How dire is the bullpen situation for 2008?

[sbrylski]

I still like Wise, but he and Turnbow have to be decently rested between appearances. So I think a rubber arm MR would be a high priority. Also, obviously, we need to replace Cordero. After that, I think we could be "okay" in the pen, as I'm thinking if we use Parra in there he could be a solid setup guy. If Melvin really wanted to fix the pen, he'd add another top setup arm as well, but I don't think Melvin is one to add three relievers in an offseason that are locks to make the squad.

 

New Closer

Rubber Arm

Bush - Long reliever, 6th starter

Parra

Shouse

Wise

Turnbow

Maybe King

Stetter

Bray

 

Not a killer list to build a pen from, but who's team has a killer list?

[Roscoe Chill]

I guess I'm not being clear on what I am suggesting regarding Sheets. To me, the Brewers need arms...plural. Especially when you take in to consideration that Cordero is probably gone. Linebrink is probably gone. Turnbow is bascially not good, Wise seems useless, etc. There are people on this site that could come up with specific names a lot better than I could. But say, the Brewers trade Sheets to the Mets for Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, and [fill in the blank]. Again, I have no idea if that is a realistic offer or not. But if it were, and it could be done, or something similar could be done, maybe even with another team, then you have a starter to replace Sheets in the rotation, obviously not as good as Sheets right now, but who knows what body part Sheets will injure next? And you also get two arms to throw in the bullpen mix.

 

Again, I don't want to turn this in to a trade Sheets thread, I'm just giving an example of how the bullpen could be improved through a trade of a piece of the team that has value...of course if they keep Sheets, and he gets hurt in the middle of the year again, he has no value...and he's not really worth resigning. Just something to think about.

[twobrewers]

Again, I don't want to turn this in to a trade Sheets thread, I'm just giving an example of how the bullpen could be improved through a trade of a piece of the team that has value...of course if they keep Sheets, and he gets hurt in the middle of the year again, he has no value...and he's not really worth resigning. Just something to think about.

I don't think getting relievers for Ben will result in anything close to his value. (Of course, his value is highly debatable as well.) But I don't think you can trade a potential ace, but pullben arms.

 

I think the more likely scenario is that Vargas ends up getting traded for two decent relief pitchers. (Perhaps on a Matt Wise level - you know, before he sucked)

[Roscoe Chill]

I didn't say trade Sheets for three relievers. I said for three arms. The example I brought up with Mike Pelfrey (again, not sure if it's realistic) would mean a top notch starting pitching prospect along with a couple more arms, which could be relievers for life...or relievers to work in a la Villanueva.

 

EDIT:

To put in to terms to make myself more clear, how about using the Brewers organization as an example: Carlos Villanueva, Manny Parra, and Zach Jackson types. Three arms like that.

[patrickgpe]

the easy answer is we don't know. Cordero and Linebrink are free agents so alot depends on what happens to those 2. Turnbow will most likely be back. Shouse just turned 39 but i would like to see him back and he has proven that he can still pitch. Nobody knows if Wise is ever going to get his head on straight but i think he should be given a chance to in spring training. Besides Sheets, Suppan, Villaneuva and Gallardo, I could see any of the starters in the long man role in the pen. Then you have a bunch of guys like McClung, Aquino, Spurling which can easily be replaced. Its too early to panic for 08 since we don't know what Ned has in mind.

[logan82]

One reason the Cubs have been doing so well is the fact they have Marmol, who basically gives up no runs and can pitch more than one inning if need be. We dont have anything close to a guy like that.

 

We did for the first half of the season. A guy named Villanueva. Not quite as good, but filled in quite nicely. I don't think it is a coincidence our bulpen was tough in the first half and bad in the 2nd.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Also, Steve Bray had better get a very long look in the spring. He's done nothing but dominate in AAA and has been passed over for guys like McClung and Aquino, because they can throw in the upper 90's, but with little control.

