Prince's future and Boras

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

If they got Fielder locked up for the first couple years of free agency, that would give them a lot of ammo to do they same with others in furture years. These guys want to play for a winner. Showing a commitment to Prince would demonstrate that. If they did it with Prince this year, they could give Braun a similar deal in a year or two. They could really lock in a solid base for a good 5-6 years.

 

I don't know how Prince's body will age with that size of a frame. It could wear down his legs over time. He is so much more than the "masher" his Dad was. The guy can flat out hit. If he gave up a little power, he could be a .300 guy easy...not that I would suggest that, it's just he is that talented.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Prince's unique body type means there's anything but "tons" of examples,

 

Prince's body type also means it doesn't take too many individuals to make a ton. About 7 or 8 by my calculation.

 

Prince might well want to break the bank in four years, and if that's what he wants, there's not a lot that anyone can do to stop him. He may, however, be happy in Milwaukee...it's a young team with guys he's grown up with, and they seem to have a good bit of cameraderie. Prince seems like a pretty low-key guy off the field, too, so he might not be seeking bright lights and distractions. (I'm not really in a position to know, though.) So you can' t just assume he's gone...you gotta try to buy out a couple of FA years, but again it just might not happen.

 

The problem I have with saying that he might not age well is that he's only going to be 27 when he hits free agency. A six year deal means you have him for ages 28-33 or so, which includes prime years...history suggests that's just not that risky unless he has certain chronic conditions...even if he's declining at 33, he's declining from a peak that figures to be pretty darned good, and by that point you've already had the benefits of several prime years. He's a guy like A-Rod, who could well break the bank twice, with a monster deal at 28 and another big deal five or six years later. That second deal is the really risky one, IMO, but that's really a long way away at this point....I'm not quite ready to worry about the 2017 Brewers.

[JoeHova]

Actually Joe, if he puts on much weight at all, and/or starts having leg issues, he might have trouble playing 1B next year.

 

well sure, but that's the case for any player. If someone wants to say he may be more likely to have leg injuries, that may be the case, but we really have no idea. Look at all the offensive and defensive lineman in the NFL. There are plenty of big fat blimps who put in 10+ years while getting their legs chopped dozens of times a game.

[MoneyballMan]

I wouldn't put anything past Prince. Many people didn't even want to draft him because of his body type, let alone believe that he's become the youngest player to ever hit 50 HR's in a season. So, he's already surpassed (significantly) many people's opinions of him. And these weren't average Joe Fan types - scouts, GM's, real baseball people.

 

That being said, it may be too early to lock him up for 6-7 years. I think there's a possibility of doing 3-4 years (last year of min and 3 years of arby) that could be win-win (guaranteed $$ in exchange for avoiding arbitration). Then, depending on where he is (and where the Brewers are - LaPorta's situation for example) after 2008 and 2009 (2009 in particular), you could then address a new deal (extension, throw away the remaining two years and do a long term deal, etc.). This way you potentially could get him locked up through part of his prime. So, 2008 and 2009 as part of a 3-4 year deal now. Then rework 2010 and 11 into a six or seven year deal from there. Waiting to do the 6-7 year deal gives the Brewers some protection since they don't HAVE to do anything for four more years to keep him under our control. And remember, it's not like he's going to be making a few million in 2009 (first year of arbitration). If he builds on this season in 2008, he could potentially break arbitration records with his 2009 salary!

 

But isn't it great to speculate how we're going to keep this train rolling beyond 2010??? These are going to be some fun years.

[MoneyballMan]

Actually Joe, if he puts on much weight at all, and/or starts having leg issues, he might have trouble playing 1B next year.

well sure, but that's the case for any player. If someone wants to say he may be more likely to have leg injuries, that may be the case, but we really have no idea. Look at all the offensive and defensive lineman in the NFL. There are plenty of big fat blimps who put in 10+ years while getting their legs chopped dozens of times a game.

And do we really know what kind of shape he's in? If his weight comes from muscle and he maintains it, he may play until he's 45 for all we know. I almost worry more about these little string-bean guys breaking a leg sliding into home plate. Hardy and Weeks have had more injury issues to this point and the both could be on the cover of Men's Fitness magazine.

 

[monty57]

From all reports I've heard, Prince is out to prove all the critics wrong (i.e. those saying he's too fat, will be a DH, and will end up being a clone of his dad), and therefore has a Jerry Rice-like workout ethic. Nothing's certain, but that should definitely help keep him in "baseball shape" well past the ripe old age of 27.

 

When I mentioned extending him 6-7 years now, it seems some posters thought I meant to offer him an A-Rod like $25 million a year contract. That's what I would be trying to avoid. If Prince goes year-to-year, he is set to get a non-inflation ajusted $18-20M / year contract when he hits FA. However, he has to wait four more years to get that, and risk major injury during that time. His salary during that time would probably be something like $415,000, $5,000,000, $7,000,000, $10,000,000 or around $22M over the next four years, so figure an average of about $5.5M. If you assume he'd get $18M/year in FA, that brings his average up to just under $10M per year over the next six seasons.

