Minor League Showdown: Mat Gamel / Taylor Green

[pogokat]

I'd like to do a little head to head with some of our current prospects. So, I'll throw out a couple names and then I to discuss who we like better and why.

 

The Farm System is certainly different than it has been in years past, but i think there is plenty of excitement left. So, lets learn about some of these guys!

 

Ok: Taylor Green or Mat Gamel?

 

I'll be back with my comments later on...

[agent39]

Green, because I'm his agent.

[pogokat]

oh hah....give me some more

[molitor fan]

This is certainly an interesting matchup, as I was shocked to see how evenly matched their performances were this year. Going in, as a huge Gamel fan, I would have thought this would be an easy win for Gamel. Looking through the season stats, Green may actually get my edge if solely based on season stats.

 

The wildcard is the fact that Green has basically came out of nowhere, after a very modest debut with Helena as a 19 year old - with Green posting a pedestrian .636 OPS. Gamel, who several posters here felt would get to the majors before Braun when he was drafted, has been a steady bat, and a shaky glove through his Brewer career.

 

Both players ranked in the top 7 in their league in OPS, with Green 7th (and the youngest player in the top 8), and Gamel 6th and missing being the youngest in the top 8 by 1 OPS point. So we have similar statistical seasons from players that found league success at a very young age. Both lefty hitters are "clutch" hitters, with Green hitting .370 with trunners in scoring position.

 

The difference in pushing me grudgingly towards the shorter (5'10) Green is the defensive differential, with Gamel struggling in the field, whereas Green reportedly handles the position well. My view might be changed if I had an extended in-person look at the players, but from where I am sitting now, I would give the slightest edge in this battle to the Canadian Green.

[biedergb]

If this is a 3rd baseman showdown, then Green -- he is younger, and better defensively. But if this is just as a prospect, then Gamel. He is a great pure hitter, but may not be a 3rd baseman in his future. That's just my opinion, mostly based on stats and other people's account of these players (as I've never seen either play live).

[gregmag]

Great question by pogokat and excellent analysis by molitor fan.

 

We have a basis for directly comparing the two players: both played their age 20 seasons at Charleston. Green did better -- .922 OPS to Gamel's .824. In addition, Green was three months younger; and, as molitor fan emphasized, he can play defense. Those are all very good reasons to prefer Green, but I'm going to play the devil's advocate and pick Gamel.

 

First of all, Green's superior offensive season at age 20 rested almost entirely on batting average. Green outhit Gamel at WV .327 to .286; but Green's advantage in secondary average was only .305 to .300, basically a wash. Batting averages can fluctuate a lot, certainly for young players, so for me that takes most of the air out of Green's 100-point OPS advantage at age 20.

 

Second, Gamel makes up some of Green's defensive edge with a speed edge. Green hasn't stolen a base in six tries over two years; Gamel's no Rickie Weeks, but he has stolen 9 and 13 over the past two seasons. By itself, of course, that doesn't begin to offset the greater value of Green's superior defense. What it does, however, is suggest that Gamel has a skill Green lacks. As biedgergb said, Green is a better prospect if we need a 3b. But with all the positional unpredictabilities of player development, there's a case for picking the guy who can run a little over the guy who can play one position well.

 

Finally, Gamel has taken the next step and excelled at a higher level. This isn't to knock Green, or to argue that his great year may be a fluke. Gamel has simply had an opportunity Green hasn't had yet. If Gamel had fallen down, that would elevate his competition (see Fermaint, Charlie); but Gamel stepped up, and that sets his competition back. In fact, Gamel stepped way up -- an .850 OPS at Brevard at age 21 compares very favorably to Ryan Braun (.778 at age 22), although you can't make too much of that. The bottom line is that both guys are on track for success, but Gamel's track is longer, and this early in both careers that makes him a better bet.

 

It's a great, close comparison, but I give the edge to Gamel.

 

Greg.

[pogokat]

just a few notes from personal observation:

 

--- Green gets the nod on defense because he fields the ball a lot more cleanly...Green may not be a fast runner, but like JJ Hardy, he has good instincts and quick reflexes...he also releases the ball a ton quicker than gamel...he can play 2b..that's not a claim gameel could ever dream of making.

 

---Gamel is a slugger...his power numbers suffeered in the first half at brevard county, but he's still a power guy... While Gamel has a big cut, he is still very quick with the baat...he can hit, no doubt, but i'm not sure his bat compares that closely to taylor's. It's sort of amazing how close their stats came out...taylor's a totally different hitter. Taylor sprays the ball...and puts it in play... gamel just kills it. Both of these qualities are great, so i'd call it a draw

 

---Another thing to note is that Taylor spent the first half of the year hitting 9th...with a terrific group of players surrounding him...he definitely got good pitches because no one was walking him to face darren ford in the first part of thee season...Gamel was a midddle of the order guy in the sally league and the Fsl...

 

---While Green seemingly came out of nowhere this year, it's obvious that the brewers think very highly of him...its hard to give gamel more credit than greeen based on perceived prospect status because we didnt know anything about taylor before the year...clearly, he was well scouted and a good draft pick...just because the brewers were able to sneak him by a bunch of teams instead of drafting him early in the draft doees not necessarily illustrate the teams opinion of him.