 

In addition to Bray and Aquino, there are a few other guys within the organization who had nice years at AA and AAA and probably deserve at least some consideration for bullpen roles next year:

 

- Marino Salas: Exceptional job closing at AA, decent in AAA, but peripherals are just ok.

- Mark DiFelice: Fantastic out of the pen at AA, very nice performance starting at AAA, better peripherals. Doesn't walk anybody.

- Zack Jackson: Yeah, he was just ok as a starter at Nashville. No, his K/9 and BB/9 don't exactly blow you away. But it's looking increasingly unlikely that he will ever crack the starting rotation here and he's got to be close to running out of options.

 

I'm sick of patchwork, scrapheap bullpens. That was fine when we weren't competing but that just isn't going to fly next year.

The alternative, unfortunately, is probably to (way) overspend on lousy veterans. Ask Cubs fans how much they're enjoying Scott Eyre. If the bullpen has to be terrible, Melvin should at least make sure it's cost effective. The trick is not to get too married to the guys you find on the scrapheap when they exceed expectations. Get an effective season (maybe two) out of them before the league figures them out, then kiss 'em goodbye when they turn into pumpkins. Even if they have piled up a ton of saves in the interim (see: Derrick Turnbow). Under no circumstances give them large free agent contracts to retain their services.

 

Having said that, I do think they do need to come away from this offseason having either retained Cordero or found some other reliable guy to anchor the bullpen. The other Cordero is a pretty good suggestion. Maybe the Twins would part with Nathan and go with Neshek as their closer in order to save some money for Hunter or Santana. If not, maybe their new GM would be nuts enough to give up Neshek. In any event, it appears a massive bullpen overhaul is on its way. I don't exactly see that as a bad thing.

[TooLiveBrew]

It'll be really hard to move in any direction but up in terms of this bullpen for 2008.

[Roscoe Chill]

After doing a little more research on the salary outlook for next year, I'm thinking the Brewers will make resigning Cordero a priority, whether or not spending that amount of money on a closer is the smartest thing to do, I just don't see the salary issues the Brewers have had in the past...especially if you let some other guys walk (Chris Capuano?).

[TooLiveBrew]

letting Capuano walk would be a tragic mistake. It's been posted numerous times how his numbers are essentially better or roughly unchanged from the past two seasons. Poor defense and bad luck have been "his" downfall this year - heck, Melvin even said yesterday that he didn't think Cappy should have been removed from the starting rotation, as it had a trickle-down effect on our bullpen.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I spent a little time this afternoon trying to dig up possible 'scrapheap' candidates with good minor league peripherals this year and in previous years. I don't think many of these guys figure in their teams long-term plans, and several may be available this offseason as minor league free agents, at no cost. I hope that Melvin brings in a bunch of guys of this general variety and throws them up against the wall to see what sticks.

 

First, a couple of Yankees who look like they might be out of options and are fairly unlikely to make the team's opening day 25 man roster:

- Chris Britton: (Age: 24, throws R) Excellent minor league numbers three years running. Very solid in 60 ML IP over the last two seasons, though with a lower K-rate than you'd like.

- Edwar Ramirez: (Age: 26, throws R) K/9 has been at least 13, ERA below 2.00 last three years in the minors. Just dominating. Scouts may not like his build if the listed height/weight are anything close to accurate (6-3, 150. Man that's a skinny dude). Probably has an option left as he's only had 5 years in the minors.

 

Others:

- Eric Hull: (Age: 27, throws R) Dodgers' farmhand struggled with control issues in 05 and 06 before putting together a very nice year in 07: K/9 was 11.1; BB/9 was down to 3.6; ERA was 2.74. 6 years in minors, so should be out of options.

- Dan Giese: (Age: 30, throws R) Sept. call-up for the Giants has been excellent in AAA 3 out of the last 4 years. K/9 has been rising the last few years. Great control and seems to keep the ball in the park (0.25 HR/9 this year. Very impressive, especially if Fresno still plays in that ludicrously hitter-friendly park that made Pedro Feliz and Damon Minor look like such can't-miss stars).

