Bullpen construction for 2008

[recte44]

I think most of us realize that it was indeed the bullpen that did us in. Many have said it was Yost's "mismanagement" of the bullpen. However, I for one believe the onus is on the players to perform- our bullpen (save Cordero, Shouse, and sometimes Linebrink) usually didn't.

 

Doug Melvin's main issue to address for 2008, in my opinion, is the bullpen construction.

 

I'll tell you my plan, you tell me yours.

 

Re-sign Cordero.

Move Dave Bush to the pen in a set-up role.

Keep Manny Parra or Capuano (whoever loses the 5th starter job) as long reliever.

Attempt to re-sign Linebrink.

Keep Shouse.

Check out Mitch Stetter long and hard in camp.

 

Look to a bunch of "arms" in camp to fill a couple other spots.

 

Vargas would be great in a middle role, but they are going to need his salary space to re-sign both Cordero and Linebrink in my opinion.

Aquino is not in my plans, nor is Spurling, nor Turnbow or Wise. They are all prime trade candidates in my opinion, especially Turnbow who will have suitors.

 

CL: Cordero

SU: Linebrink

7th: Bush

LOOGY: Shouse

LONG: Parra/Cappy

6th and 7th relievers?: Stetter? Steve Bray? FA/trade acquisition

 

I know most of you are going to tell me it's going to be a hard sell to bring back both Cordero and Linebrink, but I think it's going to happen. Both like it here, both want to stay. Mark A. will shell out the money to make it happen. Our bullpen largely cost us the division, not Yost, not anything else. You don't start out rebuilding a pen by losing its two most effective contributors.

 

Discuss.

[brewcrewkid14]

Yeah, I think we might need some new blood in the bullpen, and I doubt they'll be able to retain BOTH Cordero and Linebrink. Linebrink will be cheaper and might actually be of more value if u take money into account, but there aren't a lot of closers like Cordero.

 

I hope we use some of the trading chips we have to get a solid bullpen.

[don1481]

So... are you proposing that the Brewers eat the $3.2 million that Turnbow is owed in 2008...?

[LUKE232323]

I'd let Vargas walk, give arby to Bush, and move him to the pen. Get rid of Wise. Decline Jenkins team option and try to use that money to resign Cordero. Let Linebrink go and get the compensatory picks.

 

Rotation:

 

1. Sheets

2. Yo

3. Capuano

4. Suppan

5. Villanueva

 

Pen:

 

Turnbow

Cordero

Parra

Bush

Shouse

??

??

 

Last two spots in the pen I really don't have any idea. Maybe FA, maybe trades, maybe from within.

[MNBrew]

I think some teams will view Turnbow as an asset, and if he's lucky, he'll get traded to one them. And for his sake, hopefully that team has enough depth that he can pitch more often in situations more conducive to success for him.

 

This season has taught us that to be in a place both to contend in September and to play well throughout all of September, the bullpen cannot be populated with an array of players who can only be sufficiently productive for half a season.

 

I like this discussion and I'll add my proposed/ideal '08 pitching roster a bit later.

[sbrylski]

Cordero and Linebrink will walk, and we'll take the picks.

 

Starters

Sheets

Gallardo

Suppan

Villanueva

Capuano

 

Bullpen

CL Trade Aquisition - I sure hope the closer for '08 isn't already on the roster. Chad Cordero, Joe Nathan, or maybe a lesser name currently stuck in a setup role.

RH SU Dave Bush - Assuming Cappy wins the 5th starter role, Bush could be effective out of the pen, though some of his splits are a little concerning.

LH SU Manny Parra - It'd be nice to let him start in AAA and build that arm, but he's one of the organization's top 12 pitchers and should be used.

MR Rubber Arm FA - Wise and Turnbow will in all likelyhood be in our pen next season, and tend to struggle pitching on back-to-back days. We need a guy that can march out there more often.

MR Turnbow - Very frustrating, but both he and...

MR Wise - ...are still fairly effective.