 

Therefore, if we offered him a 6 year / $55M contract starting next season, we'd get him for six years at slightly under what he'd otherwise project to get, while insuring him that if he gets injured he'll still get paid... give a little to get a little. It's really the last year of pre-arby that makes this deal affordable. If we wait until after next season, the averages really go up, so I think now's the time to strike.

 

As for Boras, why wouldn't he go for this? It's pretty similar to Pujols' deal, and it ensures that his client makes a lot of money over the next six seasons and is still able to become a free agent while he's in his prime.

 

For the Brewers, Jenkins ($7M), Cordero ($5.4M), Mench ($3.4M), Graffanino ($3.25M), Miller ($2.25M), Koskie ($2M) and Linebrink ($1.75M) will all potentially off the books next season. Plus, they they set an attendance record this season, will likely be a playoff contender with high attendance numbers next season, and most of their arby guys other than Hardy (Capuano, Vargas, Bush, Aquino, Estrada, McClung, Spuriling and Wise) had less-than-stellar seasons and so shouldn't get huge arby raises. Therefore, they ought to have well over $25M to "play with" this offeseason. Lock up Fielder now, and let Hardy go one more season to make sure this wasn't a fluke before attempting to lock him up as well. Hart has been under the radar, and won't be out of arby (I believe) until he's 30... I'd probably take him year-to-year for at least another 2-3 seasons. Weeks needs to improve at the plate and vastly improve in the field before he should even be mentioned in the same breath as Fielder (unless it's in the same way Gantner is mentioned with Molitor and Yount). He's still got a pre-arby year left, and if he continues on the track he's been on, he's not going to be overly expensive in arby, or even as a free agent afterwards if we decided to keep him. Braun and Yo are apparent studs, and hopefully they "Super 2," so we have some more time before we need to start thinking about pay raises for them. They're both players you'd like to lock up long term as well, but for them long term is just a little further away. Re-signing Sheets and / or Cordero, well... there are a number of long threads on those topics.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

It's true they don't have to do anything now, they have him for 4 more years. But the longer they wait, the more Prince will just wait for the mega-deal and the Brewers won't be able to compete. I say strike now while they can still afford him. Lock him up for 6-7 years now. I believe the Indians took this approach in the 90's and were able to lock up some of their young talent a little longer and it helped them remain competitive for some time.

[clancyphile]

It's true they don't have to do anything now, they have him for 4 more years. But the longer they wait, the more Prince will just wait for the mega-deal and the Brewers won't be able to compete. I say strike now while they can still afford him. Lock him up for 6-7 years now. I believe the Indians took this approach in the 90's and were able to lock up some of their young talent a little longer and it helped them remain competitive for some time.

 

That approach makes sense, although I'd go for eight years, $68 million. That keeps Prince here through age 31. Once he's locked up, you can make the same sort of deals with Rickie, JJ, and Corey - maybe even working on one with Ryan in a couple of years.

 

That has "the core" locked up through 2015. If the Brewers continue to have a top-notch farm system, they will be fine.

[Thurston Fluff]

Actually Joe, if he puts on much weight at all, and/or starts having leg issues, he might have trouble playing 1B next year. I doubt that will occur, but it gets a lot more likely as he ages.

It gets more likely for every player as they age. At age 28 he stands about the same chance maybe less than other players. At his size it's probably less likely some thing like getting run over or slid into would do harm his legs more than a smaller guy. In the early to mid 20's collision type injuries are far more likely to cause leg problems than attrition injuries.

If you don't like the Reggie White example lets look at another freak of nature big man. Lets just say this one wasn't known for his conditioning practices. Shaq is a prime example of a big man who wasn't really fat. Though I think he's let himself go a bit now. He was league MVP in 2000 at the age of 28 and had plenty of productive seasons after that. If Shaq, a person who plays a sport much more demanding of the legs and knees, can do that there is no reason to believe Prince can't.

 

The guy I'd be more concerned about would be Hardy.

Hardy so far hasn't been as durable as Prince. He always seems to need a break for a sore back or gimpy leg or some other minor aliment.

[Fatter than Joey]

Shaq was never fat like Fielder.

 

When Fielder rounds third -- there is a lot of wigglin and jigglin

[homer]

"When Fielder rounds third -- there is a lot of wigglin and jigglin "

 

Muscles bounce when you run.....especially really big muscles. I'd bet Shaq's body fat % was higher than Prince's - although he has lost quite a few pounds in recent years, he was pretty rotund with LA towards the end.

[Invader3K]

Have you ever seen a picture of Prince, without the jersey on? The guy is ripped. He doesn't have a beer league softball physique as some seem to think.