- Winston Abreu: (Age: 30, throws R) Has been pretty bad in 34 ML IP for the Orioles and Nats, but it's tough to ignore his 06 and 07 AAA performance. Has always missed bats (10.8 K/9 lifetime in the minors, 14.1 this year). 1.20 AAA ERA this year. Seems to have by and large gotten a handle on the control issues that have hurt him throughout his career, but hasn't sustained his K/9 in the majors so far.

 

I know Grant Balfour didn't work out so great for the Brewers this year (not that he was given much of a chance), but I still think the best approach to building a bullpen is by augmenting a couple of proven quality relievers with a crapload of guys like him, who keep succeeding at AAA but don't get a chance because most Major League GMs still believe there is such a thing as a AAAA player.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for the work and info, BTTM. I have to disagree with you on the availability (but not desirability) of Britton & Ramirez. IIRC, those two were acquired as part of the Sheffield deal, and Ca$hman wants to keep the farm system stocked (& has for years, finally getting his way this year). The reason I doubt NYY would part with those two is the precise reason we want them. The other three candidates sound interesting, and likely to be available - though I am much less informed on the Dodgers, Giants, and Orioles than I am on the Yanks.

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

Thanks for the work and info, BTTM. I have to disagree with you on the availability (but not desirability) of Britton & Ramirez. IIRC, those two were acquired as part of the Sheffield deal, and Ca$hman wants to keep the farm system stocked (& has for years, finally getting his way this year). The reason I doubt NYY would part with those two is the precise reason we want them. The other three candidates sound interesting, and likely to be available - though I am much less informed on the Dodgers, Giants, and Orioles than I am on the Yanks.

 

They got Britton for Jaret Wright and $4 mil (another in a long line of brilliant moves by the Orioles). Ramirez was signed out of the independant leagues after the Angels released him (twice). Your more general point may be correct, however. I suspect the Yankees would like to keep them both. But I think Britton would have to clear waivers to be assigned to AAA next year (he's had 6 full years in the minors), and since it's the Yankees, who knows if they'll have the roster space. Ramirez may still have options. He's probably the longest shot on this list, but he's also the most attractive, and his poor performance in the bigs this year (8.38 ERA in 19.1 IP) may make him available. After all, how many chances do the Yankees tend to give a guy like him?

[And That]

All of these guys are free agents, and we should consider all of them, IMO:

 

Jeremy Affeldt COL

Jorge Julio COL

Joe Kennedy TOR

Byung-Hyun Kim FLA

Ron Mahay ATL

Trever Miller HOU

Rudy Seanez SD

Mike Timlin BOS

Luis Vizcaino NYY

Bob Wickman ARI

Jay Witasick TB

 

I'd especially like to see us go after Affeldt, Mahay and Seanez. I'd also try to trade Turnbow and something else for a decent, young reliever.

 

My main target this offseason would be Joe Nathan from the Twins. I was talking with some Twins fans at work today, and we came up with something like Bill Hall and Matt Gamel for Nathan. Joe is an awesome pitcher, and I'd love to see him if we don't get Cordero back.

[flosses like fossas]

as has been said before me, many good points here. my 2 cents...

 

- i think the crew will likely have a couple young guys getting shots on the opening day roster, most obviously parra, hard to say who else.

 

- i don't want to see the brewers spend the money to keep cordero and am neutral on linebrink, though it might not hurt to have a couple veterans out there. i do like the ideas of trading for chad cordero or trying to sign affeldt or seanez, but spending too much money on bullpen help is not high on my list.

 

- i hope to see the brewers invite a number of waiver claims, journeymen and career minor leaguers to camp. we've had plenty - if short-lived - success grooming guys in this situation (kolb, turnbow, etc.); i still have faith in jack z and DM in this respect. it's a cheap, expendable way to build a team and you've got to bank on someone stepping up. like TLB said "It'll be really hard to move in any direction but up in terms of this bullpen for 2008."