LOOGY Shouse - Because we have Shouse, I'll speculate we won't try to resign King. Hopefully we can return Shouse to more of a LOOGY role next season.

 

That's seven. Looking at that, I think the setup role is still a little questionable. I think its asking a lot for Melvin to find a closer and a setup guy, but if he could we wouldn't have to count on a Bush experiment and just stick him in a long relief role to keep him stretched out. Parra probably isn't ready to start full-time, I think he should be considered the 7th starter. Vargas will almost surely be traded, definately not released.

 

And of course there are always some other internal options like Bray, Stetter, Aquino, Salas, ect. that should get looks in ST.

[dadofandrew]

I don't see the 6th and 7th options in the rotation being used an inning at a time.

[pogokat]

They'll let Cordero walk...he's going to get BJ Ryan money --- 50 million or so..

 

so here's what i see:

 

Closer: Linebrink --- I think they'll sign him for 5-7 million a year for 3-4 years... and he'll be pretty good, but not great...

SU: Bush

MR: Wise

MR: Free Agent

MR: Tim Dillard/Zach Jackson/ Steve Hammond

Long Man: Parra

Loogy: Shouse

 

I think Turnbow is gone...and i think you could easily switch out either of the final two MR guys with a scarp heap reclamation project...i think this is a place that the brewers will make some trades or sign some guys, even though it isn't as big of a whole as common perception has been suggesting...

[TooLiveBrew]

Some ideas for relief arms to add (none impending FAs)

 

Joakim Soria - He's had shoulder problems (didn't pitch from age 19-21), and is the new closer for Kansas City. He's young, inexpensive, and was impressive this season - which likely means he would cost too much to acquire. Given his injury history, a risk, but one with obvious upside.

 

Joaquin Benoit - Already mentioned by many posters, and for good reason. A shift to the NL might produce jaw-dropping results. Relatively consistent peripherals indicate he's a safe bet, most notably three straight AL seasons with a sub-.350 SLGA. After looking around, this is my #1 vote for a bullpen pitcher to acquire.

 

Jason Frasor - Not as overwhelming as the first two, but the Blue Jay is consistent and proven. His xFIPs have been right near his FIPs for the past 3 seasons, and they have been good. Like I said, not overwhelming, but another who, in moving to the NL, will likely see his numbers improve even more.

 

Scott Downs - This is more of a wildcard, as his status as a LHP obviously increases his value. Frasor's teammate has really dropped his SLGA in 2007 (.291 from career norms around .420), which hints that this season may be a bit of an outlier. Not a dominating guy, but his xFIPs over recent years have been quite good, which suggests a move to the NL may pay dividends - plus, anyone that can post a sub-.300 SLGA in the AL is worth a look.

[giffted1]

I really hope it doesn't come down to counting on a starter in the set up role. Bush or Parra should be able to handle pitching in relief for a little while because they've both done it before, but the frequent work could become a problem as the season progresses as we saw with Villanueva this year.

[dadofandrew]

MR: Wise

MR: Free Agent

MR: Tim Dillard/Zach Jackson/ Steve Hammond

 

McClung and Aquino are much more likely part of the April 2008 'pen than any of those. Wise is a longshot, but might come back cheap.

[sweepscc]

If Linebrink is our closer or set up man next year it will be a long one. He's not the Linebrink of old.

[logan82]

I think our middle reliever role is more important than who our closer is. Considering how closers are used, I think there are more important innings than the 9th. I think Turnbow will be the closer and they need to pick up a very good middle reliever.

[sbrylski]

Wise is a longshot, but might come back cheap.

Why would you say that? Matt's ERA was 2.70 as of July 23rd. You're ready to toss him aside after his 10.1 innings since? Sure, he's been pretty bad the last two months here with a 10.45 ERA, but he's been very solid for us for 2+ years prior.

[hardy7]

I really don't think that the bullpen did a horrible job. I think the thing that did us in was our defense. Our catchers couldn't throw anyone out, and it just seemed like that the infield had at least 2 errors a game (I know that isn't really the number, but it seemed like it). I understand that the Brewers could hit, but defense wins ballgames.

