Looking forward to 2008 (roster projections & needs)

[LouisEly]

Numbers in parenthesis are those whom I think will stick from their current roster.

Infield (6): Looking forward to 2008, I think the infield is pretty much set with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun. I think two reserves are set also - Counsell the backup middle infielder, and Dillon the backup corner infielder.

Outfield (4): Outfield will have Hart and Hall as starters, and I think Gwynn will make it as a backup OF. Gross will be there as a starter or reserve. Not sure about Mench though, because I think the least they can offer him in arby is 80% of what he makes now, and I'm not sure they want to keep him for $2.8M. So I'm not including him so far. Dillon could very well be the RH hitter in a platoon with Gross.

Catcher (2): At catcher, Miller is a free agent and old, and Estrada is arby-eligible. Sure I'd like them to upgrade here, but to do better than Estrada will cost a lot more than the $3.5M he will cost (either in free agent $$ or in prospects via trade, and I don't think they will have a lot of either at their disposal this offseason). My guess is Estrada and Rivera; I don't know that they want to keep both of them, but they may not have any other options. For those of you complaining about Estrada, Miller's OBP was just as bad and his SLG worse. I think though that the odds of aquiring a catcher in a trade again are very good.

Pitchers (11): Pitchers I think will be kept in no particular order: 1) Sheets, 2) Suppan, 3) Gallardo, 4) Villanueva, 5) Parra, 6) Bush, 7) Capuano, 8) Turnbow, 9) McClung, 10) Shouse, 11) Stetter. I think #1-5 will be the starters, with Bush and Cappy as long men. I think Wise is gone (and I think Bray could do just as well as he did last year) and Vargas will be offered arby but ultimately traded. I think resigning Linebrink is 50/50 - no one else may want to sign him if his price tag is a Type-A free agent.

That's 23. Two spots open, one pitcher and one OF or utility. And both are fairly easy to pinpoint what they need - either a starting-caliber corner OF, or have Dillon platoon with Gross and your last guy is a utility guy like Rottino. That leaves one position to fill via free agency or trade: their closer. The toughest one to fill.

So how do they aquire one? The good thing is that they have depth at SP that they can trade from. Any of Bush, Cappy, and Vargas can be dealt, and they have plenty of major-league level players to trade. I think you'll see a multi-player trade like last year's Davis/Eveland/Krynzel trade, where they will package a starter (one of Vargas/Bush/Cappy), an OF (plenty to choose from here - Mench, Nix, even Gwynn), a reliever (Wise? Aquino?) or a prospect (plenty of AA-A level OFs not named LaPorta) to aquire a catcher or a closer. If you think that Vargas, Cappy, or Bush won't have much value, look at who the Padres had to start today - Brett Tomko who was released by LA. How much did they need a 5th starter who was better than any of the guys they trotted out there - a combined 37 starts from Tomko, David Wells, Clay Hensley, and Tim Stauffer, all of whom make Vargas, Cappy, and Bush look like an ace.

So priority #1 in the offseason, perhaps the only position that even needs to be filled, is closer. Comments?

[TooLiveBrew]

ibtl...http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif

 

I think King is a more likely choice to be our second LOOGY, but that's just my guess. My money would be on Stetter being in AAA to start the year.

 

EDIT: With Estrada having pocketed $3.4 mil for this season, I think it's more reasonable to assume a salary of at least $4 mil., and probably closer to $5 for '08, no?

[Ennder]

I think you are largely correct in your assessment though I highly doubt Parra is a starter next year. He's just had too many arm problems and they already will have enough youth in the rotation.

[lumberrule]

Infielders (4): Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun (duh). I do, however, hope that the Brewers do look hard at improving the reserves for this group. I truly believe Tony Graffanino's injury hurt this team quite a bit more than some would like to admit. Im sorry, and this is no disrespect to Craig Counsell, but seeing Ned Yost have to turn to him to pinch hit in important situations makes me sick. Craig has gotten quite aways in his career based on two postseason series (and basically one swing of the bat in a postseason game), and overshadows the fact that he is really nothing more than a left-handed hitting Jack Wilson whose quite a bit older. He's a fine defender, no doubt, but if Ryan Braun is gonna be lifted in the 7th inning of games due to defensive issues, we need someone who can actually hit when his turn is called upon in the lineup.

 

Outfield (3): Corey Hart and Bill Hall as obvious keepers, and I think Gabe Gross' performance after being recalled should get him serious consideration at a starting job in '08. Obviously, that means we need a RH hitting OF to play facing LH starters...and if we're not gonna keep Jenkins, I have a hard time thinking Doug Melvin is gonna keep Mench - who hardly played at all in September - for $2 million +. I think Tong Gwynn Jr could contribute nicely if given a chance, but I think he's gonna be dealt this winter if the deal is right.