 

in closing, i'd like to note that i appreciate how well-rounded and interesting this thread is. people are really investing solid thought and commentary in it.

[EbbaStClaire]

In another thread I suggested looking at 'failed' starters like Kip Wells for the pen. He was throwing at 96 mph with a great looking breaking ball the other nite. There is an added bonus-he might be able to pitch more than one inning at a time. Also another choice might be Adam Pettyjohn who had a good year last year and does especially well against left handed hitters. Since he is a starter he to could pitch more than one inning and probably would be good in situations where thee lineup alternates left and right handed hitters. I am not a Wise supporter any more because he can't pitch more than one inning at a time or two days in a row. His only advantage is that he is cheap relatively speaking of course.

[Ennder]

The bullpen worries me but the usage of said bullpen means its going to be a weakness even if we fix it.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I agree with Ennder. While we were really let down by some of our relievers this year, many who pitched well were not used right and that hurt us just as much. If we could get a bullpen with a few more guys who could throw strike one it would really help. The way I see it we have to overpay for bullpen help at the possible expense of not adding any position help.

[Katuluu]

The problem with Nathan is he is going to cost a ton. If you are going to spend that much on a closer, then why not just resign CoCo? Neshek seems fairly close to untouchable as well, though with his recent arm problems he's a bit of a risk to boot. I like the idea of going after Crain, as he's on target to be ready for Spring Training, and shouldn't require us to trade a boatload of talent in return. But if we want to trade Hall, and the Twins seem like a great place to send him, I'd go after Perkins rather then Nathan.

[jeffy]

A couple of thoughts...

 

1.) I think some of Vargas/Cappy/Bush may be added to the pen, which would make the outlook a little more cheery.

 

2.) I think SD knew more about Thatcher than we did, we keep harping about Inman, but SD seemed more interested in Thatcher from Day 1.

 

3.) If Yost is in fact back in 2008, it really doesn't matter, he could use 8 pitchers and not one of them being the best reliever in a one run game.

 

I like the idea of putting some of the surplus starters, whoever they may be, in the bullpen. Why not have, say, 2-3 guys in the pen who can pitch 2-3 innings two or three times a week?

[Brawndo the Thirst Mutilat]

I like the idea of putting some of the surplus starters, whoever they may be, in the bullpen. Why not have, say, 2-3 guys in the pen who can pitch 2-3 innings two or three times a week?

 

Barring several trades, there's no question this will be part of next year's solution. The last few days I've been wondering whether it might not be the entire solution.

 

Note: There is no way a MLB team would actually go with the sort of arrangement I'm about to propose. They'd get slagged in the mainstream press before the season even started and absolutely destroyed whenever anybody pitching in relief fared poorly. Having said that, this would play to our organizational strengths, and assuming Yost is back, it would utterly prevent him from chewing the relief pitchers' arms up like he seemingly did this year.

 

The plan: No relievers. At least no 1 inning, 2/3 days types. 10-man starting pitching staff (with one in reserve for extras and injuries), arranged into 2-starter teams, like they sometimes do in the minors. Everybody on the whole staff pitching on regular rest. Pair the best starter with the worst "reliever", and vice-versa. However long the starter goes, it's up to his designated "reliever" to go the rest of the way. Call this my plan for the de-Larussazation of the modern bullpen.

 

Staff:

1. Sheets - 10. ??? (Pettyjohn? FA?)

2. Yo - 9. Z. Jackson

3. Villaneuva - 8. Vargas (CV squared - ha!)

4. Suppan - 7. Parra (Save Manny's arm a bit)

5. Capuano - 6. Bush (or vice-versa, possibly flip them based on favorable platoon matchups)

 

Feel free to change the 1-10 rankings of the starters based on your personal preference. Again, I know they're not going to do this, but I really wonder whether it might not produce the best results next year with the least financial expense and the least damage to our farm system (i.e. this requires no prospect for reliever trades, which I feel represent the most irredeemably stupid trade variety there is).