 

---Personality wise, both guys are very nice. Taylor may be the most humblee guy in the system...i think his desire to play ball combined with his work ethic is a decided plus.

 

this is an extremely tough one...i had gamel way ahead of taylor all year, but i think it is closer than that...taylor's going to stick in the infield, and i think that gives him the slightest edge...we'll have to revist this next year..

[And That]

I'll have some more thoughts on this later, but really we're talking about a LF prospect vs. a 2B prospect. No, I'm not saying Gamel couldn't be a major league 3B, but as long as he's with Milwaukee, he's a LF prospect. And that's taken even further with Green - he would have to get ahead of both Braun and Gamel.

[pogokat]

of course, of the three Taylor may be the only one who could ffield at a .950 clip in the bigs

[Katuluu]

Mat Gamel. Very simple explination why. My name is Matt Gamble. That means I am potentially 2 letters away from a Major League career.

 

I think my logic speaks for itself.

[wvpowerblkwel]

I got to watch both of these guys for a full season pass through Charleston....here's my observations. Defensively the hands seem to go for Green...however, does anyone have the stats on attempts vs. errors? Green seemed not flashy but steady defensively. Gamel is more a slugger, Green a higher average guy, but I give Gamel the advantage here simply because he did it not only one level higher, but two this year! Both seem to be quality guys, and both have played on VERY talented teams top to bottom over the last couple seasons. My take after watching the last two seasons of WV Power ball, is that the Brewers have a LOT of very talented young guys having come through here... Braun, Gallardo, Inman, Thatcher, Salome, Green, Chapman, Gamel, Cain, Ford, Brantley and most notedly in my book, LaPorta...so to me, the proof is in what can you do at the noted AA jumping off point....I'd say Braun, Gallardo, and Thatcher have proven themselves, Gamel and Brantley didn't disappoint in my book on their trip to AA...the rest is yet to come, but after watching all the guys listed, I'd say LaPorta is next to the bigs in my book, and on the actual question of this thread (sorry for the off point discussion), Gamel gets the edge for the end of this season! Think about it guys though, I named an even dozen guys who have caught my eye in Charleston (low A) the last 3 season, of which 3 have been already successful in the bigs...that's impressive (as long as you don't trade all of them away!)

[Kevbo74]

This is the first year I took notice of Green, and I surely liked what I saw. I didn't really start paying attention to him until the season was half over. Even then, I was just watching box scores and reading wraps. I'll have to take everyone's word that he's better defensively, coupled with the fact that it isn't hard to believe one bit. heheh.

I liked Gamel from the get-go this year, loved the hitting streak, loved that one week where he doubled his homerun totals, and REALLY loved the way he stepped up took charge of the Manatees in thier last playoff win. That was a memorable game, and I love the whole grit and determination thing there. Then he came up another level and played in another playoff series? Sweet. Sadly he ended with a sombrero, but then he hit 2 homers tonite.

Taylor has the tools to climb onto my mancrush list, but it will take another season. I have all the confidence he can repeat, or even better his 07 campaign, but if my vote counts, I go with Mat Gamel winning this showdown.

[And That]

I'll finish up my thoughts on this:

 

Taylor Green was injured during the '06 campaign, so clearly we never got to see the kind of output he was capable of. He came into this year expecting to be a second baseman, but was turned into a three bagger at the end of camp. That's a lot to overcome in your inaugural full season campaign. Green has shown he is capable of being a very good baseball player in spades. Now, does that mean he's a capable third baseman? I tend to doubt he remains a third base prospect for the reasons I listed above. Does that mean he's a capable second base prospect? I tend to think so, but even there he's stuck behind Weeks and Iribarren at the moment. So, at the moment I see him as a second baseman playing out of position that will eventually be a very, very good utility prospect. If Taylor shows next season that he can also handle a little shortstop and can grin and bear the FSL, he basically has his ticket stamped for the bigs. He appears to have the requisite power to make it at the big league level as a middle infielder. Now he could blossom even further and make himself into a hitter who can play a number of positions, but to me he's not there yet. I'd like to see him get through the FSL with some Gillespie-esque production and we'll take it from there. I'm a huge Taylor Green fan. As a prospect, I'd give him a B.

 

Mat Gamel is a hitter. If you're a baseball, Mat Gamel will bash you upside the head and hit you into a swamp. Mat also shows increasing plate discipline, and might come close to an even BB/K ratio next year in Huntsville. And keep in mind that Mat only turned 22 in July - in terms of age, he's not all that far behind Ryan Braun's progression to the big leagues. Mat Gamel will hit for power, a decent average, and will draw a good number of walks in his prime. The obvious strike against Mat is his defense. Unlike Taylor Green, who is a solid defensive thirdbaseman with plus tools at second, Gamel is limited to third base at best, and in all likelihood a corner outfield spot down the road in this organization. But that's fine. Mat Gamel's bat profiles just fine in LF or RF. If he proves he has the arm and range to play in right, it's not difficult to imagine a LaPorta-Hart-Gamel outfield alignment in a few years. If he proves he can play third base, he may be more valuable as trade bait unless the Brewers decide Braun is better in the outfield himself. As a prospect, I'd give him a B+, ranging to an A-.