 

Catcher (2): Estrada just isnt as bad as everybody thinks he is, and as pointed out, the Brewers aren't going to find more for what he is making. I would think Rivera finally gets a shot at a big league roster spot.

 

Pitchers (9): Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, Bush, Shouse, McClung, Spurling, Linebrink/Cordero. I truly believe the Brewers will make a big effort to keep Cordero, with the contracts of Jenks, Mench and Koskie off the books. If they dont keep him, I think Linebrink stays and barring a trade or another big name signing, enters spring training as the closer. Either way, I believe Melvin antes up for one of the two because he HAS to. I think Turnbow is sent packing via trade, as he is just too inconsistent to be trusted late in games. But, since he throws hard and is lights out when he is on, I think he would garner some value on the market. I think McClung has done enough to warrant a look as a 7th inning guy next year, and Chris Spurling really isn't any worse than any other run-of-the-mill middle reliever you would find. I would think another LH reliever would be in Doug Melvin's sights this winter, as is another starting pitcher. Ben Sheets has proven time and again that he just cant be trusted, and outside of Manny Parra - whom I think starts the year in AAA - the depth really isn't there. With guys like Gallardo and Villy now in the rotation, I think Capuano doesnt even make the team next year.

 

Thats seven spots open for me. 2 or 3 on the pitching staff, depending on if the Brewers carry 11 or 12 pitchers, 2 bench outfielders, and 2 bench infielders. I really think the Brewers need to address the team in this order this offseason:

 

1. Starting Pitching

2. Bullpen

3. Bench strengthening

 

The Brewers can't overlook their bench next year like they did this year. We need reserves who can hit, not just play defense.

[brewmann04]

i agree with most of your choices and yes they will have to address the Pen and need a strong Bench which i like Dillion for one spot

[Baldkin]

IFs: (6) Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Counsell, Dillon (those 6 all under contract, they will be back next year.)

 

OF: (3) Hall, Hart, Gross are back for sure. Beyond that, anything might happen. Gwynn could be dealt for a reliever. Mench could be back. Jenkins could be back.

 

Catcher: (1) Carne Estrada will be back.

 

Pitchers: I see the starting 5 as Sheets, Suppan, Bush, Gallardo and Villanueva. Capuano and Parra in the pen. Shouse and King back as Loogy's. (4 lefties in the pen, I know, I'm crazy) I think Linebrink will come back. That's 10. Leaves 2 spots open for... who knows who.

 

I also think Rottino makes the team next year as a UT guy. Having him and Dillon could be a boon for double switching.

[Dmiles23]

Pitchers: I see the starting 5 as Sheets, Suppan, Bush, Gallardo and Villanueva. Capuano and Parra in the pen.

I just don't see them going with a starting rotation with 5 righties. I'd put my money on Capuano replacing Bush in that group... although I wouldn't mind seeing Parra there either.

[kgbaseball]

I like the idea of keeping one of the extra starters in a long relief role a la Villa this season.

[drezdn]

Considering how Cappy gets hit the third time through the lineup, I think he makes a far better middle reliever than a starter.

[windiv07]

Keep Cordero, drop Turnbow, bring in another strong closer (hopefully a lefty), alternate closer and setup between Cordero and whoever we get to replace Turnbow for short relief (if the new closer is a righty, get a lefty here). Make them all work for the closer's job and structure bonuses to accomodate the plan.

 

Send Mench back to Texas, and send Jenkins and Wise to the AL too and figure out how to parlay that (and some big bucks) into a #1 or #2 starter. That goes for Sheets too. He is a proven half-season pitcher now. We cannot wait for a healthy year any longer. As he gets older, this will only get worse. We need a Sheets-caliber starter who can give us a full year.

 

Outfield: Gwnn, Jr. needs winter ball to be a starter. Make that happen & keep him. Move him to right next year and platoon right between him & Joe Dillon (who can also play 3rd in a pinch). I know...send Dillon to winter ball to learn right. He is a fast study. Move Hall to left and keep him there. Keep Hart in center (NO PLATOONS...he is an everyday player). If a switch hitting oufielder comes available, platoon Hall up with this acquisition.

 

Infield: No changes. Keep Counsell to back up SS & 2B. Dillon is the second in the platoon when he is not in RF.

 

Catcher: Tough decisions, good problem to have. Miller stays. Rottino should stay for his versatility (and needs winter ball too...send him with Gwynn). Boils down to Estrada or Rivera. If Estrada becomes a dealmaker for a starting pitcher, send him.

