Outfield Possibilities

[And That]

but we're talking about a perennial superstar here

But he's not. In the past 4 years, Carl Crawford's OPS+ has improved .008. That's nothing. Should the D-Rays be banking on that trend maybe not continuing, or getting pitching while Crawford may not have burned out quite yet? If Crawford goes one more year with the same stats, he's toast as far as trade value. The Devil Rays have to make a very drastic decision here: do their scouts think Crawford can get markedly better next year, or do they think he's where he is? The statistical evidence certainly points towards some amount of stagnation. He's not a bona fide star by any stretch. He doesn't play CF well, and his speed will escape him sooner rather than later.

And if we're talking about a superstar made by the TB area, we're talking about the TB area.

 

I really think he's more get-able than you give the TB front office credit for.

[endaround]

Yes Crawford hasn't really done that much. But he is an All-Star. He steals bases among the best of them. He's under contract for three years at below market (see Byrnes, Eric). And he's the best trading chip the DRays have. They can't trade him for a bunch of junk in the AL East, it gets them nowhere.

[colbyjack]

Debating whether or not Crawford is a perennial superstar, which to be honest isn't really even my opinion of him, isn't really the point here. Even if the D-Rays do notice a statistical trend that isn't exactly promising for bigger and better things, that doesn't mean they're going to hand him away for a bag of change and Manny Parra.

 

Crawford has a blend of speed and power that is so incredibly rare and so incredibly valued by the scouting community, even if it is more than people think it should be worth. That's what makes him a superstar in the eyes of many. Look how much the Dodgers gave Juan Pierre last offseason, primarily for his speed, as he continues to be miscast as a top of the order hitter given the lack of true on-base skills. Crawford has power that Pierre dreams of, and other than his SLG this past year, his BA and OBP are still creeping up. Of course stat-heads don't care much for Crawford since his OPS doesn't add up for a corner OF, but he brings a dynamic element to the game that few others do.

 

He doesn't play CF well,

 

Do we know that for sure, or are you assuming that because he doesn't play CF?

 

...and his speed will escape him sooner rather than later.

 

My money is on later, much later. The guy is an amazing athlete with blazing speed. Just because some speedy guys slow down in their careers doesn't mean Crawford will. Oh yeah, he just turned 26.

 

Even if you think that deal could make it happen, don't you think there is at least one team that could and would do better than Vargas, Parra, Jackson, Gwynn and Estrada? I personally think there would be about 20, with probably about half of the players involved.

[And That]

that doesn't mean they're going to hand him away for a bag of change and Manny Parra.

 

Ok, I even have Pogo on my side for this one - how is a number of major league pitchers, a legit (relatively, I guess) CF prospect and a catcher a bag of change? That's a lot of value for one guy. I don't discount the value Crawford has for the D-Rays, but shouldn't they turn to actual on-field value at some point?

 

Look how much the Dodgers gave Juan Pierre last offseason, primarily for his speed, as he continues to be miscast as a top of the order hitter given the lack of true on-base skills.

 

Are we to presume that every franchise summarily overvalues players like Pierre? Is Crawford even like Pierre? They both run fast and don't draw a ton of walks, but otherwise...

 

He doesn't play CF well,[/i]

 

Do we know that for sure, or are you assuming that because he doesn't play CF?

 

IIRC, he's stated he'd rather stay in LF. So then by extension, yes. I don't want to see him in a position he doesn't want to play.

 

...and his speed will escape him sooner rather than later.[/i]

My money is on later, much later.

 

You and I both know that most of your baseball speed usually starts to leave you into your middle-late 20's. Unless you're predicting that he's some sort of prodigy, do you really see him stealing 50 bases and hitting 16 triples even two years from now?

 

He didn't even do that this year.

[RockCoCougars]

Guess I'll put my yearly "let's get Guillen" plea here. He would be a great fit in RF. Unfortunately, I don't see any way that Seattle won't pick up his option.

 

I'd take Carl Crawford as well, but I think it would take a lot more than talked about above to get him. Gwynn/Hall/Turnbow might do it, and I'd probably make that deal. I think Crawford will end up being this generation's (left-handed) Andre Dawson.

[bigredrobbo]

I'm not saying Crawford is a bad player, heck I don't want bad players on the Crew, but the All-Star thing might have as much to do with every team needing a representative than anything else.

 

Who else would they choose - Rocco Bal err....never mind...?

[ELCABALLO45]

Rays Get (There not the devil rays anymore!)

 

RP: Derrick Turnbow

CF: Tony Gwynn Jr.

