets have acquired about him numerous times and I believe the Yankees and Red Sox have as well.

[LS Brewer]

This is a very difficult question, because when he is good, the Brewers are good. The W/L record over the past two seasons proves this. I would hope that Doug gives him a bona fide 3 year offer prior to the start of the season and see if Ben takes. Otherwise, I don't think it will be reasonably possible to deal him during the '08 season when the team should be in another pennant race.

[Bucky Rules]

If we don't re-sign Sheets, then I'm of the opinion that the Jeff Suppan deal was horrendous. I know that was a topic of another thread at another time. But, the whole premise behind my support for signing Suppan was that it did not keep us from re-signing Sheets (or some other player of that ilk). So - in relation to the topic at hand - clearly I want us to keep Sheets and sign him to an extension. Hopefully for Roy Oswalt type money rather than Zambrano money.

[sbrylski]

I don't see him back after next season, but I think we would have to be very picky on the return. Melvin has been saying for a while that we are no longer a team that will take just prospects for our ML talent, and with our position we'll need to get a player or players back that can have just as big an impact as a healthy Sheets would.

 

So I'm talking a top left fielder and a closer, or maybe a catcher.

 

Either/Kemp + Saito/Beimel?

Jones/Clement + Putz?

Hawpe/Spilborghs + Corpas?

[PlayerHader]

Doubt we trade him now with his value being low. We try to resign him, hopefully at a home team/injury plagued discount. Offer something like 4 yrs 43 million. If he doesn't accept then we ride him out this season and hope he tears out his elbow in New York.

[TooLiveBrew]

Mark me down as very interested in Kemp as a piece of a deal. There's already a Sheets thread in the rumors forum, though, and I forsee a merger in the future...[fortuneteller's melodramatic voice]

[JJHardy7]

I think the Brewers first need to determine whether they believe he can stay healthy for a full year in their estimiations and years after next. After they have determined that then they should be able to figure out the amount they are willing to spend on him.

 

If he wants Zambrano money, there is no way I would re-sign him. His injury at the end of this year will probably make it difficult to get enough value for him -- but who knows.

 

I agree that once the season starts there is no way we can trade him unless we are offered something amazing in return.

[Ennder]

Sheets was still statistically our most valuable pitcher even with the missed time.

 

To be honest the injuries don't scare me one bit, I don't think Sheets is any more likely to get hurt than any other power pitcher, thats just how pitchers go. I said the same thing after Jenkins back to back injuries. What worries me more is that Sheets peripherals were noticably worse than in 2004-2006. I'm more worried that he gives us 200 IP of good but not great baseball than I am about him giving us less than 200 IP.

[endaround]

The problem with Sheets' injury was that he was irreplaceable for the Brewers. Hall goes down, not a big deal this year. Capuano missed time? Who noticed? Tony Graffanino is lost for the season? Bring Rickie back up! The point is Sheets' isn't easily replaced. Trading him doesn't replace him, its just bring in guys that are more replaceable for one who the Brewers can't. If the choice is hoping Sheets gives you 200 innings versus hoping Capunao become a sub 4.0 ERA pitcher, the first is much more likely.

[sbrylski]

Sheets was still statistically our most valuable pitcher even with the missed time.

 

To be honest the injuries don't scare me one bit, I don't think Sheets is any more likely to get hurt than any other power pitcher, thats just how pitchers go. I said the same thing after Jenkins back to back injuries. What worries me more is that Sheets peripherals were noticably worse than in 2004-2006. I'm more worried that he gives us 200 IP of good but not great baseball than I am about him giving us less than 200 IP.

I was right with you until recently. Now I think Sheets is just a wuss.

[Oldcity]

Sam, you think he was a wuss? Or was that sarcasm?

 

The dude pitched an entire season with a herniated disc, and put up Cy Young numbers in the process.

[sbrylski]

Sam, you think he was a wuss? Or was that sarcasm?

 

The dude pitched an entire season with a herniated disc, and put up Cy Young numbers in the process.

Well, maybe I'm just still mad over his most recent hammy injury, but I think he could have pitched through it. He just doesn't seem to be the most motivated guy anymore.

[bklynbrewcrew]

Now is the time to resign Sheets. He is a number one starter when healthy and none of his injuries are career threatening. If this team can give 10 mil a year for Suppan i dont see why they cant give Sheets 4 yrs 60 mil. If Mark A was willing to lay down big money on mediocrity which is the complete definition of Suppan then he should be willing to pay our ace. This rotation needs a proven stud at the top to go along with our future ace (Gallardo) and other young stud (Villanueva). We are a team capable of winning it all in the next few years and in order to do that we need a stud number one pitcher to lead the way. With all the time Sheets has missed hopefully he will be willing to take less money. We will never be able to sign a number one type starter in free agency so we must do all we can to keep the ace we have.

[RU Rah Rah]

What scares me about Sheets is when I look and see the pitchers with whom he's most statistically comparable, in terms of performance through age 28. Among them are such luminaries as Reggie Cleveland, Kevin Gross, and, yes, Ben McDonald. Just looking at most of his numbers across the board, he just doesn't seem destined for greatness.

 

But where Sheets is different (as has been pointed out here zillions of times) is SO/BB. His ratio there is markedly better than the other journeymen with whom he otherwise compares. If you really think that's a "pure" pitching stat, then you have a to pause a bit before thinking about dealing him, or letting him go via free agency. (He's #3 among active pitchers, with a 3.94 ration. Only Schilling and Pedro are better.)

 

For what it's worth, I like adjusted ERA -- it might not be as pristine as SO/BB is, but it shows how you're doing, comparatively, against your peers. Sheets' number there is 111 (100 being average). That places him way down in a tie for 31st among actives. (His number is the same as those of Kelvim Escobar and Freddy Garcia.)