[clancyphile]

Starters:

2B: Weeks

SS: JJ

3B: Ryan

1B: Fielder

RF: Hart

CF: Hall

LF: Gross/LaPorta

C: Estrada

 

Bench:

Rivera, Rottino, Counsell, Dillon, Gross/LaPorta, Gwynn

 

Rotation:

Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Capuano, Villanueva

 

Bullpen:

Bush, Turnbow, Parra, McClung, Shouse, Wise

[TooLiveBrew]

Considering how Cappy gets hit the third time through the lineup...

 

You can say this for almost literally every starter in the game.

[kgbaseball]

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/2962/85278629ca0.jpg

 

 

[Ashford Lando]

Capuano gets the first shot at #5 being the LH in the rotation... this turns Bush into the #6 SP/Long Relief. Parra takes Villy's spot in the pen (young guy making the adjustment). McClung and Spurling step up. King??? sans some lbs sticks around.

 

Out -- Wise, Turnbow (trade), Shouse (age)

 

Cordero stays -- Linebrink???? I still don't think the guy wants to be here, but DM would have a hard time letting him leave after what he gave up.

 

Infield -- I think Dillon and Vinny battle to the end of ST... Outfield -- Gross/Hart/Hall are locks, Gwynn barring trade plus a semi-major addition.

 

Sheets HAS to exercise/train this winter!!!!!!!!!!

[Schlitz001]

Can we salvage Cappy please, or find a valid replacement. I think we're pretty set on the lineup, the pitching staff is up to DM and GA. I'll just go ahead and support the graphic a few posts above me. Officially starts our long offseason, and we need a new #2/#1 man in our rotation.

[Ennder]

Capuano pitched no different than he did in 2005, if anything he was better its just people are using ERA and WHIP to judge pitchers which are poor stats.

 

That being said he's still just a #4 guy who does have more than his fair share of problems the 3rd time through the order in his career (he has a trend of this unlike Bush). I'm fine with him as our #5 but I'm fine with Bush there as well.

[davego]

What Clancy said. I really like the idea of a guy on the bench who can give us a 3rd catcher. That flexibility could have help some in the'07 season.

[Patrick425]

Uhhhgghh...I can't stand the thought of Estrada coming back. Although, I know it's probably going to happen. When it comes to his arbitration time I think I'm going to plug my ears, close my eyes, not read any news about the Brewers for a week..I don't wan't to have any idea of how much of the Brewers payroll he will be eating up next year. How can you be a catcher, and not have the ability to throw out base runners?? How does that work?

 

I know, offensively he's one of the better catchers out there..but catching is one of those positions where I would gladly sacrifice offense for defense.

 

I think the Brewers have a very strong core of players in there lineup. However, I also think there is a lot of holes and question marks..

 

The outfield: Hart is solid. Other than that, I'm not really comfortable with it. Hall still has a ways to go defensivly and I'm really wondering if he will rebound offensively. I'm not thrilled about the thought of Gwynn, Gross, Nix, Mench being everday or platoon outfielders.

 

Pitching. I'm not nearly as happy with the starting pitching as others and obviously the bullpen needs an overhaul. Who's the closer?

[rluzinski]

I agree mostly with the original poster. A few random thoughts:

 

* LaPorta is no where near ready, for anyone wanting to see him starting in the majors on opening day. That said, Melvin still may be eying him up for 2009, so a Gross/RH batter platoon wouldn't surprise me.

 

* Capuano is either in the rotation or traded. Melvin wouldn't waste his value in the pen.

 

* Because of his injury history, Melvin is probably going to be hesitant to thrust him right into the starting rotation.

 

* I hate Estrada too but barring a trade, he is by far the best option. We can only hope that a healed up Estrada can bounce back a bit, offensively and defensively (throws to 2B, power).

 

* I'd love to see Melvin do something drastic to try and help the team defense (Braun to a corner OF spot, Hall to 3B, Hart to CF), but I don't see it happening.

[JJHardy7]

I have a feeling the Brewers will make at least one somewhat big trade. I don't think they'll be signing anyone (ie Suppan type contract). I'd love to see them trade Sheets, but I don't see that happening. My guess (like some have said) it will be one of our starters and an OF. For what? I'm thinking a solid corner OF and maybe a nugget relief pitcher. I just can't see the Brewers replacing Estrada after one year (I wish they would) and I don't know if they really would go with Gross as part of the corner OF for the whole year (once again I wish they would).

[twobrewers]

Capuano pitched no different than he did in 2005, if anything he was better its just people are using ERA and WHIP to judge pitchers which are poor stats.

 

That being said he's still just a #4 guy who does have more than his fair share of problems the 3rd time through the order in his career (he has a trend of this unlike Bush). I'm fine with him as our #5 but I'm fine with Bush there as well.