SP: Chris Capuano

SP: Claudio Varges

SP: Zach Jackson

 

Brewers Get

 

LF: Carl Crawford

 

 

I would LOVE CRAWFORD

[ILuvDaBush]

I would imagine a package of Bush/Gross/Zach Jack might be tempting.... BACK TO THE AL EAST! But on a serious note, Crawford's value is more at the turnstiles. Fantasy GM's will flock to see their first round pick... And I'm not giving up my Bush for anything less than Shane Victorino (look at the contract sit. compared to Crawford's, though he is being groomed for Rowand's spot.) But again I say, Pat the Bat. Pat the Bat! Big numbers, takes walks... Postseason experience. On a more optimistic note, how about Braunski/Sheets for V-Mart and Grady Sizemore? Offer a one year deal to Morgan Ensberg to revive his career... Smiles across Wisconsin!

[Postseason2006]

You guys serious? So we give guys that are closs to garbage on our roster for Crawford? Pass me the pipe.

 

Gross is a decent player but Jackson didn't exactly light up AAA. Granted, he didn't look too bad in spots for us two years ago but Bush wasn't exactly a stud either.

[colbyjack]

Are we to presume that every franchise summarily overvalues players like Pierre? Is Crawford even like Pierre? They both run fast and don't draw a ton of walks, but otherwise...

 

No, not all of them, and please don't turn my comments into a Pierre vs. Crawford debate, that was not my point. My point being is that if Pierre got a huge contract for his skill set what do you think Crawford is going to get when he becomes a free agent? Teams pay for speed, and teams pay even more for speed + power.

 

And it's weird, it's kind of like you're bashing Crawford in some of your counterpoints, which makes me ask, why do you even want him? The thing is, I would overpay for Crawford because I do believe his talents are that rare and bring a different element to the game that few teams have to face on a consistent basis. Can you imagine Crawford running amuck in the NL Central?

 

As for Crawford in CF, keep in mind that he progressed through the minors with Josh Hamilton, made it to the majors with Randy Winn playing CF and played the next season with Rocco Baldelli in center. I think him being unable to play CF is a huge misconception, he just never had to.

 

I'm going to try and stop and agree to disagree because it's clear we have a different opinion on what Crawford would get on the trade market.

[BrewCrewForever]

I would be all about signing Guillen or trading for Bay.

[BrewCrewForever]

Rays Get (There not the devil rays anymore!)

 

RP: Derrick Turnbow

CF: Tony Gwynn Jr.

SP: Chris Capuano

SP: Claudio Varges

SP: Zach Jackson

 

Brewers Get

 

LF: Carl Crawford

 

 

I would LOVE CRAWFORD

With as much pitching as we have I would totally do that deal for Crawford. An OF of Crawford/Hall/Hart could make a grown man cry.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

pogokat,

 

No Gross isn't comparable to Ibanez because Ibanez has established himself and Gross hasn't. Notice I didn't say Gross couldn't at a later age just as you pointed out just like Ibanez did. But just where did Ibanez establish himself? Answer: Kansas City.

 

The Brewers in 2008 are not Kansas City in 2002. A team like the Royals could afford to let a guy that age play everyday to see if he establishes himself and in Ibanez' case, he did. But not all guys do especially at that age.

 

The Brewers don't have to go the route of hoping a guy like that will blossom. That's the old Brewers. They can get a guy they know will be productive. It's no longer about trying to catch lightening in a bottle like most of the last 20+ years have been. Consistent winning teams usually have very few regulars that you have to include the words "if and hope" in describing what they can do. They have players where the word "should" is much more prevelant. The Brewers have the opportunity with so many young cheap productive players to add "should" guys instead of "hope" guys to fill out the rest of the lineup.

[billyhallfan]

How about Jeremy Hermida...

 

I know that he is young, and the Marlins may not be easy to deal with, but I think it is possible. He slugged over .500 this year, his .OBP was very respectable, and he hit 18 homers, and 10 of them were on the road, away from Dolphin stadium. He hits well against lefties and righties, and he could help this team right away. He was a much better player in the second half...

 

I just look at Hermida and think that they could go and get him...

 

I'm not real sure what Florida is looking for, but this is what I would offer.

 

FLA Gets:

A. Escobar

T. Gwynn

S. Hammond

C. Vargas

(Cash if need be)

 

MIL Gets:

J. Hermida

L. Kensing

 

 

That makes the pen, and outfield, a whole lot stronger.

[colbyjack]

I don't think Hermida is going anywhere. He is a key part of the Marlins youth movement. I think you would have a better chance trying to find a way to land Miguel Cabrera as he's closer to free agency, and wouldn't come without a hefty price.

 

Since Crawford has been beaten to death, what about Rocco Baldelli? He would definitely be a risky acquisition since he hasn't been able to stay healthy, recently nagged by recurring hamstring problems, but he could certainly be a high reward acquisition and would give the Brewers a natural CF.

 

His contract gets pretty ugly after the 2008 season. He's due $2.25M next year, but then has option years for 2009-2011 with pricey buyouts.

 

His deal for '09 calls for $6M with a $4M buyout, and his 2010 and 2011 options (which have to be exercised together) come in at $8 and $9M with a $2M buyout.