 

As for his injuries: no, he hasn't really blown his arm out, and that's a good thing. But, for whatever reason, he just doesn't seem capable of staying healthy. The end of this season was almost sad. You knew something was going to happen to keep him out, and, sure enough, along came the hamstring.

 

At this point, I wouldn't be eager to deal him, but I wouldn't consider him untouchable, either. A creative deal for some young players (a catcher and a starter?) might benefit the team.

[jackalope02ca]

Melvin is going to need to sit down with him if this hasn't already been done and see what he will take fairly quickly. If it's unrealistic and not doable you start calling around. If the deal is right you deal him otherwise you let him play out his contract next year.

You definately don't move him just for the sake of moving him like we did with all expiring contracts in the recent past.

[rluzinski]

Considering the Brewers playoff chances next year, I think 150 IP from Sheets will probably be more valuable than anything Melvin could get for him in a trade. Anyone is tradeable, however.

[rotoherb]

Melvin has to address the Sheets situation before anything else this offseason. Every other decision that gets made will play off of whether they can sign Sheets to an extension. There are really only three choices 1) Sign Sheets to an extension in the offseason, 2) Trade Sheets this offseason or 3) Don't do anything and let him walk after next season. If Melvin has any intention of signing Sheets to an extension then he really must do it before the season starts. Waiting to do it will likely only make it more expensive and may be a distraction. If he wants to trade Sheets then that also needs to be done in the offseason, rather than risk Sheets being injured at the trade deadline. The Brewers are also likely to at least be in reach of the wild card at the trading deadline and they aren't going to trade him in that scenario. But whatever he does, he needs to figure it out soon so they can plan out the rest of the offseason.

 

I would really like to see them sign Sheets to an extension. They are never going to be able to sign a free agent pitcher of his caliber. Even if they just got 20-25 starts a year with a 3.70 ERA, that's worth the $15-16 million per year that they'll have to pay him. He's never had a big arm injury, which is different from a guy like Prior or Burnett. If they can sign him for any kind of discount due to his recent injury history, they should jump at the chance.

[endaround]

The other big issue with deciding what to do about Sheets is that it affects the rest of the rotation. If you sign Sheets, you can trade Capuano or Bush to get relief arms. If not, you likely don't want to lose out on there next few cheap years. Bush's 2009 and 2010 look mighty valuable when Sheets is no longer around.

[JimH5]

I don't see the need to trade him now--or to sign him to an extension now.

 

If someone comes calling with a great trade offer, then I would listen, but I'm perfectly fine with seeing how his season plays out next year and then deciding at the trading deadline, or after season's end about his employment with the team.

 

He's so enigmatic in that he could be entering a stretch of greatness, or he could hobble along for the rest of his career. Who knows?

[endaround]

Because if he goes to free agency the Brewers won't be able to afford him if he's good or bad. If he has a great 2008 he'll be too pricey. If he has a bad 2008, the Brewers won't pay $7-8 million per season to hope he finds himself.

[JimH5]

If he has a bad 2008, the Brewers won't pay $7-8 million per season to hope he finds himself.

 

Should they? He should be a finished product by now, putting up 15 wins a year.

 

I'm not a big Sheets fan, so I'll admit my thoughts on his contract status are biased. With the missed starts the past three years I'm skeptical on how the rest of his career will play out.

[Oldcity]

Well, maybe I'm just still mad over his most recent hammy injury, but I think he could have pitched through it. He just doesn't seem to be the most motivated guy anymore.

His concern wasn't whether he could pitch, it was that he was afraid he wouldn't be effective enough to keep the team in games. I'm sure if he went out and got rocked people would have complained that he should have been kept out.

[homer]

"Well, maybe I'm just still mad over his most recent hammy injury, but I think he could have pitched through it. He just doesn't seem to be the most motivated guy anymore"

 

I really am not being snippy here, but have you ever pulled a hammy? It can be hard just to walk around.

[Invader3K]

I agree with the sentiment that I'd rather just see the Brewers go into next year with him, and see how he performs. They can offer him a contract mid-season if he's doing well, otherwise they could trade him before the deadline if they don't need him. I just am not eager to reward his last three injury-riddled years with some huge contract, when maybe the Brewers shouldn't even be building around Sheets at this point.

[naivin]

The point is Sheets' isn't easily replaced. Trading him doesn't replace him, its just bring in guys that are more replaceable for one who the Brewers can't.

But you can't say that without knowing what is/would be done. Obviously if the Brewers made the decision to trade Sheets, I assume they are smart enough to relaize that they need to add a suitable replacement. That could be done via the same trade, different trade, FA. At that point, that new guy you bring in is the one you can't replace -- and hopefully unlike te last couple years, you won't have to. The real question is, do you roll the dice on Sheets, or roll the dice on someone else? I guess it depends on who the someone else is, and what the oeverall roster implications of any deal(s) are. Personally, the short answer is that I would like to see him replaced. Ideally, I would like to see a suitable replacement brought in along with him, and preceed under the assumption he will be hurt again. That way, if by some miracle he satys healthy you have a dominant rotation, if Sheets does get hurt, you still have a very good rotation, capable of winning. Obviously, the Brewers financial restrictions, make that approach difficult, if not impossible. Then again, your position players are never going to be any cheaper than they are right now. So, if there was ever a time for the Brewers to do something like this, its now.

 

I know this, the Brewers connot simply continue to start every season saying "We need Ben Sheets to stay healthy this year." Thus far there has been no indicatation that is going to happen. What's the old saying about doing the same thing over and over, and expecting a different result?