Turnbow yea or nay

[JohnBriggs12]

Last offseason there was discussion on what to do with Turnbow after he spent the entire second half imploding. Most posters on here wanting him back figuring he would find his command and turn back into the guy he was for most of 2005.

 

My take was you cannot let the same guy bring you down two seasons in a row. Make no mistake about it, this team could have won the division in 06. Turnbow was one of the biggest reasons they didn't.

 

Bringing him back next year should be out of the question after he's been a primary cause for this team missing postseason baseball two years in a row.

 

As for who replaces him? What's to replace? He's garbage.

[endaround]

I know people won't want to hear this but Turnbow is 37th in the league in Reliever's Expected Wins added with 2.862. Cordero is 33rd with 3.073. Getting a pitcher with better overall results than Turnbow won't be easy.

[BrewCrewForever]

I've always liked Turnbow and he falls into that "he is what he is" category. When he's on, he's lights out but when he's not, he's awful.

 

He's been mismanaged and continually put into situations that don't favor success for him. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

 

So to answer the question, I think Turnbow would be a fine option in the bullpen if he's used correctly. That being said, it's hard to have such speical circumstances around a MLB pitcher. You would basically need to enforce these rules:

 

Nobody on.

If he allows more than 1 baserunner, pull him.

 

Like I said, I like Turnbow and watching him melt down hurts me. Seeing him booed last night hurt me. That picture says it all. I just hope we don't turn it into a situation where he needs a "change of scenery" to start over.

That is how I feel about him. I just wish he wasn't put in that situation last night. When he isn't on you have to pull him. Spurling or Shouse should have been brought in when the bases were loaded.

 

[mark brouhard is number on]

here's the problem. if you have to bring him in at the beginning of the inning because he can't pitch when he comes in mid inning, i don't want him on the team. what kind of head case can't come in and do his job mid inning. what a joke. i have never heard of anyone being that lost

[endaround]

Actually lots of closer are like that. The Brewers have one who isn't, but they never use him in such a situation anyway.

[gregmag]

Used properly, Turnbow is a valuable guy. I agree with most of what Hall4President says, but I don't think Turnbow is quite that delicate -- he can work out of jams when he has his good stuff. The key seems to be not using him on consecutive days if possible, and I suspect he could even do consecutive days on occasion if you applied Hall4President's strict rules on the second day.

 

A good team has to be able to figure out how to use guys like Turnbow -- players with a lot of talent but also severe limitations.

 

Greg.

[sheethead]

I know few will agree with me,but i hated seeing that big crowd boo him off the field with such a fierce level of anger.Turnbow seems like a very nice guy,he just might be to emotional in some pressure situations when things start going bad,he can't keep his composure enough to allow for his mechanics to stay consistent.

 

I too felt bad for him. However, if you are going to take $2+ million a year to pitch, you need to be able to throw a strike on demand. Really, mlb pitcher making that much coin need to be able to throw strikes. If not, then they aren't all that valuable to the team. I like Turnbow, but my frustration with him is at an all time high. I think either Turnbow or Yost need to go. They are a nucleic combination. I would choose to keep Turnbow, simply because another manager would probably be able to use him properly.

 

Edit: It was quite apparent to me Turnbow was not going to be successful last night when his first two sliders he tried missed up, badly. That has historically been a telltale sign that Turnbow should not be pitching. That poor command was displayed to the very first hitter he faced, therefore it should have been the only hitter he faced.

[JohnBriggs12]

"I hated seeing him booed off the field"

 

That's what happens when a guy does what Turnbow has done the last two years. Statheads like endaround can point to statistics all they want but the fact is that fans have seen this before many times from Turnbow in the most key situations and it is burned into their memories. Worse than that, it's burned into Turnbow's head too and under stress he will repeat his failures.

 

It's precisely why he has to be moved. It's just as much for his benefit as it is for the Brewers.

[sheethead]

I think the booing was more for the fact that he was left in there to fail, more than it was directed toward his sucky pitching. That is what I hope in my mind anyway.

[rluzinski]

Statheads like endaround can point to statistics all they want but the fact is that fans have seen this before many times from Turnbow in the most key situations and it is burned into their memories.

 

Once again you call for a move to to satify the supposed "will of the fans". If the Brewers DFA'd every player that was booed at Miller Park this year, ther would be about 5 players left.

 

Until Turnbow is the worst reliever in the bullpen, calling for a guy who's already signed for next year to be DFA's is completely illogical.

[patrickgpe]

Turnbow is my guy i am sticking up for him. You guys can put out charts on his 10 bad outings this year, he has been in 77 games though. I know he has had some rough outings this year that weren't on the chart, but overall he comes in the majority of the time and does the work. Cordero has the second most saves in the nl and i will bet you that Turnbow has pitched the 8th fine in almost all of those saves. Problem is that when he blows up, its with the game on the line and it gets magnified. Do you remember the garbage that used to come out for us it late inning situation and everyone wants to blow him out of town, give me a break.

 

there i feel better now. I got it from everyone at work and my friends, and i am tired of it.

[valpocrewsader]

I think the booing was more for the fact that he was left in there to fail, more than it was directed toward his sucky pitching. That is what I hope in my mind anyway.