 

I could see the D-Rays trying to rid themselves of that potentially burdensome contract this offseason if they intend to stick with Crawford, Upton and Young from left to right. It's tough for us to make this call, but if scouts and doctors felt that Baldelli's injury problems were behind him, again, he could be a very big acquisition.

 

Going back to Crawford, the D-Rays could use a SS, or at least a stopgap at the position until Reid Brignac makes his way up (and there's no guarantee Brignac stays at SS). Bill Hall could be big bargaining chip in a potential Crawford trade if he's dangled as a SS.

[endaround]

Baldelli is much mroelikely than Crawford. It just which Baldelli shows up (if he shows up). And the difference between Hall and Baldellli really isn't that great. Baldelli's best OBP was .339 while hitting .302. And that of course was in a partial year. Now Baldelli is likely better defensively.

[dadofandrew]

Roco would be fine for about 40 games, but I'd prefer to find someone who can play 150 or so.

[Oldcity]

Sorry I got in late on the Crawford debate but I wanted to chime in.

 

The package Toby is proposing isn't complete garbage, but if Crawford was put on the trading back, most teams would blow that offer out of the water. I know Patrick mentioned this, but I didn't see it addressed by those who thought a package centered around Turnbow, Bush, Vargas, Gwynn could get Crawford.

[sbrylski]

For Crawford, I'd bet they'd ask for something like Gallardo+Hardy.

[DannyKmilw]

I know teams rarely trade within their divisions, but how much would it take to get Jason Bay? It was a down year for Bay and I know GMs dont like to and rarely sell low, but with the Pirates cleaning house at the Manager and GM positions does anyone see it more likely to happen? Bay has two years left on his contract 5.75M in 2008 and 7.5M in 2009 which then give Laporta LF in 2010 and Bay most likely a type A free agent, would get the Brewers draft picks when he leaves for free agency(IIRC). I was thinking Parra and Escobar, but I really have no idea thats why I ask. Thanks.

[TooLiveBrew]

Crawford's price tag will outweigh his potential value to us. I, for one, think he's overvalued - almost exclusively because his OBP tends to be hollow (as in, no BA, no OBP). His career high for BBs will likely rest right around 50 when he's finished playing. If you LOVE stolen bases, then sure, this is likely your guy. But if you're going to have a corner OF with little power, I want to find one with good OBP.

 

EDIT: Interesting idea, dannyk. The thing that worries me about Bay is his mammoth regression in terms of BB/K in 2007. After posting 95 & 102 BBs in 2005 & 2006, respectively, he plummeted to a 59/142 BB/K ratio this past season. In addition, his SLUG% really suffered. What's kind of funny is that in 2007, Bay & Billy Hall were virtual identical twins, statistically. I expect bounce-back years for both of them in '08.

[strawbossisevil]

Yes please to Jason Bay. The guy's three year stats are:

 

'05 .306 .402 .559

'06 .286 .396 .532

'07 .247 .327 .418

 

He gets on base at nearly .100 points higher than his batting average, and while he slumped last year, there is no reason to think that he couldn't come back and perform at least on par with his '06 level. Having him in the 2 hole in our offense would be sweet.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not if his OBP were down below .350 again it wouldn't. But I agree that he's likely to get back up over that hump next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

This name was brought up in the 'Melvin Press Conf.' thread, and I can't seem to let go of this nagging thought - what about Josh Willingham? The more I look into this guy, the more I think he fits our needs. While he may not be as strong a defender as Kearns, he's already proven that he can put up numbers on par with or better than Austin - all while playing in a pretty strong pitcher's park as his home field. If we're ready to bump Kearns's OPS up a tad with a potential departure from RFK, it's really only fair to note Willingham's home/away splits (3-year splits used):

 

H: .250/.342/.427/.769

A: .292/.379/.523/.902

 

In addition, his 3-yr. LHP/RHP splits are very consistent, too. He's gotten on base better v LHP, while slugging better v RHP. The L/R OPS split is - .838/.837. Again, keep in mind his home park during this tenure. Imho, if we could swing a deal that'd include Willingham, I think we'd see roughly an .850 OPS (if not more) from our LF, along with no need for a platoon out there. Please, please keep this guy in mind when discussing potential targets for 2008!

 

EDIT: Also of note, in 2007, W-ham's HR/FB% dropped to 12.1%, down from 15.9% in '06. While he wouldn't necessarily return to appx. 16% or surpass it, it's very likely that he'll be somewhere around 13-14% in the next few years, which would mean an increase of 3 or so HRs over a rate down near 12% (I think). Fwiw, he had 26 HRs in 2006 to 21 this past season.

[brettac1]

Josh Willingham's terrific. I'm just not sure the Marlins are looking to trade him... and I think to say he's "not as strong of a defender" as Kearns is an understatement. He's an ex-catcher out there, and he plays like one. I think a lot of us have loved his bat since Albuquerque (or even earlier), though.