San Diego vs Milwaukee.

[RoseBowlMtg]

I have always been impressed with how successful San Diego playing in a much tougher ball park and with players who don't hit a lot of home runs. They seem to do the little things well while the Brewers will score in bunches but will leave runners stranded while they swing for the fences. I think Ryan Braun's quote sums it up perfectly: "I swing the same way with two strikes." Braun has had an incredible rookie year but 63% of his AB's are outs and mostly unproductive. Other teams seem to play the ABC (get on, move him over, get him in) game better.

 

A quick look at OPS+ says what we know:

 

Milwaukee: 106

San Diego: 98

 

OPS+ with risp:

 

Milwaukee: 107

San Diego: 118

 

Is it a learned quality these young hitters will acquire or will their success stunt their development? How do you tell young hitters hitting so well that they could be so much more productive?

 

Any thoughts?

[RoseBowlMtg]

This got me curious so I looked up how other teams have done with their OPS+ and OPS+ with risp:

 

......OPS+, risp OPS+ (dif)

Milw: 106, 107 (+1)

Ariz: 88, 106, (+18 )

Atl: 108, 121, (+13)

Bos: 110, 108 (-2)

Cubs: 97, 107 (+10)

Clev: 106, 94, (-12)

Col: 103, 101 (-2)

Det: 111, 116 (+5)

Ang: 106, 98 (-8 )

LA: 94, 103 (+9)

MN: 92, 112 (+20)

Mets: 108, 106 (-2)

Yanks: 121, 100 (-21)

A's: 101, 97 (-4)

Phil: 112, 98 (-14)

SD: 98, 118, (+20)

Cards: 96, 106, (+10)

Tex: 96, 121 (+25)

Tor: 93, 110 (+17)

 

 

In order for greatest improvements in risp OPS+

 

1: Tex: +25

2: Twins: +20

2: SD: +20

4: Az: +18

5: Tor: +17

6: Atl: +13

7: Cards: +10

7: Cubs: +10

9: LA: +9

10: Det: +5

11: Milw: +1

12: Mets: -2

12: Col: -2

12: Bost: -2

15: A's: -4

16: Angels: -8

17: Clev: -12

18: Phil: -14

19: Yanks: -21

 

The Yanks and Phillies are the best in non risp so that shows their over all power while on the top Arizona and SD have outperformed expectations and their hitting with risp is key.

 

What do these numbers tell you?

[TooLiveBrew]

Clev: 106, 94, (-12)

Bos: 110, 108 (-2)

Ang: 106, 98 (-8 )

Yanks: 121, 100 (-21)

Phil: 112, 98 (-14)

 

The numbers tell me that unless your OPS+ is below-average to begin with (SD, Az, ChC), you needn't worry about it dropping off w/RISP. Out of that list, it looks as though Atl.'s production is the most desirable, second perhaps to NYY, since I'd imagine most hitting situations occur with the bases empty.

[RoseBowlMtg]

2Live thanks for discussing. I agree with you the teams who have a high OPS+ are very good teams to begin with so their risp numbers don't matter as much since the majority of the time they are in non-risp positions.

 

It is interesting how successful the lesser teams are who do hit well with risp and how well they have done. This little look at stats is by no means complete since it doesn't take into effect pitching and defense but by watching SD and Milwaukee play you see the different approaches at the plate and will probably see a sweep by SD. How many times have we gotten up by a big inning only to go 5-6 innings without anything as we swing for the fences? I wonder if smart approaches and going with pitches with two strikes is in the future for this team.

[TooLiveBrew]

I sure hope that's in the future for this team, RBM. And I'm sure glad your sweep prediction didn't come true!

[RoseBowlMtg]

2Live I was very impressed how the Crew played the end of Saturday's game and on Sunday. Unlike Cincy and other teams the Brewers played tough to the end which was great. Interesting how they played better after the pressure was eliminated. This team has so much potential if each player learns from this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

agreed on that, RBM. I think as a fan it's easy to forget that experience does count in a playoff hunt. While our youngsters produced well offensively, I hope the defense can improve, which will obviously directly improve the pitching. Never before have I underestimated defense so much. It's really tough to think about the fact that our pitching and offense were very solid this year, but the defense was shoddy enough to cancel that out. Put us in any other division in baseball and there'd have been zero stress coming down the stretch, as we'd have been decidely out of the running.

[rluzinski]

Interesting how they played better after the pressure was eliminated.

 

the result of two games really doesn't tell us much either way, IMO.

[RoseBowlMtg]

Of course rlu but how many game winning hits with two outs in the ninth did we have this year? I thought I heard they were something like 0-59 when losing after 8. To do it on fan appreciation night by a player on the fringe of sticking with this team vs a team who was ready to celebrate was a bit better than how Cincy performed in their last series.

 

Then on Sunday they blew out SD who if they won would have been in the playoffs. The only games they won prior to that from Sept 1 were:

 

12-3

7-4

5-3

14-2

4-3

10-5

5-3

5-2

6-0

9-1

4-1

13-5

9-1

 

The only game winning game was the 4-3 win on Sept 8th with Weeks tripling in Counsell. Excitement and finishing strong was great for the fans and players albeit only two games.

[sbrylski]

0-59

 

Bad, but really small sample.

 

They were bad then, but that doesn't mean they'll be bad tomorrow.

[TooLiveBrew]

Isn't the issue of predictive v. descriptive more at play there, sbryl, than a small sample? 59 games is quite a bit when you consider only 162 in a season.

[sbrylski]

Isn't the issue of predictive v. descriptive more at play there, sbryl, than a small sample? 59 games is quite a bit when you consider only 162 in a season.

Oh whoops, I thought he was saying 0-59 for game winning hits or something. 59 AB's is a small sample.

[TooLiveBrew]

http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/laugh.gif You know what, sbryl, I hadn't even considered the way you interpreted that. Guess we'll have to wait for RBM to know for sure...

[rluzinski]

Every year some team's offense is singled out for having scored more runs than their raw stats would suggest (which is usually a result of better than expected production with runners on base). The problem is, it's not really a reflection of some team skill to hit situationally. When you have 30 teams, for a given year, some will randomly hit worse with runners on, some will hit about the same and some will hit better. For instance, I will give you the rluz guarantee that the Padres offense will not have the same OPS+ gap next year. In fact, if you look at the extreme ends of the previous list:

 

1: Tex: +25

2: Twins: +20

2: SD: +20

19: Yanks: -21

 

I'd be willing to wager that all 4 team's will regress towards the mean (expected OPS+ diff is a bit over 0). Milwaukee was very close to expected.

 

Does that mean I don't think some players are better at adjusting their approach in certain situations? Of course not. I just think the whole thing is grossly overstated.

[TooLiveBrew]

What I wonder about in this regard is whether or not it's even possible to be able to predict which teams will have years like Tex., Minn., etc. - or if the best that can be done is take teams who project to have low(er/ish) OPS+, and then just randomly guess which ones will produce over their heads w/RISP.

 

(Or for that matter, vice versa - which teams will drop in OPS+ w/ RISP.)