I have no doubt that the boos were entirely due to a 4-pitch walk to a .176 hitter ... with the bases loaded ... in a one run game ... in a pennant race ... after he had walked the previous batter to load the bases. There isn't a more booable performance-related sight in baseball.

[patrickgpe]

i looked it up, he gave up nothing in 62 / 77 appearances thats 80%. sounds pretty solid to me.

[PKBadger]

i looked it up, he gave up nothing in 62 / 77 appearances thats 80%. sounds pretty solid to me.

 

The problem is that the times he gives up "something", it's never just 1 run, it's 3 or 4 runs. And to ask the offense to dig us out of that mess with 6 or less outs remaining in the ballgame isn't fair to the team.

[pitchleague]

80% is good, sure. But a set-up man, I would think, would need to be stopping things at a 90% rate. And, as kegstand said, he shouldn't be giving up 3-4 runs in those instances.

 

If he only gave up 1 or 2 runs in those 20% of games, I might not be too upset and our record may be improved. But he didn't.

 

And, I, too, somewhat feel that the booing was aimed at Derrick AND at the coaching staff for leaving him in to fail.

 

Why didn't they have Cordero up again? So what if it was a non-save situation.

[patrickgpe]

looked it up again, he has given up 3 of 4 runs 6 times, with 6 outing 1 run outings and 3 2 run outings.

[patrickgpe]

80% is good, sure. But a set-up man, I would think, would need to be stopping things at a 90% rate. And, as kegstand said, he shouldn't be giving up 3-4 runs in those instances.

that would equate to an era less than 3, how many set up men can do that.

 

look at the league leaders in holds, it appears there is about 4 set up men in baseball that can say that.

 

so because he is not one of the elite set up men in baseball, people on this board think that he has no trade value and should be ran out of town.

[JohnBriggs12]

"calling for a guy who is under contract for next year to be DFAd is completely illogical"

 

Could you point just where in my post Rluzinski I said anything about DFAing Turnbow?

 

Not that guys who are under contract are never released. It happens all the time. Brady Clark wasn't technically released, but it amounted to the same thing.

 

It's not the fans that would cause Turnbow to go, it's him. He's proven that at least as a Brewer he can no longer handle the mental aspect of the game. Keeping him in the same surroundings where he has failed in such dramatic fashion so many times is asking for it to happen again. Turnbow suffered a mental breakdown in last night's game. He couldn't handle the pressure. He's shown this before. You want to rely on this guy again?

[patrickgpe]

going by the criteria for success that some have thrown out there

 

no runs 90% of the time

1 run 80% of the time he is scored upon

 

just to figure, i used 70 ip (turnbow actually threw 68 this year)

i calculated an era figuring that turnbow game up nothing 90% of the time (63 outings)

in 5.6 outings he gave up 1 run

and in the other 1.4 he gave up 3 runs

 

that would be an ERA of 1.26, then he is one of the best closers in baseball.

 

Its easy to spout out numbers but if you do the math, they seem unrealistic.

 

EDIT: i think i misread some posts, in my anger so the second criteria was never brought up, but my point is still there. Its the nature of the beast. There is simply not that many great setup men there, or else they would be closing.

[Brian the Automator]

I can't say yay or nay without knowing what acquisitions would be possible this offesason.

 

- Should Turnbow be relied upon to be a durable reliever who can close or setup? No. I'm come to accept the fact that you can't be a competitive team with a setup guy or closer who you can't pitch on consecutive days.

 

- Should Turnbow remain in the Brewers bullpen? Sure, assuming some either team won't give up something valuable for him. I still like the idea that he can come in after relieving a soft-tosser and blow some guys away with decent control on 1 days rest.

 

So, both yay and nay.

[iluvlamp]

I have hated on T-Bow hard but I do feel awful for him. Like some people said he may be useful in some situations. Clueless fans like to think that he is TRYING to do this and he's not. His head has to be squared away it seems. So to the question, I'd keep him and try to find a way to find his niche.

[mrbergmann]

Patrick, in your data analysis, have you taken into account the number of times that Turnblow walked or hit a guy or two (or three) and someone else had to bail him out, thus resulting in a 0-run inning for him, yet more work for an overused bullpen?

 

I ditto all those that say he can be back, but only if used effectively next year. Can Yost handle that??

[patrickgpe]

did not, my point was that set up men are not perfect, and if they were they would be closers. The majority of the time he gets through the 8th fine to set up Cordero, but when he is bad he can struggle. To want to throw him out of town is shortsided.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fan poll on JSonline is running about 85% against bringing Turnbow back. Fans aren't always right, but they got it right this time.

[jeffy]

His manager at that point left Turnbow out there to hang himself and we should all know he was trying his hardest not to walk Stinnett,he must have felt miserable after that walk.No way i'd have piled on to his pain by booing and jeering him as he walked off the field,that would have been saved by me for whoever was the guy who decided to leave him in when the obvious call was the make a change.

 

100% agree, Turnbow is far less of a problem than the dopes running the team who are apparently unable to make the obvious decision to remove Turnbow when he is struggling to throw strikes.

 

Is it possible that Turnbow has been overused? He is leading the team in appearances (among pitchers) and is tied for 9th in the league and 11th in MLB.