2007 Bullpen: Who did Melvin ignore in FA last winter that could have helped?

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin has admitted that the bullpen was a problem for this team. Looking back there were a number of middling veteran relievers signed by other teams that could have helped solidify what I thought before the season was a problem.

 

The list includes:

 

David Riske - He signed a modest $2.25 million deal with an option for 2008 with Royals and posted a 1-4 record, 2.45 ERA, 1.26 WHIP in 65 games for Royals.

 

Justin Speier - He signed a 4 year $18 million deal with Angels and posted a 2-3 record, a 3.12 ERA and a very good WHIP of 0.96.

 

Jamie Walker - He signed a 3 year $12 million deal with Orioles and posted a 3-2 record and 3.23 ERA in 81 (that's right 81) games. Lefties hit .217 off him.

 

Chad Bradford - He signed a 3 year, $10.5 million deal with Orioles and went 4-7 with a 3.34 ERA in 78 games. He allowed just 1 HR all year.

 

Note that both Walker and Bradford posted those numbers in AL East.

 

David Weathers - Signed a 2 year, $5 millon deal with Reds. Though miscast as closer still registered respecatble 3.59 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP.

 

To be fair there were other guys in this category that failed rather miserably, notably Roberto Hernandez and Danys Baez. But I don't recall at any time did any of these names come up as possible signs for the Brewers.

[sweepscc]

I had Riske and Speier on my proposed bullpen last offseason. Speier would have been a tough call for any small market GM though, can't really blame Melvin too much. 18 mil is a lot for a reliever and I never projected Speier getting that type of money.

[JohnBriggs12]

"18 million is a lot for a reliever".

 

Well yes it is. But the year before the Cubs got Bob Howry for 3 years at $12 million and that was too rich for Melvin too. In hindsight, had Melvin "overpaid" for Howry, it might be Brewer fans that would be getting ready for the playoffs. Take Howry off the Cubs and put him on the Brewers and well...

 

 

(closed up some white space --1992)

[owbc]

I used to think that relief pitching could more or less take care of itself, but it is clear that in order to get to the next level, there needs to be significant improvement.

 

Is Wise finished or will he rebound in 2008?

Since Turnbow is most likely returning, where will he fit in?

Spurling and McClung posted decent numbers, but can we upgrade to more reliable relievers?

Should Cordero be resigned or should we save the money to sign 2-3 new relievers?

Assuming Villanueva is a starter, who will fill middle-relief in 2008? Capuano or Vargas?

 

A top-5 bullpen will make Yost look brilliant no matter who he brings in the game, while a bottom-5 bullpen can make any manager look like an idiot. I say we spend what it takes to get effective relief pitching.

[endaround]

"18 million is a lot for a reliever".

 

Well yes it is. But the year before the Cubs got Bob Howry for 3 years at $12 million and that was too rich for Melvin too. In hindsight, had Melvin "overpaid" for Howry, it might be Brewer fans that would be getting ready for the playoffs. Take Howry off the Cubs and put him on the Brewers and well...

You would be complaining that Melvin signed a guy with a 4.0 ERA to a big contract? Howry's FIP is 3.49. Meaning he'd likely have a 4.0 ERA away from the good Cub defense and in front of the bad Brewer defense.

 

(closed up some white space --1992)

[TooLiveBrew]

Riske's FIP and xFIP are not too pretty, either. I think that Melvin's general tendency to avoid throwing money at RPing is great, since clearly many GMs can't stay away from doing so. While I agree that our bullpen didn't work out as we'd hoped, there weren't clear warning signs before the season began. I am certain that over this offseason the bullpen will be addressed, mostly because it (both literally and figuratively) has to be.

 

I trust that our depth at SP will greatly support this effort, though I can't say I see more than one current SP candidate being dealt. Not sure exactly what else is open to movement, which is one reason I love the offseason! http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/smile.gif

 

I love this thread and its concept, JB.

[Thurston Fluff]

Before the final roster I thought the pen would be a problem somewhat nullified by a strong rotation. After the Dessens deal and Villy looking so promising I thought it might even turn into a strength. So I won't even pretend to have an idea of which way is the best route to take fixing the problem. Part of me thinks if we get one or two guys at the back end of the pen who are a little better than Turnbow and Wise the middle guys like Spurling, Aquino, Wise and Turnbow would be fine in that role. What it appeared to me this year was some of the guys where playing in roles they simply weren't quite good enough for. That doesn't mean they couldn't be viable in a lesser role. I also think the rotation might go some ways to making a better pen just by not overworking it so much. Though I thought the same this year. However next year we won't have the problem of limiting innings for YoGa and our fifth starter looks to be Bush or Cappy. Both of whom are more likely to go past 5 innings regularly which is something Vargas wasn't capable of very often.