[Oshkoshian]

Rotation

 

Sheets

gallardo

villy

suppan

parra

 

PEN

 

LR Cappy

LR vargas or a nugget

lefty shouse

lefty king

MR wise

MR Mclung

Closer Bush

 

Thats a bad expensive bullpen but i think the brewers will have a bad bullpen. I could see doug trading bush vargas or cappy, prolly two of the three for a closer or left fielder

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I am ready to toss aside Matt Wise. He has always done well in the past when pitching in blowouts, but he has never been a dependable pitcher in tight games.

[TooLiveBrew]

? If you're going to make a claim like that, it'd be nice to see some evidence. There have been many tight games over his Brewer career in which Matt has played a vital role.

[clancyphile]

McClung's actually had a GOOD September. I think he might surprise next spring.

[clancyphile]

CL Turnbow

SU McClung

MR Bush

MR Parra

MR Wise

LOOGY Shouse

LR Dillard

[snyttri]

Cordero (3 mil projected attendance lets Brewers compete)

veteran free agent

Parra

McClung

Shouse

Capuano

inexperienced reliever acquired for Turnbow

 

Starters

Sheets

Gallardo

Villanueva

Suppan

Bush

[biedergb]

Starters

Sheets, Gallardo, Suppan. Then 2 of Capuano, Bush, Villanueva, Parra. The other two are long relievers and/or in AAA (ie, Parra). I think Bush would have more use/value in the pen than a guy like Spurling.

Vargas should be traded ( a #5 starter should have some trade value )

 

Pen

Resign Cordero. Let Linebrink walk. Trade Turnbow (a change of scenery may work for him)

Shouse and Stetter are the Loogy's.

We should trade for or sign a guy to compete for the 8th inning job.

Then between McClung, Wise, and some of our AAA/AA guys (Aquino, Bray, Pena) we should be able to fill the 6th/7th inning roles. I think McClung has value, but don't want to assume he'll just win the set up job. Get a veteran for that and let McClung or Wise or someone else earn that job.

[And That]

I've posted this elsewhere, but I'd love blowing up this bullpen and almost starting over with it. First, let Cordero and Linebrink walk. Move Turnbow and someone else (e.g. Vargas, Estrada or a prospect) for a better reliever. I'd also consider moving Wise as part of a larger deal if only because he can't pitch two days in a row. He's a good pitcher, but that aspect of him hurts the overall effectiveness of the pen, IMO.

 

Really, the only holdovers from this year's team I'd like to see in the bullpen next year are Shouse, Parra and Bush (and maybe Wise). McClung, Spurling and Aquino could put it together at some point, but they are all a little to fringy for my tastes. I don't think King will be brought back with Parra and Shouse already around and Stetter, Hammond, Narron and Miller all on the cusp of LOOGYness.

 

I've become obsessive about trading for Joe Nathan, but there's a number of guys (including some undervalued ones) they could target through trades. I'll also throw out the names Rudy Seanez, Ron Mahay (yah, I know he's a lefty too) and Luis Vizcaino (yes, that Luis Vizcaino). Plus I'd like to see them take a flier on Victor Zambrano and turn him back into a reliever, a role he had success in early on in his career. Heck, Bob Wickman might even be willing to come back.

[sheetswannabe]

If Bush is a closer or setup Ill scream. I think Brewers will sign a free agent.

Closer: McClung

Setup: Wise

 

Scares me saying that, but I see it happening

[biedergb]

We still have another year or two for the core to be relatively cheap, so I say let Jenkins, Mench, Turnbow contracts go (Jenks as FA, and trade the other two as part as package deals), then take the money and re-sign Cordero. We know what we have in him. The parts for the rest of the bullpen holes can be veteran and prospect types who may benefit from being elsewhere. I like Nathan, but as was pointed out in the trade forum, why trade prospects for a closer making $7 million who's going to be FA next year, when we can try to sign Cordero for equal money without giving up prospects?