Completely agree. Capuano is VERY likely to be in the rotation. He is a great #5 pitcher - he just had some unbelievable luck this year. I think He ends up competing with Suppan for the #3 spot again next year.

 

If no one else is brough in - either Bush or Villy becomes the closer.

 

Vargas & Gwynn gets traded for a quality relief pitcher. Dillon works on his OF defense and platoons with Gross next year. (And covers a few infield spots) Zach Jackson also gets traded.

 

Nix - not Gwynn stays as a backup outfielder. (He can play good defense and center like Gwynn, only with some pop in his bat)

Parra gets the long set up man in the role or AAA. He would be more useful as a starter since I doubt his arm can pitch on consectutive days. But long man will still limit his innings. He could move into the lineup at the end of the year - ala Villy

[Fatter than Joey]

* I'd love to see Melvin do something drastic to try and help the team defense (Braun to a corner OF spot, Hall to 3B, Hart to CF), but I don't see it happening.

 

This would be the best thing IMO the Brewers could do in the off-season. I'd even like to see Weeks moved to the OF if a good 2b is more attainable in a trade than a corner OF. If the team defense is as bad in 2008 as it is this year -- we will be writing these sorts of threads in Oct. of 2008. I guess I would rather embrace the fact that Weeks/Braun are great offense players that are limited defensively and move them to positions where they can succeed overall. I feel that, "hoping" that Braun/Weeks improve defensively, is a big gamble, and would be the equivalent of "hoping" TGJ hits 15-20 HRs next year and is a corner OF platoon option, or "hoping" that Brian Shouse is an option to get RHers out.

 

I agree LaPorta is not a possibility for 2008.

 

Fire Ned Yost -- I know that this is not a Ned Yost thread http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif -- however, if DM wants to bring Yost back for 2008, then I am holding DM responsible for putting together a BP that is as studly and fool-proof as possible. BP management is not Yost's strengths, and the thought of Yost+BP with a lot of warts = No playoffs for 2008. If Yost brings other strengths to the table, then DM should compensate for his weaknesses.

[lukevan]

C - Estrada
IF - Weeks, Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Counsell, Dillon
OF - Hart, Hall, Gross, Gwynn
SP - Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan, Villanueva, Capuano
RP - Parra, McClung, Bush, Shouse, Cordero, Turnbow

Hard to know at this point, but I think the Brewers resign one of Cordero or Linebrink and take the picks for the other.

Vargas traded for a 7th-8th inning guy and some prospect help.

Mench signs back with the Rangers, Jenkins with the Tigers (I've always thought they'd be his next team).

Miller retires.

Brewers sign the best defensive backup catcher they can find and acquire a RH OF bat to platoon with Gross.

LaPorta is a midseason callup (EDIT: meh, just kind of a wild card sleeper pick.)

Graffanino comes back at some point in '08 to the Brewers.

( Sheets traded for Bobby Abreu at trade deadline ? )

[BREWCREW5]

I am suprised by some of the things I am reading... Here is what will happen...

 

*Braun will stay at 3rd base

 

*Weeks will stay at 2nd base

 

*LaPorta will not be in the majors in 08 (maybe a sept. callup)

 

*Bush/Villy will not be the closer

 

*Jenkins will not be back

 

I personally do not want a Gross/Dillon platoon in left field. I would love if the crew could trade for a higher priced outfielder with a year left on his contract to fill the gap to 09 for LaPorta. I may take some heat for this, but I dont think championships are won with players like gross and dillon starting.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

It is difficult to forecast the Brewers roster next year because we don't know our bullpen. I think that we would likely make a couple of trades involving an OF or 2 and a starting pitcher. I think Bush's dependability might make him more valuable to other teams than he is to us. I wouldn't be surprised if Gwynn and/or Nix are moved as well. I would guess that Nix is out of options (I forgot to check before I started this). I think we need to overpay for bullpen help, so I would guess that we would basically leave the line-up alone. If we can make multiple deals for bullpen help Turnbow may get a change of scenery. Here is my guess on the roster.

 

1b Fielder

2b Weeks

SS Hardy

3b Braun

C Estrada.

rf Hart

cf Hall (I expect a bounce back from him)

lf Gross/Mench

 

BENCH: Counsell, Dillon, Rottino, and hopefully Damian. If not Damian, we may look outside the organization. Really, a guy like Bad Chad wouldn't be the worst complement to Johnny. I could see us send Vinny down for another of catching experience and then we would add another lefty bat. That could be Nix or TGJ. The way Johnny plays D, I wouldn't mind a 3rd catcher.

 

ROTATION: Sheets, Gallardo, Villanueva, Suppan, and Capuano.

 

BULLPEN: Closer? Set-up man? Shose and another lefty (King? Stetter?) Vargas, McClung, and maybe Turnbow.