 

A top-5 bullpen will make Yost look brilliant no matter who he brings in the game, while a bottom-5 bullpen can make any manager look like an idiot. I say we spend what it takes to get effective relief pitching.

 

I don't want this to be a Yost thread but I was thinking the same thing this weekend. If we had better players in certain spots there is no wrong way to go. I wonder how many managers people consider good strategists are considered so for that very reason. So many less chances to screw up if everyone you turn to does the job you ask of him.

[Ennder]

The first problem is you are using ERA/WHIP to judge a pitcher, those are pretty terrible stats for judging them, especially over less than 100 IP.

 

Riske - He has a history of back problems which is why he only got a 1 year deal. In 2006 his K/9 dropped under 6 while his BB/9 raised up over 3.5 which is very bad for a RP. This season the K's rebounded a bit but he still walked way too many. The only thing that stopped him from having a 4.5+ ERA was a 90% strand rate which is basically luck.

 

Speier - He would have been an intresting choice but thats a pretty risky contract. He is 34 years old and is under contract until age 37 with only good but not great peripherals. In 2006 he had a lot of control problems as well which made him a dicey signing.

 

Walker - Walker is Shouse for more money so don't really see why we would have considered him.

 

Bradford - Nothing really wrong with Bradford though if he K's just 4.04 per 9 again next year I bet his ERA is up over 4.00.

Weathers is older than dirt and was coming off a pretty poor year so wasn't a good reason to sign him.

 

Out of this list the only one that really made sense to me is Bradford and well maybe he just wanted to play for a different team than the Brewers.

[Bucky Rules]

But I don't recall at any time did any of these names come up as possible signs for the Brewers.

It's hard to say. I would guess that we don't hear about the vast majority of guys that they inquire about.

[logan82]

We had Capellan in our organization at the start of the year. He did pretty well for us the year before and there was no reason not to expect that again. If he had come in and done as well as in 2006, we have a much stronger bulpen.

[lumberrule]

The key to any successful bullpen ISNT the actual members of the bullpen...its the performance of the starting rotation. Go back to early in the season...what propelled Milwaukee to such a great start? The performance of the starting rotation. Its easy for the bullpen to look good when your starter gives you 7 solid every night, leaving the last two innings to the two or three best relievers you have.

 

Every bullpen looks bad when you have to dip into it in the middle innings. Its no secret that teams hide their weakest pitchers in the long and middle relief roles of their pens; the key to success of these guys is using them as little as possible, and when they are used, used correctly depending upon game situations. Milwaukee's struggles can be directly linked to this. Even in some of the well-known 3 run leads given away, many can be attributed to to the starting pitching not making it through the sixth inning.

 

There is a reason good GM's dont spend a whole lot of money on the bullpen. Unless you're in New York or Boston, most teams have one or two "well-paid" relievers (often the closer and the setup guy, and once in a while a good LOOGY), and the rest of the bullpen is made up of guys very similar to, say, Chris Spurling - guys who arent overly dominant, arent flashy, but used correctly will post a 4-ish era. Most teams in this league could interchange 6th/7th inning guys and get pretty much the same results.

 

Give any manager out there 5 solid starting pitchers who will give you quality starts every time, and they'll deliver a playoff spot, bar none. If Im Doug Melvin, I keep looking at ways to improve the depth of starting pitching on our ballclub, and the rest will take care of itself.

[dadofandrew]

Nice post LR.

 

Also, Weathers said he would only sign where he could close.

[logan82]

By that logic you could also blame the bulpen collapse on our poor defense. How often has an error or 2 turned a 6-7 inning start into a 5-6 inning start. 109 errors is about 4 extra games worth of outs, mostly going to our worst pitchers, and that isn't even including poor defense that isn't counted as an error.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Logan has it right. Look at our pitching stats as a team. Brewer pitchers issued the 4th fewest walks, struck out the 3rd most batters and gave up the 4th fewest home runs. Given those stats you would expect the brewers to have given up about the 4th fewest runs in the league.

 

But we are not even close to that. Milwaukee is 8th in runs allowed. 8th in runs allowed when we should be no worse than 4th. It's not the starting pitching or the bullpen, it's the defense.

[sweepscc]

Our starters were about league average in their innings per start. Our pitching wasn't elite because we ranked 13th in hits allowed, 14th in OPS and 15th in SLG.% against.